[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200233
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM EAST OFF
FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AS THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATL IMAGERY IS
SHOWING SOME SC MAKING DECENT WESTWARD MOVEMENT THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. WE WILL REMOVE EVENING WORDING. WE DROPPED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SWRN NJ AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT SLOWLY WEAK AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THE CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN SAT MORNING
SHOULD BREAK BY AFTN, BUT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SOME
REFORMATION OF THE CLOUDS. ON SUNDAY, STRATOCU SHOULD ALSO FORM IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SUNDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY THIS FRONT LOOKED
MOISTURE STARVED. HOWEVER, THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO FORM JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE DUE TO CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO
MAINLY NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A NEW AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MORE COOL AIR.
MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK OK FOR THE MINS, BUT FOR THE MAX TEMPS,
THEY LOOK TOO HIGH, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT TRACK RECORD
OF BEING TOO HIGH ON THE MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY,
BUT STILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION. WITHOUT ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT, THIS
SHOULD MEAN MORE DRY WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PC SKIES SOUTH, BUT CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, IT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH INTO THURSDAY. THEN THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETREAT ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO ALLOW A NORTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA AND
THEN HEADS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA WITH A THREAT OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COULD COME BACK AT EVEN LOWER LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN AFFECT
PLACES AS FAR WEST AS KRDG AND KABE. MOS GUIDANCE WAS NOT UNANIMOUS,
WITH THE GFS MOS THE MOST EXAGGERATED AT SHOWING THIS, BUT THE ETA
MOS ACTUALLY HINTED AT THIS TOWARD AND AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL.
THE NAM BUFKIT DATA ACTUALLY DID SHOW THIS BETTER, EVEN INDICATING
PRETTY LOW MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT.
SO, THE RESULT WAS THAT BROKEN MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE BROUGHT
INTO THE TAF SITES TOWARD 04Z, WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER OVERCAST
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. FOR KACY
AND KMIV, THE BASES WILL BE CARRIED EVEN LOWER, AROUND 1 THOUSAND
FEET. ALSO, A MENTION OF FOG WILL BE USED FOR KACY AND KMIV
DEPENDING ON WHAT ACTUALLY COMES OFF THE OCEAN. WITH SOME RADIATION
OCCURRING INLAND TONIGHT, A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG WAS ALSO USED FOR
KRDG AND KABE WHERE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF TO 3 KNOTS OR LESS.
THEN, CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO LIFT AND SEPARATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
TAKES ITS EFFECT BY LATE MORNING. BUT, AMOUNTS WERE STILL KEPT IN
THE BROKEN RANGE THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW FOR SIMPLICITY`S SAKE (EXCEPT
FOR KABE AND KRDG, WHERE SCATTERED WAS USED).
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEAST AND LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT AS
PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATION OCCURS, THEN VEER BACK TO EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOUPLES SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BETTER
INFLUENCE OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A LIGHTER
ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLY LESS CLOUDINESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, BUT IF THERE ARE ANY MORE PERIODS OF PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW,
THIS COULD YIELD MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND THE
LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF TONIGHT, BUT
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON DELAWARE BAY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY
REACHING 25 KNOTS, AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON THE
OCEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND, IT WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE 25 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. WAVEWATCH HAS THE WORST
OF THE SEAS TONIGHT, BUMPING THEM UP TO 10 FEET AT BUOY 44009 (WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT 9 FEET), THEN GRADUALLY DROPS THEM OFF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT CONTINUES THE 5 AND 6 FOOT
SEAS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING THEM A LITTLE BIT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS EXTENSION IN TIME WILL MATCH OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBOR.
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. THEN, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT
TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT
SITUATION.
RIP CURRENT...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RESULTED IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY, AND THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH RISK REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 8:00 PM. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER US A BIT SATURDAY, BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE RISK WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE, AND
POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HIGH SATURDAY ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE. BEING THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED
WITH LIFE GUARDS, IT MIGHT BE BEST TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER SATURDAY
AS WELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BUT
SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS MEANS THAT THE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE A BIT
LESS THAN TODAY WHEN WE HAD SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. HOWEVER,
SINCE DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SATURDAY AND ALSO THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE A BIT LOW, IT LOOKS VERY QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER MINOR FLOODING WILL AGAIN OCCUR SATURDAY SO THE MINOR
FLOODING HEADLINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
TIDES...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
[top]
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200208
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1008 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MAINE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THE FARTHER INLAND YOU GO. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE RGN FROM THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER (ESP COASTAL ZONES). LOOK FOR MINS IN THE
UPR 40S/MID 50S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE SE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE DAY OVER THE ERN
THIRD. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING INLAND AND
SHOULD BREAK UP SOME AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MOISTURE HOLDS ALONG
THE COAST (ESP SE CWA) LEADING TO CLDY TO MO/CLDY WRDG FOR THE
DAY. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN RATHER STAGNANT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S
EAST OF I-95 WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND (LESS CLOUDS).
LEANING TWRDS NAM SOLN WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE APPROACH TO CHCS OF
PRECIP. WILL HOLD POPS TO THE IMMEDIATE SE COAST (BUT RATHER LOW
CHCS) SAT AFTN IN SAT NIGHT. LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW TO
LWR/MID 60S SE.
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL..UPR 70S/
LWR 80S...WITH PTLY TO MO SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WITH UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND MVG OVERHEAD BY
WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IN THE EXTENDED IS WHAT TO DO WITH
A WEAK LOW OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING IT JUST OFF
THE GA/FL COAST FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WEEK WHILE THE EURO MVS IT
NORTH TOWARDS THE NC COAST FRI NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RA IN OUR EXTREME SE ZONES FOR SOME OF THE
WEEK...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRI MORNING IN LINE WITH THE EURO AND
HPC GUIDANCE.
REGARDLESS OF HOW FAST (OR IF) THE LOW MVS TOWARDS THE AREA...A
CONSISTENT E/NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS PRETTY SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK...MID TO UPR 70S FOR HIGHS AND 55-60 DEGREES FOR LOWS WHICH
IS RIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA AREA AND LOW
PRSSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NE FLOW ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK. THE WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH SAT...MAINLY
AT ORF AND ECG. THE NE WINDS WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDINESS AT THE TAF
SITES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY AT RIC AND SBY AND DURING MOST OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT PHF...ORF AND ECG. OVERNIGHT COOLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES SAT MORNING
AT THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT
AND SUN BUT WITH SOME CIGS CONTINUING IN SE PORTIONS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FURTHER MON AND TUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING...OUTSIDE
THE POSSIBILITY OF INLAND EARLY MORNING FOG. STRONGER WINDS AND
DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AROUND WED OR THU
AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AGAIN TOWARD LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTN AND SEE NO REASON FOR A SIG
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO
SHIFT TO THE NE LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WHICH IS A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUS FCSTS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE OFFSHORE PORTION OF THE SCA
A BIT FURTHER INTO SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVSRY
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SEAS ARE STILL 9-10FT AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ON SAT (LOOKING AT
GUIDANCE). ALTHOUGH CURRENT SCA ONLY RUNS THROUGH SUN EVNG...GIVEN
PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF SCA
ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ084-086-
091-094-095-098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ632-633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...JYM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JYM/LSA
[top]
000
FXUS61 KLWX 200100
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH AN UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ACARS
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-80KT JET OVER TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF STATES. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1034MB
ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PASSED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
PENSACOLA...THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WAS
PRESSING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT DOWN THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD TAKE MAJORITY OF MARINE STRATUS ON A TRAJECTORY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AS RIDGE OVERHEAD BEGINS
TO DECAY. PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW MILE ACROSS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED WESTERN VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
MARYLAND AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TAKE PLACE.
BUMPED UP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIRMASS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A CHILLY START TO THE DAY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN WEDGED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
STRATOCU DECK TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP P/SUNNY WORDING IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWV TROFS OVER ERN AND WRN CANADA TO PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THIS
WKEND. SHRTWV TROF MOVG THRU NEW ENGLAND SUN EVE WILL DRIVE A
CDFNT SWD ACRS MID ATLC LATE SUN NGT. ATTM...LACK OF DYNAMICS AND
LOW LVL MSTR PRECLUDE MENTIONABLE POPS.
UPR RDG BUILDS EWD MON THRU WED WHILE MEAN TROF ATTEMPTS TO SHED
LOPRES TWD THE SERN CONUS. DRY FCST CONTS THRU THU EVE.
FRI THRU SAT STILL REMAIN UNCLR. ECMWF AND SVRL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DVLP STG SFC SYSTEM OVR WRN ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHED
LOPRES. HAVE CONTD SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS SERN ZONES FRI SPREADING
NW FRI EVE AS PSBL SFC LOW MOVES TWD FCST AREA ALONG COAST.
CONCERNING TEMPS...MINIMA MID 40S TO MID 50S MUCH OF FCST PDS AS
HIPRES AND LGT WINDS ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OVNGT. MAXIMA GENLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PDS AS WELL...NR OR SLGTLY BLW NRML.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILD
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC TO SPREAD INLAND FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY IMPACTING CHO
AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS UP NORTH MAY ALLOW IFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN
SPOTTY AREAS NEAR KMRB. EXPECT TEMPORARY VFR CEILINGS AT THE METRO
HUBS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE
MORNING PUSH. CEILINGS LIFT AND SCATTER WITH HEATING AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PRESIDING.
LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER CU FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRATUS MAY DVLP AGAIN BEHIND CDFNT LATE SUN NGT INTO MON AND
AGAIN MON NGT INTO TUE AS ELY UPSLP FLOW ENSUES.
&&
.MARINE...
EVENING WIND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MARIGNAL SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS MID BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE ANY
DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEGLIABLE ENOUGH TO NOT BE
ABLE TO DISMISS LIKELINESS OF SMALL CRART ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
NLY TO NELY WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADZY THRESHOLD MAY DVLP
MON IN WAKE OF SUN NGT CDFNT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WAS ABLE TO
CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MID
BAY DUE TO TIMING OF HIGH TIDE. HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR
DC/ALEXANDRIA AS WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES HAVE RISEN TO +1 TO 1.5 FT
THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH LOW TIDE...ANTICIPATE ISSUES AT HIGH
TIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT. THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ALONG THE BAY.
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ007-011-
014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ532-533-
537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROGOWSKI
NEAR TERM...ROGOWSKI
SHORT TERM...LASORSA
LONG TERM...KRAMAR
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI/KRAMAR
MARINE...ROGOWSKI/KRAMAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROGOWSKI/LASORSA
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200026
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
826 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND ADJUST
SKY GRIDS...NO OTHER CHANGES. EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAKENING SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE BEGINS TO RETREAT FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE LOW STAYS TO
THE WEST UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE DISTRICT SUNDAY BRINGING SOME
MIDDLE CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RISK OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200016
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MAINE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF OF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THE FURTHER INLAND YOU GO. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (IMMEDIATE COAST). LOOK FOR
LINGERING CU FIELD INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. NE FLOW CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE RGN FROM THE
ATLANTIC OVRNT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER (ESP COASTAL
ZONES). LOOK FOR MINS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW TO MID
60S ALONG THE SE COAST. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG LATE OVER
FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS MET/MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. LEFT OUT OF FCST DUE TO SHRT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE DAY OVER THE ERN
THIRD. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING INLAND AND
SHOULD BREAK UP SOME AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MOISTURE HOLDS ALONG
THE COAST (ESP SE CWA) LEADING TO CLDY TO MO/CLDY WRDG FOR THE
DAY. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN RATHER STAGNANT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S
EAST OF I-95 WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND (LESS CLOUDS).
LEANING TWRDS NAM SOLN WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE APPROACH TO CHCS OF
PRECIP. WILL HOLD POPS TO THE IMMEDIATE SE COAST (BUT RATHER LOW
CHCS) SAT AFTN IN SAT NIGHT. LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW TO
LWR/MID 60S SE.
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL..UPR 70S/
LWR 80S...WITH PTLY TO MO SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WITH UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND MVG OVERHEAD BY
WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IN THE EXTENDED IS WHAT TO DO WITH
A WEAK LOW OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING IT JUST OFF
THE GA/FL COAST FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WEEK WHILE THE EURO MVS IT
NORTH TOWARDS THE NC COAST FRI NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RA IN OUR EXTREME SE ZONES FOR SOME OF THE
WEEK...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRI MORNING IN LINE WITH THE EURO AND
HPC GUIDANCE.
REGARDLESS OF HOW FAST (OR IF) THE LOW MVS TOWARDS THE AREA...A
CONSISTENT E/NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS PRETTY SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK...MID TO UPR 70S FOR HIGHS AND 55-60 DEGREES FOR LOWS WHICH
IS RIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA AREA AND LOW
PRSSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NE FLOW ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK. THE WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH SAT...MAINLY
AT ORF AND ECG. THE NE WINDS WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDINESS AT THE TAF
SITES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY AT RIC AND SBY AND DURING MOST OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT PHF...ORF AND ECG. OVERNIGHT COOLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES SAT MORNING
AT THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT
AND SUN BUT WITH SOME CIGS CONTINUING IN SE PORTIONS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FURTHER MON AND TUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING...OUTSIDE
THE POSSIBILITY OF INLAND EARLY MORNING FOG. STRONGER WINDS AND
DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AROUND WED OR THU
AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AGAIN TOWARD LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTN AND SEE NO REASON FOR A SIG
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO
SHIFT TO THE NE LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WHICH IS A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUS FCSTS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE OFFSHORE PORTION OF THE SCA
A BIT FURTHER INTO SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVSRY
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SEAS ARE STILL 9-10FT AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ON SAT (LOOKING AT
GUIDANCE). ALTHOUGH CURRENT SCA ONLY RUNS THROUGH SUN EVNG...GIVEN
PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF SCA
ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GUID CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TIDES ARND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NRML TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW FOR ALL CSTL LOCATIONS FROM OCEAN CITY SOUTHWARD TO
HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDES SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
THAT MUCH OF A PROBLEM...BUT TOMORROW AFTN SHOULD SEE LVLS AROUND
OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE WHAT OCCURRED TODAY WHICH WOULD BE IN THE
MINOR FLOODING CATEGORY. HIGHEST LVLS LOOK TO BE AROUND THE
HAMPTON ROADS AREA WITH LVLS CLOSER TO 1.5FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ084-086-
091-094-095-098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...JYM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JYM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192029
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
429 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MAINE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF OF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THE FURTHER INLAND YOU GO. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (IMMEDIATE COAST). LOOK FOR
LINGERING CU FIELD INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. NE FLOW CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE RGN FROM THE
ATLANTIC OVRNT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER (ESP COASTAL
ZONES). LOOK FOR MINS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW TO MID
60S ALONG THE SE COAST. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG LATE OVER
FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS MET/MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. LEFT OUT OF FCST DUE TO SHRT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE DAY OVER THE ERN
THIRD. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING INLAND AND
SHOULD BREAK UP SOME AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MOISTURE HOLDS ALONG
THE COAST (ESP SE CWA) LEADING TO CLDY TO MO/CLDY WRDG FOR THE
DAY. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN RATHER STAGNANT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S
EAST OF I-95 WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND (LESS CLOUDS).
LEANING TWRDS NAM SOLN WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE APPROACH TO CHCS OF
PRECIP. WILL HOLD POPS TO THE IMMEDIATE SE COAST (BUT RATHER LOW
CHCS) SAT AFTN IN SAT NIGHT. LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW TO
LWR/MID 60S SE.
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL..UPR 70S/
LWR 80S...WITH PTLY TO MO SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WITH UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND MVG OVERHEAD BY
WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IN THE EXTENDED IS WHAT TO DO WITH
A WEAK LOW OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING IT JUST OFF
THE GA/FL COAST FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WEEK WHILE THE EURO MVS IT
NORTH TOWARDS THE NC COAST FRI NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RA IN OUR EXTREME SE ZONES FOR SOME OF THE
WEEK...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRI MORNING IN LINE WITH THE EURO AND
HPC GUIDANCE.
REGARDLESS OF HOW FAST (OR IF) THE LOW MVS TOWARDS THE AREA...A
CONSISTENT E/NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS PRETTY SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK...MID TO UPR 70S FOR HIGHS AND 55-60 DEGREES FOR LOWS WHICH
IS RIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HI PRES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. NE WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30K ALONG THE COAST. LOTS OF STRATOCU CIGS 030-060
FT ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNSET
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY FORM. MUCH THE
SAME WEATHER ON SAT AS STRATOCU CIGS FORM THRU THE DAY AND DIMINISH
AT NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN NE 15-25 KT. MODELS HINT AT LOW PRES MOVG UP
THE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. LOW MOVES OUT LATE SUN BUT STRONG HI TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
NE WINDS OVER THE REGION THRU NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTN AND SEE NO REASON FOR A SIG
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO
SHIFT TO THE NE LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WHICH IS A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUS FCSTS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE OFFSHORE PORTION OF THE SCA
A BIT FURTHER INTO SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVSRY
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SEAS ARE STILL 9-10FT AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ON SAT (LOOKING AT
GUIDANCE). ALTHOUGH CURRENT SCA ONLY RUNS THROUGH SUN EVNG...GIVEN
PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF SCA
ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GUID CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TIDES ARND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NRML TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW FOR ALL CSTL LOCATIONS FROM OCEAN CITY SOUTHWARD TO
HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDES SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
THAT MUCH OF A PROBLEM...BUT TOMORROW AFTN SHOULD SEE LVLS AROUND
OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE WHAT OCCURRED TODAY WHICH WOULD BE IN THE
MINOR FLOODING CATEGORY. HIGHEST LVLS LOOK TO BE AROUND THE
HAMPTON ROADS AREA WITH LVLS CLOSER TO 1.5FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ084-086-091-094-095-098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...JYM
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JYM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JYM
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191935
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
335 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MAINE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT..AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF OF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THE FURTHER INLAND YOU GO. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (IMMEDIATE COAST). LOOK FOR
LINGERING CU FIELD INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. NE FLOW CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE RGN FROM THE
ATLANTIC OVRNT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER (ESP COASTAL
ZONES). LOOK FOR MINS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW TO MID
60S ALONG THE SE COAST. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG LATE OVER
FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS MET/MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. LEFT OUT OF FCST DUE TO SHRT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE DAY OVER THE ERN
THIRD. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING INLAND AND
SHOULD BREAK UP SOME AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MOISTURE HOLDS ALONG
THE COAST (ESP SE CWA) LEADING TO CLDY TO MO/CLDY WRDG FOR THE
DAY. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN RATHER STAGNANT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S
EAST OF I-95 WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND (LESS CLOUDS).
LEANING TWRDS NAM SOLN WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE APPROACH TO CHCS OF
PRECIP. WILL HOLD POPS TO THE IMMEDIATE SE COAST (BUT RATHER LOW
CHCS) SAT AFTN IN SAT NIGHT. LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW TO
LWR/MID 60S SE.
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL..UPR 70S/
LWR 80S...WITH PTLY TO MO SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WITH UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND MVG OVERHEAD BY
WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IN THE EXTENDED IS WHAT TO DO WITH
A WEAK LOW OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING IT JUST OFF
THE GA/FL COAST FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WEEK WHILE THE EURO MVS IT
NORTH TOWARDS THE NC COAST FRI NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RA IN OUR EXTREME SE ZONES FOR SOME OF THE
WEEK...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRI MORNING IN LINE WITH THE EURO AND
HPC GUIDANCE.
REGARDLESS OF HOW FAST (OR IF) THE LOW MVS TOWARDS THE AREA...A
CONSISTENT E/NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS PRETTY SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK...MID TO UPR 70S FOR HIGHS AND 55-60 DEGREES FOR LOWS WHICH
IS RIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HI PRES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. NE WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30K ALONG THE COAST. LOTS OF STRATOCU CIGS 030-060
FT ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNSET
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY FORM. MUCH THE
SAME WEATHER ON SAT AS STRATOCU CIGS FORM THRU THE DAY AND DIMINISH
AT NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN NE 15-25 KT. MODELS HINT AT LOW PRES MOVG UP
THE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. LOW MOVES OUT LATE SUN BUT STRONG HI TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
NE WINDS OVER THE REGION THRU NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
PREV DISCUSSION...
HV DECIDED TO REMAIN WITH STRONG SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE. STRNGEST
WNDS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL WILL
COME CLOSE TO GALE OVR OUR EXTREME SRN WATERS. THE INCRS IN PRS
GRDNT BTWN LOW PRS TO THE S AND HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL INCRS SEAS.
BOTH WAVE WATCH AND SWAN MODELS PROG 8 FT SEAS ALONG THE COAST
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED HIGH SURF ADVSY
NORTHWARD TO VA/MD EASTERN SHORE BASED WINDS AND WAVE GUIDANCE.
WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DMNSH N-S ON SAT AS GRDNT RELAXES.
WILL XTND SCA THRU SAT EARLY AFTN ALL CSTL AREAS...HOWEVER XTREME
SRN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND AND COASTAL WATERS WILL HANG ONTO THE
SCA A LITTE LONGER AS WNDS/SEAS & WAVES MAY REMAIN AT SCA LVLS
THRU AT LEAST EARLY SUN AFTN.
GIVEN PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF
SCA ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PREV DISCUSSION...
HV EXPANDED COASTAL FLOOD AVDSY TO INCLUDE HAMPTON...POQUOSON...
GLOUSTER...MATHEWS AND YORK COUNTIES ALONG THE WRN SIDE OF SRN
CHES BAY BASED ON FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY
THIS AFTN.
LTST GUID SUGGESTS TIDES ARND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NRML TODAY FOR ALL
CSTL LOCATIONS FROM OCEAN CITY SOUTHWARD TO HAMPTON ROADS AND NE
NC. PREDICTED HIGH TIDES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MINOR
FLOODING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ084-086-091-094-095-098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...JYM
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 191918
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
318 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS
AROUND THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT CU FIELD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING...MAINLY FROM THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST.
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN WEDGED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
STRATOCU DECK TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP P/SUNNY WORDING IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWV TROFS OVER ERN AND WRN CANADA TO PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THIS
WKEND. SHRTWV TROF MOVG THRU NEW ENGLAND SUN EVE WILL DRIVE A
CDFNT SWD ACRS MID ATLC LATE SUN NGT. ATTM...LACK OF DYNAMICS AND
LOW LVL MSTR PRECLUDE MENTIONABLE POPS.
UPR RDG BUILDS EWD MON THRU WED WHILE MEAN TROF ATTEMPTS TO SHED
LOPRES TWD THE SERN CONUS. DRY FCST CONTS THRU THU EVE.
FRI THRU SAT STILL REMAIN UNCLR. ECMWF AND SVRL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DVLP STG SFC SYSTEM OVR WRN ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHED
LOPRES. HAVE CONTD SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS SERN ZONES FRI SPREADING
NW FRI EVE AS PSBL SFC LOW MOVES TWD FCST AREA ALONG COAST.
CONCERNING TEMPS...MINIMA MID 40S TO MID 50S MUCH OF FCST PDS AS
HIPRES AND LGT WINDS ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OVNGT. MAXIMA GENLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PDS AS WELL...NR OR SLGTLY BLW NRML.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. CU FIELD SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER CU FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRATUS MAY DVLP AGAIN BEHIND CDFNT LATE SUN NGT INTO MON AND
AGAIN MON NGT INTO TUE AS ELY UPSLP FLOW ENSUES.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN SOME. WILL CONTINUE
WITH AN SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE
LOWER POTOMAC SOUTH COBB ISLAND TO MIDNIGHT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
NLY TO NELY WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADZY THRESHOLD MAY DVLP
MON IN WAKE OF SUN NGT CDFNT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. WITH EASTNORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY.
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
BUT THE EASTNORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ007-
011-014-017-018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ532-533-
537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534.
&&
$$
LASORSA/KRAMAR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 191902
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
302 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM EAST OFF
FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA ALLOWED
SOME STRATOCU TO MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN TODAY AS WELL AS LETTING
CU/STRATOCU FORM IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. COOL AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM TO THE EAST AS WELL
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WAS ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO CONTINUING DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE. FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS, THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED ONSHORE FETCH. WITH THIS
FETCH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE OFFSHORE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT, WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLOUDS
COMING IN FROM THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING IN PLACE INTO
SAT MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WELL.
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER, I WENT WITH MAV TEMPS, BUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEM SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT SLOWLY WEAK AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THE CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN SAT MORNING
SHOULD BREAK BY AFTN, BUT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SOME
REFORMATION OF THE CLOUDS. ON SUNDAY, STATOCU SHOULD ALSO FORM IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SUNDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY THIS FRONT LOOKED
MOISTURE STARVED. HOWEVER, THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO FORM JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE DUE TO CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO
MAINLY NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A NEW AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MORE COOL AIR.
MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK OK FOR THE MINS, BUT FOR THE MAX TEMPS,
THEY LOOK TOO HIGH, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT TRACK RECORD
OF BEING TOO HIGH ON THE MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY,
BUT STILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION. WITHOUT ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT, THIS
SHOULD MEAN MORE DRY WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PC SKIES SOUTH, BUT CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, IT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH INTO THURSDAY. THEN THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETREAT ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO ALLOW A NORTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA AND
THEN HEADS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA WITH A THREAT OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL TRY TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOSING UP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE
FEATURES WAS LOADING UP THE LOW LEVEL (ABOVE-SURFACE) MOISTURE, AND
THIS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE GENEROUS STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMED THIS
MORNING. THE PRESENT MID-AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER SHOULD TEND TO BREAK
UP A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AS THE
CLOUDS HAD THAT DISTINCTIVE DIURNAL APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BUT, MORE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COULD COME BACK AT EVEN
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
EVEN AFFECT PLACES AS FAR WEST AS KRDG AND KABE. MOS GUIDANCE WAS
NOT UNANIMOUS, WITH THE GFS MOS THE MOST EXAGGERATED AT SHOWING
THIS, BUT THE ETA MOS ACTUALLY HINTED AT THIS TOWARD AND AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY AS WELL. THE NAM BUFKIT DATA ACTUALLY DID SHOW THIS BETTER,
EVEN INDICATING PRETTY LOW MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT.
SO, THE RESULT WAS THAT BROKEN MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE BROUGHT
INTO THE TAF SITES TOWARD 04Z, WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER OVERCAST
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. FOR KACY
AND KMIV, THE BASES WILL BE CARRIED EVEN LOWER, AROUND 1 THOUSAND
FEET. ALSO, A MENTION OF FOG WILL BE USED FOR KACY AND KMIV
DEPENDING ON WHAT ACTUALLY COMES OFF THE OCEAN. WITH SOME RADIATION
OCCURRING INLAND TONIGHT, A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG WAS ALSO USED FOR
KRDG AND KABE WHERE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF TO 3 KNOTS OR LESS.
THEN, CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO LIFT AND SEPARATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
TAKES ITS EFFECT BY LATE MORNING. BUT, AMOUNTS WERE STILL KEPT IN
THE BROKEN RANGE THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW FOR SIMPLICITY`S SAKE (EXCEPT
FOR KABE AND KRDG, WHERE SCATTERED WAS USED).
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEAST AND LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT AS
PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATION OCCURS, THEN VEER BACK TO EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOUPLES SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BETTER
INFLUENCE OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A LIGHTER
ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLY LESS CLOUDINESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, BUT IF THERE ARE ANY MORE PERIODS OF PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW,
THIS COULD YIELD MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND THE
LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF TONIGHT, BUT
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON DELAWARE BAY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY
REACHING 25 KNOTS, AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON THE
OCEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND, IT WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE 25 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. WAVEWATCH HAS THE WORST
OF THE SEAS TONIGHT, BUMPING THEM UP TO 10 FEET AT BUOY 44009 (WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT 9 FEET), THEN GRADUALLY DROPS THEM OFF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT CONTINUES THE 5 AND 6 FOOT
SEAS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING THEM A LITTLE BIT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS EXTENSION IN TIME WILL MATCH OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBOR.
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. THEN, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT
TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT
SITUATION.
RIP CURRENT...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RESULTED IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY, AND THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH RISK REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 8:00 PM. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER US A BIT SATURDAY, BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE RISK WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE, AND
POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HIGH SATURDAY ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE. BEING THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED
WITH LIFE GUARDS, IT MIGHT BE BEST TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER SATURDAY
AS WELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BUT
SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS MEANS THAT THE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE A BIT
LESS THAN TODAY WHEN WE HAD SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. HOWEVER,
SINCE DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SATURDAY AND ALSO THE
ASTRONIMCAL TIDES ARE A BIT LOW, IT LOOKS VERY QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER MINOR FLOODING WILL AGAIN OCCUR SATURDAY SO THE MINOR
FLOODING HEADLINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
TIDES...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191814
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
214 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
PRIMARILY BE CLEAR...WITH DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAKENING SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE BEGINS TO RETREAT FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE LOW STAYS TO
THE WEST UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...
GENERALY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE DISTRICT SUNDAY BRINGING SOME
MIDDLE CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RISK OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 191730
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY WILL CONTRAST WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, WHEN THE HIGH
WILL BUILD MORE DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. THEN,
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY TO THE AREA. MORE CLOUDINESS FORMED OVER THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING, AND WAS FORMING WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SO, CLOUD COVER
WILL BE BUMPED UP A BIT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA, AND THE WORDING WILL BE ADJUSTED TO MOSTLY SUNNY FAR WEST,
AND TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CENTRAL AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST, AND SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE BY ONE TO A FEW DEGREES. MANY AREAS WILL RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH SOME SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS REACHING THE LOWER
70S. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE A E TO
NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BUT WITH DEW POINTS, IN THE 50S, ANOTHER A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS THE AMS IS
QUITE DRY, AS REFLECTED BY THE LOW DEW POINTS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRI...WITH
AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A DECREASING WIND
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE POCONOS WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...COULD
GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
HIGH WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, AND SERVE AS AN
INTRODUCTION TO AUTUMN. HOWEVER, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH, NO PRECIP IS FCST. WITH PERSISTENT NE TO E FLOW OVER
THE AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AN UPPER LOW IS
FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OFF
THE SERN COAST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLN WITH THESE FEATURES AND THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN ON THE
DAY 6 FCST AT THIS POINT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SRN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME
PRECIP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP,
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH TO THE N AND THE LOW TO THE
S. OVERALL MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE, AND JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL TRY TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOSING UP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE
FEATURES WAS LOADING UP THE LOW LEVEL (ABOVE-SURFACE) MOISTURE, AND
THIS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE GENEROUS STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMED THIS
MORNING. THE PRESENT EARLY-TO-MID-AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER SHOULD TEND
TO BREAK UP A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, BUT COULD
COME BACK AT EVEN LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN AFFECT PLACES AS FAR WEST AS KRDG AND KABE.
MOS GUIDANCE WAS NOT UNANIMOUS, WITH THE GFS MOS THE MOST
EXAGGERATED AT SHOWING THIS, BUT THE ETA MOS ACTUALLY HINTED AT THIS
TOWARD AND AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL. THE NAM BUFKIT DATA ACTUALLY
DID SHOW THIS BETTER, EVEN INDICATING PRETTY LOW MARGINAL VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.
SO, THE RESULT WAS THAT BROKEN MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE BROUGHT
INTO THE TAF SITES TOWARD 04Z, WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER OVERCAST
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. FOR KACY
AND KMIV, THE BASES WILL BE CARRIED EVEN LOWER, AROUND 1 THOUSAND
FEET. ALSO, A MENTION OF FOG WILL BE USED FOR KACY AND KMIV
DEPENDING ON WHAT ACTUALLY COMES OFF THE OCEAN. WITH SOME RADIATION
OCCURRING INLAND TONIGHT, A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG WAS ALSO USED FOR
KRDG AND KABE WHERE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF TO 3 KNOTS OR LESS.
THEN, CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO LIFT AND SEPARATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
TAKES ITS EFFECT BY LATE MORNING. BUT, AMOUNTS WERE STILL KEPT IN
THE BROKEN RANGE THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW FOR SIMPLICITY`S SAKE (EXCEPT
FOR KABE AND KRDG, WHERE SCATTERED WAS USED).
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEAST AND LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT AS
PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATION OCCURS, THEN VEER BACK TO EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOUPLES SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BETTER
INFLUENCE OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A LIGHTER
ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLY LESS CLOUDINESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, BUT IF THERE ARE ANY MORE PERIODS OF PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW,
THIS COULD YIELD MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION INTO SATURDAY, MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS NORTH TO AROUND 30 KNOTS SOUTH ON THE
OCEAN, AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES ON DELAWARE BAY. WITH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY, WE WILL
DISCONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY AT 600 PM.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS BEING THAT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
FOR NOW, WE WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM ON SATURDAY IN
ORDER TO COVER THE FIRST THREE FORECAST PERIODS. IT WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.
THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT SITUATION.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
BEING THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED WITH LIFE GUARDS,
IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT EVERYONE STAY OUT OF THE SURF TODAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, THEN IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DURING LAST NIGHT, TIDAL DEPARTURES
WERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. AT MIDDAY,
THEY WERE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY. AS A RESULT, THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH
EXPIRATION UNTIL 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL RANGE
FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE THEY START TO DECREASE. THE
EXPECTED DEPARTURES SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS LOWER, ASTRONOMICALLY SPEAKING, THAN
THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDES. HOWEVER, THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY,
AND THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE DEALT WITH AFTER THE 12Z GUIDANCE
PACKAGE IS REVIEWED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../ NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM.../ NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../ IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191717
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH STRONG SFC HIGH KEEPING CONTROL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD SATURDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF
HIGH...WILL SEE A TAD BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LL. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME CU SAT AFTERNOON AND WARMER TEMPS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. LL MOISTURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LL ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. THERE IS A CHANCE AN ISO TRW COULD DEVELOP. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES FRONT WASHES OUT AND MOISTURE DISSIPATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS DRY PATTERN CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...
GENERALY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE DISTRICT SUNDAY BRINGING SOME
MIDDLE CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RISK OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 191607
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1207 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH...WHICH WILL AFFECT TODAYS WEATHER MORE
THAN TOMORROWS.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT
FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOOD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED. UPDATE TO KEEP IN P/SUNNY WORDING IN
FOR WASHINGTON METRO AREA AS WELL AS LOWER SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. STILL FEEL THAT CU FIELD WILL SUBSIDE SOME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THAT WEDGES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE MID-LEVELS IS ALSO ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
ALLOWED SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE IS A
BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE ARE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALREADY...MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
BRING DOWN DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. THEREFORE...CURRENT FEELING IS
THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.
TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. STILL A PLEASANTLY COOL AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CLD TROUBLES CONT TNGT. LWX WRFS /AND NAM12 FOR THAT MATTER/ KEEP
MSTR TRAPPED THRU THE NGT. AS RDG AXIS /AND ITS DRY AIR INTRUSION/
NEARS...CONFIDENCE WANES. ALTHO CUD VRY EASILY SEE IT BEING MOCLDY
AGN...HV OPTED TO BUMP CLD GRIDS UP TO A STRONG PTCLDY INSTEAD. AFTR
QUITE A FEW BREAKS /THX TO THAT DRY AIR/...ANTHR RND OF MARINE AIR
LIKELY TO BE ADVECTED INLAND...MOST LIKELY LATE AT NGT. WL LIMIT ITS
INLAND EXTENT ATTM...TIL THE 1ST 12 HRS OF FCST CAN BE EVALUATED.
WHATS NOT IN AS MUCH DOUBT ARE THE TEMPS. READINGS IN THE 30S NEAR
THE CNTR OF THE HIGH...AND STILL A FEW HRS TO GO BFR TEMPS BTTM OUT.
WL MODIFY THAT...BUT IT WL BE THE COOLEST NGT IN THIS STRING...W/
WIDESPREAD MIN-T IN THE 40S. WL KEEP IT IN THE 50S IN THE URBAN
CNTRS /DCA-DMH/ AS WELL AS ALONG THE BAY/PTMC. OF COURSE...MIN-T
ULTIMATELY WL BE TIED TO CLDCVR FCST...SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS SHUD BE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KCHO AND KMRB.
LOOKING AT THE PSBLTY OF ANTHR ROUND OF MARINE STRATUS TO BE
ADVECTED INLAND TNGT. ONCE AGN...OUTCOME UNCERTAIN...BUT MVFR CIGS
REMAIN A PSBLTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SANDY
POINT AND THE POTOMAC RIVER NORTH OF COBB ISLAND. PREVIUOS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT TO TRIGGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS...BUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THE GRADIENT WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. WILL KEEP
HEADLINES IN TACT FOR NOW...THINKING THAT WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SANDY POINT
AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC NORTH OF COBB ISLAND. SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT WHERE THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6AM SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW. MINOR OVERFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE ALONG
WITH EASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A MINOR INCREASE IN TIDAL DEPARTURES
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ532-533-
537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534.
&&
$$
LASORSA/HTS/SAR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 191605
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY WILL CONTRAST WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, WHEN THE HIGH
WILL BUILD MORE DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. THEN,
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY TO THE AREA. MORE CLOUDINESS FORMED OVER THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING, AND WAS FORMING WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SO, CLOUD COVER
WILL BE BUMPED UP A BIT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA, AND THE WORDING WILL BE ADJUSTED TO MOSTLY SUNNY FAR WEST,
AND TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CENTRAL AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST, AND SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE BY ONE TO A FEW DEGREES. MANY AREAS WILL RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH SOME SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS REACHING THE LOWER
70S. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE A E TO
NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BUT WITH DEW POINTS, IN THE 50S, ANOTHER A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS THE AMS IS
QUITE DRY, AS REFLECTED BY THE LOW DEW POINTS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRI...WITH
AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A DECREASING WIND
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE POCONOS WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...COULD
GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
HIGH WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, AND SERVE AS AN
INTRODUCTION TO AUTUMN. HOWEVER, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH, NO PRECIP IS FCST. WITH PERSISTENT NE TO E FLOW OVER
THE AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AN UPPER LOW IS
FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OFF
THE SERN COAST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLN WITH THESE FEATURES AND THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN ON THE
DAY 6 FCST AT THIS POINT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SRN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME
PRECIP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP,
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH TO THE N AND THE LOW TO THE
S. OVERALL MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE, AND JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION DURING THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN,
PERHAPS REACHING 12 OR 14 KNOTS THERE AT TIMES, WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
AT 16Z, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER, STRATOCUMULUS
WAS FORMING WESTWARD FROM THE OCEAN UNDER THE INVERSION AND
AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW, WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
CLOUDS OFF THE OCEAN FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. BUT, CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE, AND THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY AT THE TAF SITES OTHER THAN KRDG AND KABE.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION SATURDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEW WEEK. ALL IN ALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION INTO SATURDAY, MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS NORTH TO AROUND 30 KNOTS SOUTH ON THE
OCEAN, AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES ON DELAWARE BAY. WITH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY, WE WILL
DISCONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY AT 600 PM.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS BEING THAT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
FOR NOW, WE WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM ON SATURDAY IN
ORDER TO COVER THE FIRST THREE FORECAST PERIODS. IT WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.
THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT SITUATION.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
BEING THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED WITH LIFE GUARDS,
IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT EVERYONE STAY OUT OF THE SURF TODAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, THEN IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DURING LAST NIGHT, TIDAL DEPARTURES
WERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. AT MIDDAY,
THEY WERE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY. AS A RESULT, THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH
EXPIRATION UNTIL 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL RANGE
FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE THEY START TO DECREASE. THE
EXPECTED DEPARTURES SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS LOWER, ASTRONOMICALLY SPEAKING, THAN
THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDES. HOWEVER, THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY,
AND THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE DEALT WITH AFTER THE 12Z GUIDANCE
PACKAGE IS REVIEWED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../ NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM.../ NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION.../ IOVINO
MARINE.../ IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KLWX 191351
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH...WHICH WILL AFFECT TODAYS WEATHER MORE
THAN TOMORROWS.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT
FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THAT WEDGES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE MID-LEVELS IS ALSO ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALLOWED
SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE IS A BIT
MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALREADY...MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BRING DOWN
DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. THEREFORE...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD
ONTO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTEND WITH.
TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. STILL A PLEASANTLY COOL AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CLD TROUBLES CONT TNGT. LWX WRFS /AND NAM12 FOR THAT MATTER/ KEEP
MSTR TRAPPED THRU THE NGT. AS RDG AXIS /AND ITS DRY AIR INTRUSION/
NEARS...CONFIDENCE WANES. ALTHO CUD VRY EASILY SEE IT BEING MOCLDY
AGN...HV OPTED TO BUMP CLD GRIDS UP TO A STRONG PTCLDY INSTEAD. AFTR
QUITE A FEW BREAKS /THX TO THAT DRY AIR/...ANTHR RND OF MARINE AIR
LIKELY TO BE ADVECTED INLAND...MOST LIKELY LATE AT NGT. WL LIMIT ITS
INLAND EXTENT ATTM...TIL THE 1ST 12 HRS OF FCST CAN BE EVALUATED.
WHATS NOT IN AS MUCH DOUBT ARE THE TEMPS. READINGS IN THE 30S NEAR
THE CNTR OF THE HIGH...AND STILL A FEW HRS TO GO BFR TEMPS BTTM OUT.
WL MODIFY THAT...BUT IT WL BE THE COOLEST NGT IN THIS STRING...W/
WIDESPREAD MIN-T IN THE 40S. WL KEEP IT IN THE 50S IN THE URBAN
CNTRS /DCA-DMH/ AS WELL AS ALONG THE BAY/PTMC. OF COURSE...MIN-T
ULTIMATELY WL BE TIED TO CLDCVR FCST...SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS SHUD BE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KCHO AND KMRB.
LOOKING AT THE PSBLTY OF ANTHR ROUND OF MARINE STRATUS TO BE
ADVECTED INLAND TNGT. ONCE AGN...OUTCOME UNCERTAIN...BUT MVFR CIGS
REMAIN A PSBLTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT TO TRIGGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS...BUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THE GRADIENT WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. WILL KEEP
HEADLINES IN TACT FOR NOW...THINKING THAT WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SANDY POINT
AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC NORTH OF COBB ISLAND. SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT WHERE THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6AM SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW. MINOR OVERFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE ALONG
WITH EASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A MINOR INCREASE IN TIDAL DEPARTURES
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ532-533-
537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 191345
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
945 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH...WHICH WILL AFFECT TODAYS WEATHER MORE
THAN TOMORROWS.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT
FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THAT WEDGES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE MID-LEVELS IS ALSO ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALLOWED
SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE IS A BIT
MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALREADY...MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BRING DOWN
DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. THEREFORE...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD
ONTO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTEND WITH.
TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. STILL A PLEASANTLY COOL AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CLD TROUBLES CONT TNGT. LWX WRFS /AND NAM12 FOR THAT MATTER/ KEEP
MSTR TRAPPED THRU THE NGT. AS RDG AXIS /AND ITS DRY AIR INTRUSION/
NEARS...CONFIDENCE WANES. ALTHO CUD VRY EASILY SEE IT BEING MOCLDY
AGN...HV OPTED TO BUMP CLD GRIDS UP TO A STRONG PTCLDY INSTEAD. AFTR
QUITE A FEW BREAKS /THX TO THAT DRY AIR/...ANTHR RND OF MARINE AIR
LIKELY TO BE ADVECTED INLAND...MOST LIKELY LATE AT NGT. WL LIMIT ITS
INLAND EXTENT ATTM...TIL THE 1ST 12 HRS OF FCST CAN BE EVALUATED.
WHATS NOT IN AS MUCH DOUBT ARE THE TEMPS. READINGS IN THE 30S NEAR
THE CNTR OF THE HIGH...AND STILL A FEW HRS TO GO BFR TEMPS BTTM OUT.
WL MODIFY THAT...BUT IT WL BE THE COOLEST NGT IN THIS STRING...W/
WIDESPREAD MIN-T IN THE 40S. WL KEEP IT IN THE 50S IN THE URBAN
CNTRS /DCA-DMH/ AS WELL AS ALONG THE BAY/PTMC. OF COURSE...MIN-T
ULTIMATELY WL BE TIED TO CLDCVR FCST...SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS SHUD BE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KCHO AND KMRB.
LOOKING AT THE PSBLTY OF ANTHR ROUND OF MARINE STRATUS TO BE
ADVECTED INLAND TNGT. ONCE AGN...OUTCOME UNCERTAIN...BUT MVFR CIGS
REMAIN A PSBLTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT TO TRIGGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS...BUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THE GRADIENT WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. WILL KEEP
HEADLINES IN TACT FOR NOW...THINKING THAT WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SANDY POINT
AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC NORTH OF COBB ISLAND. SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT WHERE THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6AM SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW. MINOR OVERFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE ALONG
WITH EASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A MINOR INCREASE IN TIDAL DEPARTURES
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ532-533-
537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534.
&&
$$
LASORSA/HTS/SAR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191054
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
654 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MAINE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT..AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032-1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MAINE...EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND BECOME
CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...WITH A CSTL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE
NC/SC COAST...AND EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. (GUSTS 20-25 MPH INLAND...AND 30-40 MPH ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST).
FOR TODAY...IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE FALL AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND +6C NORTH AND ABOUT +9C FAR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH ERLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS COOL AS YSDY AT THIS TIME (DUE TO MORE
MIXING AND CLOUDS)...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT MUCH OF A RISE DURING
THE DAY AS NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EFFECTS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW LVL MSTR
TRAPPED IN 800-900 MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES A BIT MORE
CLOUDY THAN YSDY. HAVE BUMPED SKY COVER UP A BIT TO GO PTLY SUNNY
TODAY ALL ZONES...AND THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MSTLY CLDY THIS
MRNG INTO THE ERLY AFTN (WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED). HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 70 DEGREES IN MD ZONES AND ONLY LWR TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT STILL NOT OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MIXING AND PARTIAL CLOUD CVR...COOLEST IN
PIEDMONT (AROUND 50) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...LWR/MID 60S SE
COASTAL ZONES.
ON SAT...GFS/NAM HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS...THE GFS
NOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH RESPECT TO MSTR MOVING WELL
INLAND AND SUGGESTING A CHC FOR -RA ALL THE WAY TO NEAR RICHMOND.
HAVE SIDED MORE WITH DRIER NAM SOLN SINCE IT HAS SUPPORT OF LATEST
00Z ECMWF AND UKMET...KEEPING MSTR MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT A DECENT
GRADIENT OF CLOUD CVR ON SAT...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY VA BCH TO NC
OUTER BANKS...WITH MORE SUNSHINE WELL INLAND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST A WARMER DAY...BUT WITH CONTD
NE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN ONLY BE IN LWR TO MID 70S...ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. KEEPING SCHC (20%) PRECIP FROM NORFOLK INTO
NE NC SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW
TO LWR/MID 60S SE.
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING THRU
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO ARND NORMAL..UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S...WITH PTLY TO MSUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO THE N KEEPS A RELATIVE DRY FCST THRU WED NITE
ALONG WITH A PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW. WEAK WAVE PROGGED ACROSS SERN
STATES MON NITE. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH LIFTG MSTR N WHILE ECMWF
KEEPS SGNFCNT MSTR JUST S OF FA. HAVE ADDED A SLGHT CHC OF R- TO
SERN ZONES MON NIGHT.
A STRNGR LOW PRS PROGGED TO DVLP OFF SERN COAST WED NITE THEN DRIFT
N ALONG MID ATLNTC COAST THU INTO FRI OF NXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL
ADD CHC RAIN THU AND THU NITE. THIS SYSTM WILL LIKELY HAVE A GREATER
MARINE IMPACT AS PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCRG PRS
GRDNT PROM HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL RESULT IN A XTNDD PRD OF SCA IF
NOT THE PTNTL FOR GALES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT PRES GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING
(AROUND 15Z...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF WILL WILL COMMENCE EARLIER.)
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS THRU THE WEEKEND. CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING OVER NE NC AND SE VA BY SUN AS WEAK LOW MOVES NORTH
FROM SE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
HV DECIDED TO REMAIN WITH STRONG SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE. STRNGEST
WNDS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL WILL
COME CLOSE TO GALE OVR OUR EXTREME SRN WATERS. THE INCRS IN PRS GRDNT
BTWN LOW PRS TO THE S AND HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL INCRS SEAS. BOTH
WAVE WATCH AND SWAN MODELS PROG 8 FT SEAS ALONG THE COAST LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED HIGH SURF ADVSY NORTHWARD TO VA/MD
EASTERN SHORE BASED WINDS AND WAVE GUIDANCE.
WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DMNSH N-S ON SAT AS GRDNT RELAXES.
WILL XTND SCA THRU SAT EARLY AFTN ALL CSTL AREAS...HOWEVER XTREME
SRN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND AND COASTAL WATERS WILL HANG ONTO THE
SCA A LITTE LONGER AS WNDS/SEAS & WAVES MAY REMAIN AT SCA LVLS
THRU AT LEAST EARLY SUN AFTN.
GIVEN PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF
SCA ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HV EXPANDED COASTAL FLOOD AVDSY TO INCLUDE
HAMPTON/POQUOSON/GLOUSTER/MATHEWS AND YORK COUNTIES ALONG THE WRN
SIDE OF SRN CHES BAY BASED ON FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR HIGH TIDE
CYCLE EARLY THIS AFTN.
LTST GUID SUGGESTS TIDES ARND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NRML TODAY FOR ALL
CSTL LOCATIONS FROM OCEAN CITY SOUTHWARD TO HAMPTON ROADS AND NE
NC. PREDICTED HIGH TIDES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MINOR
FLOODING...AND CSTL FLOOD ADSY/HIGH SURF ADSY WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ084-086-091-094-095-098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...SMF
MARINE...SMF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 191027
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...YET
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY TO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S IN
MANY AREAS WITH, WITH SOME SRN AREAS REACHING THE LOW 70S. DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S. SOME SC HAS DEVELOPED,
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN SRN AREAS ON THE PERSISTENT NELY
FLOW. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDS.
WITH THE AMS QUITE DRY, EXPECT THESE CLOUDS NOT TO PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING. LITTLE, IF ANY CLOUD COVER IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE A E TO
NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BUT WITH DEW POINTS, IN THE 50S, ANOTHER A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS THE AMS IS
QUITE DRY, AS REFLECTED BY THE LOW DEW POINTS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRI...WITH
AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A DECREASING WIND
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE POCONOS WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...COULD
GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
HIGH WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, AND SERVE AS AN
INTRODUCTION TO AUTUMN. HOWEVER, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH, NO PRECIP IS FCST. WITH PERSISTENT NE TO E FLOW OVER
THE AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AN UPPER LOW IS
FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OFF
THE SERN COAST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLN WITH THESE FEATURES AND THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN ON THE
DAY 6 FCST AT THIS POINT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SRN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME
PRECIP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP,
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH TO THE N AND THE LOW TO THE
S. OVERALL MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE, AND JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION DURING THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 0600Z ON
SATURDAY.
THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN AN NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN,
PERHAPS REACHING 12 OR 14 KNOTS THERE AT TIMES WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
AT 1000Z, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE AND KRDG. SOME STRATOCUMULUS WAS DRIFTING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND
AFFECTING PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, WE
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS OFF THE OCEAN FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THEIR BASES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
VFR RANGE, AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT KACY, KMIV, KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND PERHAPS KTTN.
THE VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON SATURDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEW WEEK. ALL IN ALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO SATURDAY, MAINTAINING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT FOR TODAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY
RELAXING FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS TO PERHAPS 30 KNOTS IN PLACES. WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY, WE WILL DISCONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY AT 600 PM. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS BEING THAT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW, WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM ON SATURDAY IN ORDER TO COVER THE FIRST THREE
FORECAST PERIODS. IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.
THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT SITUATION.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. BEING
THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED WITH LIFE GUARDS, IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT EVERYONE STAY OUT OF THE SURF TODAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, THEN IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DURING THE NIGHT, TIDAL DEPARTURES
WERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE
DEPARTURES MAY INCREASE TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BY THE TIME
OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 AM
UNTIL 200 PM.
TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ONE TO ONE AND A HALF FOOT
RANGE FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE THEY START TO DECREASE.
THE EXPECTED DEPARTURES SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS LOWER, ASTRONOMICALLY SPEAKING, THAN
THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDES. HOWEVER, THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL DEAL WITH THAT POTENTIAL AFTER WE SEE WHAT
TRANSPIRES TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190827
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
427 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MAINE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT..AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032-1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MAINE...EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND BECOME
CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...WITH A CSTL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE
NC/SC COAST...AND EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. (GUSTS 20-25 MPH INLAND...AND 30-40 MPH ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST).
FOR TODAY...IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE FALL AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND +6C NORTH AND ABOUT +9C FAR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH ERLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS COOL AS YSDY AT THIS TIME (DUE TO MORE
MIXING AND CLOUDS)...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT MUCH OF A RISE DURING
THE DAY AS NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EFFECTS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW LVL MSTR
TRAPPED IN 800-900 MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES A BIT MORE
CLOUDY THAN YSDY. HAVE BUMPED SKY COVER UP A BIT TO GO PTLY SUNNY
TODAY ALL ZONES...AND THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MSTLY CLDY THIS
MRNG INTO THE ERLY AFTN (WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED). HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 70 DEGREES IN MD ZONES AND ONLY LWR TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT STILL NOT OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MIXING AND PARTIAL CLOUD CVR...COOLEST IN
PIEDMONT (AROUND 50) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...LWR/MID 60S SE
COASTAL ZONES.
ON SAT...GFS/NAM HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS...THE GFS
NOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH RESPECT TO MSTR MOVING WELL
INLAND AND SUGGESTING A CHC FOR -RA ALL THE WAY TO NEAR RICHMOND.
HAVE SIDED MORE WITH DRIER NAM SOLN SINCE IT HAS SUPPORT OF LATEST
00Z ECMWF AND UKMET...KEEPING MSTR MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT A DECENT
GRADIENT OF CLOUD CVR ON SAT...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY VA BCH TO NC
OUTER BANKS...WITH MORE SUNSHINE WELL INLAND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST A WARMER DAY...BUT WITH CONTD
NE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN ONLY BE IN LWR TO MID 70S...ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. KEEPING SCHC (20%) PRECIP FROM NORFOLK INTO
NE NC SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW
TO LWR/MID 60S SE.
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING THRU
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO ARND NORMAL..UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S...WITH PTLY TO MSUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO THE N KEEPS A RELATIVE DRY FCST THRU WED NITE
ALONG WITH A PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW. WEAK WAVE PROGGED ACROSS SERN
STATES MON NITE. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH LIFTG MSTR N WHILE ECMWF
KEEPS SGNFCNT MSTR JUST S OF FA. HAVE ADDED A SLGHT CHC OF R- TO
SERN ZONES MON NIGHT.
A STRNGR LOW PRS PROGGED TO DVLP OFF SERN COAST WED NITE THEN DRIFT
N ALONG MID ATLNTC COAST THU INTO FRI OF NXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL
ADD CHC RAIN THU AND THU NITE. THIS SYSTM WILL LIKELY HAVE A GREATER
MARINE IMPACT AS PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCRG PRS
GRDNT PROM HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL RESULT IN A XTNDD PRD OF SCA IF
NOT THE PTNTL FOR GALES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT PRES GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING
(AROUND 15Z...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF WILL WILL COMMENCE EARLIER.)
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS THRU THE WEEKEND. CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING OVER NE NC AND SE VA BY SUN AS WEAK LOW MOVES NORTH
FROM SE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
HV DECIDED TO REMAIN WITH STRONG SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE. STRNGEST
WNDS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL WILL
COME CLOSE TO GALE OVR OUR EXTREME SRN WATERS. THE INCRS IN PRS GRDNT
BTWN LOW PRS TO THE S AND HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL INCRS SEAS. BOTH
WAVE WATCH AND SWAN MODELS PROG 8 FT SEAS ALONG THE COAST LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED HIGH SURF ADVSY NORTHWARD TO VA/MD
EASTERN SHORE BASED WINDS AND WAVE GUIDANCE.
WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DMNSH N-S ON SAT AS GRDNT RELAXES.
WILL XTND SCA THRU SAT EARLY AFTN ALL CSTL AREAS...HOWEVER XTREME
SRN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND AND COASTAL WATERS WILL HANG ONTO THE
SCA A LITTE LONGER AS WNDS/SEAS & WAVES MAY REMAIN AT SCA LVLS
THRU AT LEAST EARLY SUN AFTN.
GIVEN PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF
SCA ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LTST GUID SUGGESTS TIDES ARND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NRML TODAY FOR ALL
CSTL LOCATIONS FROM OCEAN CITY SOUTHWARD TO HAMPTON ROADS AND NE
NC. PREDICTED HIGH TIDES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MINOR
FLOODING...AND CSTL FLOOD ADSY/HIGH SURF ADSY WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MDZ024-025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ095-098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...SMF
MARINE...SMF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SMF
000
FXUS61 KPHI 190801
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...YET
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY TO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S IN
MANY AREAS WITH, WITH SOME SRN AREAS REACHING THE LOW 70S. DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S. SOME SC HAS DEVELOPED,
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN SRN AREAS ON THE PERSISTENT NELY
FLOW. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDS.
WITH THE AMS QUITE DRY, EXPECT THESE CLOUDS NOT TO PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING. LITTLE, IF ANY CLOUD COVER IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE A E TO
NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BUT WITH DEW POINTS, IN THE 50S, ANOTHER A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS THE AMS IS
QUITE DRY, AS REFLECTED BY THE LOW DEW POINTS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRI...WITH
AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A DECREASING WIND
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE POCONOS WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...COULD
GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
HIGH WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, AND SERVE AS AN
INTRODUCTION TO AUTUMN. HOWEVER, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH, NO PRECIP IS FCST. WITH PERSISTENT NE TO E FLOW OVER
THE AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AN UPPER LOW IS
FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OFF THE
SERN COAST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLN
WITH THESE FEATURES AND THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN ON THE DAY
6 FCST AT THIS POINT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER THE SRN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP, THERE COULD
BE AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH TO THE N AND THE LOW TO THE S.
OVERALL MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE, AND JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION DURING THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 0600Z ON
SATURDAY.
THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN AN NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN,
PERHAPS REACHING 12 OR 14 KNOTS THERE AT TIMES WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
AT 0800Z, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE AND KRDG. SOME STRATOCUMULUS WAS DRIFTING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND
AFFECTING PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. WITH THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS OFF
THE OCEAN FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THEIR
BASES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE, AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG, AND PERHAPS KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN.
THE VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AT KRDG, WE MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT FOG OFF THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON SATURDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEW WEEK. ALL IN ALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO SATURDAY, MAINTAINING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT FOR TODAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY
RELAXING FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS TO PERHAPS 30 KNOTS IN PLACES. WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY, WE WILL DISCONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY AT 600 PM. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS BEING THAT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW, WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM ON SATURDAY IN ORDER TO COVER THE FIRST THREE
FORECAST PERIODS. IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.
THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT SITUATION.
RIP CURRENT...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE. BEING THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED
WITH LIFE GUARDS, IT MIGHT BE BEST TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER TODAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, THEN IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DURING THE NIGHT, TIDAL DEPARTURES
WERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE
DEPARTURES MAY INCREASE TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BY THE TIME
OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 AM
UNTIL 200 PM.
TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ONE TO ONE AND A HALF FOOT
RANGE FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE THEY START TO DECREASE.
THE EXPECTED DEPARTURES SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS LOWER, ASTRONOMICALLY SPEAKING, THAN
THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDES. HOWEVER, THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL DEAL WITH THAT POTENTIAL AFTER WE SEE WHAT
TRANSPIRES TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190800
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MAINE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT..AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032-1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MAINE...EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND BECOME
CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...WITH A CSTL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE
NC/SC COAST...AND EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. (GUSTS 20-25 MPH INLAND...AND 30-40 MPH ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST).
FOR TODAY...IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE FALL AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND +6C NORTH AND ABOUT +9C FAR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH ERLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS COOL AS YSDY AT THIS TIME (DUE TO MORE
MIXING AND CLOUDS)...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT MUCH OF A RISE DURING
THE DAY AS NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EFFECTS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW LVL MSTR
TRAPPED IN 800-900 MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES A BIT MORE
CLOUDY THAN YSDY. HAVE BUMPED SKY COVER UP A BIT TO GO PTLY SUNNY
TODAY ALL ZONES...AND THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MSTLY CLDY THIS
MRNG INTO THE ERLY AFTN (WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED). HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 70 DEGREES IN MD ZONES AND ONLY LWR TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT STILL NOT OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MIXING AND PARTIAL CLOUD CVR...COOLEST IN
PIEDMONT (AROUND 50) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...LWR/MID 60S SE
COASTAL ZONES.
ON SAT...GFS/NAM HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS...THE GFS
NOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH RESPECT TO MSTR MOVING WELL
INLAND AND SUGGESTING A CHC FOR -RA ALL THE WAY TO NEAR RICHMOND.
HAVE SIDED MORE WITH DRIER NAM SOLN SINCE IT HAS SUPPORT OF LATEST
00Z ECMWF AND UKMET...KEEPING MSTR MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT A DECENT
GRADIENT OF CLOUD CVR ON SAT...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY VA BCH TO NC
OUTER BANKS...WITH MORE SUNSHINE WELL INLAND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST A WARMER DAY...BUT WITH CONTD
NE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN ONLY BE IN LWR TO MID 70S...ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. KEEPING SCHC (20%) PRECIP FROM NORFOLK INTO
NE NC SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW
TO LWR/MID 60S SE.
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING THRU
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO ARND NORMAL..UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S...WITH PTLY TO MSUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO THE N KEEPS A RELATIVE DRY FCST THRU WED NITE
ALONG WITH A PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW. WEAK WAVE PROGGED ACROSS SERN
STATES MON NITE. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH LIFTG MSTR N WHILE ECMWF
KEEPS SGNFCNT MSTR JUST S OF FA. HAVE ADDED A SLGHT CHC OF R- TO
SERN ZONES MON NIGHT.
A STRNGR LOW PRS PROGGED TO DVLP OFF SERN COAST WED NITE THEN DRIFT
N ALONG MID ATLNTC COAST THU INTO FRI OF NXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL
ADD CHC RAIN THU AND THU NITE. THIS SYSTM WILL LIKELY HAVE A GREATER
MARINE IMPACT AS PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCRG PRS
GRDNT PROM HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL RESULT IN A XTNDD PRD OF SCA IF
NOT THE PTNTL FOR GALES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NE TO E WINDS HAVE VARIED IN DIRECTION BY 40 TO 50 DEGREES AT SOME
OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SPEED AND MORE CONSISTENCY IN WIND
DIRECTION BY FRI MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS AT
PHF AND ORF AND EXCEED IT AT TIMES AT ECG. THE WINDS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH A DROP IN H85 TEMP
SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS 2K TO 4K AGL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FRI. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SBY MAY COME CLOSE TO
SATURATION BUT CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT IFR THERE.
A LONG PERIOD OF NE TO E WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD FROM SAT NIGHT THRU WED. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THOSE OF FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY...
WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DMNSH N-S ON SAT AS GRDNT RELAXES. WILL
XTND SCA THRU 4TH PRD FOR ALL CSTL AREAS/XTREME SRN CHES BAY AND
CURRITUCK SND AS WNDS/SEAS & WAVES MAY REMAIN AT SCA LVLS THRU
MOST OF THE DAY.
GIVEN PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF
SCA ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LTST GUID SUGGESTS TIDES ARND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NRML TODAY FOR ALL
CSTL LOCATIONS FROM OCEAN CITY SOUTHWARD TO HAMPTON ROADS AND NE
NC. PREDICTED HIGH TIDES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MINOR
FLOODING...AND CSTL FLOOD ADSY/HIGH SURF ADSY WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MDZ024-025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ095-098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...SMF
MARINE...SMF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SMF
000
FXUS61 KLWX 190738
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH...WHICH WILL AFFECT TODAYS WEATHER MORE
THAN TOMORROWS.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT
FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ELY FLOW ACRS CWFA ATTM IN RESPONSE TO HIPRES ACRS NRN NEW ENGLND.
AS FEARED YDA...THAT LLVL FLOW HAS BROUGHT A MARINE AMS INLAND...
AND CLDS CAN BE SEEN ON 11-3.9U STLT FM CHO/W99-DCA-FDK/BWI
ADVECTING WWD. SYNOPTIC SCALE MEAN RH GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON THE
CLDS DUE TO THEIR SHALLOW NATURE. HWVR...TIME-HGTS DO NOTE THEIR
PRESENCE FM H10-8. LWX WRFS PICKING UP ON IT TOO...THO ITS CLD
DEPICTION APPEARS A TOUCH HVY HANDED. EITHER WAY...BY SUNRISE XPCT
MOCLDY SKIES ACRS ENTIRE AREA.
MSTR LIKELY TO BE TRAPPED UNDER INCRSG SUBSIDENCE INVSN...MAKING
DAYTIME FCST A LTL TOUGHER THAN FIRST GLANCE WUD INDICATE. ALTHO
WANING...SUN ANGLE STILL HIGH ENUF TO BE AN EFFECTIVE MIXER. AND
TKNS OF MSTR SCANT ENUF TO BE OVERCOME. SO...WL DECR CLDCVR TO ABT
40-60 PCT BY ELY AFTN. IN ADDITION...RIBBON OF LOW H8 RH WORKS
INLAND LT IN THE DAY FM DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO RDG AXIS. ALSO...
NWRN CWFA SHUD SEE WNDS SWING ARND TO THE SE...WHICH EFFECTIVELY WUD
CUT OFF MARINE INFLUENCE. THESE AREAS LIKELY TO SEE SKIES BCMG
MOSUN...OTRW BCMG PTSUN WL SUFFICE.
HV LWRD MAXT FM MOS MEAN DUE TO CLDS NOT REFLECTED BY MOS GDNC.
RESULTANT FCST A BIT COOLER THAN PRVS. THX TO IMPACT FM CLDS AND CAA
DRAINING DWN CST...THINK MANY SITES WL BE HARD PRESSED TO TOP 70 DEG
F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CLD TROUBLES CONT TNGT. LWX WRFS /AND NAM12 FOR THAT MATTER/ KEEP
MSTR TRAPPED THRU THE NGT. AS RDG AXIS /AND ITS DRY AIR INTRUSION/
NEARS...CONFIDENCE WANES. ALTHO CUD VRY EASILY SEE IT BEING MOCLDY
AGN...HV OPTED TO BUMP CLD GRIDS UP TO A STRONG PTCLDY INSTEAD. AFTR
QUITE A FEW BREAKS /THX TO THAT DRY AIR/...ANTHR RND OF MARINE AIR
LIKELY TO BE ADVECTED INLAND...MOST LIKELY LATE AT NGT. WL LIMIT ITS
INLAND EXTENT ATTM...TIL THE 1ST 12 HRS OF FCST CAN BE EVALUATED.
WHATS NOT IN AS MUCH DOUBT ARE THE TEMPS. READINGS IN THE 30S NEAR
THE CNTR OF THE HIGH...AND STILL A FEW HRS TO GO BFR TEMPS BTTM OUT.
WL MODIFY THAT...BUT IT WL BE THE COOLEST NGT IN THIS STRING...W/
WIDESPREAD MIN-T IN THE 40S. WL KEEP IT IN THE 50S IN THE URBAN
CNTRS /DCA-DMH/ AS WELL AS ALONG THE BAY/PTMC. OF COURSE...MIN-T
ULTIMATELY WL BE TIED TO CLDCVR FCST...SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS SHUD BE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK BEING ADVECTED WWD ATTM...MAKING CLD FCST CHALLENGING.
ALL CIGS VFR ATTM...BUT XPCT MVFR CIGS TO DVLP PRIOR TO SUN-UP. IN
ADDITION...20-30 KT ELY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK. HV AMD DCA/IAD FOR
LLWS. ALL SITES WL BE RE-EVALUATED...AND AMDS WIBIS AS REQD.
AFTN CLD FCST MAY NEED REVISIONS PENDING LTST GDNC. MSTR TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SHUD BE ABLE TO LIFT CIGS SOME AND
GET SOME MIXING DUE TO SUN ANGLE. UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH THAT WL IMPACT
FCST. ONE WAY OR ANTHR...SHUD BE VFR FLGT CONDS TAFTN...BUT IT MAY
BE CLOSE TO MVFR ATTMS.
LOOKING AT THE PSBLTY OF ANTHR ROUND OF MARINE STRATUS TO BE
ADVECTED INLAND TNGT. ONCE AGN...OUTCOME UNCERTAIN...BUT MVFR CIGS
REMAIN A PSBLTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
WNDS AT TPLM2 20 KT...BUT ELSW WNDS SEEM TO BE HVG DIFFICULTY MIXING
DWN TO WATERS SFC. JUST OFF THE DECK...20-30 KT LLJ COMING WWD...SO
WL HOLD LINE ON SCA. XPCT BETTER MIXING AFTR SUNRISE...AND WL KEEP
HEADLINE GOING EVERYWHERE THIS MRNG. BUT PRES GRAD WL DIMINISH AS
HIPRES BLDS FM NEW ENGLND. WL THUS HV STAGGERED END TIMES...TRIMMING
AT NOON FOR NRN BAY/UPR PTMC...AND XTNDG SCA THRU NGT FOR MID BAY
/DRUM PT-SMITH PT/.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALL TIDES ON TARGET ATTM...BUT CONTD ELY FLOW MAY LEAD TO POSITIVE
DEPARTURES BGNG TNGT. MINOR OVERFLOWS PSBL AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...
SPCLY ALONG WRN SHORE OF CHSPK BAY.
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE ALONG
WITH EASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A MINOR INCREASE IN TIDAL DEPARTURES
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ532-533-
537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...HTS/SAR
MARINE...HTS/SAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/SAR
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190543
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH STRONG SFC HIGH KEEPING CONTROL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD SATURDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF
HIGH...WILL SEE A TAD BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LL. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME CU SAT AFTERNOON AND WARMER TEMPS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. LL MOISTURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LL ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. THERE IS A CHANCE AN ISO TRW COULD DEVELOP. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES FRONT WASHES OUT AND MOISTURE DISSIPATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS DRY PATTERN CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR THIS PERIOD WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INTERRUPTION BEING EARLY MORNING ISOLATED FOG PATCHES YIELDING BRIEF
IFR. RECENT SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE TOO LITTLE MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO GENERATE MUCH CLOUDS NEVER MIND ANY PRECIPITATION.
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY 3-7 KTS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190157
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MOVES UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE WL PUSH SOUTH
OVERNGT.
WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...EXPECT SOME LOW LVL CLOUDS TO DVLP
WITH H85 SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TWRDS SUNRISE AS NE FLOW PICKS UP.
HOWEVER...RAMSDIS WV IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTING DIURNAL CU FIELD
DISSIPATING AS THEY DRIFT SOUTH. SO...HELD ON TO MOSTLY CLR
WORDING FOR ALL BUT NW TIER...WHERE MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A
SURGE OF LLVL RH AFTER MIDNIGHT (SEE AVIATION SXN BLO). USED PCLDY
WORDING LATE OVER THIS AREA.
WHILE NOT OPTIMAL RADIATING CONDS...WNDS SHUD STAY DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF RIC
AND FOR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE ERN SHORE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID
50S INLAND (COOLER IN FAVORED SPOTS)...TO THE 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RGN BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AS STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DVLPS BETWEEN DOMINANT
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND CAROLINA COASTAL SYSTEM. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S (UPR 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOOK FOR
P/C-P/S SKIES (ESP ERLY ON). SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY (ERN THIRD
OF THE CWA) AND WITH DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER FRI H92 WINDS
SUGGEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE
(ESP SE COAST).
NE FLOW CONTINUES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE COASTLINE. GREATEST CHC OF CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COAST
AND LESS FURTHER INLAND (ESP FAR NW). SLGHT CHC OF PRECIP ALONG THE
SE COAST ASSOCD WITH COASTAL LOW..BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. MUCH OF THE SAME ON SUN. LOW/HIGHS STILL BLO NORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO THE N KEEPS A RELATIVE DRY FCST THRU WED NITE
ALONG WITH A PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW. WEAK WAVE PROGGED ACROSS SERN
STATES MON NITE. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH LIFTG MSTR N WHILE ECMWF
KEEPS SGNFCNT MSTR JUST S OF FA. HAVE ADDED A SLGHT CHC OF R- TO
SERN ZONES MON NIGHT.
A STRNGR LOW PRS PROGGED TO DVLP OFF SERN COAST WED NITE THEN DRIFT
N ALONG MID ATLNTC COAST THU INTO FRI OF NXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL
ADD CHC RAIN THU AND THU NITE. THIS SYSTM WILL LIKELY HAVE A GREATER
MARINE IMPACT AS PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCRG PRS
GRDNT PROM HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL RESULT IN A XTNDD PRD OF SCA IF
NOT THE PTNTL FOR GALES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NE TO E WINDS HAVE VARIED IN DIRECTION BY 40 TO 50 DEGREES AT SOME
OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SPEED AND MORE CONSISTENCY IN WIND
DIRECTION BY FRI MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS AT
PHF AND ORF AND EXCEED IT AT TIMES AT ECG. THE WINDS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH A DROP IN H85 TEMP
SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS 2K TO 4K AGL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FRI. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SBY MAY COME CLOSE TO
SATURATION BUT CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT IFR THERE.
A LONG PERIOD OF NE TO E WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD FROM SAT NIGHT THRU WED. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THOSE OF FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
PER COORD WITH MHX...WILL HOLD ONTO STRNG SCA WITH THIS PACKAGE. A
FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QSTN FRI (LIKE AT THE ELEVATED
PLATFORM ON CHES LGT)...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO GO WITH
GALES SINCE THE STRNGEST WNDS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ACROSS OPEN WATERS.
THE INCRS IN PRS GRDNT BTWN LOW PRS TO THE S AND HIGH PRS TO THE N
WILL INCRS SEAS. BOTH WAVE WATCH AND SWAN MODELS ARE 8 FT SEAS ALONG
THE COAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THUS...WILL HOIST A HIGH SURF ADVSRY FROM
CAPE CHARLES LGT ON S TO CURRITUCK BEACH LGT. THIS WILL LINE UP WELL
WITH MHX`S HSA.
WNDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DMNSH N-S ON SAT AS GRDNT RELAXES. WILL XTND
SCA THRU 4TH PRD FOR ALL CSTL AREAS/XTREME SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK
SND AS WNDS/SEAS & WAVES MAY REMAIN AT SCA LVLS THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
GIVEN PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF
SCA ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LTST GUID SUGGESTS TIDES ARND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NRML FRI AND FRI NITE
FROM HAMPTON ROADS ON S. THIS COMBINED WITH PREDICTED HIGH TIDES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL ISSUE STATEMENT ON
THIS DUE TO TIDES ARND 5 FT ABV MLLW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-633-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190133
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
933 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ETA/GFS MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS
REGION AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
GRADIENT TONIGHT TO KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING DEAD CALM. KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FAR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S...BUT NO FROST ADVISORIES PLANNED.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 NORTH AND
UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL HOLD OVER REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES NORMAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SUNDAY BUT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 190059
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
859 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL
CONDITIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE EAST CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ACARS
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS IS SUPPORTING SPLIT FLOW...WITH A 80-150KT
CYCLONICLY CURVED JET OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND WESTERLIES ALONG
THE DEEP SOUTH. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWEST-WEST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A
1031MB ANTICYCLONE DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
GOES/GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT HAS
PRESSED THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD FROM THE DELMARVA. EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
TO INVADE THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS. NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND HAS BEST CHANCE OF
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MID 40S EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES AS A RESULT...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EAST
AND FAR WEST VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH UPSLP LOW LVL FLOW PERSISTING THRU EARLY FRI AFTN...WILL
MAINTAIN MOCLDY CONDITIONS THRU MID DAY. THIS CLD CVR WILL IMPACT
MAXIMA TMW...AND SO HAVE CONTD FCST WITH MAXIMA UPR 60S TO LWR 70S F.
DRY FCST CONTS WITH HIPRES DOMINANT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE NEW-ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ITS
WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
70 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. A STORM SYSTEM MAY
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR-VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER FROM NNE TO ENE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOWEST CEILINGS ANTICIPATED AS MIXING ENSUES
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH PERIODIC SCATTERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. FLOW
BECOMES EASTERLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE EAST
COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY BR COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CATEGORY
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT FRIDAY MAINTAINING
ADVISORY WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
GRADIENT SHOULD LESSEN SOME OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STG WINDS FRI THRU THE WKEND MAY RESULT IN HIGH TIDES SLGTLY ABV
NRML...SPCLY CHSPK BAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROGOWSKI
NEAR TERM...ROGOWSKI
SHORT TERM...KRAMAR
LONG TERM...LASORSA
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI/LASORSA
MARINE...ROGOWSKI/LASORSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRAMAR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182355
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
755 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MOVES UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ATTEMPT TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CU DVLPMNT OVER THE CWA ERLY THIS AFTN. QUESTION TURNS TO
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE RGN OVRNT WITH PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE RGN. THINKING
NAM/GFS OVERDONE AT H92-70 LVLS ON CLOUD COVER DURING THE ERLY
STAGES OF THE OVRNT HRS. PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED ON ENHANCED WV
IMGRY AND EVEN WHERE MOISTURE IS INCREASED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NEW ENGLD TO THE GRT LKS...ONLY FAIR WX CU IS ASSOCD WITH IT.
OVER THE CWA CU FIELD THAT DVLPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD
DISSIPATE A FEW HRS AFTER SUNSET LEADING TO CLR/MO CLR SKIES OVR THE
RGN LATE EVE/ERLY OVRNT. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES LATE TNT/TWRDS
AM...EXPECT SOME LOW LVL CLOUDS TO DVLP WITH H85 SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION TWRDS SUNRISE AS NE FLOW PICKS UP. LOWS TNT MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S INLAND (COOLER IN FAVORED SPOTS)...TO THE 60S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP ALONG THE WTRS TDY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TNT...ESP ALONG THE COAST (WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH LATE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RGN BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AS STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DVLPS BETWEEN DOMINANT
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND CAROLINA COASTAL SYSTEM. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S (UPR 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOOK FOR
P/C-P/S SKIES (ESP ERLY ON). SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY (ERN THIRD
OF THE CWA) AND WITH DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER FRI H92 WINDS
SUGGEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE
(ESP SE COAST).
NE FLOW CONTINUES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE COASTLINE. GREATEST CHC OF CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COAST
AND LESS FURTHER INLAND (ESP FAR NW). SLGHT CHC OF PRECIP ALONG THE
SE COAST ASSOCD WITH COASTAL LOW..BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. MUCH OF THE SAME ON SUN. LOW/HIGHS STILL BLO NORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO THE N KEEPS A RELATIVE DRY FCST THRU WED NITE
ALONG WITH A PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW. WEAK WAVE PROGGED ACROSS SERN
STATES MON NITE. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH LIFTG MSTR N WHILE ECMWF
KEEPS SGNFCNT MSTR JUST S OF FA. HAVE ADDED A SLGHT CHC OF R- TO
SERN ZONES MON NIGHT.
A STRNGR LOW PRS PROGGED TO DVLP OFF SERN COAST WED NITE THEN DRIFT
N ALONG MID ATLNTC COAST THU INTO FRI OF NXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL
ADD CHC RAIN THU AND THU NITE. THIS SYSTM WILL LIKELY HAVE A GREATER
MARINE IMPACT AS PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCRG PRS
GRDNT PROM HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL RESULT IN A XTNDD PRD OF SCA IF
NOT THE PTNTL FOR GALES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NE TO E WINDS HAVE VARIED IN DIRECTION BY 40 TO 50 DEGREES AT SOME
OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SPEED AND MORE CONSISTENCY IN WIND
DIRECTION BY FRI MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS AT
PHF AND ORF AND EXCEED IT AT TIMES AT ECG. THE WINDS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH A DROP IN H85 TEMP
SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS 2K TO 4K AGL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FRI. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SBY MAY COME CLOSE TO
SATURATION BUT CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT IFR THERE.
A LONG PERIOD OF NE TO E WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD FROM SAT NIGHT THRU WED. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THOSE OF FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
PER COORD WITH MHX...WILL HOLD ONTO STRNG SCA WITH THIS PACKAGE. A
FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QSTN FRI (LIKE AT THE ELEVATED
PLATFORM ON CHES LGT)...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO GO WITH
GALES SINCE THE STRNGEST WNDS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ACROSS OPEN WATERS.
THE INCRS IN PRS GRDNT BTWN LOW PRS TO THE S AND HIGH PRS TO THE N
WILL INCRS SEAS. BOTH WAVE WATCH AND SWAN MODELS ARE 8 FT SEAS ALONG
THE COAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THUS...WILL HOIST A HIGH SURF ADVSRY FROM
CAPE CHARLES LGT ON S TO CURRITUCK BEACH LGT. THIS WILL LINE UP WELL
WITH MHX`S HSA.
WNDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DMNSH N-S ON SAT AS GRDNT RELAXES. WILL XTND
SCA THRU 4TH PRD FOR ALL CSTL AREAS/XTREME SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK
SND AS WNDS/SEAS & WAVES MAY REMAIN AT SCA LVLS THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
GIVEN PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF
SCA ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LTST GUID SUGGESTS TIDES ARND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NRML FRI AND FRI NITE
FROM HAMPTON ROADS ON S. THIS COMBINED WITH PREDICTED HIGH TIDES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL ISSUE STATEMENT ON
THIS DUE TO TIDES ARND 5 FT ABV MLLW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-633-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 182055
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
455 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A CHILLY
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY
THEN SLOWLY NUDGE UP INTO THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NJ
ZONES ATTM. INTERACTION OF THIS FRONT WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
PRODUCED ENHANCED CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN
NJ...AND WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS/SPRINKLES TO DRIFT SOUTH RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY EVENING. THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE...WITH 40S NORTH/WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
SOME SPOTS IN THE POCONOS COULD GET INTO THE 30S...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
OF A LIGHT N-NE OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT COMPLETE DECOUPLING AS WELL AS
FROST FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRI...WITH AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN MOST PLACES...PERHAPS TOUCHING 70 ONLY IN/NEAR
PHILADELPHIA. AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FRI NIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE POCONOS AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE COAST...COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...COULD GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN COASTAL SECTIONS. DID NOT THESE CLOUDS AS
HARD AS GFS MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST...GOING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE ERODES CLOUD DECK FROM THE EDGES. PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO WEAKEN SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
ALONG THE COAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH DURING THE DAY
ON SUN...AND PASS THROUGH DURING SUN NIGHT. WHILE A LATE DAY SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHWEST SECTIONS
TOWARD EVENING...TIMING OF FROPA AT NIGHT STILL SUGGESTS DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PASSES S OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING...WITH ANOTHER LARGE
HIGH BUILDING SE FROM CANADA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF FALL-LIKE WX
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ON MON
AT 1144 AM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AND CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS
LATE WED NIGHT OR THU AS A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SPREADS MARITIME
AIR INTO THE AREA. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS...
MAINLY TAKING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHEST MAXES IN A NOD TO
PERSISTENT MAV MAX TEMP BIAS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...
EXCEPT 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...A
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE ESE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER
E...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM THROUGH SUNSET...A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE NJ COAST AND MOVED INLAND. AT 17Z...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBLM SSWWD W OF KACY AND KWWD. BKN CIGS BETWEEN 4
AND 5 THSD FT WILL BE ALONG AND W OF THIS SEA BREEZE. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL TAKE OVER THE SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z CAUSING E
WINDS ALONG THE NJ COAST TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET.
SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT...A STEADY NE WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KT IS
FORECAST AT KACY. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE NJ/PA BORDER W.
FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM
NE ALONG THE COAST TO ESE INLAND...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AT KACY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MON. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRES
FOR MON.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD SOUTH AND
EAST...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...AND WIND GUST SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. AS A RESULT...AN SCA
CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...AND COULD EVENTUALLY
BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AS SEAS MAY TAKE A
BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.
THE HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER ON SAT...WITH A DRY
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF PERSISTENT/BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITH SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW TONIGHT INTO FRI COULD PRODUCE TIDAL
DEPARTURES OF UP TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HIGH TIDES ON FRI...THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS...AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
GOODMAN/GC
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181933
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ETA/GFS MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS
REGION AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
GRADIENT TONIGHT TO KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING DEAD CALM. KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FAR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S...BUT NO FROST ADVISORIES PLANNED.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 NORTH AND
UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL HOLD OVER REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES NORMAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SUNDAY BUT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181932
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MOVES UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ATTEMPT TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CU DVLPMNT OVER THE CWA ERLY THIS AFTN. QUESTION TURNS TO
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE RGN OVRNT WITH PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE RGN. THINKING
NAM/GFS OVERDONE AT H92-70 LVLS ON CLOUD COVER DURING THE ERLY
STAGES OF THE OVRNT HRS. PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED ON ENHANCED WV
IMGRY AND EVEN WHERE MOISTURE IS INCREASED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NEW ENGLD TO THE GRT LKS...ONLY FAIR WX CU IS ASSOCD WITH IT.
OVER THE CWA CU FIELD THAT DVLPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD
DISSIPATE A FEW HRS AFTER SUNSET LEADING TO CLR/MO CLR SKIES OVR THE
RGN LATE EVE/ERLY OVRNT. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES LATE TNT/TWRDS
AM...EXPECT SOME LOW LVL CLOUDS TO DVLP WITH H85 SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION TWRDS SUNRISE AS NE FLOW PICKS UP. LOWS TNT MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S INLAND (COOLER IN FAVORED SPOTS)...TO THE 60S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP ALONG THE WTRS TDY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TNT...ESP ALONG THE COAST (WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH LATE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RGN BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AS STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DVLPS BETWEEN DOMINANT
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND CAROLINA COASTAL SYSTEM. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S (UPR 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOOK FOR
P/C-P/S SKIES (ESP ERLY ON). SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY (ERN THIRD
OF THE CWA) AND WITH DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER FRI H92 WINDS
SUGGEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE
(ESP SE COAST).
NE FLOW CONTINUES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE COASTLINE. GREATEST CHC OF CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COAST
AND LESS FURTHER INLAND (ESP FAR NW). SLGHT CHC OF PRECIP ALONG THE
SE COAST ASSOCD WITH COASTAL LOW..BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. MUCH OF THE SAME ON SUN. LOW/HIGHS STILL BLO NORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO THE N KEEPS A RELATIVE DRY FCST THRU WED NITE
ALONG WITH A PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW. WEAK WAVE PROGGED ACROSS SERN
STATES MON NITE. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH LIFTG MSTR N WHILE ECMWF
KEEPS SGNFCNT MSTR JUST S OF FA. HAVE ADDED A SLGHT CHC OF R- TO
SERN ZONES MON NIGHT.
A STRNGR LOW PRS PROGGED TO DVLP OFF SERN COAST WED NITE THEN DRIFT
N ALONG MID ATLNTC COAST THU INTO FRI OF NXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL
ADD CHC RAIN THU AND THU NITE. THIS SYSTM WILL LIKELY HAVE A GREATER
MARINE IMPACT AS PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCRG PRS
GRDNT PROM HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL RESULT IN A XTNDD PRD OF SCA IF
NOT THE PTNTL FOR GALES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH NE WINDS. STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN PA PUSHING SOUTHWARD. HI WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI WITH FRONT PUSHING OFF DELMARVA COAST BUT WASHING OUT TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH AND OLD BNDRY
OFF THE COAST AND INCREASING SFC WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. ALSO CHC OF SOME SCT/BKN CIGS 040-060 DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
NEAR COASTAL AREAS WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDS FRI AND THRU THE WEEKEND. CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER NE NC AND SE VA BY SUN AS WEAK LOW MOVES NORTH FROM SE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
PER COORD WITH MHX...WILL HOLD ONTO STRNG SCA WITH THIS PACKAGE. A
FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QSTN FRI (LIKE AT THE ELEVATED
PLATFORM ON CHES LGT)...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO GO WITH
GALES SINCE THE STRNGEST WNDS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ACROSS OPEN WATERS.
THE INCRS IN PRS GRDNT BTWN LOW PRS TO THE S AND HIGH PRS TO THE N
WILL INCRS SEAS. BOTH WAVE WATCH AND SWAN MODELS ARE 8 FT SEAS ALONG
THE COAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THUS...WILL HOIST A HIGH SURF ADVSRY FROM
CAPE CHARLES LGT ON S TO CURRITUCK BEACH LGT. THIS WILL LINE UP WELL
WITH MHX`S HSA.
WNDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DMNSH N-S ON SAT AS GRDNT RELAXES. WILL XTND
SCA THRU 4TH PRD FOR ALL CSTL AREAS/XTREME SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK
SND AS WNDS/SEAS & WAVES MAY REMAIN AT SCA LVLS THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
GIVEN PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF
SCA ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LTST GUID SUGGESTS TIDES ARND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NRML FRI AND FRI NITE
FROM HAMPTON ROADS ON S. THIS COMBINED WITH PREDICTED HIGH TIDES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL ISSUE STATEMENT ON
THIS DUE TO TIDES ARND 5 FT ABV MLLW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-633-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 181901
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS. A DRY COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NLY LOW LVL WINDS WILL VEER TO ELY BY LATE TNGT AS SFC HIPRES
BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH ELY WINDS ABV FRONTAL LYR...XPCG
STRATUS DECK TO DVLP LATE TNGT ERN ZONES. AS LOW LVL FLOW BCMS
MORE ELY...UPSLP FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW CLDS TO SPREAD WWD BY MRNG.
DESPITE DRY AIR INVADING...CLD CVR WILL PRECLUDE OPTIMAL COOLING
BY RADIATION...AND SO HAVE WARMED MINIMA TNGT BY A FEW DEG F...
SPCLY ERN ZONES...WHERE CLD CVR XPCD TO DVLP FIRST.
PCPN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS UPR SUPPORT LACKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH UPSLP LOW LVL FLOW PERSISTING THRU EARLY FRI AFTN...WILL
MAINTAIN MOCLDY CONDITIONS THRU MID DAY. THIS CLD CVR WILL IMPACT
MAXIMA TMW...AND SO HAVE CONTD FCST WITH MAXIMA UPR 60S TO LWR 70S
F.
DRY FCST CONTS WITH HIPRES DOMINANT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE NEW-ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ITS
WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
70 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. A STORM SYSTEM MAY
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CU FIELD SHUD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS EVE. LOW
LVL FLOW VEERS TO ELY BY LATE TNGT...WHICH WILL ALLOW ADVCTN OF
MSTR ATOP SFC RDG. THUS...XPCG STRATUS DECK TO DVLP LATE TNGT AND
SPREAD WWD ACRS ALL TERMINALS. WITH UPSLP LOW LVL FLOW PERSISTING
INTO FRI MID DAY...ANY STRATUS SHUD FOLLOW SUIT...BEFORE ERODING
BY LATE AFTN FRI.
CLD CVR TNGT MAY PREVENT FORMATION OF FOG AS TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER
TO COOL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY BR COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADZY CONTS THRU FRI AFTN AS HIPRES SURGES XPCD TO
MAINTAIN STG NLY TO ELY FLOW ACRS WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
GRADIENT SHOULD LESSEN SOME OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STG WINDS FRI THRU THE WKEND MAY RESULT IN HIGH TIDES SLGTLY ABV
NRML...SPCLY CHSPK BAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
KRAMAR/LASORSA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 181754
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIA AFTERNOON...WITH NO
MORE THAN SOME POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. A
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, YET
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS OF
15Z...AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. LATEST NAM
DOING PRETTY WELL PINPOINTING POST-FRONTAL CU AND WAS USED AS
BASIS FOR ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM INITIAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL, AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE AMS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
ONE FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP, THERE COULD BE SOME
SC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS IN THE MORNING. ANY SC
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE DAY, WITH FULL OR ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND PLEASANT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN. THE FIRST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FIRST HIGH RETREATS, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED, SO
WHILE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT LOOKS AS IF A TOUCH OF FALL WILL
BE RIGHT ON TIME AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS MONDAY AT 1144 AM.
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS IN
DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE SE COAST AND MOVING IT NWD. AS A RESULT,
THE NAM SOLN BRINGS SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE SE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE NAM IS ALONE WITH THIS SCENARIO,
WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEP THINGS
DRY.
OVERALL, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH STAYS TO THE N.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...A
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE ESE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER
E...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM THROUGH SUNSET...A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE NJ COAST AND MOVED INLAND. AT 17Z...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBLM SSWWD W OF KACY AND KWWD. BKN CIGS BETWEEN 4
AND 5 THSD FT WILL BE ALONG AND W OF THIS SEA BREEZE. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL TAKE OVER THE SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z CAUSING E
WINDS ALONG THE NJ COAST TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET.
SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT...A STEADY NE WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KT IS
FORECAST AT KACY. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE NJ/PA BORDER W.
FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM
NE ALONG THE COAST TO ESE INLAND...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AT KACY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MON. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRES
FOR MON.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRI.
THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN A
NORTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO START MIXING TO THE SURFACE. IT
SHOULD BEGIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14
KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S. AFTER
SUNSET, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT AND THE
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. ALL IN ALL, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE CANADIAN
ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE
HIGH WILL CAUSE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY AND WIND GUST SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
AS WAVES MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.
THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.
RIP CURRENTS...
WITH THE INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY, WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CARRY A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE
AND AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY`S HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS BETWEEN
1100 AM AND NOON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND
ONE FOOT WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. BASED ON THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, THOSE DEPARTURES ARE ATTAINABLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GC/IOVINO
MARINE...GOODMAN/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181727
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CONTINUING TO FORM OVER NORTHWEST PA LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
FORECAST PARTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY
ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG SFC HIGH. WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER SFC
GRADIENT AROUND BACK SIDE OF HIGH SHOULD KEEP LL WINDS UP ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST.
SLOW MOVING HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND SEASONABLE ON SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN LOOKS AS
IF WE WILL ONLY SEE CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND
FRONT FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY PROVIDING FAIR
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
BRING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING FAIR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 181555
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIA AFTERNOON...WITH NO
MORE THAN SOME POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. A
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, YET
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS OF
15Z...AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. LATEST NAM
DOING PRETTY WELL PINPOINTING POST-FRONTAL CU AND WAS USED AS
BASIS FOR ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM INITIAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL, AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE AMS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
ONE FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP, THERE COULD BE SOME
SC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS IN THE MORNING. ANY SC
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE DAY, WITH FULL OR ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND PLEASANT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN. THE FIRST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FIRST HIGH RETREATS, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED, SO
WHILE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT LOOKS AS IF A TOUCH OF FALL WILL
BE RIGHT ON TIME AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS MONDAY AT 1144 AM.
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS IN
DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE SE COAST AND MOVING IT NWD. AS A RESULT,
THE NAM SOLN BRINGS SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE SE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE NAM IS ALONE WITH THIS SCENARIO,
WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEP THINGS
DRY.
OVERALL, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH STAYS TO THE N.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRI.
THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN A
NORTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO START MIXING TO THE SURFACE. IT
SHOULD BEGIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14
KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S. AFTER
SUNSET, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT AND THE
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. ALL IN ALL, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE CANADIAN
ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE
HIGH WILL CAUSE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY AND WIND GUST SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
AS WAVES MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.
THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.
RIP CURRENTS...
WITH THE INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY, WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CARRY A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE
AND AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY`S HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS BETWEEN
1100 AM AND NOON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND
ONE FOOT WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. BASED ON THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, THOSE DEPARTURES ARE ATTAINABLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GC/IOVINO
MARINE...GOODMAN/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181521
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1121 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CONTINUING TO FORM OVER NORTHWEST PA LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
FORECAST PARTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY
ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG SFC HIGH. WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER SFC
GRADIENT AROUND BACK SIDE OF HIGH SHOULD KEEP LL WINDS UP ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST.
SLOW MOVING HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND SEASONABLE ON SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN LOOKS AS
IF WE WILL ONLY SEE CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND
FRONT FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR INTO MONDAY AS RECENT SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST 7-10 KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS BASES OVER NORTHWEST PA WILL BE AROUND 3000 FEET
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO NEAR 4000 FEET LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 181350 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
950 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLR SKIES THIS MRNG WILL GIVE RISE TO SCT CU FIELD THIS AFTN AS
DRY CDFNT MOVES THRU. MAXIMA UPR 70S MOST ZONES REASONABLE AND
CONTD FROM PREV FCST. HAVE MADE MODIFICATIONS TO DWPT GRIDS IN LGT
OF CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE...GOING PCKG IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TDA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WK BACKDOOR CDFNT PASSES S OF CWFA THIS EVNG. AM CONCERNED ABT THE
SUBSEQUENT ENELY FLOW ACRS AREA...SPCLY SRN CWFA. NAM BUFKIT
SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF CLDS ACRS AREA. GFS MUCH MORE
RESERVED. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO W/ A MOCLDY FCST /SINCE MEAN
LYR RH SO DRY TO START/...THO IT REMAINS A DISTINCT PSBLTY. WL KEEP
IT PTCLDY /MAINLY DC S/...AND LET FUTURE RUNS GO FM THERE.
FLOW OFF WATER WL KEEP IT WARMER I-95 E...BUT OTRW RADL COOLING SHUD
PREVAIL. A MOS MIX REFLECTS THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. A SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN LIFT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS. STILL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REGAIN AT LEAST SOME CONTROL FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BEYOND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS WL BE VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...INTO TNGT. A
DECENT /10-12 KT SUSTAINED/ N WND SHUD VEER NE BHD CFP LT TDA. IT
MAY BRING IN MARITIME CLDS OVNGT. WL ADDRESS THAT ISSUE W/ 12Z
PKG.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEXT
WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
WNDS LGT ON THE WATERS ATTM...BUT SHUD PICK UP IN ADVC OF BACKDOOR
CDFNT LT TDA. SURGE REALLY GETS CRANKING TNGT. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 18Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW G20 KT THRU THE AFTN...SO WL
LEAVE HEADLINE START TIME ALONE. BUT...WND FCSTS WL STEP UP TO A
SOLID 20 KT TNGT.
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE MAY
LEAD TO A MINOR INCREASE IN TIDAL DEPARTURES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRAMAR
PREV DISC...HTS/SAR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 181047
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND IS
CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN DURING THE DAY AND ANOTHER DRY
AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE. OVERALL, STAT GUID LOOKS GOOD AND WAS
ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL, AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE AMS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
ONE FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP, THERE COULD BE SOME
SC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS IN THE MORNING. ANY SC
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE DAY, WITH FULL OR ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND PLEASANT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN. THE FIRST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FIRST HIGH RETREATS, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED, SO
WHILE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT LOOKS AS IF A TOUCH OF FALL WILL
BE RIGHT ON TIME AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS MONDAY AT 1144 AM.
THE NAM/WRF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS IN
DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE SERN COAST AND MOVING IT NWD. AS A RESULT,
THE NAM/WRF SOLN BRINGS SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE SERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE NAM/WRF IS ALONE WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEP
THINGS DRY.
OVERALL, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH STAYS TO THE N.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO DURING THE
NIGHT, WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE HIGH WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, ENDING AT 1200Z ON FRIDAY.
THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN A
NORTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO START MIXING TO THE SURFACE. IT
SHOULD BEGIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14
KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S. AFTER
SUNSET, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT AND THE
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. ALL IN ALL, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING, IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING
OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF CANADA`S ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND WIND
GUST SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 400 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AS WAVES MAY
TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.
THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.
RIP CURRENTS...
WITH THE INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY, WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CARRY A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE
AND AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY`S HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS BETWEEN
1100 AM AND NOON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND
ONE FOOT WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. BASED ON THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, THOSE DEPARTURES ARE ATTAINABLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPHI 180901
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM CANADA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND IS
CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN DURING THE DAY AND ANOTHER DRY
AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE. OVERALL, STAT GUID LOOKS GOOD AND WAS
ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL, AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE AMS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
ONE FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP, THERE COULD BE SOME
SC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS IN THE MORNING. ANY SC
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE DAY, WITH FULL OR ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND PLEASANT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN. THE FIRST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FIRST HIGH RETREATS, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED, SO
WHILE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT LOOKS AS IF A TOUCH OF FALL WILL
BE RIGHT ON TIME AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS MONDAY AT 1144 AM.
THE NAM/WRF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS IN
DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE SERN COAST AND MOVING IT NWD. AS A RESULT,
THE NAM/WRF SOLN BRINGS SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE SERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE NAM/WRF IS ALONE WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEP
THINGS DRY.
OVERALL, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH STAYS TO THE N.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO DURING THE
NIGHT, WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE HIGH WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, ENDING AT 0600Z ON FRIDAY.
THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FOG, MAINLY AT OUR
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TAF SITES, KRDG AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WE HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ITS MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WE WILL SIMPLY KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.
AFTER DAYBREAK, A NORTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO START MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. IT SHOULD BEGIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S. AFTER SUNSET, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE A LITTLE BIT AND THE GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. ALL IN ALL, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING, IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING
OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF CANADA`S ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND WIND
GUST SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 400 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AS WAVES MAY
TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.
THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY`S HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS BETWEEN
1100 AM AND NOON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND
ONE FOOT WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. BASED ON THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, THOSE DEPARTURES ARE ATTAINABLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180800
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MOVES UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ATTEMPT TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENTLY HAVE DEEP UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY...WITH STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO...AND PROGGED TO TRACK ESE INTO
NORTHERN NY STATE LATER TODAY...AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE NNW THIS MORNING...BEFORE TURNING TO
THE NE BY AFTN. AREA MODEL SNDGS SHOW VERY DRY AIRMASS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY...SO EXPECT MSUNNY CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH SCT
AFTN CU FIELD DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS SUGGEST HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 80
INTERIOR TO MID/UPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS DEEPER NE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT...SNDGS ARE HINTING AT
INCREASING MSTR BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HAVE BUMPED CLOUDS COVER TO PTLY CLOUDY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY. GFS EVEN SHOWING A FEW SPOTTY
LGT QPF AMTS ON FRI...BUT WILL DISREGARD THIS FOR NOW AS MSTR
ABOVE 700 MB IS VERY LOW.
ON FRI AS THE 1035 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND CSTL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH
WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY. ERN THIRD OF THE CWA COULD SEE
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG/NEAR THE COAST. 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO ABOUT +8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS SHOW A MUCH
COOLER DAY...A FEW AREAS ON ERN SHORE MAY NOT EVEN HIT 70
DEGREES...WITH MOST OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. OVERALL WENT PTLY SUNNY...BUT AS NOTED ABOVE WITH MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850MB (AND LACK OF
ANY DOWNSLOPE DRYING)...IT COULD BE MORE CLOUDY THAN SUNNY FOR A FEW HRS.
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH NOSES DOWN A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...FOLLOWING
CLOSER TO GFS THAN WETTER NAM SOLN. TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRI...BUT STILL A FEW DEG BLO NRML. ADDED A 20% POP SAT AFTN TO NE
NC...OTHERWISE STILL GOING DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR DRY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER SFC
HIGH PUSHES DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING N TO NE FLOW TO PERSIST NEARLY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WL DOMINATE WX ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR CLIMO VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE WRT THE AVIATION FORECAST OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS GUSTY
WINDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST...NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
XPECT GUSTS AROUND THE 20 KT RANGE TODAY...WITH RATHER GUSTY WINDS
(25 TO 30 KTS) AT COASTAL SITES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS STEADILY INCREASE OVR THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND THRU THE
AFTN AS STRONG 1030+MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THRU
FRI...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SAT. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING S/W`S MOVE ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/SREF WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE
STRONGER NAM. GFS SOLN SUPPRESSES THE SFC TROUGH ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH
TO SLACKEN THE GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN THE NAM SOLN. WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP WNDS TO STRONG SCA RATHER THAN GALE. HV KEPT
ALL WATRS AT STRONG SCA FOR NOW...BUT CUD SEE THE GALE FLAG POSSIBLY
BEING NEEDED FOR AT LEAST OUR SRN WATERS AS 925/850MB WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENUF AND MIX DOWN TO PRODUCE GUSTS AROUND 35 KT. WILL CAP OFF
AROUND 30 KT FOR NOW.
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. CUD
POSSIBLY SEE SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WTRS LASTING THRU THRU THE
WEEKEND FOR SEAS...BUT CUT OFF SCA HEADLINE AT SAT MORN FOR TIME
BEING.
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES...BUT GIVEN GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PATTERN OF PERSISTENT NE FLOW...EXPECT TIDAL
ANOMALIES OF ONLY ABOUT 1/2 FT ABV NORM TODAY...THEN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY PEAK LATER FRI AND SAT. SEWELLS PT/VA
BCH AND DUCK NC...COULD BE DEALING WITH TIDES 1-2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH WOULD BE INTO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...SMF
MARINE...SMF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SMF
000
FXUS61 KPHI 180755
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM CANADA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND IS
CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN DURING THE DAY AND ANOTHER DRY
AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE. OVERALL, STAT GUID LOOKS GOOD AND WAS
ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL, AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE AMS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
ONE FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP, THERE COULD BE SOME
SC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS IN THE MORNING. ANY SC
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE DAY, WITH FULL OR ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND PLEASANT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN. THE FIRST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FIRST HIGH RETREATS, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED, SO
WHILE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT LOOKS AS IF A TOUCH OF FALL WILL
BE RIGHT ON TIME ASS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS MONDAY AT 1144 AM.
THE NAM/WRF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS IN
DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE SERN COAST AND MOVING IT NWD. AS A RESULT,
THE NAM/WRF SOLN BRINGS SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE SERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE NAM/WRF IS ALONE WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEP
THINGS DRY.
OVERALL, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH STAYS TO THE N.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO DURING THE
NIGHT, WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE HIGH WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, ENDING AT 0600Z ON FRIDAY.
THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FOG, MAINLY AT OUR
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TAF SITES, KRDG AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WE HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ITS MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WE WILL SIMPLY KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.
AFTER DAYBREAK, A NORTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO START MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. IT SHOULD BEGIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S. AFTER SUNSET, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE A LITTLE BIT AND THE GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. ALL IN ALL, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING, IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING
OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF CANADA`S ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND WIND
GUST SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 400 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AS WAVES MAY
TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.
THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY`S HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS BETWEEN
1100 AM AND NOON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND
ONE FOOT WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. BASED ON THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, THOSE DEPARTURES ARE ATTAINABLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KLWX 180743
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR/CALM/DRY CONDS ACRS CWFA ATTM HAS LED TO DROPPING TEMPS AND
PATCHY FOG FORMING. AT XPCTD W/ WATER TEMPS IN THE 70S...FOG MAINLY
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS. YDA/S FOG DIDNT SURVIVE MUCH PAST
SUNRISE...AND XPCT MUCH THE SAME TO TRANSPIRE TDA.
ALSO OF NOTE IS A WK CDFNT ACRS NEW ENGLND/SRN NYS/PA. ITS A REAL
SHALLOW/SUBTLE FEATURE...BUT IT CAN BE DISTINGUISHED ON SATPIX. THAT
BNDRY SHUD BE THRU SOMETIME TAFTN. ACCOMPANYING SUPPORT NIL...SO
XPCT A FEW CLDS W/ IT...OTRW IT WL HARDLY BE NOTICED.
H8 TEMPS CLIMB A CPL TDA PRIOR TO SFC CFP. SO...HV TAKEN A SIMLR
COURSE OF ACTION FOR MAXT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WK BACKDOOR CDFNT PASSES S OF CWFA THIS EVNG. AM CONCERNED ABT THE
SUBSEQUENT ENELY FLOW ACRS AREA...SPCLY SRN CWFA. NAM BUFKIT
SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF CLDS ACRS AREA. GFS MUCH MORE
RESERVED. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO W/ A MOCLDY FCST /SINCE MEAN
LYR RH SO DRY TO START/...THO IT REMAINS A DISTINCT PSBLTY. WL KEEP
IT PTCLDY /MAINLY DC S/...AND LET FUTURE RUNS GO FM THERE.
FLOW OFF WATER WL KEEP IT WARMER I-95 E...BUT OTRW RADL COOLING SHUD
PREVAIL. A MOS MIX REFLECTS THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. A SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN LIFT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS. STILL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REGAIN AT LEAST SOME CONTROL FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BEYOND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TAFS PROVING TO BE TRICKY...SPCLY CHO/MRB WHICH ARE CLIMO FVRD FOR
FOG. THOSE TWO SITES MVFR VSBY TEETERING ON IFR. WL FCST VSBYS TO
DROP TO IFR TEMPO LIFR TIL SUNRISE. WL ALSO DIP IAD TO MVFR TEMPO
IFR PREDAWN. PATCHY GF MADE APPEARANCE NEAR 04Z AT LWX. UNSURE IF IT
WL MAKE IT OVR TO AIRPORT COMPLEX...AMDS MAY BE REQD. VFR ELSW.
ANY ELY MRNG RESTRICTIONS SHUD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTR SUNRISE. ALL
TERMINALS WL BE VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...INTO TNGT. A DECENT
/10-12 KT SUSTAINED/ N WND SHUD VEER NE BHD CFP LT TDA. IT MAY BRING
IN MARITIME CLDS OVNGT. WL ADDRESS THAT ISSUE W/ 12Z PKG.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEXT
WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
WNDS LGT ON THE WATERS ATTM...BUT SHUD PICK UP IN ADVC OF BACKDOOR
CDFNT LT TDA. SURGE REALLY GETS CRANKING TNGT. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 18Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW G20 KT THRU THE AFTN...SO WL
LEAVE HEADLINE START TIME ALONE. BUT...WND FCSTS WL STEP UP TO A
SOLID 20 KT TNGT.
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE MAY
LEAD TO A MINOR INCREASE IN TIDAL DEPARTURES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...HTS/SAR
MARINE...HTS/SAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180539
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
APPEARS THE MOST THIS FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER IS SOME CLOUDS.
EXPECT PS TO MS SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG SFC HIGH. WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER SFC
GRADIENT AROUND BACK SIDE OF HIGH SHOULD KEEP LL WINDS UP ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST.
SLOW MOVING HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND SEASONABLE ON SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN LOOKS AS
IF WE WILL ONLY SEE CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND
FRONT FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING ISOLATED FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIALLY
SHORT-LIVED IFR NEAR WATER BODIES, EXPECT VFR INTO MONDAY AS RECENT
SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 7-10
KTS. DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
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