Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
000 FXUS65 KCYS 162041 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 241 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2008 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER AT LEAST THE WYOMING PART OF THE CWA WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. IN FACT..THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE KARL AREA ARE ALREADY A BIT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THAT AREA UNTIL 00Z. IN ADDITION...SOME SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM KLSK TO KSAA AS OF 1930Z. THE ACTIVITY WAS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY MID EVENING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...FOR THE EAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL BE WARMING AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD STILL BE WINDY OVER THE WYOMING PART OF THE CWA BOTH DAYS. THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 10C OVER THE CWA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE PERIODS. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU... FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT FLOW ALOFT SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON WILL TIGHTEN UP MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE INTO TUE EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WILL STRENGTHEN WED. FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK THU IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COOLER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT POSTFRONTALLY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE. MON WILL BE COOLER AGAIN BUT SHOULD BE DRY AS MOISTURE IS QUICKLY WHISKED AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE BASED LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUE WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. WED WILL BE COOLER WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THU WILL BE DRY WITH MODESTLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE STRONG WEST WINDS IN THE WYOMING PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL PRESIST OVER MAINLY THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE TURBULENT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THOSE TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. ZONES 62..63..65. NE...NONE. && $$ WEILAND/JR
