000
FXUS63 KGRB 101004
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
504 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FORECAST CONCERNS MAINLY ON MORNING PERIOD AS AREA OF CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OVER STATE EARLY THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF
SIG WAA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AND DRY AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER WESTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE TO TROF DEEPENING OVER THE
WEST.

850 BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE STATE AT THIS
TIME...WITH BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STAYING TO OUR WEST. MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUDS TO SHIFT NORTH RAPIDLY THIS AM...THOUGH SATELLITE
NOT DEMONSTRATING THIS TREND. WILL CARRY CLOUDS LONGER IN GRIDS
FOR TODAY...TAPERING TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NORTH WITH CLOUDS
HANGING IN LONGER. UPDATE EARLIER IN SHIFT ADDED SPRINKLES
CURRENTLY FALLING OUT OF THE MID LEVEL DECK...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SPRINKLES INTO THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER
GUIDANCE ON SAT. WITH WIND SHIFT AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST AND MORE LIMITED MIXING TODAY...NOT EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO
DROP AS FAR AS YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF PRECIP SUNDAY/MONDAY AND HIGH
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF THE 500MB FLOW THIS
WEEKEND. A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SETUP BY 00Z
SUNDAY. BOTH ALSO SHOW A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE CLOSED 500MB LOW
EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEKEND.

WILL KEEP ALL OF THE CWA DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NW CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY. GFS HAS EVEN BACKED AWAY FROM BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON SUNDAY.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO 12-15C...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE NORTH.

ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW...WITH THE SURFACE LOW ENTERING
MANITOBA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WESTERN MINNESOTA
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. FIRST QUESTION FOR MONDAY IS HOW WARM WE WILL
GET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 11-13C. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
TREND IS HIGHER AND MODELS USUALLY UNDER FORECAST THE WARM AIR
PUSH OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES AT NIGHT.

SECOND QUESTION FOR MONDAY IS HOW FAR THE SHOWERS CAN ADVANCE
EAST. KEPT THE EASTERN CWA DRY DURING THE MORNING AS COLD FRONT
STILL WELL OF TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM
AND CANADIAN ARE COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
KEEPING THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST. SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

STILL SOME QUESTIONS FOR TUESDAY AS THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT...BUT
THE ECMWF SWINGS ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT. GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER FOR THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE TUESDAY FORWARD.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH MID
CLOUDS/SPRINKLES EXITING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITIES WILL APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT IN CENTRAL WI...IMPROVING
TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT EAST AND FAR NORTH. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
TE/BERSCH

000
FXUS63 KARX 100806 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

07Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOWING A BLANKET
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR SHOWING
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY BACK INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH RUC 600MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.

10.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH 48
HOURS FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS AS LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST COAST INTO
THe GREAT LAKES REGION. AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE GETS EJECTED ACROSS
MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING TAKING THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITH IT. BOTH
NAM AND GFS SHOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS INITIALLY THIS MORNING TO ALSO
LIFT NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850MB
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOWING WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO NEAR 30
MPH ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
AND A LITTLE LESSER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS EXPECT MID 20S DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN IN AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 94 ONCE AGAIN...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SHOULD PRECLUDE TO MUCH
OF A DROP IN DEWPOINTS OUT THERE. WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND +10 CELSIUS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH 850MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR +14 CELSIUS BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH TROUGH REMAINING WELL WEST OF
THE AREA ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY AND THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 70S AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S IN THE FAVORED VALLEY
LOCATIONS. TROUGH EDGES CLOSER SUNDAY...BUT MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT INDICATED INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS GRIDDED
FORECAST SHOWS LOWER END POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH AND
THIS LOOKS ON TRACK. BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...
WHICH IS RATHER ANOMALOUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. AGAIN...
PREVIOUS DATABASE HAS THIS WELL TRENDED. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
TEMPERED A LITTLE BY THE THICKENING CLOUDS...BUT STILL QUITE MILD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ONLY CHANGES MADE IN THIS TIME FRAME WAS FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD.
BOTH THE 10.00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOWING PRECIPITATION LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE 10.00Z GS PUSHES IT FURTHER EAST OF THE
AREA. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES WILL RE-INTRODUCE LOW POPS FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SIDING WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FORCING/LIFT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE BKN/OVC MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE NORTH AS
WELL...WITH ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT INTO SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SFC HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING WILL MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
NEAR 850MB FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20KTS G20-25KTS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED
TONIGHT AND ANY FOG THREAT TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON

NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW MIXING TO 850MB THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
LIKELY LOWER THE SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START
TO BRING SOME RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE THE LAST
AREAS TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY. AS A RESULT...THESE
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN THE 20S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS. WITH A MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS STILL
A BIT OF CONCERN FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION - RRS
SHORT AND LONG TERM - RABERDING
FIRE WEATHER - RABERDING

000
FXUS63 KMKX 100759
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLATED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES
REGION PER RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO SET UP...BECOMING EAST...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS FOR TODAY INTO
THE WEEKEND PER RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL FORECASTS. WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WE WILL
SEE A NICE WARM-UP BACK UP INTO THE 70S...AND PUSH THE 80 MARK
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF MY COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW DEGREES
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE-BREEZE COMPONENT. SAME STORY
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS...BUT PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLOUDS SINCE MODELS
HINT AT A COUPLE WEAK RIPPLES ALOFT COMING THROUGH WI.

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE
NORTHEAST THROGH DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY...A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST ACROSS WI ON MON. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND RETURN OF SURFACE
MOISTURE IS ENUF FOR PRECIP CHANCES MON AND MON NGT. FOR TUE THE
MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. FOR TUESDAY...THE GFS DRIES OUT
SOUTHERN WI WITH SURFACE RIDGE FROM M KS TO SOUTHERN WI...AND NO
HANG- BACK UPPER TROF. BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUE
INTO TUE NGT AS HANG- BACK UPPER TROF IS KICKED NORTHEAST TOWARD
WI. ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT MONDAY/S COLD FRONT HANGS UP IN NORTHERN
IL....WITH OVERRUNNING/FRONTO-FORCING GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SOUTHERN WI TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SO FOR NOW WILL AT LEAST KEEP A
CHC OF PRECIP GOING FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...34
AVIATION/MARINE...05

000
FXUS63 KARX 092054 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THESE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT 3 PM...THE WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING FROM WYOMING NORTHEAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO OUR AREA. KARX RADAR IS SHOWING SEVERAL WEST-EAST ORIENTED
LINES FROM NORTHERN IOWA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THESE
SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP IN A STRONG 600 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC
BAND LOCATED FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO CHICAGO ILLINOIS. WITH VERY
DRY AIR BELOW THESE CLOUDS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE THE RAIN REACHES THE GROUND.
HOWEVER WITH SAID...WE HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF SPRINKLES IN THE
ROCHESTER AREA. DUE TO THIS...WE HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF AN EAU CLAIRE TO MONROE WISCONSIN.

WITH GOOD MIXING...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH DAYS. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
16C TO 18C RANGE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 14C TO 16C RANGE
ON SATURDAY...WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S. A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN GET INTO THE LOWER 80S.

AS A WEAK 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A FEW OF THE SREF MEMBERS
SUGGEST THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY GET INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...I KEPT THESE AREAS DRY FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD.

LOOKING AT THE TROPICAL FORCING FEATURES MUCH OF THE ENERGY
RESIDES IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE BETWEEN 20 DEGREES WEST AND
120 DEGREES WEST. THIS INCLUDES THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS LOCATED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC /CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE NORBERT AND TROPICAL
STORM ODILE/. LOOKING AT THE WHEELER AND HENDON PHASE PLOTS...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE NOT MUCH OF A MADDEN JULIAN SIGNAL. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT THE TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS...YOU MAY ARGUE THAT THERE IS
WEAK MADDEN JULIAN SIGNAL JUST APPROACHING WEST AFRICA. AS THIS
SYSTEM EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH 29C WATERS ACROSS THE INDIAN
OCEAN...I WOULD EXPECT TO START TO SEE A CONVECTIVE FLARE UP
ACROSS THIS REGION TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK AT THIS TIME TO HAVE
MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE IN THIS PART OF WORLD. AT THIS TIME...MUCH OF
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IS PROBABLY IS A
RESULT OF SOME ROSSBY WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MID LATITUDES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS JET IS FORECAST TO
COLLAPSE AND RETREAT WESTWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL START TO QUICKLY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THE 09.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

PRIOR TO THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE 500 MB FEATURES OCCURRING...
WE SHOULD SEE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT STORM AFFECT THE INTER MOUNTAIN
REGION...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...EASTERN MONTANA...AND WYOMING. MEANWHILE VERY HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS POSSIBLE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE 500 MB LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY TO OUR WEST AND START TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THIS
SAID...THERE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER STRONG 850 MB JET /1.5 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/...850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX
/ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MUCH OF THE ABNORMALITIES IN MOISTURE
IS FROM HURRICANE NORBERT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK
POSSIBLE FROM THIS FRONT. IF THERE IS ANY SEVERE WEATHER...I WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS IS MAINLY A
RESULT OF A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN TO NORMAL AND WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PRIMARY CONCERNS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT AIRPORTS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARD SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS MIXING WANES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...ALONG
WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY AT AIRPORTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 6-8KFT. DUE TO CLOUDS...PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT
FOG AT KLSE APPEAR TO BE LOW FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AFTERNOON

AS WE MIX ON FRIDAY...DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER THE SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE
MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BRING SOME RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE THE LAST AREAS TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY. AS A RESULT...THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN THE 20S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS. WITH A
MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
CONCERN FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION - SRT
SHORT AND LONG TERM - BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER - BOYNE

000
FXUS63 KARX 092042
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THESE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT 3 PM...THE WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING FROM WYOMING NORTHEAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO OUR AREA. KARX RADAR IS SHOWING SEVERAL WEST-EAST ORIENTED
LINES FROM NORTHERN IOWA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THESE
SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP IN A STRONG 600 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC
BAND LOCATED FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO CHICAGO ILLINOIS. WITH VERY
DRY AIR BELOW THESE CLOUDS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE THE RAIN REACHES THE GROUND.
HOWEVER WITH SAID...WE HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF SPRINKLES IN THE
ROCHESTER AREA. DUE TO THIS...WE HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF AN EAU CLAIRE TO MONROE WISCONSIN.

WITH GOOD MIXING...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH DAYS. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
16C TO 18C RANGE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 14C TO 16C RANGE
ON SATURDAY...WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S. A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN GET INTO THE LOWER 80S.

AS A WEAK 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A FEW OF THE SREF MEMBERS
SUGGEST THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY GET INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...I KEPT THESE AREAS DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD.

LOOKING AT THE TROPICAL FORCING FEATURES MUCH OF THE ENERGY
RESIDES IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE BETWEEN 20 DEGREES WEST AND
120 DEGREES WEST. THIS INCLUDES THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS LOCATED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC /CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE NORBERT AND TROPICAL
STORM ODILE/. LOOKING AT THE WHEELER AND HENDON PHASE PLOTS...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE NOT MUCH OF A MADDEN JULIAN SIGNAL. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT THE TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS...YOU MAY ARGUE THAT THERE IS
WEAK MADDEN JULIAN SIGNAL JUST APPROACHING WEST AFRICA. AS THIS
SYSTEM EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH 29C WATERS ACROSS THE INDIAN
OCEAN...I WOULD EXPECT TO START TO SEE A CONVECTIVE FLARE UP
ACROSS THIS REGION TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK AT THIS TIME TO HAVE
MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE IN PART OF WORLD. AT THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IS PROBABLY IS A
RESULT OF SOME ROSSBY WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MID LATITUDES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS JET IS FORECAST TO
COLLAPSE AND RETREAT WESTWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL START TO QUICKLY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THE 09.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

PRIOR TO THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE 500 MB FEATURES OCCURRING...
WE SHOULD SEE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT STORM AFFECT THE INTER MOUNTAIN
REGION...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...EASTERN MONTANA...AND WYOMING. MEANWHILE VERY HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS POSSIBLE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE 500 MB LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY TO OUR WEST AND START TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THIS
SAID...THERE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER STRONG 850 MB JET /1.5 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/...850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX
/ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. MUCH OF THE ABNORMALITIES IN MOISTURE IS FROM HURRICANE
NORBERT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE FROM THIS
FRONT. IF THERE IS ANY SEVERE WEATHER...I WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE
NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS IS MAINLY A RESULT OF A SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL AND DRY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PRIMARY CONCERNS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT AIRPORTS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARD SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS MIXING WANES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...ALONG
WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY AT AIRPORTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 6-8KFT. DUE TO CLOUDS...PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT
FOG AT KLSE APPEAR TO BE LOW FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AFTERNOON

AS WE MIX ON FRIDAY...DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER THE SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE
MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BRING SOME RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE THE LAST AREAS TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY. AS A RESULT...THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN THE 20S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS. WITH A
MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
CONCERN FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION - SRT
SHORT AND LONG TERM - BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER - BOYNE

000
FXUS63 KMKX 092039
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008

FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING WESTERN
TROUGH.

.SHORT TERM...
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR MID DECK AND A FEW ACCAS SHOWERS
WITH 40 KT SSWLY 700 MB FLOW RUNNING OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. MORE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF WI AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING WRN TROF. QUIET NIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES UNDER ELONGATED RIDGE OF SFC HI PRESSURE. SFC 2 METER
DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 20S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DEW POINTS UP IN THE MID 30S. MID DECK
EARLY AND ENOUGH MIXING THRU THE NIGHT FOR LOW TEMPS TO STAY AT MOS
GUIDANCE LEVELS...BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WAA BEGINS IN EARNEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WRN TROF DEEPENS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING DRY ADIABATICALLY UP TO +14C TO
+15C 925 MB TEMPS FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT LOW 70 HIGH TEMPS AWAY FROM
LAKE...WITH MID-UPPER 60S IN LAKE SHORE COUNTIES. ENOUGH GRADIENT
AND RISING DEW POINTS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LOWS IN THE LOW 50S...WITH A
FEW OUTLYING LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WITH SOUTH SFC FLOW AND
925 MB TEMPS UP TO +17C IN WRN CWA HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TO NEAR
80. SERLY WINDS WILL HOLD HI/S IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE
KETTLE MORAINE.

.LONG TERM...
MID RANGE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
CLOSED WESTERN U.S. 500MB LOW. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF +13C 850 MB
TEMPS IN SLY FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM COULD BRING 80 DEGREE TEMPS TO SRN
WI SUNDAY...ESP WRN CWA. WILL IGNORE OVERDONE LEAD SHORT WAVE ON GFS
AND HOLD OFF PCPN UNTIL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY IN WRN CWA...THEN ACROSS
REST OF CWA MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AS LLJ
POINTS AT CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC IN FOR TUE AS SRN FRINGE OF 500
MB COLD POOL BRUSHES CWA. DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS ZONAL
FLOW HOLDS SHORT WAVE ENERGY NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER...THO WEAK 850
MB COLD AIR ADVECTION COOLS TEMPS TO JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SRN WI TNT.
SELY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON FRI AS A LARGE LOW PRES
AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TNT AND FRI WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...09
AVIATION/MARINE...20

000
FXUS63 KGRB 092031
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRICK FOR TONIGHT WILL
BE HOW LOW TEMPERATURES FALL. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS WILL BE THE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST AND HOW QUICK WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER GUIDANCE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE
LAST TO ARRIVE. WENT BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND THE MUCH WARMER
MEX GUIDANCE WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FWC/MET GUIDANCE OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE FIRST TO ARRIVE.
ALSO DID INCLUDE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE NORTHWEST PARTLY CLOUDY WITH EVERYONE ELSE SUNNY OR MOSTLY
SUNNY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM GUIDANCE SINCE THEY ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE AT MOST SITES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
TIMING PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF THE 500MB
FLOW...RESULTING IN A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
THE STATE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES.
ONCE THE LOW DEVELOPS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST
TOWARD MANITOBA AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME MIDDLE 70S IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 12Z GFS SHOWED QPF OVER PART OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS HAD ALSO SHOWN. 12Z NAM
DID NOT SHOW THIS...HPC HAD BELOW NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY ON THE
MAX/MIN/POP PROG AND THE SHORT WAVE DEPICTED BY THE GFS MIGHT BE A
BIT TOO STRONG...SO THAT PERIOD HAS BEEN LEFT DRY. THIS FITS IN
PRETTY WELL WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST GRIDS. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THEN ON MONDAY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH WISCONSIN. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT SINCE THE MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED MUCH OF THEIR QPF BEHIND
THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL AFTER THE SYSTEM
PASSES.



MG
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPT WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT KGRB...KSUE...KMTW...KOSH...KATW.
&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO WISCONSIN.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY. HUMIDITY READINGS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHEST
GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
ECKBERG/MG

000
FXUS63 KGRB 090931
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
431 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

9Z ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG GRADIENT OVER STATE
WITH 120+ JET PUSHING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI. CONCERNS
WITH FORECAST ON TODAY AS DRY AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SUBSIDENCE AND SUNSHINE TO LEAD TO MIXING TO NEAR 850MB. THIS
LEADS TO DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL WI ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTER OF HIGH TO BE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DRY AIR IN PLACE...WILL SEE A GOOD TEMP DROP. LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH...WEST
OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST...THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE OVER STATE EXPECTED TO
KEEP PCPN WITH FEATURE FURTHER WEST OVER MN THROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERNS
ARE TIMING OF PRECIP AND HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BRING A
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE DAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS 850MB TEMPS REACH
10-13C ACROSS THE CWA. NAM GUIDANCE EVEN BRINGS SOME UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. WILL NOT GO THAT HIGH...BUT NUDGE TEMPS
UP JUST SLIGHTLY. WITH A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AND WATER TEMPS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S...DO EXPECT COOLER
READINGS NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIGHT PRECIP ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS
ENSEMBLE...SREF...CANADIAN...UKMET ARE ALL DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST AS BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO A STATIONARY
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVING NNE...REACHING THE MANITOBA/NORTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY 00Z MONDAY AND A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS
DIFFER ON WHEN TO BRING IN THE RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
SHOW RAIN MOVING IN ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC WI...AS A
VORT MAX CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS BASICALLY
DRY...BUT DOES SHOW A WEAKER VORT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
WISCONSIN. WILL TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW. THINKING IS BEST FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
LOW POPS ACROSS NC WI...CLOSER TO THE VORT AND FRONT. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE VORT MAX MORE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LIKE THE
GFS IS SHOWING.

WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AND SOUTH WINDS. EVEN WITH 850MB TEMPS STILL IN THE
12-13C RANGE AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH...STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

ECMWF IS NOW ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EITHER WAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS...IS ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. LLVL WIND
SHEAR THIS MORNING GIVEN STRONG JET PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI/UPPER MI WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SFC WINDS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
&&

.MARINE...STRONG LLVL WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS
MORNING WITH FREQUENTS GUSTS GREATER THAN 22 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR MASS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TODAY. GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB/BASED ON UPSTREAM
TRENDS...WILL SEE DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S IN SOME OF
THE SANDY AREAS OF CENTRAL WI...TO LOWER 30S OVER THE FOX VALLEY
AND LAKESHORE. IN ADDITION WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 60S LEADS TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
TE/BERSCH

000
FXUS63 KMKX 090908
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
408 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RUC ANALYSIS ARE INDICATING BASICALLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A SURGE OF VERY
DRY AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT
CROSSED WI EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.

NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS...WITH MIXING
UP TO 850MB IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL...WE CAN EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS AT THE SFC. DEWPOINT
MIXING TOOL WITH THE NAM BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WENT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH...USING THE ADJMET...WHICH GIVES DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S IN NORTHWEST CWA TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COORDINATED
WITH ARX.

WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT FROST TO BE A PROBLEM FOR
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY MID CLOUDS PRESENT.

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK IN OVER SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PCPN TO PARTS OF MN AND NORTHERN WI...BUT THE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL SOMETIME MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS/WAA...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ON SAT AND SUN. SOME MID CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BY
SUN WITH THE WAA AND APPROACHING FRONT. THE GFS EVEN HINTS AT
SHOWERS IN THE WAA PATTERN FOR SUN. KEPT MENTION OF PCPN OUT AT THIS
TIME...AS OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHARE THE SAME OPINION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SCT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC
AVIATION/MARINE...05/DAVIS

000
FXUS63 KARX 090831
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
334 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAD LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS
HUDSON BAY CANADA WITH A WEAK TROUGH TRAILING INTO EASTERN WI. IR
SATELLITE SHOWING JUST A FEW DISSIPATING MID CLOUDS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS. TEMPERATURE WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

09.00Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH SUBSIDENT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS BUILDS INTO
THE AREA TODAY. SUNSHINE/SUBSIDENCE/SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE AMPLE MIXING TODAY THROUGH 825MB. MIXING THIS AIR TO THE
SURFACE WILL LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 20S AS WELL AS
PRODUCING POTENTIAL GUSTS AROUND 30KT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-90/I-94 CORRIDOR IN WI WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE GREATEST. THIS OF COURSE WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
FIRE WEATHER AS WELL...SEE SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

WINDS DIE OFF TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD AN
DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. OTHERWISE...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST CO WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO/OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD SOME MID CLOUDS INTO MAINLY NORTH/WEST
SECTIONS WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LIFT WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF STRONGER 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MN WILL
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP ANY SHRA/TS ACTIVITY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 10-14C RANGE FRIDAY SHOULD
PUSH HIGHS EASILY INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY....SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMER AS WELL AS
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH INTO
THE 14-16C RANGE...AND WITH GOOD MIXING ON SOUTH WINDS...SHOULD
PRODUCE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS PUSHING 80
DEGREES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GFS/ECMWF/SREF HAVE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHRA/TS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA. HAVE
MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BASED ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND INTO HUDSON
BAY BY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS STRONG SYSTEM EVENTUALLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHRA/TS CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A BOUT OF DRIER WEATHER. CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDS
APPEAR TO REFLECT WEATHER TRENDS WELL...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. NAM THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...LATCHING ONTO THE BAND ACROSS SD/NEB AT THIS
TIME.  OTHER CONCERN IS WIND POTENTIAL TODAY. VERY DRY AIRMASS...
COMBINED WITH GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...POINTING TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY. GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER OPEN
TERRAIN NEAR KRST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF VALLEY FOG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...PERHAPS AFFECTING KLSE AFTER 09/10Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE BUIDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING A VERY DRY AIRMASS
INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX WELL TODAY...DRAWING
VERY DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON
YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE 15-20 PERCENT
RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
WILL PRODUCE A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH DRYING FUELS.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-90/94 CORRIDOR WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DRAW SLIGHTLY MOISTER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AVIATION...MW

000
FXUS63 KGRB 081940
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND THU. MAIN FCST CHALLENGES TO BE ON TEMPS
AND HOW LOW DEW PTS CAN DROP THU AFTERNOON.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES (ONE NORTH
OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND THE OTHER OVR CNTRL UPR MI) WITH A CDFNT
EXTENDED SWD FROM CNTRL UPR MI THRU CNTRL INDIANA. THERE WAS
ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF OVR WRN MN/SE SD...WITH A WEAK RDG OF HI
PRES SITUATED OVR WRN WI. RADAR MOSAIC DID PICK UP A FEW RETURNS
AHD OF THE SFC TROF WITH AN OCNL SPRINKLE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE WEAK SFC TROF RACES ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND THERE COULD BE
A FEW DROPS OF RAIN AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP. HOWEVER...
A LACK OF FORCING/LIFT AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE
PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF PCPN IN THE FCST. ONCE THE BAND OF MID
CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROF DEPART...SKIES WL GO MOSTLY CLR
FOR THE REMAINDE OF THE NGT AS ATM CONTS TO DRY. THERE IS TOO
MUCH WND ALOFT TO ALLOW DECOUPLING TO OCCUR...THUS TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ABV NORMAL TNGT.

A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOV INTO THE MIDWEST/WRN GREAT
LKS ON THU AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A GOOD AMT OF SUNSHINE. THU WL
ALSO BE A BLUSTERY DAY AS THE PRES GRAD IS TIGHT BETWEEN THE HI
PRES TO OUR SW AND STG LOW PRES NEAR JAMES BAY. DRY AIRMASS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TOWARD THE GROUND BY THU AFTERNOON AND SEND
R.H. VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30S WHICH MAY BE OF SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES. WL MAKE SURE A MENTION OF THIS IS MADE IN
THIS AFTERNOON`S FIRE WX FCST. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT ALL OF NE WI.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN TAKING LOW AMPLITUDE 500MB FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THEN DEVELOPING A DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW IN THE
WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND.

HAVE ATTEMPTED TO KEEP CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND GRIDS FROM
ADJACENT OFFICES. HPC FAVORS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE
THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND LEANS STRONGLY TOWARD THE 00Z GFS. HAD
CONSIDERED POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE 12Z
GFS INDICATED QPF ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
POPS WERE BELOW CHANCE CATEGORY ON HPC MAX/MIN/POP GRAPHIC FOR
SUNDAY. WOULD ALSO HAVE NEEDED TO GET AT LEAST A COUPLE OF OTHER
OFFICES ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA TO MAKE THINGS LOOK SMOOTH...AND MY
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT HAPPENING WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THAT.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE 500MB LOW...AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MOS AND
HPC GUIDANCE HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT WOULD DEFINITELY BE REACHABLE WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES CELSIUS
ACROSS THE STATE. RAINFALL AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU 00Z FRI. MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS TO BE WND SHEAR TNGT AS SUSTAINED WNDS TO 35 KTS ARE
PSBL AS LOW AS 2K FT...AND DEEP LYR MIXING TO ALLOW SFC WNDS TO
GUST TO AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THU AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WNDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WL DIMINISH TNGT...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUE MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST WNDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS MAY ALLOW CONDITIONS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY (ESP
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS).
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INFLUX OF VERY DRY AIR WL SEND DEW PT TEMPS INTO
THE LWR 30S ACROSS CNTRL WI AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS ERN WI THU
AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR...COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND
GUSTY WEST WNDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...MAY RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AND WL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
KALLAS/MG

000
FXUS63 KMKX 081932
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
232 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT
WINDS OF 25 KNOTS ABOVE SHALLOW DEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD
KEEP WINDS UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH FROST POTENTIAL.

ZONAL JET ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT DOES UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY.

GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...SOME SMALL FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT
...BUT TEMPS SHOULD START OUT TOO WARM...AND NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS POTENTIAL.

GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS A RATHER DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW
IN LOW LEVELS.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH GFS HAVING A
STRONGER AND SLOWER TO EJECT UPPER LOW THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. 06Z
DGEX IS A BLEND...BUT MORE TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. NEW 12Z ECMWF IS
CLOSER TO 06Z DGEX...AND WILL BE USED AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. AS
A RESULT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...

MAIN PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAINLY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN BEST DYNAMICS MAINLY NORTH...AND
PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...WILL GO WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION.

PREFER THE ECMWF/DGEX SOLUTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LESS OF
A COLD CORE UPPER LOW...AND MORE TOWARD A QUICKER RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW. AS SUCH WILL TREND A BIT WARMER WITH THE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

A DRY WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SRN WI TNT AND THU. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...20/GEHRING

000
FXUS63 KARX 081911
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
210 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING EAST INTO
NORTHERN MN...PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/SFC
FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS. TRENDS AND 08.12Z GFS/NAM
MODEL RUNS TAKE THIS SYSTEM DUE EAST...KEEPING THE CLOUDS/PCPN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OUT WEST...A TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST...DEEPENING AS A 100+
KT 300 MB JET DRIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
STRENGTHENING TROUGH LEADS TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE
EAST...WHICH SHOULD BE THE FORECAST AREAS/S MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT.

WITH THE RIDGE WILL COME MILDER TEMPERATURES...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM
FROM AROUND 6 C AT 00Z FRI TO 14 C BY 00Z SUN. EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A WEEKEND IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

HELPING WITH THE WARMING WILL BE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SOME DRIER AIR. ON THU...DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL ADVECT IN FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SOME AFTERNOON MIXING LEADING TO EVEN
LOWER VALUES. THIS SHOULD AID THE WARMING FOR THU/FRI...BUT COULD
LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FOR MORE ON THAT...SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AS MENTIONED...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THAT WEST
COAST TROUGH AND A DEPARTING SFC HIGH...RESULTING IN STRONGER
WINDS.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 850 MB BOTH
THU/FRI...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY/BREEZY CONDITIONS. FRI
APPEARS TO BE THE MORE WINDY OF THE TWO. THE WIND FIELD TURNS FROM
THE WEST ON THU TO SOUTHEAST ON FRI AND MORE SOUTHERLY ON
SAT...BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW LAYERS AS IT DOES.
THIS WILL HELP PULL THAT MILD/WARM AIR NORTHWARD.

BY SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BEING TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA...LEADING TO MORE CLOUDS AND THE RETURN OF SOME
RAIN CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...DEVELOPING A STRONG CLOSED
500 MB LOW OVER THE ROCKIES...WHILE AMPLIFYING A RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN HOW QUICKLY THE MODELS PUSH THIS
SYSTEM EAST...WITH THE 08.00Z ECMWF QUICKLY SHIFTING THE LOW
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...LEAVING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IN A NARROW TROUGH TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE 08.06Z
GFS HOLDS ONTO THE LOW...AND IS MUCH SLOWER AS IT SLIDES THE 500 MB
FEATURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUES. THE EC HAS BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THIS QUICKER...PROGRESSIVE WEAKER SOLUTION OVER ITS LAST FEW
RUNS...WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT RELATIVELY WITH THE
LOW AND ITS MOVEMENT. THE BULK OF THE 06Z ENSEMBLES SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...BECAUSE THE GFS IS MORE STACKED AND
STRONGER...ITS FRONT PULLS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT. THE EC BRINGS ITS FRONT THROUGH IN THE SAME
TIME FRAME...BUT LOOKS TO LAY UP THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR
TUES...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PCPN. OVERALL...THEY DO AGREE ON
BRINGING SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION...WITH
MONDAY BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE. HOW QUICKLY THESE CHANCES CLEAR OUT
ARE UNCERTAIN THOUGH. ALSO...THE GFS WOULD BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO THE EC...AND LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL TEMPER
BACK ITS INFLUX OF COLDER AIR...OPTING MORE FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
IT AND IN THE EC IN THIS STEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH FRIDAY

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATION WILL BE SOME WIND DIRECTION CHANGES WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE FLOW
BACK TO SWLY THIS AFTN/EVENING AT BOTH SITES BEFORE GOING BACK
WLY/NWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR AND RATHER COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT GOOD MIXING AND DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTS
ON THURSDAY AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS /16Z/.  COULD SEE 20KT GUSTS
AT KRST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A LITTLE LESS IN KLSE. SOME SCT
10-15KFT CLOUDS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND LITTLE ELSE. GUSTY WINDS
TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BUT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS WINDS
BACK ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF MAJOR STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING FAR TO THE
WEST.

BINAU

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A SFC HIGH MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 20-30S OVER
MT/WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THU WITH THE SFC
HIGH. EVEN DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SFC DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTES THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. TDS IN THE
UPPER 20S FOR AREAS NORTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 94 SEEM LIKELY AT THIS
MOMENT...LEADING TO SOME RATHER LOW MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.
MODELS POINT TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY AS THE WIND
TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF THE REBOUND ISN/T AS QUICK
AS THE MODELS DEPICT...WITH PROGGED DEWPOINTS INTO THE
40S...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COULD BE DANGEROUSLY LOW AGAIN. ON TOP OF
THE DRYING WILL COME AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIXING...LEADING TO BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIER DAY
COMPARED TO THU. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE SAT...BUT
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 50S BY THIS TIME.
OVERALL...THU/FRI POSE A HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

RIECK