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000 FXUS62 KTAE 141909 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 315 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD TO OUR NE AND THE LOW CIGS WHICH DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT DHN AS OF 12 PM EDT. HOWEVER...A NEW CU/SC FIELD IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAIRLY STRONG NE FLOW OVER TAE`S AND JAX`S CWAS...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME BKN CIGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS THESE CLOUDS HEAD STEADILY WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCA CONDITIONS...AND THESE SHOULD HOLD AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST OVER THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AS THE STRONG STACKED RIDGING WILL KEEP ANY SENSIBLE WX AT BAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RAPIDLY WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THEREFORE... THIS LEAVES US WITH ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FCST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD RIGHT OVER THE CWA ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT...OUR DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO IN THE UPPER 80S...BUT LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO TONIGHT AND DIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ON WED NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NEAR CALM OVER THE INTERIOR. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ZONAL FLOW DURING END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO AMPLIFY EARLY FRIDAY AS A PERSISTENT STACKED RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN GA SHIFT S OF CWA IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY (AIDED BY UPPER SHORT WAVE THAT TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEAST DURING DAYTIME) AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LAST TWO MODEL RUNS DIFFER FROM 24 HRS AGO WITH MODESTLY HIGHER UPPER DYNAMICS AND A MORE POTENT FRONT CROSSING THE CWA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION NW-SE AND ACROSS CWA DAYTIME (NW HALF) THRU LATE NIGHT (SE HALF). MODELS THEN SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO REGION STARTING ON SAT WITH A COOLER AND INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS (NW FLOW) FILTERING IN SAT AND CONTINUING INTO TUES. SO EXTENDED WILL SHOW SCT POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...AND NIL FOR REMAINING PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO ON FRIDAY BUT DROP WELL BELOW CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS THEN INCH UP TO SEASONABLE TEMPS MON AND TUES AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY. && .MARINE...WINDS ARE SLOWLY COMING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH BUOY 42039 STILL REPORTING 8 FOOT SEAS...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. && .AVIATION...EARLIER EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF AND TRANSITIONED TO A AREA-WIDE SCT-BKN CU FIELD. CU BASES GENERALLY NOW IN THE VFR RANGE AND BASES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CU FIELD DISSIPATES QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LOWER CIGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS LATE...ESPECIALLY AROUND KABY OR KVLD...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING AS EXPANSIVE AN AREA AS WAS SEEN THIS PAST MORNING. AFTER ANY LOCALIZED RESTRICTION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DECLINE...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE INTERIOR OF THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS RH`S MAY VERY WELL DIP BELOW 35 PERCENT. WILL RE-ANALYZE AFTER THE NEW GRIDS AND CONSIDER IF ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. BASED ON THESE LATEST GRIDS...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR ALL OF THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE ZONES FOR WED AFTN AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR 4 HR DURATIONS OF 35 PERCENT RH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 60 89 55 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 PANAMA CITY 64 87 58 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 DOTHAN 57 88 53 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 ALBANY 57 89 54 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 VALDOSTA 59 89 55 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 CROSS CITY 59 89 55 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...FIRE WX WATCH ALL ZONES WED AFTN. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING ALL ZONES...AND UNTIL 11 PM EDT OFFSHORE ZONES. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA/GIBBS LONG TERM...BLOCK