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Introduction: Drivers of STD/HIV epidemiology and the timing and targets of STD/HIV prevention.

Sexually Transmitted Infections 2007; 83(Suppl I):i1-i4.

Aral SO, Lipshutz JA, Blanchard J.

First 150 Words
Since the turn of the century insights into sexually transmitted disease (STD)/HIV epidemiology and prevention have proliferated. Accumulating empirical data and mathematical modelling efforts interactively point to a number of grounded generalisations that enhance our understanding of the spread of STIs including HIV in populations. These insights have important implications for the design and implementation of prevention programmes: they can guide expectations around the magnitude and shape of STI/HIV epidemics in the absence of prevention and control programmes; they can guide thoughts about when to implement prevention strategies, which subgroups to target and how to define required coverage; and they can help interpret programme successes and failures.1

POPULATION-LEVEL PARAMETERS
An important generalisation is about the central role of population-level parameters in determining the magnitude and shape of STI epidemics. Whereas individual-level parameters may influence which individuals in a given population acquire infection, it is population-level parameters that affect the presence and prevalence.