September 1, 2005
Seasonal rainfall was above average in Tanzania’s southern highland grain
basket where above-average yields are expected. In addition, fertilizer applications also increased
in this region due to a
fertilizer subsidy program started by the government. However, yields
were below-average in central
Current production forecasts are largely based on field data collected from a recent crop assessment tour in northeastern Tanzania, and estimates released by the Tanzania’s Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MAFS) on May 25th. Corn area estimates from MAFS have increased by nearly two-fold over the past three years and correspondingly production estimates have been near record levels. Some traders speculate MAFS estimates may be high because local prices have not dropped and political elections are scheduled to be held in October.
A joint mission between
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and USAID's
FEWS NET Project conducted a crop tour in Kenya and northeasternTanzania
from June 23-July 5, 2005. In northeastern
Two WRSI (water requirement satisfaction index) relative-yield models are used to monitor Tanzania's corn crop: one for southern Africa (covering Tanzania's unimodal rainfall region) and another for eastern Africa (covering northeastern Tanzania's bimodal rainfall region). The majority of the Tanzania's crop production is from the unimodal rainfall regions. WRSI results for this region (shown below) indicate good crop conditions in the south and drier conditions in central Tanzania. These results closely agree with government reports and national rainfall data.
For northeastern Tanzania highlands, errors were detected for the WRSI model for East Africa (March-September) near the Arusha-Moshi region which is probably due to underestimated Rainfall Estimates (RFE) from NOAA. Further investigations are currently being conducted to rectify the WRSI errors for this bimodal region of northeastern Tanzania. The Arusha-Moshi region is difficult to model because it is where unimodal and bimodal rainfall patterns transition and RFE data from NOAA are often underestimated in highland regions. However, crop conditions observed on the ground were similar to SPOT-VEG NDVI anomaly imagery which is shown below or can be viewed in Crop Explorer.
SPOT-VEG NDVI Anomaly Image for June 10-20, 2005
Below Average Rainfall in February and April 2005
Kenya and Tanzania 2005 Crop Tour Summary (PECAD Update)
Crop Explorer (Tanzania- Northern Corn Region)
Crop Explorer (Tanzania- Southern Corn Region)
Daily MODIS (250-meter resolution) Satellite Images over Africa
Record Cotton Production in Tanzania (PECAD Update- January 28, 2005)
Historical Corn Production (1987-2005) in Tanzania
Historical Corn Area (187-2005) in Tanzania
PSD On-line for Official USDA Production Estimates
Agro-Ecological Zones for Tanzania
Unimodal and Bimodal Rainfall Regions in East Africa