For Release 10:00 A.M. EST, January 6, 1999 CB99-02 NOVEMBER 1998 NEW HOUSING SALES AT ANNUAL RATE OF 965,000 Sales of new one-family houses in November 1998 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 965,000 according to estimates released today by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8 (± 9) percent above the revised October rate of 897,000, and 10 (± 11) percent above the November 1997 rate of 875,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 1998 was $148,700; the mean sales price was $175,400. At the end of November, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale was 292,000. This represents a supply of 3.7 months at the current sales rate. Through November 1998 there were 823,000 houses sold compared with 753,000 houses sold during the same period last year. This is an increase of 9 (± 2) percent. New Home Sales data for December 1998 will be released on February 2, 1999, at 10:00 A.M. EST. EXPLANATORY NOTES This press release is available at the time of release through: 1. the Commerce Department's STAT-USA service. For more information, telephone (202) 482-1986. 2. the Internet at ftp.census.gov or www.census.gov. These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of the preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "3 (± 4) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (from -1 percent to +7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. The January 1998 issue of CURRENT CONSTRUCTION REPORTS, C25/98-1 includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 4 months to establish a trend for new houses sold. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised ± 3 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics. TABLE 1A. NEW ONE-FAMILY HOUSES SOLD: NOVEMBER 1998 United North- Mid- Period States east west South West Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1997 - November 875 93 167 389 227 December 805 73 163 362 207 1998 - January 853 78 153 402 219 February 878 93 196 353 237 March 836 94 173 350 219 April 892 92 156 409 235 May 892 99 145 380 268 June 919 79 165 436 239 July 877 72 151 416 237 August(r) 839 74 156 371 237 September(r) 843 73 178 375 217 October(r) 897 73 171 393 259 NOVEMBER(p) 965 88 172 432 273 AVG. RSE(%) 4 13 11 6 7 Not seasonally adjusted 1996 757 74 137 337 209 1997 804 78 140 363 223 AVG. RSE(%) 2 6 7 3 4 1997 First 11 months 753 75 131 340 206 1998 First 11 months 823 77 155 366 225 AVG. RSE(%) 2 6 6 3 2 1997 - November 61 6 12 27 16 1998 - August(r) 75 7 13 34 21 September(r) 68 7 13 30 18 October(r) 68 6 13 30 20 NOVEMBER(p) 69 7 13 31 19 AVG. RSE(%) 4 13 11 6 7 Number of houses in thousands. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. AVG. RSE(%): Annual - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the last two years. YTD - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the current period and the same period last year. Monthly - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the latest six month period(January-June or July-December). TABLE 1B. NEW ONE-FAMILY HOUSES FOR SALE AT END OF PERIOD AND MONTHS SUPPLY AT CURRENT SALES RATE: NOVEMBER 1998 Seasonally adjusted Not Seasonally adjusted Houses Months Houses for sale Months for supply supply Period sale (1) (1) United States United North- Mid- South West States east west 1996 (X) (X) 326 38 67 146 74 (X) 1997 (X) (X) 287 26 65 127 69 (X) AVG. RSE(%) (X) (X) 3 10 6 4 6 (X) 1997 - November 280 3.9 281 26 64 124 67 4.6 December 282 4.4 287 26 65 127 69 5.7 1998 - January 281 4.0 282 27 62 126 67 4.4 February 281 3.8 277 25 61 128 63 3.7 March 285 4.2 281 24 59 132 67 3.5 April 286 3.9 286 24 61 133 68 3.5 May 287 3.9 284 23 61 134 65 3.5 June 287 3.8 287 23 63 134 68 3.4 July 284 3.9 284 23 61 130 70 3.8 August(r) 285 4.2 283 23 60 131 69 3.8 September(r) 289 4.1 290 24 61 136 69 4.3 October(r) 293 4.0 296 25 64 138 70 4.3 NOVEMBER(p) 292 3.7 294 25 63 138 68 4.2 AVG. RSE(%) 3 5 3 10 6 4 5 5 Number of houses in thousands. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. AVG. RSE(%): Annual - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the last two years. Monthly - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the latest six month period(January-June or July-December). (1) Ratio of houses for sale to houses sold. Seasonally adjusted ratio derived from unadjusted ratio. TABLE 2. MEDIAN AND AVERAGE SALES PRICE: NOVEMBER 1998 Period Median Average 1996 140,000 166,400 1997 146,000 176,200 AVG. RSE(%) 2 2 1997 - November 145,000 175,400 1998 - August(r) 154,900 186,500 September(r) 153,000 182,600 October(r) 150,000 181,500 NOVEMBER(p) 148,700 175,400 AVG. RSE(%) 3 3 Dollars. Includes value of improved lot. (NA) Not available. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. AVG. RSE(%): Annual - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the last two years. Monthly - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the latest six month period(January-June or July-December). Source: Current Construction Reports, Series C25, New One-Family Houses Sold. C25 Reports are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. Annual subscription: $35.00. Questions or comments regarding these data may be directed to Dale R. Jacobson, Residential Construction Branch, Manufacturing and Construction Division, Bureau of the Census. Telephone: (301) 457-1321. The following data will appear in the tables 3, 4, and 6 of the November 1998 Current Construction Report, Series C25, "New One-Family Houses Sold." The data that will be found in tables 1 and 2 of that report are found in the above press release tables 1A and 1B. TABLE 3. HOUSES SOLD AND FOR SALE, BY STAGE OF CONSTRUCTION (THOUSANDS OF HOUSES. COMPONENTS MAY NOT ADD TO TOTAL BECAUSE OF ROUNDING) SOLD DURING PERIOD UNDER CONSTRUC- TOTAL COMPLETED TION NOT STARTED 1995................. 667 238 223 205 1996................. 757 275 254 228 1997................. 804 236 295 273 MONTHLY DATA 1996: JANUARY...... 54 19 17 18 FEBRUARY..... 68 21 21 26 MARCH........ 70 22 23 24 APRIL........ 70 22 27 22 MAY.......... 69 25 24 20 JUNE......... 65 24 21 20 JULY......... 66 27 21 18 AUGUST....... 73 26 27 20 SEPTEMBER.... 62 23 22 17 OCTOBER...... 56 21 19 15 NOVEMBER..... 54 20 17 17 DECEMBER..... 51 20 15 17 1997: JANUARY...... 61 22 20 19 FEBRUARY..... 69 23 23 23 MARCH........ 81 25 29 27 APRIL........ 70 21 24 26 MAY.......... 71 23 24 24 JUNE......... 71 19 30 22 JULY......... 69 20 26 22 AUGUST....... 72 19 28 25 SEPTEMBER.... 67 18 26 22 OCTOBER...... 62 18 24 20 NOVEMBER..... 61 18 24 19 DECEMBER..... 51 14 17 19 1998: JANUARY...... 64 18 22 25 FEBRUARY..... 75 19 26 30 MARCH........ 81 20 30 31 APRIL........ 82 20 32 30 MAY.......... 82 17 34 31 JUNE......... 83 21 31 31 JULY......... 75 21 30 24 AUGUST\r..... 75 19 32 25 SEPTEMBER\r.. 68 18 26 24 OCTOBER\r.... 68 19 29 21 NOVEMBER\p... 69 22 27 20 AVERAGE RELATIVE STANDARD ERRORS ANNUAL (PERCENT)..... 2 4 3 5 MONTHLY (PERCENT).... 4 7 5 9 See footnotes at end of table. TABLE 3. HOUSES SOLD AND FOR SALE, BY STAGE OF CONSTRUCTION - CONTINUED (THOUSANDS OF HOUSES. COMPONENTS MAY NOT ADD TO TOTAL BECAUSE OF ROUNDING) FOR SALE AT END OF PERIOD UNDER CONSTRUC- TOTAL COMPLETED TION NOT STARTED 1995................. 374 123 199 52 1996................. 326 101 185 40 1997................. 287 92 161 34 MONTHLY DATA 1996: JANUARY...... 370 122 196 51 FEBRUARY..... 362 120 192 50 MARCH........ 362 120 189 53 APRIL........ 366 119 195 51 MAY.......... 360 114 195 52 JUNE......... 355 113 193 48 JULY......... 351 111 191 49 AUGUST....... 342 106 192 44 SEPTEMBER.... 332 103 185 43 OCTOBER...... 332 103 186 43 NOVEMBER..... 330 101 189 40 DECEMBER..... 326 101 185 40 1997: JANUARY...... 309 97 174 38 FEBRUARY..... 296 95 165 37 MARCH........ 284 91 158 35 APRIL........ 289 91 165 33 MAY.......... 286 90 163 33 JUNE......... 288 89 163 36 JULY......... 289 88 165 36 AUGUST....... 284 87 163 34 SEPTEMBER.... 285 90 164 31 OCTOBER...... 287 91 163 33 NOVEMBER..... 281 92 158 31 DECEMBER..... 287 92 161 34 1998: JANUARY...... 282 86 161 35 FEBRUARY..... 277 85 157 35 MARCH........ 281 81 164 36 APRIL........ 286 80 168 38 MAY.......... 284 81 166 37 JUNE......... 287 77 173 37 JULY......... 284 75 171 39 AUGUST\r..... 283 74 172 37 SEPTEMBER\r.. 290 75 176 39 OCTOBER\r.... 296 76 180 40 NOVEMBER\p... 294 72 183 39 AVERAGE RELATIVE STANDARD ERRORS ANNUAL (PERCENT)..... 3 4 3 6 MONTHLY (PERCENT).... 3 4 3 4 p Preliminary. r Revised. TABLE 4. HOUSES SOLD BY SALES PRICE (THOUSANDS OF HOUSES. COMPONENTS MAY NOT ADD TO TOTAL BECAUSE OF ROUNDING.) NUMBER OF HOUSES/1 PERIOD 80000 100000 120000 150000 200000 UNDER TO TO TO TO AND TOTAL 80000 99999 119999 149999 199999 OVER 1995................ 667 58 101 99 144 127 138 1996................ 757 59 104 101 159 160 175 1997................ 804 51 93 103 173 177 207 MONTHLY DATA 1996: JANUARY..... 54 4 10 8 11 10 11 FEBRUARY.... 68 6 10 9 14 14 15 MARCH....... 70 6 10 9 15 14 15 APRIL....... 70 5 11 8 14 16 15 MAY......... 69 6 9 10 15 15 15 JUNE........ 65 5 8 9 14 14 15 JULY........ 66 4 8 9 14 15 15 AUGUST...... 73 6 11 11 15 15 16 SEPTEMBER... 62 7 9 8 13 10 16 OCTOBER..... 56 4 7 7 12 12 13 NOVEMBER.... 54 4 7 7 12 11 14 DECEMBER.... 51 4 7 6 10 11 13 1997: JANUARY..... 61 3 8 8 13 13 15 FEBRUARY.... 69 5 9 9 15 14 18 MARCH....... 81 7 9 12 15 19 20 APRIL....... 70 5 7 9 14 16 19 MAY......... 71 4 9 9 15 15 17 JUNE........ 71 4 9 9 17 14 19 JULY........ 69 4 8 9 15 15 18 AUGUST...... 72 5 9 10 15 17 17 SEPTEMBER... 67 4 8 8 14 15 17 OCTOBER..... 62 3 7 9 14 13 15 NOVEMBER.... 61 4 8 7 13 13 16 DECEMBER.... 51 4 5 6 12 11 13 1998: JANUARY..... 64 3 8 9 13 14 17 FEBRUARY.... 75 3 8 11 13 18 23 MARCH....... 81 3 8 10 17 20 22 APRIL....... 82 4 9 11 19 18 22 MAY......... 82 4 9 11 15 20 23 JUNE........ 83 5 10 10 18 19 21 JULY........ 75 5 8 10 15 16 21 AUGUST\r.... 75 4 7 9 16 17 23 SEPTEMBER\r. 69 2 7 9 15 18 18 OCTOBER\r... 68 4 8 9 13 14 21 NOVEMBER\p.. 69 3 8 8 17 17 17 AVERAGE RELATIVE STANDARD ERRORS ANNUAL (PERCENT).... 2 7 5 6 5 5 5 MONTHLY (PERCENT)... 4 22 14 10 9 8 9 See footnotes at end of table. TABLE 4. HOUSES SOLD BY SALES PRICE - CONTINUED (COMPONENTS MAY NOT ADD TO TOTAL BECAUSE OF ROUNDING. PERCENTS COMPUTED FROM UNROUNDED FIGURES) PERCENT DISTRIBUTION/2 PERIOD 80000 100000 120000 150000 200000 UNDER TO TO TO TO AND 80000 99999 119999 149999 199999 OVER 1995................ 9 15 15 22 19 21 1996................ 8 14 13 21 21 23 1997................ 6 12 13 21 22 26 MONTHLY DATA 1996: JANUARY..... 8 18 15 20 19 20 FEBRUARY.... 9 14 14 20 20 22 MARCH....... 8 14 13 22 20 22 APRIL....... 7 16 11 21 23 22 MAY......... 9 12 14 22 22 21 JUNE........ 8 13 14 22 22 22 JULY........ 7 12 14 22 23 23 AUGUST...... 8 14 15 21 20 21 SEPTEMBER... 11 15 12 20 17 26 OCTOBER..... 7 12 13 22 22 24 NOVEMBER.... 7 14 12 22 20 25 DECEMBER.... 7 13 13 20 22 26 1997: JANUARY..... 6 13 13 22 21 25 FEBRUARY.... 7 13 13 21 20 26 MARCH....... 8 11 14 18 23 25 APRIL....... 7 10 13 20 23 28 MAY......... 6 13 13 22 22 24 JUNE........ 5 12 12 24 20 27 JULY........ 6 12 13 21 22 26 AUGUST...... 6 13 14 21 24 23 SEPTEMBER... 6 12 12 21 23 25 OCTOBER..... 5 11 15 23 21 24 NOVEMBER.... 6 13 12 22 22 25 DECEMBER.... 7 10 11 23 23 25 1998: JANUARY..... 4 12 14 21 22 27 FEBRUARY.... 4 10 15 17 23 31 MARCH....... 4 10 12 21 25 27 APRIL....... 5 11 13 23 22 26 MAY......... 5 11 13 19 24 28 JUNE........ 6 12 12 22 22 26 JULY........ 6 10 14 20 21 28 AUGUST\r.... 5 10 12 21 22 30 SEPTEMBER\r. 3 10 13 21 27 26 OCTOBER\r... 6 11 13 19 21 30 NOVEMBER\p.. 4 11 12 24 25 24 AVERAGE RELATIVE STANDARD ERRORS ANNUAL (PERCENT).... 7 5 6 5 5 5 MONTHLY (PERCENT)... 22 13 9 8 7 8 See footnotes at end of table. TABLE 4. HOUSES SOLD BY SALES PRICE - CONTINUED (IN DOLLARS) MEDIAN AVERAGE PERIOD SALES SALES PRICE PRICE 1995................ 133,900 158,700 1996................ 140,000 166,400 1997................ 146,000 176,200 MONTHLY DATA 1996: JANUARY..... 131,900 155,300 FEBRUARY.... 139,400 163,700 MARCH....... 137,000 162,100 APRIL....... 140,000 170,000 MAY......... 136,400 163,300 JUNE........ 140,000 166,500 JULY........ 144,200 168,400 AUGUST...... 137,000 159,700 SEPTEMBER... 139,000 167,400 OCTOBER..... 143,800 168,400 NOVEMBER.... 143,500 172,000 DECEMBER.... 144,900 171,800 1997: JANUARY..... 145,000 171,900 FEBRUARY.... 143,000 171,100 MARCH....... 148,000 172,700 APRIL....... 150,000 179,500 MAY......... 141,000 170,700 JUNE........ 145,000 179,400 JULY........ 145,900 175,500 AUGUST...... 144,000 170,700 SEPTEMBER... 146,300 177,500 OCTOBER..... 141,500 172,900 NOVEMBER.... 145,000 175,400 DECEMBER.... 145,900 175,800 1998: JANUARY..... 148,000 178,600 FEBRUARY.... 156,000 181,600 MARCH....... 152,700 178,500 APRIL....... 148,000 176,700 MAY......... 153,200 183,500 JUNE........ 148,000 175,900 JULY........ 149,900 179,800 AUGUST\r.... 154,900 186,500 SEPTEMBER\r. 153,000 182,600 OCTOBER\r... 150,000 181,500 NOVEMBER\p.. 148,700 175,400 AVERAGE RELATIVE STANDARD ERRORS ANNUAL (PERCENT).... 2 2 MONTHLY (PERCENT)... 3 3 p Preliminary. r Revised. 1 Houses for which sales price was not reported have been distributed proportionally to those for which sales price was reported. 2 Total equals 100 percent. Note: The sales price includes the price of the developed lot. TABLE 6. MEDIAN NUMBER OF MONTHS ON SALES MARKET (HOUSES NOT STARTED ARE EXCLUDED. MEDIANS ARE COMPUTED FROM UNROUNDED FIGURES) HOUSES SOLD HOUSES FOR SALE MEASURED MEASURED FROM MEASURED FROM FROM MONTH OF START MONTH OF START MONTH OF COMPLETION NOT NOT NOT SEASONALLY SEASONALLY SEASONALLY SEASONALLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ANNUAL DATA 1995............... 4.3 (X) 5.3 (X) 5.5 1996............... 4.2 (X) 4.8 (X) 4.6 1997............... 3.7 (X) 4.9 (X) 4.3 MONTHLY DATA 1996: JANUARY...... 4.7 4.0 5.5 5.2 5.7 FEBRUARY.... 4.5 4.0 5.7 5.0 5.7 MARCH....... 4.4 4.3 5.8 5.3 5.5 APRIL....... 4.2 4.1 5.6 5.3 5.7 MAY......... 4.4 4.5 5.4 5.3 5.8 JUNE........ 4.3 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.4 JULY........ 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.9 4.9 AUGUST...... 3.4 3.6 4.4 4.8 5.0 SEPTEMBER... 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.8 OCTOBER..... 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.4 NOVEMBER.... 4.3 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.6 DECEMBER.... 4.4 4.2 4.8 4.8 4.6 1997: JANUARY..... 4.8 4.2 5.1 4.9 4.9 FEBRUARY.... 4.5 4.1 5.3 4.8 4.8 MARCH....... 3.9 3.8 5.4 4.9 4.8 APRIL....... 4.1 4.2 5.2 4.8 4.6 MAY......... 3.8 3.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 JUNE........ 2.7 3.0 4.4 4.7 4.6 JULY........ 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.7 4.6 AUGUST...... 3.1 3.4 4.4 4.8 4.2 SEPTEMBER... 3.2 3.5 4.4 4.7 4.2 OCTOBER..... 3.4 3.6 4.4 4.7 4.0 NOVEMBER.... 3.8 3.7 4.6 4.8 3.9 DECEMBER.... 3.8 3.6 4.9 4.9 4.3 1998: JANUARY..... 4.3 3.6 5.1 4.8 4.9 FEBRUARY.... 4.2 3.8 5.3 4.8 5.3 MARCH....... 3.6 3.6 5.1 4.6 5.8 APRIL....... 3.9 3.8 4.5 4.2 5.9 MAY......... 2.7 2.7 4.2 4.2 5.5 JUNE........ 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 5.3 JULY........ 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.3 5.1 AUGUST\r.... 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.3 5.2 SEPTEMBER\r. 3.5 3.9 3.9 4.2 5.2 OCTOBER\r... 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.9 NOVEMBER\p.. 3.5 3.4 3.9 4.0 5.2 AVERAGE RELATIVE STANDARD ERRORS ANNUAL (PERCENT).... 3 (X) 5 (X) 7 MONTHLY (PERCENT)... 10 10 6 6 10 p Preliminary. r Revised. X Not applicable. Source: Current Construction Reports, Series C25, New One-Family Houses Sold. C25 Reports are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. Annual subscription: $35.00. Questions or comments regarding these data may be directed to Dale R. Jacobson, Residential Construction Branch, Manufacturing and Construction Division, Bureau of the Census. Telephone: (301) 457-1321.