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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
September 29, 2005
Commodity Intelligence Series
Persistent dryness in Ukraine and southern Russia over the past four to six weeks has resulted in significant delays in the planting of winter grains for 2006/07 and unfavorable conditions for the establishment of recently planted crops.
Surface-wetness anomaly maps derived from microwave satellite imagery indicate that moisture conditions throughout Ukraine are significantly drier than normal. Most locations in Ukraine's key winter wheat zone have received little or no precipitation since mid-August. According to Ministry of Agriculture data provided by APK-Inform, a Ukrainian commodity-analysis group, winter grains had been sown on 3.2 million hectares by September 23 (roughly 40 percent of the official forecast area), compared to 5.1 million by the same date last year and 5.2 million the year before. The planting delays do not automatically imply a significant year-to-year drop in final winter grain area. In 2002, for example, the planting of 2003/04 winter grains was only about 50 percent complete by September 23, but farmers were able to plant an additional 4 million hectares prior to the end of sowing campaign, for a total area of 8.4 million hectares. Factors other than weather will also contribute to Ukraine's final 2006/07 winter grain area, including low prices for grains relative to sunflowerseed, and the increasing popularity of soybeans. (Soybean area has expanded from 61,000 hectares to an estimated 400,000 hectares over the past five years.) Wheat comprises roughly 85 percent of winter grains in Ukraine, with rye and barley accounting for the remainder.
In Russia, the total area sown to winter grains on agricultural enterprises as of September 20 stood at 7.8 million hectares against 8.7 million by the same date last year, according to data from SovEcon, an independent commodity-analysis institute in Moscow. Wheat typically accounts for approximately 75 percent of the Russian winter grain area, rye about 20 percent, and barley about 5 percent. While the overall sowing pace is down only 10 percent from last year, planting to date in the key Southern District is down over 40 percent -- 1.0 million hectares -- from last year. Meanwhile, fall planting has progressed without undue delay in the Volga and Central Districts, the country's other major winter grain regions. The fall sowing campaign in Russia typically advances from north to south: winter grain planting in the Volga and Central Districts was nearly complete by September 20, but just beginning in Krasnodar and Stavropol, the two southernmost territories in the Southern District where the surface-moisture deficit is most intense.
Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available at World Agricultural Production Online or at PSD Online. Initial estimates for 2006/07 will be released in May 2006.
