000
FZHW50 PHFO 160507
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
700 PM HST THU JAN 15 2009
HIZ005>011-161900-
OAHU-
700 PM HST THU JAN 15 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 20 TO 30 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 15 TO 22 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET...EXCEPT HIGHER ON
COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL...THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 6 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY JAN 21:
HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SURF LOWERING TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED JAN 14 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 WNW 18 16 22 UP 7-10 SW SAME
01/14 3 NNW 11 4 6 DOWN
THU 11 WNW 16 22 30 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 6 SW 6 2 4 UP MED
FRI 9 NW 13 16 20 UP MED 22-27 W SAME
01/16 6 WNW 17 12 14 UP MED
8 WSW 8 4 6 UP MED
SAT 11 NNW 13 20 26 SAME MED 17-21 N DOWN
01/17 5 WNW 15 8 10 DOWN MED
5 W 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
SUN 10 NNW 13 18 22 DOWN LOW 11-16 NE DOWN
01/18 5 N 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
MON 8 NNW 12 12 16 DOWN LOW 4-6 VRB DOWN
01/19
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF.
DETAILED...
MID WEDNESDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS RAPIDLY BUILDING...HIGH SURF
FROM 290-315 DEGREES WITH 16-24 SECOND PERIODS. SURF SHOULD RISE
INTO EXTRA-LARGE HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING SIGNIFICANT
BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE ABOVE UNDER SUCH
CONDITIONS REFER TO PEAK FACE IN ZONES OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION ON
OUTER REEFS. SURF HEIGHTS CLOSER TO SHORE RANGE FROM ABOUT 25 TO 50
PER CENT LESS.
THE WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPERIENCING A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM. SUCH A PATTERN CHANGES SLOWLY
AND GIVES WAY TO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HIGH SURF IN HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORMED LAST SATURDAY
OFF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM OCCLUDED NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY...MEANING THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATIONS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS RESULTS IN A QUASI-HALT
TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE AND A BROADENING OF
THE SURFACE CYCLONIC...OR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE GYRE. THIS GYRE...GIVEN
THE NAME ALEUTIAN LOW DUE TO ITS COMMONALITY IN THIS REGION DURING
WINTER...BECOMES A PARENT LOW PRESSURE...WITH SUBSEQUENT OFFSPRING
LOW PRESSURE AREAS FORMING OFF JAPAN THEN MERGING AND REINFORCING
THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE DATELINE ON ABOUT A TWO- TO THREE-DAY CYCLE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THE SERIES HAD SEVERE GALES TO STORM-FORCE WINDS
OVER AN APPARENT FETCH LENGTH LONGER THAN 1000 NM AND EXCEPTIONALLY
WIDE...ABOUT 900 NM...IN THE 295-315 DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII.
THIS ALLOWED GROWTH OF SEAS ABOVE 35 FEET AS VALIDATED BY THE JASON
SATELLITE ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAD OF THE FETCH OF THESE
HIGH SEAS WAS BEYOND 1500 NM FROM OAHU. THE LONG TRAVEL DISTANCE
RESULTS IN A SUBSTANTIAL DECAY TO SWELL HEIGHTS BEFORE ARRIVING
LOCALLY.
BUOY 51001 SHOWED A STEADY RISE IN THE LONG-PERIOD ENERGY OF 17-24
SECONDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY NOON WEDNESDAY...THE BUOY
MEASUREMENTS INDICATED THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST
FEW DAYS WAS ABOUT 4 HOURS FAST AND ABOUT A METER HIGHER IN
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. REGARDLESS...THE MORNING READINGS SPELL
EXTRA-LARGE SURF FOR OAHU FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT...YET REMAIN HIGH TO
EXTRA-LARGE THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 295-315 DEGREES.
HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND FROM A MIX OF SOURCES RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD OF WAVE
DIRECTIONS AND PERIODS ARRIVING SIMULTANEOUSLY...WHICH MAKES FOR
CONFUSED BREAKERS...STRONG CURRENTS...AND ELEVATED WAVE SET UP. THE
LATTER IS DUE TO THE HIGH FREQUENCY OF ARRIVAL OF SETS...NOT
ALLOWING THE WATER LEVEL NEAR SHORE TO FLUSH AS EASILY...AND GIVING
WAY TO HIGHER BEACH RUN-UP COMPARED TO REMOTE SOURCE...ORGANIZED
SWELL OF SIMILAR DEEP WATER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
THE FIRST OFFSPRING SYSTEM FORMED ON MONDAY EAST OF JAPAN. IT
TRACKED EASTWARD RAPIDLY WITH A MUCH MORE NARROW FETCH IN THE
290-305 DEGREE BAND OF SEVERE GALES COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.
WIND SPEEDS WEAKENED AS IT CROSSED THE DATELINE LAST NIGHT. LONG
PERIOD ENERGY OF 15-17 SECONDS FROM THIS SOURCE SHOULD RISE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND DROP ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS MERGING WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GYRE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD...BRINGING NEAR GALES
TO WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF OAHU BY THURSDAY. MOSTLY NEAR GALES
TO GALES ARE MODELLED IN AN AREA FROM ABOUT 400 TO 1800 NM AWAY FROM
OAHU THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER A WIDE DIRECTIONAL SWATH OF
280-340 DEGREES. THE PROXIMITY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH DEEP WATER WAVE
HEIGHTS OFF OAHU...ALTHOUGH DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE RANGE OF 11-15 SECONDS...SO RESULTANT BREAKERS SHOULD REMAIN
ONLY IN THE HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE RANGE. THIS SOURCE SHOULD PEAK
LOCALLY ON SATURDAY MORNING SLOWLY DROPPING ON SUNDAY YET REMAINING
HIGH...FROM MOSTLY 310-350 DEGREES...DROPPING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
MID MONDAY FROM 320-360 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO IS SUBJECT TO
FINE-TUNING AS IT UNFOLDS AND NEW DATA ARRIVE. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.
LOCAL BREEZES MID WEDNESDAY ARE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZES. LARGE
SCALE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY. SEE THE LATEST NWS
HAWAII STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE DIRECTION CHANGES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE...ROUGH
BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 210-250 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY...AND DROP ON SATURDAY.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONES IS MODELLED FOR FRIDAY OFF JAPAN...CROSSING THE DATELINE
LATE SATURDAY...AND RE-ESTABLISHING THE ALEUTIAN LOW. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF BUILDING
TUESDAY...PEAKING WEDNESDAY...AND DROPPING THURSDAY CENTERED ON
ABOUT 320 DEGREES. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS ON SIZE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED A FEW DAYS LATER SUGGESTING HIGH SURF FOR THE
WEEKEND OF THE JANUARY 25. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES.
HINTS OF A RETURN TO AVERAGE WINTER SURF...MEANING EPISODES PEAKING
IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE...AND MORE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TRADES
FOR LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE
SUBJECT TO SHARP U-TURNS.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE RESUMED ON FRIDAY...JANUARY 16.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER BIRCHARD AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 160100
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST THU JAN 15 2009
HIZ005>011-160500-
OAHU-
300 PM HST THU JAN 15 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 20 TO 30 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 15 TO 22 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET...EXCEPT HIGHER ON
COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL...THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY JAN 21:
HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SURF LOWERING TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED JAN 14 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 WNW 18 16 22 UP 7-10 SW SAME
01/14 3 NNW 11 4 6 DOWN
THU 11 WNW 16 22 30 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 6 SW 6 2 4 UP MED
FRI 9 NW 13 16 20 UP MED 22-27 W SAME
01/16 6 WNW 17 12 14 UP MED
8 WSW 8 4 6 UP MED
SAT 11 NNW 13 20 26 SAME MED 17-21 N DOWN
01/17 5 WNW 15 8 10 DOWN MED
5 W 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
SUN 10 NNW 13 18 22 DOWN LOW 11-16 NE DOWN
01/18 5 N 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
MON 8 NNW 12 12 16 DOWN LOW 4-6 VRB DOWN
01/19
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF.
DETAILED...
MID WEDNESDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS RAPIDLY BUILDING...HIGH SURF
FROM 290-315 DEGREES WITH 16-24 SECOND PERIODS. SURF SHOULD RISE
INTO EXTRA-LARGE HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING SIGNIFICANT
BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE ABOVE UNDER SUCH
CONDITIONS REFER TO PEAK FACE IN ZONES OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION ON
OUTER REEFS. SURF HEIGHTS CLOSER TO SHORE RANGE FROM ABOUT 25 TO 50
PER CENT LESS.
THE WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPERIENCING A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM. SUCH A PATTERN CHANGES SLOWLY
AND GIVES WAY TO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HIGH SURF IN HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORMED LAST SATURDAY
OFF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM OCCLUDED NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY...MEANING THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATIONS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS RESULTS IN A QUASI-HALT
TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE AND A BROADENING OF
THE SURFACE CYCLONIC...OR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE GYRE. THIS GYRE...GIVEN
THE NAME ALEUTIAN LOW DUE TO ITS COMMONALITY IN THIS REGION DURING
WINTER...BECOMES A PARENT LOW PRESSURE...WITH SUBSEQUENT OFFSPRING
LOW PRESSURE AREAS FORMING OFF JAPAN THEN MERGING AND REINFORCING
THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE DATELINE ON ABOUT A TWO- TO THREE-DAY CYCLE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THE SERIES HAD SEVERE GALES TO STORM-FORCE WINDS
OVER AN APPARENT FETCH LENGTH LONGER THAN 1000 NM AND EXCEPTIONALLY
WIDE...ABOUT 900 NM...IN THE 295-315 DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII.
THIS ALLOWED GROWTH OF SEAS ABOVE 35 FEET AS VALIDATED BY THE JASON
SATELLITE ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAD OF THE FETCH OF THESE
HIGH SEAS WAS BEYOND 1500 NM FROM OAHU. THE LONG TRAVEL DISTANCE
RESULTS IN A SUBSTANTIAL DECAY TO SWELL HEIGHTS BEFORE ARRIVING
LOCALLY.
BUOY 51001 SHOWED A STEADY RISE IN THE LONG-PERIOD ENERGY OF 17-24
SECONDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY NOON WEDNESDAY...THE BUOY
MEASUREMENTS INDICATED THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST
FEW DAYS WAS ABOUT 4 HOURS FAST AND ABOUT A METER HIGHER IN
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. REGARDLESS...THE MORNING READINGS SPELL
EXTRA-LARGE SURF FOR OAHU FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT...YET REMAIN HIGH TO
EXTRA-LARGE THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 295-315 DEGREES.
HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND FROM A MIX OF SOURCES RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD OF WAVE
DIRECTIONS AND PERIODS ARRIVING SIMULTANEOUSLY...WHICH MAKES FOR
CONFUSED BREAKERS...STRONG CURRENTS...AND ELEVATED WAVE SET UP. THE
LATTER IS DUE TO THE HIGH FREQUENCY OF ARRIVAL OF SETS...NOT
ALLOWING THE WATER LEVEL NEAR SHORE TO FLUSH AS EASILY...AND GIVING
WAY TO HIGHER BEACH RUN-UP COMPARED TO REMOTE SOURCE...ORGANIZED
SWELL OF SIMILAR DEEP WATER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
THE FIRST OFFSPRING SYSTEM FORMED ON MONDAY EAST OF JAPAN. IT
TRACKED EASTWARD RAPIDLY WITH A MUCH MORE NARROW FETCH IN THE
290-305 DEGREE BAND OF SEVERE GALES COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.
WIND SPEEDS WEAKENED AS IT CROSSED THE DATELINE LAST NIGHT. LONG
PERIOD ENERGY OF 15-17 SECONDS FROM THIS SOURCE SHOULD RISE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND DROP ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS MERGING WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GYRE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD...BRINGING NEAR GALES
TO WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF OAHU BY THURSDAY. MOSTLY NEAR GALES
TO GALES ARE MODELLED IN AN AREA FROM ABOUT 400 TO 1800 NM AWAY FROM
OAHU THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER A WIDE DIRECTIONAL SWATH OF
280-340 DEGREES. THE PROXIMITY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH DEEP WATER WAVE
HEIGHTS OFF OAHU...ALTHOUGH DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE RANGE OF 11-15 SECONDS...SO RESULTANT BREAKERS SHOULD REMAIN
ONLY IN THE HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE RANGE. THIS SOURCE SHOULD PEAK
LOCALLY ON SATURDAY MORNING SLOWLY DROPPING ON SUNDAY YET REMAINING
HIGH...FROM MOSTLY 310-350 DEGREES...DROPPING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
MID MONDAY FROM 320-360 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO IS SUBJECT TO
FINE-TUNING AS IT UNFOLDS AND NEW DATA ARRIVE. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.
LOCAL BREEZES MID WEDNESDAY ARE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZES. LARGE
SCALE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY. SEE THE LATEST NWS
HAWAII STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE DIRECTION CHANGES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE...ROUGH
BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 210-250 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY...AND DROP ON SATURDAY.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONES IS MODELLED FOR FRIDAY OFF JAPAN...CROSSING THE DATELINE
LATE SATURDAY...AND RE-ESTABLISHING THE ALEUTIAN LOW. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF BUILDING
TUESDAY...PEAKING WEDNESDAY...AND DROPPING THURSDAY CENTERED ON
ABOUT 320 DEGREES. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS ON SIZE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED A FEW DAYS LATER SUGGESTING HIGH SURF FOR THE
WEEKEND OF THE JANUARY 25. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES.
HINTS OF A RETURN TO AVERAGE WINTER SURF...MEANING EPISODES PEAKING
IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE...AND MORE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TRADES
FOR LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE
SUBJECT TO SHARP U-TURNS.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE RESUMED ON FRIDAY...JANUARY 16.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS BRAVENDER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 152045
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST THU JAN 15 2009
HIZ005>011-160100-
OAHU-
900 AM HST THU JAN 15 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 20 TO 30 FEET TODAY...THEN
LOWER TO HEIGHTS OF 18 TO 23 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS FOR
FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 15 TO 22 FEET TODAY...THEN
LOWER TO HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS FOR
FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET...EXCEPT HIGHER ON
COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL...THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY JAN 21:
HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SURF LOWERING TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED JAN 14 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 WNW 18 16 22 UP 7-10 SW SAME
01/14 3 NNW 11 4 6 DOWN
THU 11 WNW 16 22 30 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 6 SW 6 2 4 UP MED
FRI 9 NW 13 16 20 UP MED 22-27 W SAME
01/16 6 WNW 17 12 14 UP MED
8 WSW 8 4 6 UP MED
SAT 11 NNW 13 20 26 SAME MED 17-21 N DOWN
01/17 5 WNW 15 8 10 DOWN MED
5 W 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
SUN 10 NNW 13 18 22 DOWN LOW 11-16 NE DOWN
01/18 5 N 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
MON 8 NNW 12 12 16 DOWN LOW 4-6 VRB DOWN
01/19
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF.
DETAILED...
MID WEDNESDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS RAPIDLY BUILDING...HIGH SURF
FROM 290-315 DEGREES WITH 16-24 SECOND PERIODS. SURF SHOULD RISE
INTO EXTRA-LARGE HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING SIGNIFICANT
BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE ABOVE UNDER SUCH
CONDITIONS REFER TO PEAK FACE IN ZONES OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION ON
OUTER REEFS. SURF HEIGHTS CLOSER TO SHORE RANGE FROM ABOUT 25 TO 50
PER CENT LESS.
THE WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPERIENCING A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM. SUCH A PATTERN CHANGES SLOWLY
AND GIVES WAY TO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HIGH SURF IN HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORMED LAST SATURDAY
OFF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM OCCLUDED NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY...MEANING THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATIONS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS RESULTS IN A QUASI-HALT
TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE AND A BROADENING OF
THE SURFACE CYCLONIC...OR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE GYRE. THIS GYRE...GIVEN
THE NAME ALEUTIAN LOW DUE TO ITS COMMONALITY IN THIS REGION DURING
WINTER...BECOMES A PARENT LOW PRESSURE...WITH SUBSEQUENT OFFSPRING
LOW PRESSURE AREAS FORMING OFF JAPAN THEN MERGING AND REINFORCING
THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE DATELINE ON ABOUT A TWO- TO THREE-DAY CYCLE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THE SERIES HAD SEVERE GALES TO STORM-FORCE WINDS
OVER AN APPARENT FETCH LENGTH LONGER THAN 1000 NM AND EXCEPTIONALLY
WIDE...ABOUT 900 NM...IN THE 295-315 DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII.
THIS ALLOWED GROWTH OF SEAS ABOVE 35 FEET AS VALIDATED BY THE JASON
SATELLITE ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAD OF THE FETCH OF THESE
HIGH SEAS WAS BEYOND 1500 NM FROM OAHU. THE LONG TRAVEL DISTANCE
RESULTS IN A SUBSTANTIAL DECAY TO SWELL HEIGHTS BEFORE ARRIVING
LOCALLY.
BUOY 51001 SHOWED A STEADY RISE IN THE LONG-PERIOD ENERGY OF 17-24
SECONDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY NOON WEDNESDAY...THE BUOY
MEASUREMENTS INDICATED THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST
FEW DAYS WAS ABOUT 4 HOURS FAST AND ABOUT A METER HIGHER IN
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. REGARDLESS...THE MORNING READINGS SPELL
EXTRA-LARGE SURF FOR OAHU FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT...YET REMAIN HIGH TO
EXTRA-LARGE THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 295-315 DEGREES.
HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND FROM A MIX OF SOURCES RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD OF WAVE
DIRECTIONS AND PERIODS ARRIVING SIMULTANEOUSLY...WHICH MAKES FOR
CONFUSED BREAKERS...STRONG CURRENTS...AND ELEVATED WAVE SET UP. THE
LATTER IS DUE TO THE HIGH FREQUENCY OF ARRIVAL OF SETS...NOT
ALLOWING THE WATER LEVEL NEAR SHORE TO FLUSH AS EASILY...AND GIVING
WAY TO HIGHER BEACH RUN-UP COMPARED TO REMOTE SOURCE...ORGANIZED
SWELL OF SIMILAR DEEP WATER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
THE FIRST OFFSPRING SYSTEM FORMED ON MONDAY EAST OF JAPAN. IT
TRACKED EASTWARD RAPIDLY WITH A MUCH MORE NARROW FETCH IN THE
290-305 DEGREE BAND OF SEVERE GALES COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.
WIND SPEEDS WEAKENED AS IT CROSSED THE DATELINE LAST NIGHT. LONG
PERIOD ENERGY OF 15-17 SECONDS FROM THIS SOURCE SHOULD RISE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND DROP ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS MERGING WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GYRE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD...BRINGING NEAR GALES
TO WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF OAHU BY THURSDAY. MOSTLY NEAR GALES
TO GALES ARE MODELLED IN AN AREA FROM ABOUT 400 TO 1800 NM AWAY FROM
OAHU THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER A WIDE DIRECTIONAL SWATH OF
280-340 DEGREES. THE PROXIMITY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH DEEP WATER WAVE
HEIGHTS OFF OAHU...ALTHOUGH DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE RANGE OF 11-15 SECONDS...SO RESULTANT BREAKERS SHOULD REMAIN
ONLY IN THE HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE RANGE. THIS SOURCE SHOULD PEAK
LOCALLY ON SATURDAY MORNING SLOWLY DROPPING ON SUNDAY YET REMAINING
HIGH...FROM MOSTLY 310-350 DEGREES...DROPPING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
MID MONDAY FROM 320-360 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO IS SUBJECT TO
FINE-TUNING AS IT UNFOLDS AND NEW DATA ARRIVE. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.
LOCAL BREEZES MID WEDNESDAY ARE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZES. LARGE
SCALE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY. SEE THE LATEST NWS
HAWAII STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE DIRECTION CHANGES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE...ROUGH
BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 210-250 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY...AND DROP ON SATURDAY.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONES IS MODELLED FOR FRIDAY OFF JAPAN...CROSSING THE DATELINE
LATE SATURDAY...AND RE-ESTABLISHING THE ALEUTIAN LOW. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF BUILDING
TUESDAY...PEAKING WEDNESDAY...AND DROPPING THURSDAY CENTERED ON
ABOUT 320 DEGREES. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS ON SIZE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED A FEW DAYS LATER SUGGESTING HIGH SURF FOR THE
WEEKEND OF THE JANUARY 25. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES.
HINTS OF A RETURN TO AVERAGE WINTER SURF...MEANING EPISODES PEAKING
IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE...AND MORE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TRADES
FOR LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE
SUBJECT TO SHARP U-TURNS.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE RESUMED ON FRIDAY...JANUARY 16.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS BRAVENDER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 150459
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
700 PM HST WED JAN 14 2009
HIZ005>011-151900-
OAHU-
700 PM HST WED JAN 14 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 25 TO 35 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 25 FEET DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 15 TO 22 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 20 FEET DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET...EXCEPT HIGHER ON
COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL...THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY JAN 20:
EXTREMELY HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH SURF
WARNINGS FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SURF LOWERING TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED JAN 14 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 WNW 18 16 22 UP 7-10 SW SAME
01/14 3 NNW 11 4 6 DOWN
THU 11 WNW 16 22 30 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 6 SW 6 2 4 UP MED
FRI 9 NW 13 16 20 UP MED 22-27 W SAME
01/16 6 WNW 17 12 14 UP MED
8 WSW 8 4 6 UP MED
SAT 11 NNW 13 20 26 SAME MED 17-21 N DOWN
01/17 5 WNW 15 8 10 DOWN MED
5 W 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
SUN 10 NNW 13 18 22 DOWN LOW 11-16 NE DOWN
01/18 5 N 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
MON 8 NNW 12 12 16 DOWN LOW 4-6 VRB DOWN
01/19
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF.
DETAILED...
MID WEDNESDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS RAPIDLY BUILDING...HIGH SURF
FROM 290-315 DEGREES WITH 16-24 SECOND PERIODS. SURF SHOULD RISE
INTO EXTRA-LARGE HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING SIGNIFICANT
BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE ABOVE UNDER SUCH
CONDITIONS REFER TO PEAK FACE IN ZONES OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION ON
OUTER REEFS. SURF HEIGHTS CLOSER TO SHORE RANGE FROM ABOUT 25 TO 50
PER CENT LESS.
THE WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPERIENCING A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM. SUCH A PATTERN CHANGES SLOWLY
AND GIVES WAY TO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HIGH SURF IN HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORMED LAST SATURDAY
OFF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM OCCLUDED NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY...MEANING THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATIONS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS RESULTS IN A QUASI-HALT
TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE AND A BROADENING OF
THE SURFACE CYCLONIC...OR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE GYRE. THIS GYRE...GIVEN
THE NAME ALEUTIAN LOW DUE TO ITS COMMONALITY IN THIS REGION DURING
WINTER...BECOMES A PARENT LOW PRESSURE...WITH SUBSEQUENT OFFSPRING
LOW PRESSURE AREAS FORMING OFF JAPAN THEN MERGING AND REINFORCING
THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE DATELINE ON ABOUT A TWO- TO THREE-DAY CYCLE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THE SERIES HAD SEVERE GALES TO STORM-FORCE WINDS
OVER AN APPARENT FETCH LENGTH LONGER THAN 1000 NM AND EXCEPTIONALLY
WIDE...ABOUT 900 NM...IN THE 295-315 DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII.
THIS ALLOWED GROWTH OF SEAS ABOVE 35 FEET AS VALIDATED BY THE JASON
SATELLITE ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAD OF THE FETCH OF THESE
HIGH SEAS WAS BEYOND 1500 NM FROM OAHU. THE LONG TRAVEL DISTANCE
RESULTS IN A SUBSTANTIAL DECAY TO SWELL HEIGHTS BEFORE ARRIVING
LOCALLY.
BUOY 51001 SHOWED A STEADY RISE IN THE LONG-PERIOD ENERGY OF 17-24
SECONDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY NOON WEDNESDAY...THE BUOY
MEASUREMENTS INDICATED THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST
FEW DAYS WAS ABOUT 4 HOURS FAST AND ABOUT A METER HIGHER IN
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. REGARDLESS...THE MORNING READINGS SPELL
EXTRA-LARGE SURF FOR OAHU FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT...YET REMAIN HIGH TO
EXTRA-LARGE THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 295-315 DEGREES.
HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND FROM A MIX OF SOURCES RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD OF WAVE
DIRECTIONS AND PERIODS ARRIVING SIMULTANEOUSLY...WHICH MAKES FOR
CONFUSED BREAKERS...STRONG CURRENTS...AND ELEVATED WAVE SET UP. THE
LATTER IS DUE TO THE HIGH FREQUENCY OF ARRIVAL OF SETS...NOT
ALLOWING THE WATER LEVEL NEAR SHORE TO FLUSH AS EASILY...AND GIVING
WAY TO HIGHER BEACH RUN-UP COMPARED TO REMOTE SOURCE...ORGANIZED
SWELL OF SIMILAR DEEP WATER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
THE FIRST OFFSPRING SYSTEM FORMED ON MONDAY EAST OF JAPAN. IT
TRACKED EASTWARD RAPIDLY WITH A MUCH MORE NARROW FETCH IN THE
290-305 DEGREE BAND OF SEVERE GALES COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.
WIND SPEEDS WEAKENED AS IT CROSSED THE DATELINE LAST NIGHT. LONG
PERIOD ENERGY OF 15-17 SECONDS FROM THIS SOURCE SHOULD RISE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND DROP ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS MERGING WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GYRE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD...BRINGING NEAR GALES
TO WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF OAHU BY THURSDAY. MOSTLY NEAR GALES
TO GALES ARE MODELLED IN AN AREA FROM ABOUT 400 TO 1800 NM AWAY FROM
OAHU THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER A WIDE DIRECTIONAL SWATH OF
280-340 DEGREES. THE PROXIMITY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH DEEP WATER WAVE
HEIGHTS OFF OAHU...ALTHOUGH DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE RANGE OF 11-15 SECONDS...SO RESULTANT BREAKERS SHOULD REMAIN
ONLY IN THE HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE RANGE. THIS SOURCE SHOULD PEAK
LOCALLY ON SATURDAY MORNING SLOWLY DROPPING ON SUNDAY YET REMAINING
HIGH...FROM MOSTLY 310-350 DEGREES...DROPPING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
MID MONDAY FROM 320-360 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO IS SUBJECT TO
FINE-TUNING AS IT UNFOLDS AND NEW DATA ARRIVE. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.
LOCAL BREEZES MID WEDNESDAY ARE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZES. LARGE
SCALE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY. SEE THE LATEST NWS
HAWAII STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE DIRECTION CHANGES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE...ROUGH
BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 210-250 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY...AND DROP ON SATURDAY.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONES IS MODELLED FOR FRIDAY OFF JAPAN...CROSSING THE DATELINE
LATE SATURDAY...AND RE-ESTABLISHING THE ALEUTIAN LOW. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF BUILDING
TUESDAY...PEAKING WEDNESDAY...AND DROPPING THURSDAY CENTERED ON
ABOUT 320 DEGREES. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS ON SIZE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED A FEW DAYS LATER SUGGESTING HIGH SURF FOR THE
WEEKEND OF THE JANUARY 25. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES.
HINTS OF A RETURN TO AVERAGE WINTER SURF...MEANING EPISODES PEAKING
IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE...AND MORE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TRADES
FOR LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE
SUBJECT TO SHARP U-TURNS.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE RESUMED ON FRIDAY...JANUARY 16.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER BIRCHARD AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 150055
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED JAN 14 2009
HIZ005>011-150500-
OAHU-
300 PM HST WED JAN 14 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO HEIGHTS OF 25
TO 35 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL EASE TO
HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 25 FEET THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO HEIGHTS OF 15
TO 22 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL EASE TO
HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 20 FEET THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET EXCEPT HIGHER ON
COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY JAN 20:
ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. EXPECT WARNING LEVEL SURF TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LOWERING TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY FOR THE NORTH FACING
SHORES OF OAHU.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED JAN 14 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 WNW 18 16 22 UP 7-10 SW SAME
01/14 3 NNW 11 4 6 DOWN
THU 11 WNW 16 22 30 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 6 SW 6 2 4 UP MED
FRI 9 NW 13 16 20 UP MED 22-27 W SAME
01/16 6 WNW 17 12 14 UP MED
8 WSW 8 4 6 UP MED
SAT 11 NNW 13 20 26 SAME MED 17-21 N DOWN
01/17 5 WNW 15 8 10 DOWN MED
5 W 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
SUN 10 NNW 13 18 22 DOWN LOW 11-16 NE DOWN
01/18 5 N 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
MON 8 NNW 12 12 16 DOWN LOW 4-6 VRB DOWN
01/19
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF.
DETAILED...
MID WEDNESDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS RAPIDLY BUILDING...HIGH SURF
FROM 290-315 DEGREES WITH 16-24 SECOND PERIODS. SURF SHOULD RISE
INTO EXTRA-LARGE HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING SIGNIFICANT
BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE ABOVE UNDER SUCH
CONDITIONS REFER TO PEAK FACE IN ZONES OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION ON
OUTER REEFS. SURF HEIGHTS CLOSER TO SHORE RANGE FROM ABOUT 25 TO 50
PER CENT LESS.
THE WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPERIENCING A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM. SUCH A PATTERN CHANGES SLOWLY
AND
GIVES WAY TO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HIGH SURF IN HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORMED LAST SATURDAY
OFF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM OCCLUDED NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY...MEANING THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATIONS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS RESULTS IN A QUASI-HALT
TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE AND A BROADENING OF
THE SURFACE CYCLONIC...OR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE GYRE. THIS GYRE...GIVEN
THE NAME ALEUTIAN LOW DUE TO ITS COMMONALITY IN THIS REGION DURING
WINTER...BECOMES A PARENT LOW PRESSURE...WITH SUBSEQUENT OFFSPRING
LOW PRESSURE AREAS FORMING OFF JAPAN THEN MERGING AND REINFORCING
THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE DATELINE ON ABOUT A TWO- TO THREE-DAY CYCLE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THE SERIES HAD SEVERE GALES TO STORM-FORCE WINDS
OVER AN APPARENT FETCH LENGTH LONGER THAN 1000 NM AND EXCEPTIONALLY
WIDE...ABOUT 900 NM...IN THE 295-315 DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII.
THIS ALLOWED GROWTH OF SEAS ABOVE 35 FEET AS VALIDATED BY THE JASON
SATELLITE ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAD OF THE FETCH OF THESE
HIGH SEAS WAS BEYOND 1500 NM FROM OAHU. THE LONG TRAVEL DISTANCE
RESULTS IN A SUBSTANTIAL DECAY TO SWELL HEIGHTS BEFORE ARRIVING
LOCALLY.
BUOY 51001 SHOWED A STEADY RISE IN THE LONG-PERIOD ENERGY OF 17-24
SECONDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY NOON WEDNESDAY...THE BUOY
MEASUREMENTS INDICATED THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST
FEW DAYS WAS ABOUT 4 HOURS FAST AND ABOUT A METER SMALLER IN
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. REGARDLESS...THE MORNING READINGS SPELL
EXTRA-LARGE SURF FOR OAHU FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT...YET REMAIN HIGH TO
EXTRA-LARGE THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 295-315 DEGREES.
HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND FROM A MIX OF SOURCES RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD OF WAVE
DIRECTIONS AND PERIODS ARRIVING SIMULTANEOUSLY...WHICH MAKES FOR
CONFUSED BREAKERS...STRONG CURRENTS...AND ELEVATED WAVE SET UP. THE
LATTER IS DUE TO THE HIGH FREQUENCY OF ARRIVAL OF SETS...NOT
ALLOWING THE WATER LEVEL NEAR SHORE TO FLUSH AS EASILY...AND GIVING
WAY TO HIGHER BEACH RUN-UP COMPARED TO REMOTE SOURCE...ORGANIZED
SWELL OF SIMILAR DEEP WATER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
THE FIRST OFFSPRING SYSTEM FORMED ON MONDAY EAST OF JAPAN. IT
TRACKED EASTWARD RAPIDLY WITH A MUCH MORE NARROW FETCH IN THE
290-305 DEGREE BAND OF SEVERE GALES COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.
WIND SPEEDS WEAKENED AS IT CROSSED THE DATELINE LAST NIGHT. LONG
PERIOD ENERGY OF 15-17 SECONDS FROM THIS SOURCE SHOULD RISE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND DROP ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS MERGING WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GYRE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD...BRINGING NEAR GALES
TO WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF OAHU BY THURSDAY. MOSTLY NEAR GALES
TO
GALES ARE MODELLED IN AN AREA FROM ABOUT 400 TO 1800 NM AWAY FROM
OAHU THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER A WIDE DIRECTIONAL SWATH OF
280-340 DEGREES. THE PROXIMITY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH DEEP WATER WAVE
HEIGHTS OFF OAHU...ALTHOUGH DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE RANGE OF 11-15 SECONDS...SO RESULTANT BREAKERS SHOULD REMAIN
ONLY IN THE HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE RANGE. THIS SOURCE SHOULD PEAK
LOCALLY ON SATURDAY MORNING SLOWLY DROPPING ON SUNDAY YET REMAINING
HIGH...FROM MOSTLY 310-350 DEGREES...DROPPING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
MID MONDAY FROM 320-360 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO IS SUBJECT TO
FINE-TUNING AS IT UNFOLDS AND NEW DATA ARRIVE. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.
LOCAL BREEZES MID WEDNESDAY ARE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZES. LARGE
SCALE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY. SEE THE LATEST NWS
HAWAII STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE DIRECTION CHANGES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE...ROUGH
BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 210-250 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY...AND DROP ON SATURDAY.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONES IS MODELLED FOR FRIDAY OFF JAPAN...CROSSING THE DATELINE
LATE SATURDAY...AND RE-ESTABLISHING THE ALEUTIAN LOW. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF BUILDING
TUESDAY...PEAKING WEDNESDAY...AND DROPPING THURSDAY CENTERED ON
ABOUT 320 DEGREES. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS ON SIZE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED A FEW DAYS LATER SUGGESTING HIGH SURF FOR THE
WEEKEND OF THE JANUARY 25. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES.
HINTS OF A RETURN TO AVERAGE WINTER SURF...MEANING EPISODES PEAKING
IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE...AND MORE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TRADES
FOR LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE
SUBJECT TO SHARP U-TURNS.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE RESUMED ON FRIDAY...JANUARY 16.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 141905 AAA
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST WED JAN 14 2009
HIZ005>011-150100-
OAHU-
900 AM HST WED JAN 14 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO HEIGHTS OF 25
TO 35 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL EASE TO
HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 25 FEET THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO HEIGHTS OF 15
TO 22 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL EASE TO
HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 20 FEET THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET EXCEPT HIGHER ON
COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY JAN 20:
ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. EXPECT WARNING LEVEL SURF TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LOWERING TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY FOR THE NORTH FACING
SHORES OF OAHU.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST MON JAN 12 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 NNW 13 14 18 UP 4-6 VRB SAME
01/12 4 NNW 8 2 4 DOWN
TUE 6 NNW 12 8 12 DOWN HIGH 7-10 SW UP
01/13 3 N 8 2 2 DOWN LOW
WED 15 WNW 17 34 42 UP HIGH 11-16 SW UP
01/14 5 SW 6 2 2 UP LOW
THU 12 NW 15 24 32 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 8 SW 8 4 6 UP MED
FRI 8 WNW 16 16 20 UP LOW 22-27 W DOWN
01/16 9 NW 15 16 22 UP LOW
9 WSW 8 6 8 SAME LOW
SAT 6 WNW 13 10 12 DOWN LOW 11-16 NNE DOWN
01/17 10 NNW 14 18 24 SAME MED
4 WSW 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ACTIVE WINTER SURF PATTERN.
DETAILED...
MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 320-350 DEGREES
WITH 8-15 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY A
SHORT-LIVED...FAST-TRACKING...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT PASSED
ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF HAWAII EARLY SUNDAY. BUOY 51001 SHOWS AN
UPWARD TREND IN THE 13-15 SECOND ENERGY THIS MORNING. THIS EPISODE
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS ON
TUESDAY FROM 330-360 DEGREES.
THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS ENTERED AN ACTIVE MODE WITH A SOUTHERLY SHIFT
TO THE JET STREAM FROM JAPAN TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. THIS IS
LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF FOR WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
SHORES AND MOST DAYS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVE-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS FORMED EAST
OF JAPAN ON SATURDAY. QUIKSCAT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE OCEAN
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOWED AN
UNFOLDING FETCH OF SEVERE GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII. THE GROWING SEAS IN THIS DIRECTIONAL
BAND TRAVELLED AT A SIMILAR DIRECTION AND SPEED AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM...ALLOWING A CAPTURED FETCH OF OVER 1200 NM. THE WIDTH OF THE
FETCH HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS LOSS OF
SWELL HEIGHT AS THE WAVES LEAVE THE SOURCE REGION. THE HEAD OF THE
FETCH WAS ABOUT 1800 NM AWAY FROM OAHU ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING TODAY...RESULTING
IN A STALLING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 300-315 DEGREE BAND
FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO A REGION BEYOND 1000 NM OUT FROM
HAWAII.
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 19-21 SECONDS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY NEAR DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY FROM 295-310 DEGREES...WITH A RAPID RISE IN BREAKER
HEIGHTS
MID MORNING. SURF SHOULD REACH EXTRA-LARGE LEVELS BY LATE
MORNING...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN
THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO ZONES OF HIGH REFRACTION ON OUTER REEFS.
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR SHORE ARE USUALLY 25 TO 50 PER CENT LESS.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY CENTERED ON ABOUT
305-310 DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY DROP ON THURSDAY...YET REMAIN
IN THE EXTRA-LARGE CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW
RISE IN THE SURF IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
SEVERAL SOURCES ARE MODELLED TO CREATE SURF FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DATELINE FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO MID WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE TO SEVERE GALE WINDS AIMED AT
HAWAII IN THE 315-345 DEGREE BAND. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BUILD TO HIGH
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND HOLD INTO SATURDAY.
A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED EAST OF JAPAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER CAPTURED FETCH OF GALES TO SEVERE GALES IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND FOR MID MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE DATELINE AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SOURCE SHOULD ALSO GENERATE HIGH
SURF BUILDING FRIDAY AND DROPPING SATURDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF THE MULTIPLE SWELL SOURCES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDE
SPREAD IN WAVE DIRECTION AND PERIOD...MAKING FOR CONFUSED BREAKERS
AND STRONG CURRENTS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHT IS
ADDITIVE...THUS WHEN SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SAME
LOCATION...THE VALUES ARE COMBINE. THUS...EXTRA-LARGE SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID MONDAY FINDS LIGHT LARGE SCALE WIND FLOW ALLOWING LOCALIZED LAND
AND SEA BREEZES. GENTLE KONAS...FROM 200-240 DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...BUILDING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY...AND FRESH LEVELS ON THURSDAY. IN TURN...WINDSWELL SHOULD
MAKE ROUGH...CHOPPY BREAKERS BUILDING ON THURSDAY TO MODERATE
LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY-COMPONENT WINDS ON
FRIDAY...COINCIDING WITH A PEAK TO THE WINDSWELL FROM 210-250
DEGREES...AT MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS
ON SOUTHERN SHORES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOMETIME ON FRIDAY
WITH SHORT-LIVED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW LATE FRIDAY...WEAKENING AND
VEERING TOWARD NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
FOR NORTH- AND EAST-FACING SHORES ON DAYS OF WESTERLY
COMPONENT...FRESH OR STRONGER...LARGE SCALE WINDS...ACCELERATION
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DOWN THE SLOPES CAN RESULT IN GUSTS INTO
THE NEAR GALE TO GALE RANGE.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE JET STREAM IS MODELLED TO STAY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC INTO NEXT WEEK...
MAKING
FOR CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF WITH WINDS ROTATING AROUND
THE COMPASS WITH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS NEAR THE ISLANDS. MODELS
SUGGEST A MINIMUM IN SURF MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY DOWN TO MODERATE
LEVELS...THEN ANOTHER HIGH EPISODE BY TUESDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. SHORT-LIVED MODERATE TRADES SUGGESTED FOR ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO RAMBUNCTIOUS
RECASTING.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 14.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 141852
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST WED JAN 14 2009
HIZ005>011-150100-
OAHU-
900 AM HST WED JAN 14 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO HEIGHTS OF 25
TO 35 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL EASE TO
HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 25 FEET THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO HEIGHTS OF 15
TO 22 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL EASE TO
HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET EXCEPT HIGHER ON
COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY JAN 20:
ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. EXPECT WARNING LEVEL SURF TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LOWERING TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY FOR THE NORTH FACING
SHORES OF OAHU.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST MON JAN 12 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 NNW 13 14 18 UP 4-6 VRB SAME
01/12 4 NNW 8 2 4 DOWN
TUE 6 NNW 12 8 12 DOWN HIGH 7-10 SW UP
01/13 3 N 8 2 2 DOWN LOW
WED 15 WNW 17 34 42 UP HIGH 11-16 SW UP
01/14 5 SW 6 2 2 UP LOW
THU 12 NW 15 24 32 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 8 SW 8 4 6 UP MED
FRI 8 WNW 16 16 20 UP LOW 22-27 W DOWN
01/16 9 NW 15 16 22 UP LOW
9 WSW 8 6 8 SAME LOW
SAT 6 WNW 13 10 12 DOWN LOW 11-16 NNE DOWN
01/17 10 NNW 14 18 24 SAME MED
4 WSW 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ACTIVE WINTER SURF PATTERN.
DETAILED...
MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 320-350 DEGREES
WITH 8-15 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY A
SHORT-LIVED...FAST-TRACKING...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT PASSED
ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF HAWAII EARLY SUNDAY. BUOY 51001 SHOWS AN
UPWARD TREND IN THE 13-15 SECOND ENERGY THIS MORNING. THIS EPISODE
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS ON
TUESDAY FROM 330-360 DEGREES.
THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS ENTERED AN ACTIVE MODE WITH A SOUTHERLY SHIFT
TO THE JET STREAM FROM JAPAN TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. THIS IS
LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF FOR WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
SHORES AND MOST DAYS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVE-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS FORMED EAST
OF JAPAN ON SATURDAY. QUIKSCAT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE OCEAN
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOWED AN
UNFOLDING FETCH OF SEVERE GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII. THE GROWING SEAS IN THIS DIRECTIONAL
BAND TRAVELLED AT A SIMILAR DIRECTION AND SPEED AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM...ALLOWING A CAPTURED FETCH OF OVER 1200 NM. THE WIDTH OF THE
FETCH HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS LOSS OF
SWELL HEIGHT AS THE WAVES LEAVE THE SOURCE REGION. THE HEAD OF THE
FETCH WAS ABOUT 1800 NM AWAY FROM OAHU ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING TODAY...RESULTING
IN A STALLING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 300-315 DEGREE BAND
FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO A REGION BEYOND 1000 NM OUT FROM
HAWAII.
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 19-21 SECONDS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY NEAR DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY FROM 295-310 DEGREES...WITH A RAPID RISE IN BREAKER
HEIGHTS
MID MORNING. SURF SHOULD REACH EXTRA-LARGE LEVELS BY LATE
MORNING...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN
THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO ZONES OF HIGH REFRACTION ON OUTER REEFS.
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR SHORE ARE USUALLY 25 TO 50 PER CENT LESS.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY CENTERED ON ABOUT
305-310 DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY DROP ON THURSDAY...YET REMAIN
IN THE EXTRA-LARGE CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW
RISE IN THE SURF IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
SEVERAL SOURCES ARE MODELLED TO CREATE SURF FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DATELINE FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO MID WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE TO SEVERE GALE WINDS AIMED AT
HAWAII IN THE 315-345 DEGREE BAND. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BUILD TO HIGH
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND HOLD INTO SATURDAY.
A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED EAST OF JAPAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER CAPTURED FETCH OF GALES TO SEVERE GALES IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND FOR MID MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE DATELINE AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SOURCE SHOULD ALSO GENERATE HIGH
SURF BUILDING FRIDAY AND DROPPING SATURDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF THE MULTIPLE SWELL SOURCES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDE
SPREAD IN WAVE DIRECTION AND PERIOD...MAKING FOR CONFUSED BREAKERS
AND STRONG CURRENTS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHT IS
ADDITIVE...THUS WHEN SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SAME
LOCATION...THE VALUES ARE COMBINE. THUS...EXTRA-LARGE SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID MONDAY FINDS LIGHT LARGE SCALE WIND FLOW ALLOWING LOCALIZED LAND
AND SEA BREEZES. GENTLE KONAS...FROM 200-240 DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...BUILDING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY...AND FRESH LEVELS ON THURSDAY. IN TURN...WINDSWELL SHOULD
MAKE ROUGH...CHOPPY BREAKERS BUILDING ON THURSDAY TO MODERATE
LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY-COMPONENT WINDS ON
FRIDAY...COINCIDING WITH A PEAK TO THE WINDSWELL FROM 210-250
DEGREES...AT MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS
ON SOUTHERN SHORES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOMETIME ON FRIDAY
WITH SHORT-LIVED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW LATE FRIDAY...WEAKENING AND
VEERING TOWARD NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
FOR NORTH- AND EAST-FACING SHORES ON DAYS OF WESTERLY
COMPONENT...FRESH OR STRONGER...LARGE SCALE WINDS...ACCELERATION
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DOWN THE SLOPES CAN RESULT IN GUSTS INTO
THE NEAR GALE TO GALE RANGE.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE JET STREAM IS MODELLED TO STAY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC INTO NEXT WEEK...
MAKING
FOR CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF WITH WINDS ROTATING AROUND
THE COMPASS WITH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS NEAR THE ISLANDS. MODELS
SUGGEST A MINIMUM IN SURF MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY DOWN TO MODERATE
LEVELS...THEN ANOTHER HIGH EPISODE BY TUESDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. SHORT-LIVED MODERATE TRADES SUGGESTED FOR ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO RAMBUNCTIOUS
RECASTING.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 14.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 140500
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
700 PM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
HIZ005>011-141900-
OAHU-
700 PM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR BUILDING SURF
WEDNESDAY ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE RISING RAPIDLY TO 30 TO 35
FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE RISING RAPIDLY TO 12 TO 22
FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET EXCEPT HIGHER ON
COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL WEDNESDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY JAN 19:
THE VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS SLATED TO IMPACT OAHU WITH SURF
RISING TO ABOVE WARNING LEVELS OF 25 AND 20 FEET FOR THE NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES RESPECTIVELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL
WILL BE PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT WARNING LEVEL SURF
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LOWERING TO BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY FOR THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST MON JAN 12 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 NNW 13 14 18 UP 4-6 VRB SAME
01/12 4 NNW 8 2 4 DOWN
TUE 6 NNW 12 8 12 DOWN HIGH 7-10 SW UP
01/13 3 N 8 2 2 DOWN LOW
WED 15 WNW 17 34 42 UP HIGH 11-16 SW UP
01/14 5 SW 6 2 2 UP LOW
THU 12 NW 15 24 32 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 8 SW 8 4 6 UP MED
FRI 8 WNW 16 16 20 UP LOW 22-27 W DOWN
01/16 9 NW 15 16 22 UP LOW
9 WSW 8 6 8 SAME LOW
SAT 6 WNW 13 10 12 DOWN LOW 11-16 NNE DOWN
01/17 10 NNW 14 18 24 SAME MED
4 WSW 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ACTIVE WINTER SURF PATTERN.
DETAILED...
MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 320-350 DEGREES
WITH 8-15 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY A
SHORT-LIVED...FAST-TRACKING...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT PASSED
ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF HAWAII EARLY SUNDAY. BUOY 51001 SHOWS AN
UPWARD TREND IN THE 13-15 SECOND ENERGY THIS MORNING. THIS EPISODE
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS ON
TUESDAY FROM 330-360 DEGREES.
THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS ENTERED AN ACTIVE MODE WITH A SOUTHERLY SHIFT
TO THE JET STREAM FROM JAPAN TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. THIS IS
LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF FOR WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
SHORES AND MOST DAYS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVE-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS FORMED EAST
OF JAPAN ON SATURDAY. QUIKSCAT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE OCEAN
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOWED AN
UNFOLDING FETCH OF SEVERE GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII. THE GROWING SEAS IN THIS DIRECTIONAL
BAND TRAVELLED AT A SIMILAR DIRECTION AND SPEED AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM...ALLOWING A CAPTURED FETCH OF OVER 1200 NM. THE WIDTH OF THE
FETCH HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS LOSS OF
SWELL HEIGHT AS THE WAVES LEAVE THE SOURCE REGION. THE HEAD OF THE
FETCH WAS ABOUT 1800 NM AWAY FROM OAHU ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING TODAY...RESULTING
IN A STALLING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 300-315 DEGREE BAND
FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO A REGION BEYOND 1000 NM OUT FROM
HAWAII.
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 19-21 SECONDS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY NEAR DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY FROM 295-310 DEGREES...WITH A RAPID RISE IN BREAKER
HEIGHTS
MID MORNING. SURF SHOULD REACH EXTRA-LARGE LEVELS BY LATE
MORNING...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN
THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO ZONES OF HIGH REFRACTION ON OUTER REEFS.
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR SHORE ARE USUALLY 25 TO 50 PER CENT LESS.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY CENTERED ON ABOUT
305-310 DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY DROP ON THURSDAY...YET REMAIN
IN THE EXTRA-LARGE CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW
RISE IN THE SURF IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
SEVERAL SOURCES ARE MODELLED TO CREATE SURF FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DATELINE FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO MID WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE TO SEVERE GALE WINDS AIMED AT
HAWAII IN THE 315-345 DEGREE BAND. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BUILD TO HIGH
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND HOLD INTO SATURDAY.
A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED EAST OF JAPAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER CAPTURED FETCH OF GALES TO SEVERE GALES IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND FOR MID MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE DATELINE AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SOURCE SHOULD ALSO GENERATE HIGH
SURF BUILDING FRIDAY AND DROPPING SATURDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF THE MULTIPLE SWELL SOURCES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDE
SPREAD IN WAVE DIRECTION AND PERIOD...MAKING FOR CONFUSED BREAKERS
AND STRONG CURRENTS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHT IS
ADDITIVE...THUS WHEN SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SAME
LOCATION...THE VALUES ARE COMBINE. THUS...EXTRA-LARGE SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID MONDAY FINDS LIGHT LARGE SCALE WIND FLOW ALLOWING LOCALIZED LAND
AND SEA BREEZES. GENTLE KONAS...FROM 200-240 DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...BUILDING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY...AND FRESH LEVELS ON THURSDAY. IN TURN...WINDSWELL SHOULD
MAKE ROUGH...CHOPPY BREAKERS BUILDING ON THURSDAY TO MODERATE
LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY-COMPONENT WINDS ON
FRIDAY...COINCIDING WITH A PEAK TO THE WINDSWELL FROM 210-250
DEGREES...AT MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS
ON SOUTHERN SHORES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOMETIME ON FRIDAY
WITH SHORT-LIVED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW LATE FRIDAY...WEAKENING AND
VEERING TOWARD NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
FOR NORTH- AND EAST-FACING SHORES ON DAYS OF WESTERLY
COMPONENT...FRESH OR STRONGER...LARGE SCALE WINDS...ACCELERATION
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DOWN THE SLOPES CAN RESULT IN GUSTS INTO
THE NEAR GALE TO GALE RANGE.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE JET STREAM IS MODELLED TO STAY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC INTO NEXT WEEK...
MAKING
FOR CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF WITH WINDS ROTATING AROUND
THE COMPASS WITH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS NEAR THE ISLANDS. MODELS
SUGGEST A MINIMUM IN SURF MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY DOWN TO MODERATE
LEVELS...THEN ANOTHER HIGH EPISODE BY TUESDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. SHORT-LIVED MODERATE TRADES SUGGESTED FOR ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO RAMBUNCTIOUS
RECASTING.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 14.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 140500
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
700 PM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
HIZ005>011-141900-
OAHU-
700 PM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR BUILDING SURF
WEDNESDAY ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE RISING RAPIDLY TO 30 TO 35
FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE RISING RAPIDLY TO 12 TO 22
FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET EXCEPT HIGHER ON
COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL WEDNESDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY JAN 19:
THE VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS SLATED TO IMPACT OAHU WITH SURF
RISING TO ABOVE WARNING LEVELS OF 25 AND 20 FEET FOR THE NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES RESPECTIVELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL
WILL BE PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT WARNING LEVEL SURF
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LOWERING TO BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY FOR THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST MON JAN 12 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 NNW 13 14 18 UP 4-6 VRB SAME
01/12 4 NNW 8 2 4 DOWN
TUE 6 NNW 12 8 12 DOWN HIGH 7-10 SW UP
01/13 3 N 8 2 2 DOWN LOW
WED 15 WNW 17 34 42 UP HIGH 11-16 SW UP
01/14 5 SW 6 2 2 UP LOW
THU 12 NW 15 24 32 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 8 SW 8 4 6 UP MED
FRI 8 WNW 16 16 20 UP LOW 22-27 W DOWN
01/16 9 NW 15 16 22 UP LOW
9 WSW 8 6 8 SAME LOW
SAT 6 WNW 13 10 12 DOWN LOW 11-16 NNE DOWN
01/17 10 NNW 14 18 24 SAME MED
4 WSW 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ACTIVE WINTER SURF PATTERN.
DETAILED...
MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 320-350 DEGREES
WITH 8-15 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY A
SHORT-LIVED...FAST-TRACKING...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT PASSED
ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF HAWAII EARLY SUNDAY. BUOY 51001 SHOWS AN
UPWARD TREND IN THE 13-15 SECOND ENERGY THIS MORNING. THIS EPISODE
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS ON
TUESDAY FROM 330-360 DEGREES.
THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS ENTERED AN ACTIVE MODE WITH A SOUTHERLY SHIFT
TO THE JET STREAM FROM JAPAN TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. THIS IS
LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF FOR WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
SHORES AND MOST DAYS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVE-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS FORMED EAST
OF JAPAN ON SATURDAY. QUIKSCAT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE OCEAN
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOWED AN
UNFOLDING FETCH OF SEVERE GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII. THE GROWING SEAS IN THIS DIRECTIONAL
BAND TRAVELLED AT A SIMILAR DIRECTION AND SPEED AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM...ALLOWING A CAPTURED FETCH OF OVER 1200 NM. THE WIDTH OF THE
FETCH HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS LOSS OF
SWELL HEIGHT AS THE WAVES LEAVE THE SOURCE REGION. THE HEAD OF THE
FETCH WAS ABOUT 1800 NM AWAY FROM OAHU ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING TODAY...RESULTING
IN A STALLING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 300-315 DEGREE BAND
FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO A REGION BEYOND 1000 NM OUT FROM
HAWAII.
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 19-21 SECONDS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY NEAR DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY FROM 295-310 DEGREES...WITH A RAPID RISE IN BREAKER
HEIGHTS
MID MORNING. SURF SHOULD REACH EXTRA-LARGE LEVELS BY LATE
MORNING...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN
THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO ZONES OF HIGH REFRACTION ON OUTER REEFS.
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR SHORE ARE USUALLY 25 TO 50 PER CENT LESS.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY CENTERED ON ABOUT
305-310 DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY DROP ON THURSDAY...YET REMAIN
IN THE EXTRA-LARGE CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW
RISE IN THE SURF IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
SEVERAL SOURCES ARE MODELLED TO CREATE SURF FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DATELINE FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO MID WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE TO SEVERE GALE WINDS AIMED AT
HAWAII IN THE 315-345 DEGREE BAND. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BUILD TO HIGH
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND HOLD INTO SATURDAY.
A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED EAST OF JAPAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER CAPTURED FETCH OF GALES TO SEVERE GALES IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND FOR MID MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE DATELINE AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SOURCE SHOULD ALSO GENERATE HIGH
SURF BUILDING FRIDAY AND DROPPING SATURDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF THE MULTIPLE SWELL SOURCES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDE
SPREAD IN WAVE DIRECTION AND PERIOD...MAKING FOR CONFUSED BREAKERS
AND STRONG CURRENTS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHT IS
ADDITIVE...THUS WHEN SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SAME
LOCATION...THE VALUES ARE COMBINE. THUS...EXTRA-LARGE SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID MONDAY FINDS LIGHT LARGE SCALE WIND FLOW ALLOWING LOCALIZED LAND
AND SEA BREEZES. GENTLE KONAS...FROM 200-240 DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...BUILDING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY...AND FRESH LEVELS ON THURSDAY. IN TURN...WINDSWELL SHOULD
MAKE ROUGH...CHOPPY BREAKERS BUILDING ON THURSDAY TO MODERATE
LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY-COMPONENT WINDS ON
FRIDAY...COINCIDING WITH A PEAK TO THE WINDSWELL FROM 210-250
DEGREES...AT MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS
ON SOUTHERN SHORES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOMETIME ON FRIDAY
WITH SHORT-LIVED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW LATE FRIDAY...WEAKENING AND
VEERING TOWARD NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
FOR NORTH- AND EAST-FACING SHORES ON DAYS OF WESTERLY
COMPONENT...FRESH OR STRONGER...LARGE SCALE WINDS...ACCELERATION
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DOWN THE SLOPES CAN RESULT IN GUSTS INTO
THE NEAR GALE TO GALE RANGE.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE JET STREAM IS MODELLED TO STAY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC INTO NEXT WEEK...
MAKING
FOR CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF WITH WINDS ROTATING AROUND
THE COMPASS WITH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS NEAR THE ISLANDS. MODELS
SUGGEST A MINIMUM IN SURF MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY DOWN TO MODERATE
LEVELS...THEN ANOTHER HIGH EPISODE BY TUESDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. SHORT-LIVED MODERATE TRADES SUGGESTED FOR ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO RAMBUNCTIOUS
RECASTING.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 14.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 140052
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
HIZ005>011-140500-
OAHU-
300 PM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR BUILDING SURF ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL 4 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SURF
WILL BEGIN RISING WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING RAPIDLY TO 30 TO 35
FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
SURF WILL BEGIN RISING WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING RAPIDLY TO 12
TO 22 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT HIGHER ON COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST
SWELL.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY JAN 19:
THE VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF ABOVE THE 25 FOOT
WARNING THRESHOLD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND WEST SHORES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL...THEREFORE LARGE SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND LIKELY DROP BELOW THE 15 AND 12 FOOT ADVISORY LEVELS ON
THE NORTH SHORE AND WEST SHORES BY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD STORMY SURF ON THE SOUTH SHORE APPROACHING THE
8 FOOT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST MON JAN 12 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 NNW 13 14 18 UP 4-6 VRB SAME
01/12 4 NNW 8 2 4 DOWN
TUE 6 NNW 12 8 12 DOWN HIGH 7-10 SW UP
01/13 3 N 8 2 2 DOWN LOW
WED 15 WNW 17 34 42 UP HIGH 11-16 SW UP
01/14 5 SW 6 2 2 UP LOW
THU 12 NW 15 24 32 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 8 SW 8 4 6 UP MED
FRI 8 WNW 16 16 20 UP LOW 22-27 W DOWN
01/16 9 NW 15 16 22 UP LOW
9 WSW 8 6 8 SAME LOW
SAT 6 WNW 13 10 12 DOWN LOW 11-16 NNE DOWN
01/17 10 NNW 14 18 24 SAME MED
4 WSW 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ACTIVE WINTER SURF PATTERN.
DETAILED...
MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 320-350 DEGREES
WITH 8-15 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY A
SHORT-LIVED...FAST-TRACKING...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT PASSED
ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF HAWAII EARLY SUNDAY. BUOY 51001 SHOWS AN
UPWARD TREND IN THE 13-15 SECOND ENERGY THIS MORNING. THIS EPISODE
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS ON
TUESDAY FROM 330-360 DEGREES.
THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS ENTERED AN ACTIVE MODE WITH A SOUTHERLY SHIFT
TO THE JET STREAM FROM JAPAN TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. THIS IS
LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF FOR WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
SHORES AND MOST DAYS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVE-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS FORMED EAST
OF JAPAN ON SATURDAY. QUIKSCAT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE OCEAN
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOWED AN
UNFOLDING FETCH OF SEVERE GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII. THE GROWING SEAS IN THIS DIRECTIONAL
BAND TRAVELLED AT A SIMILAR DIRECTION AND SPEED AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM...ALLOWING A CAPTURED FETCH OF OVER 1200 NM. THE WIDTH OF THE
FETCH HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS LOSS OF
SWELL HEIGHT AS THE WAVES LEAVE THE SOURCE REGION. THE HEAD OF THE
FETCH WAS ABOUT 1800 NM AWAY FROM OAHU ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING TODAY...RESULTING
IN A STALLING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 300-315 DEGREE BAND
FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO A REGION BEYOND 1000 NM OUT FROM
HAWAII.
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 19-21 SECONDS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY NEAR DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY FROM 295-310 DEGREES...WITH A RAPID RISE IN BREAKER
HEIGHTS
MID MORNING. SURF SHOULD REACH EXTRA-LARGE LEVELS BY LATE
MORNING...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN
THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO ZONES OF HIGH REFRACTION ON OUTER REEFS.
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR SHORE ARE USUALLY 25 TO 50 PER CENT LESS.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY CENTERED ON ABOUT
305-310 DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY DROP ON THURSDAY...YET REMAIN
IN THE EXTRA-LARGE CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW
RISE IN THE SURF IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
SEVERAL SOURCES ARE MODELLED TO CREATE SURF FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DATELINE FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO MID WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE TO SEVERE GALE WINDS AIMED AT
HAWAII IN THE 315-345 DEGREE BAND. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BUILD TO HIGH
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND HOLD INTO SATURDAY.
A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED EAST OF JAPAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER CAPTURED FETCH OF GALES TO SEVERE GALES IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND FOR MID MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE DATELINE AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SOURCE SHOULD ALSO GENERATE HIGH
SURF BUILDING FRIDAY AND DROPPING SATURDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF THE MULTIPLE SWELL SOURCES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDE
SPREAD IN WAVE DIRECTION AND PERIOD...MAKING FOR CONFUSED BREAKERS
AND STRONG CURRENTS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHT IS
ADDITIVE...THUS WHEN SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SAME
LOCATION...THE VALUES ARE COMBINE. THUS...EXTRA-LARGE SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID MONDAY FINDS LIGHT LARGE SCALE WIND FLOW ALLOWING LOCALIZED LAND
AND SEA BREEZES. GENTLE KONAS...FROM 200-240 DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...BUILDING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY...AND FRESH LEVELS ON THURSDAY. IN TURN...WINDSWELL SHOULD
MAKE ROUGH...CHOPPY BREAKERS BUILDING ON THURSDAY TO MODERATE
LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY-COMPONENT WINDS ON
FRIDAY...COINCIDING WITH A PEAK TO THE WINDSWELL FROM 210-250
DEGREES...AT MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS
ON SOUTHERN SHORES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOMETIME ON FRIDAY
WITH SHORT-LIVED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW LATE FRIDAY...WEAKENING AND
VEERING TOWARD NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
FOR NORTH- AND EAST-FACING SHORES ON DAYS OF WESTERLY
COMPONENT...FRESH OR STRONGER...LARGE SCALE WINDS...ACCELERATION
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DOWN THE SLOPES CAN RESULT IN GUSTS INTO
THE NEAR GALE TO GALE RANGE.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE JET STREAM IS MODELLED TO STAY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC INTO NEXT WEEK...
MAKING
FOR CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF WITH WINDS ROTATING AROUND
THE COMPASS WITH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS NEAR THE ISLANDS. MODELS
SUGGEST A MINIMUM IN SURF MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY DOWN TO MODERATE
LEVELS...THEN ANOTHER HIGH EPISODE BY TUESDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. SHORT-LIVED MODERATE TRADES SUGGESTED FOR ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO RAMBUNCTIOUS
RECASTING.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 14.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 132040 AAA
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1030 AM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
HIZ005>011-140100-
OAHU-
1030 AM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR BUILDING SURF ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL LOWER TO 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY.
SURF WILL BEGIN RISING WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING RAPIDLY TO 30
TO 35 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET TODAY. SURF WILL
BEGIN RISING WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING RAPIDLY TO 12 TO 22 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT HIGHER ON COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY JAN 19:
THE VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF ABOVE THE 25 FOOT
WARNING THRESHOLD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND WEST SHORES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL...THEREFORE LARGE SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND LIKELY DROP BELOW THE 15 AND 12 FOOT ADVISORY LEVELS ON
THE NORTH SHORE AND WEST SHORES BY MONDAY.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST MON JAN 12 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 NNW 13 14 18 UP 4-6 VRB SAME
01/12 4 NNW 8 2 4 DOWN
TUE 6 NNW 12 8 12 DOWN HIGH 7-10 SW UP
01/13 3 N 8 2 2 DOWN LOW
WED 15 WNW 17 34 42 UP HIGH 11-16 SW UP
01/14 5 SW 6 2 2 UP LOW
THU 12 NW 15 24 32 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 8 SW 8 4 6 UP MED
FRI 8 WNW 16 16 20 UP LOW 22-27 W DOWN
01/16 9 NW 15 16 22 UP LOW
9 WSW 8 6 8 SAME LOW
SAT 6 WNW 13 10 12 DOWN LOW 11-16 NNE DOWN
01/17 10 NNW 14 18 24 SAME MED
4 WSW 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ACTIVE WINTER SURF PATTERN.
DETAILED...
MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 320-350 DEGREES
WITH 8-15 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY A
SHORT-LIVED...FAST-TRACKING...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT PASSED
ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF HAWAII EARLY SUNDAY. BUOY 51001 SHOWS AN
UPWARD TREND IN THE 13-15 SECOND ENERGY THIS MORNING. THIS EPISODE
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS ON
TUESDAY FROM 330-360 DEGREES.
THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS ENTERED AN ACTIVE MODE WITH A SOUTHERLY SHIFT
TO THE JET STREAM FROM JAPAN TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. THIS IS
LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF FOR WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
SHORES AND MOST DAYS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVE-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS FORMED EAST
OF JAPAN ON SATURDAY. QUIKSCAT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE OCEAN
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOWED AN
UNFOLDING FETCH OF SEVERE GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII. THE GROWING SEAS IN THIS DIRECTIONAL
BAND TRAVELLED AT A SIMILAR DIRECTION AND SPEED AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM...ALLOWING A CAPTURED FETCH OF OVER 1200 NM. THE WIDTH OF THE
FETCH HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS LOSS OF
SWELL HEIGHT AS THE WAVES LEAVE THE SOURCE REGION. THE HEAD OF THE
FETCH WAS ABOUT 1800 NM AWAY FROM OAHU ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING TODAY...RESULTING
IN A STALLING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 300-315 DEGREE BAND
FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO A REGION BEYOND 1000 NM OUT FROM
HAWAII.
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 19-21 SECONDS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY NEAR DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY FROM 295-310 DEGREES...WITH A RAPID RISE IN BREAKER
HEIGHTS
MID MORNING. SURF SHOULD REACH EXTRA-LARGE LEVELS BY LATE
MORNING...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN
THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO ZONES OF HIGH REFRACTION ON OUTER REEFS.
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR SHORE ARE USUALLY 25 TO 50 PER CENT LESS.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY CENTERED ON ABOUT
305-310 DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY DROP ON THURSDAY...YET REMAIN
IN THE EXTRA-LARGE CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW
RISE IN THE SURF IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
SEVERAL SOURCES ARE MODELLED TO CREATE SURF FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DATELINE FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO MID WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE TO SEVERE GALE WINDS AIMED AT
HAWAII IN THE 315-345 DEGREE BAND. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BUILD TO HIGH
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND HOLD INTO SATURDAY.
A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED EAST OF JAPAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER CAPTURED FETCH OF GALES TO SEVERE GALES IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND FOR MID MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE DATELINE AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SOURCE SHOULD ALSO GENERATE HIGH
SURF BUILDING FRIDAY AND DROPPING SATURDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF THE MULTIPLE SWELL SOURCES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDE
SPREAD IN WAVE DIRECTION AND PERIOD...MAKING FOR CONFUSED BREAKERS
AND STRONG CURRENTS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHT IS
ADDITIVE...THUS WHEN SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SAME
LOCATION...THE VALUES ARE COMBINE. THUS...EXTRA-LARGE SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID MONDAY FINDS LIGHT LARGE SCALE WIND FLOW ALLOWING LOCALIZED LAND
AND SEA BREEZES. GENTLE KONAS...FROM 200-240 DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...BUILDING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY...AND FRESH LEVELS ON THURSDAY. IN TURN...WINDSWELL SHOULD
MAKE ROUGH...CHOPPY BREAKERS BUILDING ON THURSDAY TO MODERATE
LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY-COMPONENT WINDS ON
FRIDAY...COINCIDING WITH A PEAK TO THE WINDSWELL FROM 210-250
DEGREES...AT MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS
ON SOUTHERN SHORES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOMETIME ON FRIDAY
WITH SHORT-LIVED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW LATE FRIDAY...WEAKENING AND
VEERING TOWARD NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
FOR NORTH- AND EAST-FACING SHORES ON DAYS OF WESTERLY
COMPONENT...FRESH OR STRONGER...LARGE SCALE WINDS...ACCELERATION
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DOWN THE SLOPES CAN RESULT IN GUSTS INTO
THE NEAR GALE TO GALE RANGE.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE JET STREAM IS MODELLED TO STAY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC INTO NEXT WEEK...
MAKING
FOR CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF WITH WINDS ROTATING AROUND
THE COMPASS WITH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS NEAR THE ISLANDS. MODELS
SUGGEST A MINIMUM IN SURF MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY DOWN TO MODERATE
LEVELS...THEN ANOTHER HIGH EPISODE BY TUESDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. SHORT-LIVED MODERATE TRADES SUGGESTED FOR ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO RAMBUNCTIOUS
RECASTING.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 14.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 131820
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
HIZ005>011-140100-
OAHU-
900 AM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL LOWER TO 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY.
SURF WILL BEGIN RISING WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING RAPIDLY TO 30
TO 35 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET TODAY. SURF WILL
BEGIN RISING WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING RAPIDLY TO 12 TO 22 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT HIGHER ON COASTS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY JAN 19:
THE VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF ABOVE THE 25 FOOT
WARNING THRESHOLD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND WEST SHORES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL...THEREFORE LARGE SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND LIKELY DROP BELOW THE 15 AND 12 FOOT ADVISORY LEVELS ON
THE NORTH SHORE AND WEST SHORES BY MONDAY.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST MON JAN 12 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 NNW 13 14 18 UP 4-6 VRB SAME
01/12 4 NNW 8 2 4 DOWN
TUE 6 NNW 12 8 12 DOWN HIGH 7-10 SW UP
01/13 3 N 8 2 2 DOWN LOW
WED 15 WNW 17 34 42 UP HIGH 11-16 SW UP
01/14 5 SW 6 2 2 UP LOW
THU 12 NW 15 24 32 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 8 SW 8 4 6 UP MED
FRI 8 WNW 16 16 20 UP LOW 22-27 W DOWN
01/16 9 NW 15 16 22 UP LOW
9 WSW 8 6 8 SAME LOW
SAT 6 WNW 13 10 12 DOWN LOW 11-16 NNE DOWN
01/17 10 NNW 14 18 24 SAME MED
4 WSW 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ACTIVE WINTER SURF PATTERN.
DETAILED...
MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 320-350 DEGREES
WITH 8-15 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY A
SHORT-LIVED...FAST-TRACKING...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT PASSED
ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF HAWAII EARLY SUNDAY. BUOY 51001 SHOWS AN
UPWARD TREND IN THE 13-15 SECOND ENERGY THIS MORNING. THIS EPISODE
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS ON
TUESDAY FROM 330-360 DEGREES.
THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS ENTERED AN ACTIVE MODE WITH A SOUTHERLY SHIFT
TO THE JET STREAM FROM JAPAN TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. THIS IS
LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF FOR WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
SHORES AND MOST DAYS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVE-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS FORMED EAST
OF JAPAN ON SATURDAY. QUIKSCAT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE OCEAN
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOWED AN
UNFOLDING FETCH OF SEVERE GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII. THE GROWING SEAS IN THIS DIRECTIONAL
BAND TRAVELLED AT A SIMILAR DIRECTION AND SPEED AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM...ALLOWING A CAPTURED FETCH OF OVER 1200 NM. THE WIDTH OF THE
FETCH HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS LOSS OF
SWELL HEIGHT AS THE WAVES LEAVE THE SOURCE REGION. THE HEAD OF THE
FETCH WAS ABOUT 1800 NM AWAY FROM OAHU ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING TODAY...RESULTING
IN A STALLING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 300-315 DEGREE BAND
FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO A REGION BEYOND 1000 NM OUT FROM
HAWAII.
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 19-21 SECONDS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY NEAR DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY FROM 295-310 DEGREES...WITH A RAPID RISE IN BREAKER
HEIGHTS
MID MORNING. SURF SHOULD REACH EXTRA-LARGE LEVELS BY LATE
MORNING...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN
THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO ZONES OF HIGH REFRACTION ON OUTER REEFS.
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR SHORE ARE USUALLY 25 TO 50 PER CENT LESS.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY CENTERED ON ABOUT
305-310 DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY DROP ON THURSDAY...YET REMAIN
IN THE EXTRA-LARGE CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW
RISE IN THE SURF IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
SEVERAL SOURCES ARE MODELLED TO CREATE SURF FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DATELINE FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO MID WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE TO SEVERE GALE WINDS AIMED AT
HAWAII IN THE 315-345 DEGREE BAND. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BUILD TO HIGH
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND HOLD INTO SATURDAY.
A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED EAST OF JAPAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER CAPTURED FETCH OF GALES TO SEVERE GALES IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND FOR MID MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE DATELINE AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SOURCE SHOULD ALSO GENERATE HIGH
SURF BUILDING FRIDAY AND DROPPING SATURDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF THE MULTIPLE SWELL SOURCES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDE
SPREAD IN WAVE DIRECTION AND PERIOD...MAKING FOR CONFUSED BREAKERS
AND STRONG CURRENTS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHT IS
ADDITIVE...THUS WHEN SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SAME
LOCATION...THE VALUES ARE COMBINE. THUS...EXTRA-LARGE SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID MONDAY FINDS LIGHT LARGE SCALE WIND FLOW ALLOWING LOCALIZED LAND
AND SEA BREEZES. GENTLE KONAS...FROM 200-240 DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...BUILDING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY...AND FRESH LEVELS ON THURSDAY. IN TURN...WINDSWELL SHOULD
MAKE ROUGH...CHOPPY BREAKERS BUILDING ON THURSDAY TO MODERATE
LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY-COMPONENT WINDS ON
FRIDAY...COINCIDING WITH A PEAK TO THE WINDSWELL FROM 210-250
DEGREES...AT MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS
ON SOUTHERN SHORES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOMETIME ON FRIDAY
WITH SHORT-LIVED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW LATE FRIDAY...WEAKENING AND
VEERING TOWARD NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
FOR NORTH- AND EAST-FACING SHORES ON DAYS OF WESTERLY
COMPONENT...FRESH OR STRONGER...LARGE SCALE WINDS...ACCELERATION
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DOWN THE SLOPES CAN RESULT IN GUSTS INTO
THE NEAR GALE TO GALE RANGE.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE JET STREAM IS MODELLED TO STAY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC INTO NEXT WEEK...
MAKING
FOR CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF WITH WINDS ROTATING AROUND
THE COMPASS WITH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS NEAR THE ISLANDS. MODELS
SUGGEST A MINIMUM IN SURF MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY DOWN TO MODERATE
LEVELS...THEN ANOTHER HIGH EPISODE BY TUESDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. SHORT-LIVED MODERATE TRADES SUGGESTED FOR ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO RAMBUNCTIOUS
RECASTING.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 14.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
000
FZHW50 PHFO 131400
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
HIZ005>011-131900-
OAHU-
400 AM HST TUE JAN 13 2009
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY CANCELED FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 10 TO 14 FEET LOWERING TO 6
TO 10 FEET TODAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LOWERING TO
3 TO 6 FEET TODAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET TODAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET TODAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY JAN 18:
THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL
OF 15 FEET FOR THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU TUESDAY MORNING. A
VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE SURF
ABOVE THE 25 FOOT WARNING THRESHOLD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
POSSIBLY ABOVE THE 20 FOOT WARNING THRESHOLD ON THE WEST SHORE.
ANOTHER VERY LARGE SWELL FROM THE SAME STORM WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS
THRUSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE WEEKEND.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST MON JAN 12 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 NNW 13 14 18 UP 4-6 VRB SAME
01/12 4 NNW 8 2 4 DOWN
TUE 6 NNW 12 8 12 DOWN HIGH 7-10 SW UP
01/13 3 N 8 2 2 DOWN LOW
WED 15 WNW 17 34 42 UP HIGH 11-16 SW UP
01/14 5 SW 6 2 2 UP LOW
THU 12 NW 15 24 32 DOWN HIGH 17-21 SW UP
01/15 8 SW 8 4 6 UP MED
FRI 8 WNW 16 16 20 UP LOW 22-27 W DOWN
01/16 9 NW 15 16 22 UP LOW
9 WSW 8 6 8 SAME LOW
SAT 6 WNW 13 10 12 DOWN LOW 11-16 NNE DOWN
01/17 10 NNW 14 18 24 SAME MED
4 WSW 8 2 4 DOWN LOW
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
ACTIVE WINTER SURF PATTERN.
DETAILED...
MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 320-350 DEGREES
WITH 8-15 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY A
SHORT-LIVED...FAST-TRACKING...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT PASSED
ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF HAWAII EARLY SUNDAY. BUOY 51001 SHOWS AN
UPWARD TREND IN THE 13-15 SECOND ENERGY THIS MORNING. THIS EPISODE
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS ON
TUESDAY FROM 330-360 DEGREES.
THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS ENTERED AN ACTIVE MODE WITH A SOUTHERLY SHIFT
TO THE JET STREAM FROM JAPAN TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. THIS IS
LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF FOR WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
SHORES AND MOST DAYS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF HAWAII.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVE-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS FORMED EAST
OF JAPAN ON SATURDAY. QUIKSCAT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE OCEAN
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOWED AN
UNFOLDING FETCH OF SEVERE GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII. THE GROWING SEAS IN THIS DIRECTIONAL
BAND TRAVELLED AT A SIMILAR DIRECTION AND SPEED AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM...ALLOWING A CAPTURED FETCH OF OVER 1200 NM. THE WIDTH OF THE
FETCH HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS LOSS OF
SWELL HEIGHT AS THE WAVES LEAVE THE SOURCE REGION. THE HEAD OF THE
FETCH WAS ABOUT 1800 NM AWAY FROM OAHU ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING TODAY...RESULTING
IN A STALLING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 300-315 DEGREE BAND
FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO A REGION BEYOND 1000 NM OUT FROM
HAWAII.
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 19-21 SECONDS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY NEAR DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY FROM 295-310 DEGREES...WITH A RAPID RISE IN BREAKER
HEIGHTS
MID MORNING. SURF SHOULD REACH EXTRA-LARGE LEVELS BY LATE
MORNING...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN
THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO ZONES OF HIGH REFRACTION ON OUTER REEFS.
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR SHORE ARE USUALLY 25 TO 50 PER CENT LESS.
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY CENTERED ON ABOUT
305-310 DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY DROP ON THURSDAY...YET REMAIN
IN THE EXTRA-LARGE CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW
RISE IN THE SURF IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
SEVERAL SOURCES ARE MODELLED TO CREATE SURF FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DATELINE FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO MID WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE TO SEVERE GALE WINDS AIMED AT
HAWAII IN THE 315-345 DEGREE BAND. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BUILD TO HIGH
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND HOLD INTO SATURDAY.
A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED EAST OF JAPAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER CAPTURED FETCH OF GALES TO SEVERE GALES IN THE 295-315
DEGREE BAND FOR MID MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE DATELINE AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SOURCE SHOULD ALSO GENERATE HIGH
SURF BUILDING FRIDAY AND DROPPING SATURDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF THE MULTIPLE SWELL SOURCES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDE
SPREAD IN WAVE DIRECTION AND PERIOD...MAKING FOR CONFUSED BREAKERS
AND STRONG CURRENTS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHT IS
ADDITIVE...THUS WHEN SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SAME
LOCATION...THE VALUES ARE COMBINE. THUS...EXTRA-LARGE SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID MONDAY FINDS LIGHT LARGE SCALE WIND FLOW ALLOWING LOCALIZED LAND
AND SEA BREEZES. GENTLE KONAS...FROM 200-240 DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...BUILDING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY...AND FRESH LEVELS ON THURSDAY. IN TURN...WINDSWELL SHOULD
MAKE ROUGH...CHOPPY BREAKERS BUILDING ON THURSDAY TO MODERATE
LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY-COMPONENT WINDS ON
FRIDAY...COINCIDING WITH A PEAK TO THE WINDSWELL FROM 210-250
DEGREES...AT MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS
ON SOUTHERN SHORES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOMETIME ON FRIDAY
WITH SHORT-LIVED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW LATE FRIDAY...WEAKENING AND
VEERING TOWARD NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
FOR NORTH- AND EAST-FACING SHORES ON DAYS OF WESTERLY
COMPONENT...FRESH OR STRONGER...LARGE SCALE WINDS...ACCELERATION
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DOWN THE SLOPES CAN RESULT IN GUSTS INTO
THE NEAR GALE TO GALE RANGE.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE JET STREAM IS MODELLED TO STAY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC INTO NEXT WEEK...
MAKING
FOR CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER SURF WITH WINDS ROTATING AROUND
THE COMPASS WITH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS NEAR THE ISLANDS. MODELS
SUGGEST A MINIMUM IN SURF MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY DOWN TO MODERATE
LEVELS...THEN ANOTHER HIGH EPISODE BY TUESDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. SHORT-LIVED MODERATE TRADES SUGGESTED FOR ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO RAMBUNCTIOUS
RECASTING.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 14.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS HOAG AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
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