000
FXAK67 PAJK 171408
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
608 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

.SHORT TERM...998 MB LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL FILL
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES N AND DEVELOPS A NEW
SURFACE LOW N OF THE AK RANGE.

A 997 LOW 200 NM S OF COLD BAY IS WITHIN A CYCLOGENETIC SYSTEM
AND SHOULD DEEPEN TO 985 MB 100 NM S OF KODIAK 06Z TONIGHT. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL REACH MARINE ZONE 52 ABOUT 12Z TONIGHT.


LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 1211 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

MID RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TO ABOUT MONDAY
BEFORE THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS THE NEXT WEEK. IN
COORDINATION WITH HPC THE IDEA OF SOLUTION SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
ECMWF WAS PRESENTING LOOKS BETTER SO THAT IS WHAT WAS BEING
INCORPORATED INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MORE OR
COMPLETELY ECMWF FOR NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH THIS WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WHICH SHOULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF TO THE
CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE AREA. THE BREAK
THURSDAY IS SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TO THE KENAI PENINSULA BY FRIDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA FOR FRIDAY. THE SECONDARY TROUGH BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT WILL
SPREAD IN MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

IN THE LATER PERIODS THE ECMWF KEEPS A LOW IN THE NORTHER GULF
WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AM NOT EXPECTING AT THIS TIME ANY SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF GALES FOR COASTAL
WATERS ZONE PKZ052.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052 AND PKZ310.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041>043-051.

JBT

000
FXAK69 PAFG 171240
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
440 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
996 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL WEAKEN INTO A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
BY 00Z THU...WITH MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1000 MB.
COINCIDING WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AND LIE EAST-WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY 00Z THU. RAIN
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WED NIGHT
EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTHERN WEST
COAST WHERE RAIN OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

ON THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR... AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS WHILE THE EASTERN INTERIOR REMAINS DRY
UNDER DOWNSLOPE FLOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR BY
FRI...A WIDESPREAD LOW PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE
WEAK LOW CENTERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST... SHOWERS MAY BE NUMEROUS
IN SOME PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. THE EASTERN
INTERIOR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY UNDER DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST TEXT.

SNOW LEVEL IN THE ALASKA RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4000
FEET MSL.

04Z QUICKSCAT PASS SHOWS EAST WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER MOST OF
PKZ240-PKZ245...GALES EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

GALE WARNING...PKZ240-PKZ245.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF SEP 08

000
FXAK68 PAFC 171215
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THIS MORNING...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A 993 MB LOW PRESSURE
IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO
SOUTHCENTRAL INCLUDING MANY INLAND AREAS OF THE COOK INLET REGION
WHICH ARE NORMALLY DRIER. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVING RIDING
THE JET STREAM EAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LATER TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
WEATHER ACTIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE BERING/ALEUTIANS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING OKAY...NOT GREAT...NOT TERRIBLE. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE IS THE LOW RIDING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND REACHING
THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN WOBBLING A LITTLE
ON WHETHER THE LOW GOES JUST WEST OF SHELIKOF STRAIT OF STAYS OVER
KODIAK. WE ARE GOING WITH THE EASTERN ENVELOPE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS...TAKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND. THE LOW THEN
STALLS OUT AROUND KODIAK ISLAND...BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW LONG
IT STALLS OUT. WE ARE GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE LOW KICKS OUT A
LITTLE FASTER AND TOWARD SEWARD...WHICH IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT WITH. FOR THE LONG
TERM...FAVORING THE 0Z ECMWF OVER THE 0Z GFS...AS THE 0Z GFS WAS
MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 0Z ECMWF WAS
MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE TODAY...AS RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH KICKS THROUGH. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER SOME
AREAS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM HOT ON ITS HEELS BEGINS TO AFFECT
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A STRONG LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF...REACHING KODIAK TONIGHT AND MAXING
OUT AT AROUND 982 MB. THIS LOW THEN NEARLY STALLS OUT AND EVENTUALLY
SLOWLY KICKS OUT NORTHEAST FROM KODIAK AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS PROLONGED RAIN
AND WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL RETURN TO KODIAK
THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE KENAI THIS EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN THE LAST SYSTEM IN THAT
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OVER THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO THE CORRIDOR FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO
ANCHORAGE TO PALMER. ALSO...STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
USUAL CHANNELED AREAS LIKE TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY. LITTLE
OR NO CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SPREAD ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL MAINLY INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...BUT ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS GLOOMY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY KICK
OUT OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TO KODIAK...AND
FAIRLY STRONG SHOWERY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ESPECIALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SET INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TENTATIVELY EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE MAINLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN FOREVER. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS YET...BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF NICE FALL DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOST OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT
IN BERING.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 130 132 138 140 150 155 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY SEP 08

000
FXAK68 PAFC 162345
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING, THOUGH GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE BIGGER CONTINUITY ISSUE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE
ECWMF IS STILL THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL. THE 12Z NAM IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECWMC AND CAN BE USED FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE AN UPPER
THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER EASTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN CANADA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH WITH THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. RAIN
FROM THIS STORM COVERS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN AS OT PUSHES EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SWING NORTH
THROUGH KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND
THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

A LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CURVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND DEEPEN TO 982 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY. RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL MOVE WITH THE LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT,
THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AND INTO
KODIAK ISLAND, KENAI PENINSULA, CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SUSITNA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STRONG
VORT MAX MOVING THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN CHANGE TO SHOWER THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AS
A WEATHER FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE BERING FROM THE WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120, 130, 132, 155, 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 08

000
FXAK69 PAFG 162120
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
120 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS N FROM WRN LOWER 48
THROUGH BC/YUKON/ALCAN BORDER. MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING
THIS RIDGE BASICALLY IN PLACE INTO FRI. THIS WILL FORCE
A 996 MB SURFACE LOW IN NRN GULF AK WITH WEAKENING OCCLUSION
AHEAD OF IT N TONIGHT/WED OVER AK RANGE INTO INTERIOR. MODELS
FORECAST A STRONGER LOW TO DEEPEN NEAR PADQ THU THEN LIFT
N OVER WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR FRI...COLLAPSING 500 MB HEIGHT
FIELD OVER ALL AK BY SAT...AND ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SLIDE
EAST.

N SLOPE: UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER PASC WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
E TONIGHT/WED. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW N OF MACKENZIE BAY WILL
ALSO. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AND
LOW MOVING N FROM GULF AK WILL INCREASE E WINDS TO GALE FORCE
MARINE ZONES 240/245 TONIGHT TO WED. NIGHT. ONLY PATCHY AREAS
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG EXPECTED THRU WED NIGHT.

W COAST: UPPER LOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK CENTERS COVERS BERING AND
CHUKCHI SEAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE MCLDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
AS DEEPENING LOW SLIDES NE JUST S OF AK PEN. WED NIGHT/THU...
NRLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND INCREASE WINDS
TO SMCR LEVELS BERING SEA.

INTERIOR: REMAINS OF OCCLUSION LIFTING N FROM GULF AK WILL
BRING SOME -RA TO MOST OF INTERIOR TONIGHT/WED. AIRMASS MILD
MARITIME WITH FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 5K...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN 4K OR HIGHER AK RANGE TONIGHT/WED. CHINOOK FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH AK RANGE WED NIGHT/THU IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM
BUT LIKELY SUB-ADVISORY. SLOW COOLING AND SHOWERY WEATHER TAKING
HOLD FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW OOZES E OVER INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

MAR SEP 08

000
FXAK67 PAJK 162011
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1211 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

.SHORT TERM...MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH ITS TRIPLE POINT JUST
SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE GENERATES MODERATE RAIN FROM JUNEAU
ALL THE WAY NORTH TO SKAGWAY. INTENSE MOISTURE CHANNEL ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAS CAUSED
LOW CEILINGS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE STAYS
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF TRACKING NORTHWARD
TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM HAS SHOWN A
BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE GFS. PREFER TO LEAN MORE OVER THE
NAM SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORTS FOR THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION AND WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT UPPER MARGIN OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN
PANHANDLE COASTAL REGIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
A PARENT LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY WILL SEND A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS EASTWARD MOTION IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL DISCONNECT THE MOISTURE CHANNEL BEHIND THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND POOR VISIBILITIES RETURN LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS SHOULD BE
DECREASING SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
FETCH AREA FAR SOUTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG
PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST SWELL TO MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSIDE WATERS SHOULD
SEE RELATIVELY WEAKER WINDS BUT FOR THOSE CONNECTED TO THE OPEN
OCEAN WOULD SEE HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE OCEAN ENTRANCES. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE PACKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY JUST BEHIND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...MID RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TO ABOUT MONDAY
BEFORE THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS THE NEXT WEEK. IN
COORDINATION WITH HPC THE IDEA OF SOLUTION SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
ECMWF WAS PRESENTING LOOKS BETTER SO THAT IS WHAT WAS BEING
INCORPORATED INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MORE OR
COMPLETELY ECMWF FOR NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH THIS WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WHICH SHOULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF TO THE
CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE AREA. THE BREAK
THURSDAY IS SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TO THE KENAI PENINSULA BY FRIDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA FOR FRIDAY. THE SECONDARY TROUGH BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT WILL
SPREAD IN MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

IN THE LATER PERIODS THE ECMWF KEEPS A LOW IN THE NORTHER GULF
WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AM NOT EXPECTING AT THIS TIME ANY SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF GALES FOR COASTAL
WATERS ZONE PKZ052.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

SJA/BEZENEK

000
FXAK67 PAJK 161450
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
650 AM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

.SHORT TERM...500H TROUGH ALF EXTENDS SSE FM OVR KODIAK TO
OVR A POINT 1200 NM S OF CORDOVA. A NORTHERN BRANCH OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PIVOT NE AND OVR THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN
GLFALSK BTWN 12Z AND 18Z WED.

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE REPORTED FOR MOST
OBSERVATION SITES AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT
BY MIDDAY.

THE ONLY GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN MARINE ZONE 52, AND
THEY ARE ASSOCD WITH A LOW TRACKING N TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AS DISCUSSED BELOW.

A 995 MB LOW 300 NM SSE OF SEWARD IS TRACKING NORTH AND
WILL ENTER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ABOUT 08Z TONIGHT.
THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE TRANSIT
N.  A SECOND LOW THAT IS ABOUT 800 NM S OF KODIAK HAS CUT OFF
MOST OF THE COLD AIR NEEDED FOR THE CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE.

AN OCFNT IS WRAPPED ARND THE LOW AND IS IN AN ARC ABT 200 NM
OFFSHORE THE PNHDL. THIS OCFNT SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ABT 08Z
TONIGHT.


LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 1048 AM AKDT MON SEP 15 2008

POOR MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM ALONG WITH A WARM CORED LOW
MOVING INTO THE AK GULF ON WED KEPT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FAIRLY
LOW. THE 998 LOW IN THE NW GULF ON TUE CONTINUES IT N TRACK BEFORE
FILLING IN OVER THE INTERIOR. THE 2ND LOW TO THE SOUTH NEAR 45/150
CONTINUES ITS WESTERLY ROUTE. THE 3RD LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS HAS MODEL FORECAST DIVERGING GREATLY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
LOW MORE NORTHERLY AND DEEPER WITH THE ECMWF TRACKING MORES TO THE
SOUTH AND STRENGTHENING LATER ON SAT.

COORDINATION WITH HPC AND PAFC RULED OUT THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN
LESS CONSISTENT. BLENDED THE ECMWF AND CURRENT GRIDS 30/60 TO
KEEP CONSISTENCY. A CONTINUED WET PATTERN FOR SE AK FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DRYING PERIOD LATE SUNDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051.


JBT /

000
FXAK69 PAFG 161241
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
441 AM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE VERIFYING WELL AT 06Z ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. GFS PROGGED CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 996 MB APPEARS TO BE IN THE BALLPARK. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR BY 00Z THU...LIKELY FRAGMENTING
INTO SEVERAL CENTERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
THE INTERIOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE WEST COAST ZONES. RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR INTO WED NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA TO GREAT
BEAR LAKE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 00Z
SAT. THIS MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR...WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT. EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT IN PKZ240-PKZ245
AND POSSIBLY IN AKZ204. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z THU OVER PKZ240...AND INTO FRI OVER PKZ245. NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT IN PKZ210-PKZ220 LATE WED
NIGHT OR EARLY THU.

BY NEXT SUN...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ARCTIC
ZONES...WEST COAST...AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AS A BROAD UPPER
LOW BECOMES SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. 1000-850 MB LAYER MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C FOR THE ARCTIC-BROOKS
RANGE-WEST COAST AND THE WEST HALF OF THE INTERIOR...MEANING
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
BE SNOW.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WED NIGHT. SEAS TO ABOUT
5 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THE FORECAST WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING SURF IN THIS AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.



&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.


&&

$$

RF SEP 08

000
FXAK68 PAFC 161204
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS A 994 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. COPIOUS
RAIN SURROUNDS THE LOW ALONG WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS OUT AHEAD AND NORTH OF THE LOW AND IS SPREADING
RAIN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

COMPLEX SETUP OUT WEST THIS MORNING...WITH A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT
LOW SOUTH OF ADAK...A WEAK LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING...AND AN OLD
WEAK VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW OUT WEST AS IT
IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE POSITION WITH REGARDS TO THE JET STREAM
OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. IN THE
EAST...0Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE CURRENT LOW IN THE
GULF AND ITS MOVEMENT INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...BUT ARE HAVING A
BIT MORE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT LOW. MODELS ARE JUST NOW COMING INTO
BETTER...BUT STILL NOT PERFECT...AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST TOWARD KODIAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR WITH ALL MODELS. 0Z RUNS HAVE CONVERGED TO
TRACK THE LOW NEAR OR OVER KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY...AND QUITE STRONG
TO AROUND 980 MB. 0Z GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN HAVING THE SAME LOCATION
WITH THIS LOW FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW (OVER KODIAK)...WHILE ALL 12Z
GFS RUNS INTERESTINGLY HAVE HAD A DIFFERENT SOLUTION (BRISTOL
BAY)...JUST AN EXAMPLE OF THE WACKY MODEL BEHAVIOR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A 994 MB GALE FORCE LOW IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF TODAY AND
WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY WEDNESDAY. UNLIKE SOME
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL EASILY SPREAD RAIN OVER THE KENAI
AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO INLAND AREAS. RAIN HAS ALREADY BEGUN FROM
HOMER TO ANCHORAGE AND WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. IF IT WERE A MONTH LATER...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR
SNOW OVER INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT NOT QUITE YET. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL BE RIDING ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS STRENGTHENING ALL ALONG. THIS LOW WILL REACH KODIAK ISLAND
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW. THE BREAK BETWEEN
THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND THE FIRST LOW WILL BE VERY
BRIEF...AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE LATELY. THE SECOND LOW HAS A
BETTER CHANCE OF SPREADING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THAN THE
FIRST LOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ADAK THIS MORNING WILL RIDE
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...STRENGTHENING ALL
ALONG. A WEAK LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING MOVING TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS
WILL DISSIPATE AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE STRONGER ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FOR THE EXTENDED...GENERALLY SPEAKING...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OR KODIAK ISLAND WATERS WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKEN
BUT BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY MOVING OUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MAINLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL USHER
IN THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO SETUP OVER THE EASTERN BERING WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 130 132 150 155 170 351.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY SEP 08

000
FXAK68 PAFC 152345
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT MON SEP 15 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MID TO LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTION HAVE BECOME PROBLEMATIC AS THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FAR IN AND OUT OF FAVOR OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE CURRENT SET OF MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
BERING SEA, THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT
POINT THE MODEL SOLUTION DIVERGE SO RADICALLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST ARE FAIRLY LOW, THOUGH THE ECMWF STILL HAS A BETTER SOLUTION
THAN THE GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE IN-BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS AT THE
MOMENT WITH A OLD STORM SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND DISSIPATING AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE STATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC.

AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE CENTRAL
MAINLAND THOUGH A COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS STARTING
TO PUSH IT EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOWER OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN ALASKA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS THROUGH
THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF TUESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA WITH LESSER AMOUNT FALLING OVER THE
REST OF SOUTNCENTRAL MAINLAND. RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF AND OUTER KODIAK ISLAND WATERS TONIGHT.

A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK
ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS STILL IN DOUBT DUE CONFLICTING MODEL
SOLUTION THOUGH THE ECWMF IS STILL PREFERRED BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE
STORM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120, 130, 132
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 08

000
FXAK69 PAFG 152306
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 PM AKDT MON SEP 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE NEXT FEATURE TO AFFECT MAINLAND ALASKA...THE 998 MB LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THEY ALL HAVE THIS THING MOVING
NORTH TO BE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AT 4AM WED...THEN LIFTING
OUT DURING THE DAY TO BE MAINLY ALOFT IN THE KALTAG-HUSLIA AREA
AT 4PM WED. DOWNSLOPE IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG IN ADVANCE OF IT...
AND PRETTY MUCH DISAPPEARS AS IT LIFTS OUT...SO RAIN IS LIKELY
EVEN IN THE LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE WED MORNING. ON THE OTHER
HAND...WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS EITHER (WELL, MAYBE LOCALLY).

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT CONCERNING THE LOW FOLLOWING THIS ONE (IN
THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA THU MORNING)...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. NO
DRAMATIC CHANGE IN PATTERN IN THIS END OF THE STATE. ANOTHER
SHOT OF RAIN LIKELY ON FRI.

THE WIND CONDITIONS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST WILL PERSIST (AND MAYBE GET WORSE TUE NIGHT AND WED).
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PERSISTING NORTH OF THE COAST...AND A
DECREASE IN PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AS THESE LOWS MOVE IN...
WE EXPECT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA.
WORST CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME THOUGH.

EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS AREAS IN AREAS 240 AND245 TUE NIGHT - WED
NIGHT...AND MAYBE IN AREA 235 WED - WED NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO ISSUES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DJH SEP 08

000
FXAK67 PAJK 151851
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1048 AM AKDT MON SEP 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AND
SE AK THRU THIS EVENING...THEN DRIFT E OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND TUE. LOW PRES NEAR 50/149 WILL TRACK N INTO THE SW GULF
TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT TO THE NW GULF TUE. STALLED WEAK FRONT OVER
THE ERN GULF AND S-CENTRAL SE AK WILL LIFT N THRU THE NRN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE N OF THE AREA TUE.
OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF TUE. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE N INTO THE
SRN AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOVE E OF THE SRN AREA
TUE.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES/AMTS OVER THE AREA
THRU TUE. ATTM...VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCURRING IN
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PANHANDLE NEAR THE WEAK FRONT. AS THE
FRONT LIFTS N...THIS PRECIP SHOULD MOVE N WITH IT TO THE NRN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE MAIN
PANHANDLE AREA FROM THIS. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING N INTO THE SRN
AREA WILL BRING MORE PRECIP TO THEM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP FROM THIS
EITHER. SHOULD SEE PRECIP THERE DIMINISH TUE ONCE SHORTWAVE MOVES
E OF THERE.

 THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE
THE NE GULF COAST AS A STRONGER PART OF THE FRONT MOVES N AND THE
LOW MOVES N INTO THE SW GULF. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE S-SW WHICH
IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP IN THAT
AREA. THINK MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE PAYA AREA
TONIGHT THEN RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY TUE AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SW AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SSE...A
BETTER UPSLOPE COMPONENT THAN THE ESE FLOW TONIGHT.

 FOR THE MARINE AREAS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST IN THE
WESTERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE A BARRIER JET WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND REMAIN TUE. THINKING MIN GALES WILL OCCUR IN
PKZ052...WITH SCA LEVEL WINDS IN PKZ051 AND PKZ043 NEAR CAPE
FAIRWEATHER TONIGHT. SCA WINDS MAY GET INTO THE REMAINDER OF
PKZ043 TUE AS OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES IN THERE. WILL SEE SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN WRN PKZ310 AS WELL TONIGHT THEN REACH ERN PKZ310 TUE.
FOR THE INNER CHANNELS...WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG THRU
MOST PLACES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT MAY GET
TO 20 KT AS ELY PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIND
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS TUE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING SCA LEVEL
WINDS MOST PLACES...ALTHOUGH NRN LYNN CANAL COULD GET THERE TUE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...POOR MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM ALONG WITH A
WARM CORED LOW MOVING INTO THE AK GULF ON WED KEPT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW. THE 998 LOW IN THE NW GULF ON TUE
CONTINUES IT N TRACK BEFORE FILLING IN OVER THE INTERIOR. THE 2ND
LOW TO THE SOUTH NEAR 45/150 CONTINUES ITS WESTERLY ROUTE. THE
3RD LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS HAS MODEL FORECAST
DIVERGING GREATLY. THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW MORE NORTHERLY AND
DEEPER WITH THE ECMWF TRACKING MORES TO THE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHENING LATER ON SAT.

COORDINATION WITH HPC AND PAFC RULED OUT THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN
LESS CONSISTENT. BLENDED THE ECMWF AND CURRENT GRIDS 30/60 TO
KEEP CONSISTENCY. A CONTINUED WET PATTERN FOR SE AK FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DRYING PERIOD LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

RWT/PRB