000
FZAK80 PAFC 192343
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
245 PM AKST MONDAY JANUARY 19 2009

FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2009

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE.

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROFF EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL MAINLAND
ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ185-010300-ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT-
PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN-

THE ICE EDGE LIES FROM NEAR FALSE PASS ALONG THE BERING SIDE OF THE
ALASKAN PENINSULA TO 56N 161.8W TO 56.7N 160W TO 57.9N 158.4W TO
57.1N 161.7W TO 56.7N 163.3W TO 56.8N 166.7W TO 57.1N 169W TO 57.4N
170.2W TO 58.2N 172.6W TO 58.9N 174.5W TO 59.8N 177.4W TO 60.7N
179.5E TO 60.6N 175.3E TO 60N 171.9E AND CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.  THE EDGE IS MAINLY 1 TO 3 TENTHS NEW AND
YOUNG ICE OFTEN IN STRIPS. THE MAIN PACK IS 10 TO 15 NM BEHIND THE
EDGE.

4 TO 6 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN PORT MOLLER. 3 TO 5 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES
IN IZEMBEK LAGOON AND THE BERING SIDE OF FALSE PASS. 1 TO 3 TENTHS
NEW ICE LIES NEAR COLD BAY.

DETAILED ICE EDGE LOCATION 167W TO 180.  A NOTE FROM KCOLE...WOULD
THESE BE EASIER TO READ IF LISTED LATITUDE THEN LONGITUDE.

167W    56.9N
168W    57.1N
169W    57.1N
170W    57.4N
171W    57.7N
172W    58.0N
173W    58.4N
174W    58.8N
175W    59.1N
176W    59.4N
177W    59.7N
178W    60.0N
179W    60.3N
180     60.6N

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WEST OF 175W...WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL REACH THE ICE EDGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
ICE EDGE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 NM THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST FOR WATERS BETWEEN 175W AND 167W...WARMER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY THEN BECOME LIGHTER
AND NORTHERLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ICE EDGE WILL COMPACT TO THE
NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 NM BY FRIDAY.

FORECAST FOR WATERS EAST OF 167W...INCLUDING BRISTOL BAY...EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME LIGHTER
AND NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY. ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST 20
TO 25 NM THROUGH FRIDAY.

PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY-
PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY-
PKZ130-BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS-

COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE.

ICE OBSERVATIONS FROM COOK INLET WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

ICE HAD DIMINISHED GREATLY IN KNIK AND TURNAGAIN ARMS. 1 TO 4 TENTHS
NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES AROUND FIRE ISLAND. 3 TO 8 TENTHS YOUNG AND
NEW ICE LIES IN KNIK ARM. 2 TO 8 TENTHS YOUNG AND NEW ICE LIES IN
TURNAGAIN ARM.

1 TO 3 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES ALONG THE EAST SHORELINE NORTH
OF THE FORELANDS. 5 TO 10 TENTHS YOUNG...NEW AND FIRST YEAR THIN ICE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF COOK INLET NORTH OF THE FORELANDS.

OPEN WATER LIES ALONG THE EAST SHORELINE SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS. 4 TO
9 TENTHS YOUNG AND NEW ICE LIES FROM THE FORELANDS TO 25 NM SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND. 2 TO 4 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE CONTINUES IN THE
CENTER OF THE INLET SOUTH TO FACING ANCHOR POINT.

7 TO 9 TENTHS YOUNG AND NEW ICE LIES IN KAMISHAK BAY. 1 TO 4 TENTHS
NEW AND YOUNG ICE EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST FROM NEAR CAPE
DOUGLAS TO THE MAIN PACK.

5 TO 7 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES AT THE END OF KACHEMAK BAY. 2 TO
4 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES ALONG THE HOMER SPIT.

COOK INLET FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ICE WILL
MOVE WITH THE TIDES. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH THE ICE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORELINE. A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ICE TO DEVELOP WHERE
RECENTLY MELTED. THIS NEW ICE WILL FORM QUICKLY ONCE AIR TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PLEASE REMEMBER ICE IN COOK INLET VARIES GREATLY WITH THE TIDES.

KCOLE 2009

$$