000
FXUS62 KTAE 120719
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AT 2 AM EDT...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ACROSS LOCAL AREA WITH
STRATUS CIGS 1-2K. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY AROUND 70F. 24 HR TEMP/DEW
POINT COMPARISON INDICATES LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. WINDS NE 5-10 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS...THIS
PREVENTING FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
CONUS PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER ERN MOST
PACIFIC...A DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST
WITH INTENSE LOW OVER GREAT BASIN...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE NRN GOMEX. IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A MOISTURE PLUME FROM HURRICANE NORBERT
STREAMING NEWD INTO THE PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME, A WEAK H5 LOW WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE SE GA COAST. DRIER AIR ALOFT WAS FILTERING SWD
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS
CIRCULATION. TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY EAST SOME TODAY WITH DEEP LAYER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NE CONUS TODAY WILL TRAP THIS LOW AND SFC
TROUGH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST (SEE BELOW) FORCING THEM UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE AND SHUNTED WSW. LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT RETROGRADES SLOWLY
ACROSS N FL TODAY (WITH CWA ON WEAK PVA SIDE OF LOW)...THE ERN GULF
TONIGHT AND INTO THE WRN GULF ON MONDAY LEAVING DRIER AIR IN ITS
PLACE. BY TUESDAY...CONUS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WITH TROUGH SHIFTING
EWD INTO CNTRL CONUS NUDGING INTO ERN RIDGE WITH SUBSEQUENT
WEAKENING OF LATTER SYSTEM.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
DURING PREDAWN HOURS...LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.
DURING REST OF TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO
MID-ATLANTIC AND STRENGTHEN WITH RIDGING SWWD INTO SE CONUS. SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE ABOVE H5 LOW.
AS HIGH DROPS FURTHER SWD AND TROUGH MOVES WWD TO COAST...A
FAVORABLE WEDGE SETUP DEVELOPS FOR THE SE U.S. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH WWD DRIFTING H5 LOW WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO BREEZY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE MAINLY ERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY UNTIL THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES OVER CWA. BY
TONIGHT...THEY WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE WEST OF CWA AND WASH OUT WITH
DRY MID-UPPER AIR FILTERING IN. UNTIL THEN..EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS UNTIL LATE MON-EARLY TUES.
THIS REFLECTED IN AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS. I.E. GFS TAE WITH 1.40 PWAT
AT 12Z SUN UP TO 1.84 PWAT AT 06Z MON AND THEN DROPPING TO 1.07 PWAT
AT 12Z TUES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER. SREF INDICATES THAT LOW STRATUS
WILL DOMINATE CWA THIS MORNING...LESS SO MONDAY MORNING BUT THAT FOG
FORMATION AT NIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

TODAY...00Z AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 700 MB) DUE TO MODERATE E-NE FLOW.
THUS...LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WITH
LOCAL GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AND THEN SOUTH AND COVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. 20-50 PCT SW-NE POP GRADIENT. INLAND HIGHS FROM
NEAR 80 SE ALA/SW GA TO MID 80S SE BIG BEND. LOWS TONIGHT MID-UPPER
60S.

MONDAY...20 PCT LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CWA. LOCALLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY. INLAND HIGHS IN LOW-MID 80S.

TUESDAY...NO POPS. INLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER
RIDGING AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
PLAINS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD
THE EASTERN U.S. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS A SLOWER AND DEEPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS SOLUTION IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS FASTER SHOWING A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND A
COOLER DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN ON SUNDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTION. THUS...NO POPS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS HAVE BLANKETED THE REGION. SO FAR
VSBYS HAVE STAYED UP AS THE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS UNTIL JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THEN...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
WITH ALL SITES LIKELY VFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY
GUSTY UP TO 18KT THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN THIS EVENING AT ABY AND VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS INDICATE NELY WINDS 10-15 KTS/2-4 FT SEAS NEAR SHORE AND
15-20 KTS/3-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE...LITTLE CHANGE SINCE SAT EVENING.
EXPECT BOTH TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHORT RANGE MODEL
PROGS SUGGEST THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AND THEN INCREASE BY TONIGHT TO SCA
LEVELS INTO MONDAY AND PEAKING ON MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEA WILL
THEN SLOWLY DECREASE BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. NEXT SHIFT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO INTRODUCE SCA INTO CWF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  82  68  84  65 /  30  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY  82  71  83  69 /  20  20  20  10
DOTHAN       77  65  82  62 /  30  20  20  10
ALBANY       77  67  82  62 /  40  30  20  10
VALDOSTA     80  68  82  64 /  40  20  20  10
CROSS CITY   85  68  85  64 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CAMP/WATSON/BARRY