Ukraine: Dryness Hampers Winter Grain Planting
Persistent dryness throughout Ukraine, beginning in August and extending into October, had a significant negative effect on the planting of 2006/07 winter grains. As of October 18, only 5.3 million hectares of winter crops had been sown compared to 7.2 million by the same date last year, according to Ministry of Agriculture data reported by the Ukrainian commodity analysis group APK-Inform. Grains typically comprise over 95 percent of total winter crops in Ukraine, and wheat accounts for about 85 percent of the winter grains.
Surface
moisture depletion, as indicated by surface-wetness anomaly data derived from
microwave satellite imagery, was evident by mid-August
in eastern Ukraine. The dryness expanded and
intensified over the next seven weeks, and in late September -- when
planting was only 50 percent complete and sown area was about 2 million hectares
behind the pace of the previous year -- the Ministry of Agriculture reduced the
official forecast of winter crop area from 7.7 to 6.5 million hectares. By
October 9, surface moisture was extremely low
throughout Ukraine. Precipitation on October 12 replenished
surface moisture in a portion of south-central Ukraine, but the rainfall arrived
too late and was too localized to benefit the sowing campaign. Daily
planting data from mid-October indicate that fall planting is approaching
completion and suggest that final sown area is almost certain to fall short of
the revised target by roughly one million hectares. The greatest
year-to-year reduction in area (as of October 14)
has occurred in south-central Ukraine, which includes some of the country's most
important winter
wheat territories.
(In Russia, meanwhile, winter crops had been sown on 12.8 million hectares by
October 17 compared to 13.6 million by the same date last year. Dry
conditions were reportedly contributing to planting delays, especially in the
key Southern District. Fall planting in Russia typically is largely
complete by November.)
Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural
commodities are available at World
Agricultural Production Online or at PSD
Online. Initial estimates for 2006/07 will be released in May 2006.
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