000
FXUS61 KOKX 200335
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1135 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA DOWN THE
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MAY GRAZE THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWERING STRATO CU NOW OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
GENERALLY EVERYWHERE...BUT NOT SO SURE ABOUT THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE CT...SO HAVE KEPT THEM PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO MINIMAL T/TD SPREAD
FROM GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY
NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT THIS. HAVE ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST
LAV GUIDANCE IN HOURLY T/TD GRIDS AS IT APPEARED REASONABLE.
ZFP/AFM/PFM/FTP UPDATED.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN NYC AND ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE...WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHERNMOST VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN WAVES OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO HAVE
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH FROPA...ALSO POST-FROPA FOR LONG
ISLAND AND CT WHERE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE MARITIME IN
NATURE.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH LOWER 80S FOR MANY
AREAS EXCEPT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN LI/CT...THEN COOL
DOWN TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL AFTER FROPA ON MON...WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERSISTENT NE-E CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE AREA.
THERE CONTINUES TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW CLOSE A LOW OFF THE
SE COAST WILL APPROACH IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SURFACE LOW...HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND THEN WIND DIRECTIONS SAT
AFTN.

CONDITIONS START OFF VFR UNDER A LIGHT E-NE FLOW (LESS THAN 10
KT). CU FIELD HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND...JUST A FEW AT 4-4.5K REMAIN.
HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD COVER
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS MOVING THIS
WAY. WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT AROUND 900 MB AND A SEMI-
ONSHORE FLOW...THINK AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. KSWF MAY BE THE ONLY ONE TO ESCAPE BKN MVFR
CIGS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION TO BECOME MINIMAL...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY LATE
TONIGHT.

SKIES WILL SCT OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. MAJOR DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MOS/LAMP
GUIDANCE WITH WIND DIRECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST HAS ON US. HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION...KEEPING A
NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. LAND/SEA TEMP DIFFERENTIAL NOT
THAT GREAT...BUT LATE DAY WEAK SEABREEZE COULD OCCUR AT KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HI PRES OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
WEAK CDFNT SUN NIGHT/MON TIME FRAME. ATTM FRONT LOOKS DRY WITH A
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH NELY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...JUST TWEAKED WINDS AND
WAVES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATED CWF TO KEEP WORDING
FRESH.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH THE AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...A
PERSISTENT NE-E FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SAT...BUT SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. WAVEWATCH
PREDICTS 5-FT SWELL INTO SUNDAY AS WELL...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE.

PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...A WEAK EASTERLY SWELL
AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG NEW YORK ATLANTIC BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLD FROPA ON MON...AS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANOTHER STRONG INLAND HIGH...AND A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A PERSISTENT
NE-E FLOW OVER THE WATERS KEEPING MAX OCEAN SEAS 5+ FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2
FT ABOVE NORMAL OCCURRED WITH THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN JAMAICA
BAY AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...WHICH NECESSITATED
ISSUANCE OF A SHORT FUSED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. DEPARTURES OF UP
TO 1 FT ELSEWHERE BROUGHT WATER LEVELS AT THE BATTERY TO WITHIN A
HAIR OF MINOR FLOODING CRITERIA.

NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY FOR THE NASSAU SOUTH
SHORE BACK BAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200208
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. THIS WILL GENERALLY MEAN FAIR SKIES...DRY
WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WHERE SOME CLOUDS AND SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
OCEAN CLOUDS ARE BACKING IN ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. THESE
CLOUDS ARE REFLECTED QUITE WELL BY THE GFS 925 MB RH FIELD WHICH
INDICATES INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REACH AS FAR INLAND AS
I95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. UPDATES GRIDS AND ZFP TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH MOST CLOUDS IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR POSSIBLY A FEW
DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE URBAN
CENTERS. EXPECT MINS BY SUNRISE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. FOR WESTERN MA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NH TEMPS WILL
DIP INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S...FROST ADVSY WILL CONTINUE.

MAY ALSO SEE ISOLD FROST ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN MA BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MAY PROHIBIT FROST.

PATCHY RADIATION FOG LIKELY GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A FROSTY START FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SAT MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S...EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IT WILL LIKELY FEEL EVEN WARMER GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. COULD HAVE SOME LEFTOVER STRATO-CU ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IN NE GRADIENT FLOW.

BEACH FORECAST...DESPITE WINDS DIMINISHING THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN
ROUGH WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SAT. SEAS WILL TRANSITION FROM WIND WAVES
TO SWELLS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT LEFTOVER WAVE ENERGY TO
YIELD ROUGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ACROSS EAST FACING OCEAN
EXPOSED BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. ALTHOUGH NOT AN IDEAL
BEACH DAY WITH AIR TEMPS ONLY 65-70...WATER TEMPS WILL BE JUST AS
WARM. THUS ANYONE HEADING INTO THE WATER SAT WILL ENCOUNTER ROUGH
SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEASONABLY COOL ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW MINOR WRINKLES...BUT
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE SUNDAY AS WE HEAT UP A BIT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT A SHOWER WITH THIS
FEATURE...HOWEVER THE COLUMN LOOKS A BIT DRY SO DIDN/T GO ANY HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD MEAN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR BOTH THOSE PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER...OR MOST LIKELY SPOTTY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE MAY BE A SHARP LINE BETWEEN CLOUDY SKIES AND
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH MAY BE OVER NORTHERN MASS OR SOUTHERN NH. MAXES
SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT FOR THOSE THAT SEE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.

TUE THRU FRI LOOKS FAIR WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. ANY CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT STRATO-CU FROM 3-4 KFT. BKN CIGS OF
3-4 KFT HYA/FMH/ACK MAY REACH BOS/PVD OVERNIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT BDL/BAF/MHT.

SAT...VFR...BUT BKN CIGS AT 2-3KFT POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AT
PVD/FMH/HYA/ACK.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT
BDL/BAF/MHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR SUNDAY. FROPA OCCURS DURING AFTERNOON SO SOME AREAS OF
MVFR POSSIBLE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR CLOUD DECK LIKELY
AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLEARING OCCURS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH MON AFTN OR NIGHT WITH VFR RETURNING. VFR TUE AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
ENE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS /4-7FT/ FOR ALL THE OCEAN
WATERS. NEAR SHORE...WE HAVE DROPPED SCA FOR RI AND BID SOUND AS SEAS
BELOW 5 FT.

SAT...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS. FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS SEAS LIKELY REMAINING SOMEWHAT ROUGH WITH HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7
FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY SUBSIDING BELOW
5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFTING TO NE LATE IN THE DAY OR
NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT EARLY MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS TO
REACH SCA LEVELS MONDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008-009.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KALY 200154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BRIEF UPDATE TO ADJUST T/TDS TRENDS FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CURRENT MINS AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR WARREN AND WINDHAM COUNTIES...AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S THERE LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SCT AREAS OF FROST.
ONLY MINOR CHANGE IS TO ADD SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AS CURRENT IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AND THE FINGER LAKES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THESE
CLOUDS ARE PRETTY THIN....SO WOULDN/T THINK THEY/D HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON FORECASTS LOWS. 00Z ALY SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO NEAR BODIES OF WATER. AFTER SUNRISE...WOULD EXPECT
ANY FOG TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE...AND TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY...ENDING
THE FROST THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LOVELY DAY WITH A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING. H850 TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND
10-11C IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING FROM 900-850 HPA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REACH THE U60S TO L70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS AND
MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE MTNS.

SAT NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR
WILL CREEP CLOSER TO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW EVENINGS. WE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS TO THE SRN ADIRONDACKS BTWN 09Z-12Z.

SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. SOME LAKE MOISTURE MAY GET TAPPED...BUT EVEN
THOUGH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE SPOTTY QPF IN THE 0.01"-0.10"
RANGE...THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO DRY. WE DID KEEP ISOLD SHRAS IN THE
GRIDS DURING THE DAY /MAYBE IT WILL ONLY BE SPRINKLES/...BUT
OVERALL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP SPOTTY
PCPN WITH A H500 SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH. WE ARE NOT BUYING INTO THIS...WITH JUST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND A 1030+MB SFC ANTICYCLONE
RIDGES SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY. H850 TEMPS FALL TO ABOUT 5-8C
OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WOULD EXPECT NEARLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CWA
ALL WEEK. ALSO WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LENGTHENING
NIGHTS...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE ON FRIDAY...BUT THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO SEE IF AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SPREADS SOME
SHOWERS NORTHWARD AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL JUST KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE FRI/FRI NIGHT PERIOD
WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER PERSISTING
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SOME RADIATION FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN FOR A
TIME AT KGFL OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS COMMENCING SOMETIME
AROUND 07Z...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 11Z-12Z. AIR MASS IS DRY SO NO FOG
EXPECTED AT KALB...WHILE KPOU MAY EXPERIENCE JUST SOME PATCHY BR AND
MVFR VSBY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 5 TO 7 KT BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NITE-SUN...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KGFL. SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.
MON-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVERING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION IN MANY AREAS...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE DRY SPELL WILL
CONTINUE TO POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ042-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ014-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...15/11
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 200059
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
859 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA DOWN THE
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MAY GRAZE THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. MAV HAS DONE WELL ON GOOD RADIATING NIGHTS
OF LATE AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH...SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN NYC AND ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
LONG ISLAND...TO THE 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERNMOST VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE...STRATOCU STREAMERS OFFSHORE MAY DRIFT INTO NYC METRO
AND COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE.
ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT GROUND FOG FOR AREAS THAT
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS TEMPS LOWER TO NEAR DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN WAVES OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO HAVE
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH FROPA...ALSO POST-FROPA FOR LONG
ISLAND AND CT WHERE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE MARITIME IN
NATURE.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH LOWER 80S FOR MANY
AREAS EXCEPT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN LI/CT...THEN COOL
DOWN TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL AFTER FROPA ON MON...WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERSISTENT NE-E CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE AREA.
THERE CONTINUES TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW CLOSE A LOW OFF THE
SE COAST WILL APPROACH IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SURFACE LOW...HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND THEN WIND DIRECTIONS SAT
AFTN.

CONDITIONS START OFF VFR UNDER A LIGHT E-NE FLOW (LESS THAN 10
KT). CU FIELD HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND...JUST A FEW AT 4-4.5K REMAIN.
HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD COVER
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS MOVING THIS
WAY. WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT AROUND 900 MB AND A SEMI-
ONSHORE FLOW...THINK AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. KSWF MAY BE THE ONLY ONE TO ESCAPE BKN MVFR
CIGS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION TO BECOME MINIMAL...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY LATE
TONIGHT.

SKIES WILL SCT OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. MAJOR DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MOS/LAMP
GUIDANCE WITH WIND DIRECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST HAS ON US. HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION...KEEPING A
NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. LAND/SEA TEMP DIFFERENTIAL NOT
THAT GREAT...BUT LATE DAY WEAK SEABREEZE COULD OCCUR AT KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HI PRES OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
WEAK CDFNT SUN NIGHT/MON TIME FRAME. ATTM FRONT LOOKS DRY WITH A
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH NELY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...A PERSISTENT NE-E FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...WITH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SAT...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS INTO AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. WAVEWATCH PREDICTS 5-FT SWELL
INTO SUNDAY AS WELL...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE.

PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...A WEAK EASTERLY SWELL
AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG NEW YORK ATLANTIC BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLD FROPA ON MON...AS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANOTHER STRONG INLAND HIGH...AND A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A PERSISTENT
NE-E FLOW OVER THE WATERS KEEPING MAX OCEAN SEAS 5+ FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2
FT ABOVE NORMAL OCCURRED WITH THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN JAMAICA
BAY AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...WHICH NECESSITATED
ISSUANCE OF A SHORT FUSED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. DEPARTURES OF UP
TO 1 FT ELSEWHERE BROUGHT WATER LEVELS AT THE BATTERY TO WITHIN A
HAIR OF MINOR FLOODING CRITERIA.

NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY FOR THE NASSAU SOUTH
SHORE BACK BAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 192317
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
717 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
TOMORROW WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO OPEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL WHICH
WILL MODIFY THE AIR MASS OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH THE LOW AND MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.  HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL DECOUPLE WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF FROST IN THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY. MIN TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE ARE LIKELY AGAIN IN WARREN AND WINDHAM COUNTIES. THESE
COUNTIES DID NOT HAVE A FREEZE THIS MORNING. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE
WASHINGTON COUNTY DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT SOURCE OFF LAKE GEORGE
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE U30S TO L40S. WE HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER NPW TO
COVER THE DETAILS. MOST OF THE SRN ADIRONDACK REGION HAD A FREEZE
WHICH ENDED THE GROWING SEASON THIS MORNING. NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THOUGH A LIGHT S/SE
WIND MAY OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000FT DUE TO THE RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DOWNSTREAM. AGAIN...THE MAVMOS
LOOKED A TAD TOO COOL...WE WENT WITH A BLEND WITH THE NGMMOS FOR
MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LOVELY DAY WITH A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING. H850 TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND
10-11C IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING FROM 900-850 HPA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REACH THE U60S TO L70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS AND
MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE MTNS.

SAT NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR
WILL CREEP CLOSER TO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW EVENINGS. WE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS TO THE SRN ADIRONDACKS BTWN 09Z-12Z.

SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. SOME LAKE MOISTURE MAY GET TAPPED...BUT EVEN
THOUGH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE SPOTTY QPF IN THE 0.01"-0.10"
RANGE...THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO DRY. WE DID KEEP ISOLD SHRAS IN THE
GRIDS DURING THE DAY /MAYBE IT WILL ONLY BE SPRINKLES/...BUT
OVERALL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP SPOTTY
PCPN WITH A H500 SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH. WE ARE NOT BUYING INTO THIS...WITH JUST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND A 1030+MB SFC ANTICYCLONE
RIDGES SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY. H850 TEMPS FALL TO ABOUT 5-8C
OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WOULD EXPECT NEARLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CWA
ALL WEEK. ALSO WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LENGTHENING
NIGHTS...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE ON FRIDAY...BUT THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO SEE IF AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SPREADS SOME
SHOWERS NORTHWARD AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL JUST KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE FRI/FRI NIGHT PERIOD
WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER PERSISTING
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SOME RADIATION FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN FOR A
TIME AT KGFL OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS COMMENCING SOMETIME
AROUND 07Z...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 11Z-12Z. AIR MASS IS DRY SO NO FOG
EXPECTED AT KALB...WHILE KPOU MAY EXPERIENCE JUST SOME PATCHY BR AND
MVFR VSBY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 5 TO 7 KT BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NITE-SUN...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KGFL. SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.
MON-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVERING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION IN MANY AREAS...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE DRY SPELL WILL
CONTINUE TO POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ042-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ014-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...15/11
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 192159
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
559 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA DOWN THE
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MAY GRAZE THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING STRATOCU IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO AREA SHOULD THIN OUT
THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. MAV HAS DONE WELL ON GOOD RADIATING
NIGHTS OF LATE AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH...SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN NYC AND ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS
OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERNMOST VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...STRATOCU
STREAMERS OFFSHORE MAY DRIFT INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE. ALSO MENTIONED SOME
PATCHY LATE NIGHT GROUND FOG FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
TEMPS LOWER TO NEAR DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN WAVES OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO HAVE
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH FROPA...ALSO POST-FROPA FOR LONG
ISLAND AND CT WHERE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE MARITIME IN
NATURE.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH LOWER 80S FOR MANY
AREAS EXCEPT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN LI/CT...THEN COOL
DOWN TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL AFTER FROPA ON MON...WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERSISTENT NE-E CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE AREA.
THERE CONTINUES TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW CLOSE A LOW OFF THE
SE COAST WILL APPROACH IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SURFACE LOW...HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THIS MOISTURE FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON THE
VISIBLE...AND WITH ELY FLOW TODAY EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. SFC WINDS LOOK TO LIMIT FG POTENTIAL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR KSWF WITH DRAINAGE INTO THE VALLEY. FCST AFT 9Z IS
MVFR ALL LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD SCT SAT AFTN...HOWEVER IF STRATUS
DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THIS COULD TAKE LONGER THAN THE
MODELS PROG.

FOR WINDS...MOST AREAS MIXING BY NOW. WINDS AT KOKX VWP 070...SO
KEPT TAFS CLOSER TO THE NRN GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HI PRES OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
WEAK CDFNT SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME. ATTM FRONT LOOKS DRY WITH A
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH NELY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
HITHER HILLS STATE PARK REPORTED 6-8 FT WAVES WITH STRONG RIPS.
UPDATED SRF AND ISSUED CFW FOR HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND MODERATE RISK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...A WEAK
EASTERLY SWELL AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG NEW YORK ATLANTIC BEACHES.

OTHERWISE...WITH THE AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...A PERSISTENT NE-E FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...WITH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SAT...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO
AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. WAVEWATCH PREDICTS 5-FT SWELL INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLD FROPA ON MON...AS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANOTHER STRONG INLAND HIGH...AND A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A PERSISTENT
NE-E FLOW OVER THE WATERS KEEPING MAX OCEAN SEAS 5+ FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2
FT ABOVE NORMAL OCCURRED WITH THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN JAMAICA
BAY AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...WHICH NECESSITATED
ISSUANCE OF A SHORT FUSED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. DEPARTURES OF UP
TO 1 FT ELSEWHERE BROUGHT WATER LEVELS AT THE BATTERY TO WITHIN A
HAIR OF MINOR FLOODING CRITERIA.

NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY FOR THE NASSAU SOUTH
SHORE BACK BAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BG/MAS
HYDROLOGY...BG/MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

000
FXUS61 KOKX 192019
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
419 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA DOWN THE
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MAY GRAZE THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LINGERING STRATOCU IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO AREA SHOULD THIN OUT
THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. MAV HAS DONE WELL ON GOOD RADIATING
NIGHTS OF LATE AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH...SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN NYC AND ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS
OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERNMOST VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...STRATOCU
STREAMERS OFFSHORE MAY DRIFT INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE. ALSO MENTIONED SOME
PATCHY LATE NIGHT GROUND FOG FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
TEMPS LOWER TO NEAR DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN WAVES OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO HAVE
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH FROPA...ALSO POST-FROPA FOR LONG
ISLAND AND CT WHERE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE MARITIME IN
NATURE.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH LOWER 80S FOR MANY
AREAS EXCEPT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN LI/CT...THEN COOL
DOWN TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL AFTER FROPA ON MON...WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERSISTENT NE-E CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE AREA.
THERE CONTINUES TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW CLOSE A LOW OFF THE
SE COAST WILL APPROACH IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SURFACE LOW...HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THIS MOISTURE FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON THE
VISIBLE...AND WITH ELY FLOW TODAY EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. SFC WINDS LOOK TO LIMIT FG POTENTIAL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR KSWF WITH DRAINAGE INTO THE VALLEY. FCST AFT 9Z IS
MVFR ALL LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD SCT SAT AFTN...HOWEVER IF STRATUS
DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THIS COULD TAKE LONGER THAN THE
MODELS PROG.

FOR WINDS...MOST AREAS MIXING BY NOW. WINDS AT KOKX VWP 070...SO
KEPT TAFS CLOSER TO THE NRN GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HI PRES OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
WEAK CDFNT SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME. ATTM FRONT LOOKS DRY WITH A
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH NELY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
HITHER HILLS STATE PARK REPORTED 6-8 FT WAVES WITH STRONG RIPS.
UPDATED SRF AND ISSUED CFW FOR HIGH RISK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WITH THE AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...A PERSISTENT NE-E FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...WITH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SAT...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO
AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. WAVEWATCH PREDICTS 5-FT SWELL INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLD FROPA ON MON...AS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANOTHER STRONG INLAND HIGH...AND A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A PERSISTENT
NE-E FLOW OVER THE WATERS KEEPING MAX OCEAN SEAS 5+ FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2
FT ABOVE NORMAL OCCURRED WITH THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN JAMAICA
BAY AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...WHICH NECESSITATED
ISSUANCE OF A SHORT FUSED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. DEPARTURES OF UP
TO 1 FT ELSEWHERE BROUGHT WATER LEVELS AT THE BATTERY TO WITHIN A
HAIR OF MINOR FLOODING CRITERIA.

NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY FOR THE NASSAU SOUTH
SHORE BACK BAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE/HYDROLOGY...BG/MAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. THIS WILL GENERALLY MEAN FAIR SKIES...DRY
WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WHERE SOME CLOUDS AND SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN LAST NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WITH DEW PTS IN THE 30S WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SO EXPECT MINS BY SUNRISE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR NORTHWEST CT NORTHWARD UP THE CT RVR
VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST NH TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S...SO EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS HAVE
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT.

COULD SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS EASTERN MA WHERE THE WIND GOES CALM
AND TEMPS APPROACH THE MID 30S. LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR THIS WOULD BE
MVY/TAN/OWD AND NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE I495 CORRIDOR. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT HERE WILL BE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT OCEAN EFFECT
STRATO-CU MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN REMAIN UNCHANGED...AND
THE FACT THAT LOTS OF STRATO-CU ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ME
AND GEORGES BANK...OCCASIONALLY CLOUDINESS FOR SOUTHEAST MA SEEMS
REASONABLE. SO WILL FORECAST ONLY PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN MA
TONIGHT.

ALSO PATCHY FOG LIKELY GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AFTER A FROSTY START FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SAT MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S...EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IT WILL LIKELY FEEL EVEN WARMER GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. COULD HAVE SOME LEFTOVER STRATO-CU ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IN NE GRADIENT FLOW.

BEACH FORECAST...DESPITE WINDS DIMINISHING THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN
ROUGH WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SAT. SEAS WILL TRANSITION FROM WIND WAVES
TO SWELLS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT LEFTOVER WAVE ENERGY TO
YIELD ROUGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ACROSS EAST FACING OCEAN
EXPOSED BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. ALTHOUGH NOT AN IDEAL
BEACH DAY WITH AIR TEMPS ONLY 65-70...WATER TEMPS WILL BE JUST AS
WARM. THUS ANYONE HEADING INTO THE WATER SAT WILL ENCOUNTER ROUGH
SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEASONABLY COOL ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW MINOR WRINKLES...BUT
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE SUNDAY AS WE HEAT UP A BIT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT A SHOWER WITH THIS
FEATURE...HOWEVER THE COLUMN LOOKS A BIT DRY SO DIDN/T GO ANY HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD MEAN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR BOTH THOSE PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER...OR MOST LIKELY SPOTTY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE MAY BE A SHARP LINE BETWEEN CLOUDY SKIES AND
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH MAY BE OVER NORTHERN MASS OR SOUTHERN NH. MAXES
SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT FOR THOSE THAT SEE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.

TUE THRU FRI LOOKS FAIR WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. ANY CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...VFR WITH SCT STRATO-CU FROM 3-4KFT. OCCASIONAL BKN CIGS OF
3-4KFT POSSIBLE HYA AND ACK OVERNIGHT.  BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT BDL/BAF/MHT.

SAT...VFR...BUT BKN CIGS AT 2-3KFT POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AT
PVD/FMH/HYA/ACK.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT
BDL/BAF/MHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR SUNDAY. FROPA OCCURS DURING AFTERNOON SO SOME AREAS OF
MVFR POSSIBLE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR CLOUD DECK LIKELY
AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLEARING OCCURS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH MON AFTN OR NIGHT WITH VFR RETURNING. VFR TUE AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...
ENE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS /5-8FT/ FOR ALL THE OCEAN
WATERS. NEAR SHORE...DIMINISHING WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING
SEAS.

SAT...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS. FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS SEAS LIKELY REMAINING SOMEWHAT ROUGH WITH HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7
FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY SUBSIDING BELOW
5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFTING TO NE LATE IN THE DAY OR
NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT EARLY MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS TO
REACH SCA LEVELS MONDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008-009.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...NOCERA/EKSTER
MARINE...NOCERA/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KALY 191949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
TOMORROW WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO OPEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL WHICH
WILL MODIFY THE AIR MASS OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH THE LOW AND MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.  HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL DECOUPLE WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF FROST IN THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY. MIN TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE ARE LIKELY AGAIN IN WARREN AND WINDHAM COUNTIES. THESE
COUNTIES DID NOT HAVE A FREEZE THIS MORNING. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE
WASHINGTON COUNTY DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT SOURCE OFF LAKE GEORGE
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE U30S TO L40S. WE HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER NPW TO
COVER THE DETAILS. MOST OF THE SRN ADIRONDACK REGION HAD A FREEZE
WHICH ENDED THE GROWING SEASON THIS MORNING. NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THOUGH A LIGHT S/SE
WIND MAY OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000FT DUE TO THE RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DOWNSTREAM. AGAIN...THE MAVMOS
LOOKED A TAD TOO COOL...WE WENT WITH A BLEND WITH THE NGMMOS FOR
MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LOVELY DAY WITH A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING. H850 TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND
10-11C IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING FROM 900-850 HPA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REACH THE U60S TO L70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS AND
MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE MTNS.

SAT NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR
WILL CREEP CLOSER TO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW EVENINGS. WE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS TO THE SRN ADIRONDACKS BTWN 09Z-12Z.

SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. SOME LAKE MOISTURE MAY GET TAPPED...BUT EVEN
THOUGH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE SPOTTY QPF IN THE 0.01"-0.10"
RANGE...THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO DRY. WE DID KEEP ISOLD SHRAS IN THE
GRIDS DURING THE DAY /MAYBE IT WILL ONLY BE SPRINKLES/...BUT
OVERALL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP SPOTTY
PCPN WITH A H500 SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH. WE ARE NOT BUYING INTO THIS...WITH JUST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND A 1030+MB SFC ANTICYCLONE
RIDGES SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY. H850 TEMPS FALL TO ABOUT 5-8C
OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WOULD EXPECT NEARLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CWA
ALL WEEK. ALSO WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LENGTHENING
NIGHTS...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE ON FRIDAY...BUT THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO SEE IF AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SPREADS SOME
SHOWERS NORTHWARD AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL JUST KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE FRI/FRI NIGHT PERIOD
WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THE MID LEVELS ARE BONE DRY...WITH
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE LOW AND HIGH LEVELS TO PROVIDE A FEW
CLOUDS...NOTHING MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TONIGHT. IFR FOG
IS LIKELY AT GFL...BUT THE DEGREE OF CI COVER WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THE FOG WILL BE WORSE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT POU AFT 06Z...WITH 6SM AT ALB.
IT WILL BE VERY TRICKY AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS.

BEYOND...A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS RIGHT BACK IN...SO REMAINING VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM-SUN...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.  SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVERING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION IN MANY AREAS...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE DRY SPELL WILL
CONTINUE TO POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ042-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ014-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HELLER
FIRE WEATHER...15/11
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191941
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. THIS WILL GENERALLY MEAN FAIR SKIES...DRY
WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WHERE SOME CLOUDS AND SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ALY AND CHH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN OUR CURRENT FORECAST.

BEACH FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT AN IDEAL BEACH DAY...WE WILL HAVE HIGH
SURF ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND SO HIGH
SURF ADVSY WAS ISSUED.  OFFSHORE BUOYS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
CONTINUE TO REPORT 8-9 FT WIND WAVES. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF
AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR EACH FACING BEACHES.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SAT.
THUS THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SNE TONIGHT AND SAT
AS INVERTED TROF LURKS OFFSHORE.  GFS SHOWS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE OCEAN WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF MOCDLY SKIES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS TONIGHT.

PATCHY RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS
OF FROST AGAIN NW MA AND SW NH AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA.  DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ANOTHER FROST ADVSY NW ZONES DEPENDING ON LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING.

SAT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE NEW ENG THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
MAXES WILL REACH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...EXCEPT MID 60S EAST
COASTAL MA WHERE ELY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW MINOR WRINKLES...BUT
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE SUNDAY AS WE HEAT UP A BIT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT A SHOWER WITH THIS
FEATURE...HOWEVER THE COLUMN LOOKS A BIT DRY SO DIDN/T GO ANY HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD MEAN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR BOTH THOSE PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER...OR MOST LIKELY SPOTTY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE MAY BE A SHARP LINE BETWEEN CLOUDY SKIES AND
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH MAY BE OVER NORTHERN MASS OR SOUTHERN NH. MAXES
SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT FOR THOSE THAT SEE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.

TUE THRU FRI LOOKS FAIR WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. ANY CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AT HYA AND ACK. NE GUSTS
20-25 KT ACK AND POSSIBLY HYA...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCAL MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT BAF.
ALSO LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING HYA/ACK AFT 06Z.

SAT...VFR...BUT BKN SC POSSIBLE PVD/FMH/HYA/ACK.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR SUNDAY. FROPA OCCURS DURING AFTERNOON SO SOME AREAS OF
MVFR POSSIBLE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR CLOUD DECK LIKELY
AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLEARING OCCURS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH MON AFTN OR NIGHT WITH VFR RETURNING. VFR TUE AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT RELAXES.  SCA WILL CONTINUE
TODAY FOR OUTER WATERS...AND UNTIL 15Z FOR CAPE COD BAY/ACK SOUND.
SEAS 5-8 FT OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND ACK.

TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS BUT A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  EASTERLY SWELL 5-7 FT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS THROUGH SAT.  WE HAVE SCA CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SCA FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO SAT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFTING TO NE LATE IN THE DAY OR
NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT EARLY MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS TO
REACH SCA LEVELS MONDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008-009.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KOKX 191800
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY...
BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NYC AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
THERE THOSE AREAS HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SCT-BKN STRATOCU HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

FROM PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL ELONGATE AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A GENERAL NORTHEAST TO EVENTUALLY EAST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A COOL AND DRY DAY. THE ONSHORE
NATURE OF THE FLOW WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. SHADED A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN EVEN THE WARM MAVS AS WE WILL STILL HAVE WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S. THE MILD WATERS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN SHOULD
BE ABLE TO OFFSET WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A SHALLOWER
MIXED LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS IT
GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT AS IT HAS NO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. FOR NOW...JUST EXPECT A MODERATE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT PERIODS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

HAVE BACKED OFF THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT...REMOVING IT
FROM THE NYC METRO AREA AS WELL AS POINTS NORTH AND WEST. WILL
KEEP IT IN FOR NOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WHILE THE ON-SHORE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT...BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE A FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AS MOISTURE POOLS JUST BELOW THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY TWO TIME
PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THU NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TROUGHING OVER SE CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING. 00Z/18 ECMWF IS NOW DRIER THAN THE 12Z/17 RUN AND THE
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN EITHER COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE HAD
LIGHT QPF IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST TO KEEP
CONTINUITY SINCE IT IS SUCH A MINOR EVENT.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OFF THE SE COAST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING NE WINDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AT BIT.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OFF THE
SE COAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EC.
WHILE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THU. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW SINCE ITS DAY 8.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE NE-E FLOW MAY END UP CAUSING COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS BORDERING
WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADDRESS THIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THIS MOISTURE FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON THE
VISIBLE...AND WITH ELY FLOW TODAY EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. SFC WINDS LOOK TO LIMIT FG POTENTIAL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR KSWF WITH DRAINAGE INTO THE VALLEY. FCST AFT 9Z IS
MVFR ALL LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD SCT SAT AFTN...HOWEVER IF STRATUS
DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THIS COULD TAKE LONGER THAN THE
MODELS PROG.

FOR WINDS...MOST AREAS MIXING BY NOW. WINDS AT KOKX VWP 070...SO
KEPT TAFS CLOSER TO THE NRN GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HI PRES OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
WEAK CDFNT SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME. ATTM FRONT LOOKS DRY WITH A
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH NELY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
HITHER HILLS STATE PARK REPORTING 6-8 FT WAVES WITH STRONG RIPS.
UPDATED SRF FCST AND ISSUED CFW FOR HIGH RISK THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. NO OTHER CHANGES TO MARINE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH THE LOCAL WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS FOR A PORTION OF THE
DAY WITH NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL ENSURE CHOPPY SEAS TODAY AS THEY
BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS
AREA BAYS/SOUND AND HARBORS.

RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN RATHER ROUGH SEAS...AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS.

A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. WINDS LIGHTEN AND
SHIFT AHEAD OF THIS WEAK FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE. THEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND YET ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FCST THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2
FT ABOVE NORMAL HAVE OCCURRED IN JAMAICA BAY AND THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...WHICH NECESSITATED ISSUANCE OF A SHORT
FUSED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER DEPARTURES OF 1/2
TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL SHOULD KEEP OTHER LOCATIONS BELOW FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ075>077.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC

000
FXUS61 KOKX 191719
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
119 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY...
BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NYC AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
THERE THOSE AREAS HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SCT-BKN STRATOCU HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

FROM PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL ELONGATE AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A GENERAL NORTHEAST TO EVENTUALLY EAST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A COOL AND DRY DAY. THE ONSHORE
NATURE OF THE FLOW WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. SHADED A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN EVEN THE WARM MAVS AS WE WILL STILL HAVE WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S. THE MILD WATERS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN SHOULD
BE ABLE TO OFFSET WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A SHALLOWER
MIXED LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS IT
GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT AS IT HAS NO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. FOR NOW...JUST EXPECT A MODERATE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT PERIODS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

HAVE BACKED OFF THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT...REMOVING IT
FROM THE NYC METRO AREA AS WELL AS POINTS NORTH AND WEST. WILL
KEEP IT IN FOR NOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WHILE THE ON-SHORE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT...BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE A FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AS MOISTURE POOLS JUST BELOW THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY TWO TIME
PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THU NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TROUGHING OVER SE CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING. 00Z/18 ECMWF IS NOW DRIER THAN THE 12Z/17 RUN AND THE
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN EITHER COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE HAD
LIGHT QPF IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST TO KEEP
CONTINUITY SINCE IT IS SUCH A MINOR EVENT.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OFF THE SE COAST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING NE WINDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AT BIT.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OFF THE
SE COAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EC.
WHILE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THU. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW SINCE ITS DAY 8.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE NE-E FLOW MAY END UP CAUSING COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS BORDERING
WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADDRESS THIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THIS MOISTURE FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON THE
VISIBLE...AND WITH ELY FLOW TODAY EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. SFC WINDS LOOK TO LIMIT FG POTENTIAL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR KSWF WITH DRAINAGE INTO THE VALLEY. FCST AFT 9Z IS
MVFR ALL LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD SCT SAT AFTN...HOWEVER IF STRATUS
DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THIS COULD TAKE LONGER THAN THE
MODELS PROG.

FOR WINDS...MOST AREAS MIXING BY NOW. WINDS AT KOKX VWP 070...SO
KEPT TAFS CLOSER TO THE NRN GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HI PRES OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
WEAK CDFNT SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME. ATTM FRONT LOOKS DRY WITH A
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH NELY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH THE LOCAL WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS FOR A PORTION OF THE
DAY WITH NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL ENSURE CHOPPY SEAS TODAY AS THEY
BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS
AREA BAYS/SOUND AND HARBORS.

RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN RATHER ROUGH SEAS...AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS.

A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. WINDS LIGHTEN AND
SHIFT AHEAD OF THIS WEAK FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE. THEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND YET ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FCST THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2
FT ABOVE NORMAL HAVE OCCURRED IN JAMAICA BAY AND THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...WHICH NECESSITATED ISSUANCE OF A SHORT
FUSED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER DEPARTURES OF 1/2
TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL SHOULD KEEP OTHER LOCATIONS BELOW FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ075>077.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC

000
FXUS61 KALY 191709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 60S
ACROSS MANY VALLEY REGIONS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS E-FACING
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY THE BERKS AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. IN FACT...SKIES MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CO...AS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS JUST BENEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION POOL.

CLEAR AND COOL AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MODIFICATION WITHIN THE LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED PATCHY FROST WITHIN HWOALY PRODUCT FOR AREAS IN WHICH
GROWING SEASON CONTINUES WITHIN THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AS
WELL AS IN PORTIONS OF SE VT. PENDING NEWER MODEL DATA...PORTIONS OF
THIS REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO START AS H8
TEMPS RISE TO 11-12 C AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOUTH WINDS
UNDER 10 MPH EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH FA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH FRONT AND FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FA WITH
NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. THUS HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

BEHIND FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS FA.

HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN WAKE OF FRONT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS FA.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE CLEAR AND COOL AGAIN WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 30S FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA TO UPPER 40S FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IT WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATE THURSDAY...THERE IS JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST COULD SPREAD RAIN
OVER THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
70S...JUST A TAD WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.  THE MID LEVELS
ARE BONE DRY...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE LOW AND HIGH LEVELS
TO PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS...NOTHING MORE.  TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE
TONIGHT.  IFR FOG IS LIKELY AT GFL...BUT THE DEGREE OF CI COVER WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER THE FOG WILL BE WORSE.  THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.  HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT POU AFT 06Z...WITH 6SM
AT ALB.  IT WILL BE VERY TRICKY AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS.

BEYOND...A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS RIGHT BACK IN...SO REMAINING VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM-SUN...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.  SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION IN MANY AREAS...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES ON THE
HUDSON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL CONTINUE NEAR
NORMAL CANAL ELEVATIONS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KOKX 191556
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY...
BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NYC AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
THERE THOSE AREAS HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SCT-BKN STRATOCU HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

FROM PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL ELONGATE AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A GENERAL NORTHEAST TO EVENTUALLY EAST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A COOL AND DRY DAY. THE ONSHORE
NATURE OF THE FLOW WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. SHADED A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN EVEN THE WARM MAVS AS WE WILL STILL HAVE WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S. THE MILD WATERS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN SHOULD
BE ABLE TO OFFSET WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A SHALLOWER
MIXED LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS IT
GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT AS IT HAS NO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. FOR NOW...JUST EXPECT A MODERATE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT PERIODS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

HAVE BACKED OFF THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT...REMOVING IT
FROM THE NYC METRO AREA AS WELL AS POINTS NORTH AND WEST. WILL
KEEP IT IN FOR NOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WHILE THE ON-SHORE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT...BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE A FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AS MOISTURE POOLS JUST BELOW THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY TWO TIME
PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THU NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TROUGHING OVER SE CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING. 00Z/18 ECMWF IS NOW DRIER THAN THE 12Z/17 RUN AND THE
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN EITHER COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE HAD
LIGHT QPF IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST TO KEEP
CONTINUITY SINCE IT IS SUCH A MINOR EVENT.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OFF THE SE COAST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING NE WINDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AT BIT.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OFF THE
SE COAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EC.
WHILE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THU. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW SINCE ITS DAY 8.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE NE-E FLOW MAY END UP CAUSING COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS BORDERING
WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADDRESS THIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND MIXING
WITHIN THESE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KT...THEN VEER TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS LIGHTEN TO UNDER 10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL DOWN AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TOWARD THE AREA.

THE MOIST EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW COULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SEEN AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND
POSSIBLY KLGA AND KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH THE LOCAL WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS FOR A PORTION OF THE
DAY WITH NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL ENSURE CHOPPY SEAS TODAY AS THEY
BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS
AREA BAYS/SOUND AND HARBORS.

RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN RATHER ROUGH SEAS...AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS.

A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. WINDS LIGHTEN AND
SHIFT AHEAD OF THIS WEAK FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE. THEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND YET ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FCST THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2
FT ABOVE NORMAL HAVE OCCURRED IN JAMAICA BAY AND THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...WHICH NECESSITATED ISSUANCE OF A SHORT
FUSED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER DEPARTURES OF 1/2
TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL SHOULD KEEP OTHER LOCATIONS BELOW FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ075>077.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOODMAN

000
FXUS61 KALY 191531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1131 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 60S
ACROSS MANY VALLEY REGIONS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS E-FACING
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY THE BERKS AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. IN FACT...SKIES MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CO...AS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS JUST BENEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION POOL.

CLEAR AND COOL AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MODIFICATION WITHIN THE LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED PATCHY FROST WITHIN HWOALY PRODUCT FOR AREAS IN WHICH
GROWING SEASON CONTINUES WITHIN THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AS
WELL AS IN PORTIONS OF SE VT. PENDING NEWER MODEL DATA...PORTIONS OF
THIS REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO START AS H8
TEMPS RISE TO 11-12 C AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOUTH WINDS
UNDER 10 MPH EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH FA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH FRONT AND FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FA WITH
NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. THUS HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

BEHIND FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS FA.

HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN WAKE OF FRONT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS FA.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE CLEAR AND COOL AGAIN WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 30S FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA TO UPPER 40S FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IT WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATE THURSDAY...THERE IS JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST COULD SPREAD RAIN
OVER THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
70S...JUST A TAD WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD AND RATHER DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE REGION. WINDS DURING
THE NIGHT WERE CALM. THE VISIBILITY AT KGFL DID GO IFR FOR TWO
BRIEF PERIODS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WAS VFR. A FEW SITES IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN EASTERN
VERMONT WERE IFR THIS MORNING. THE FOG THAT DID FORM WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z...AND WINDS WILL TURN EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND SOME FOG MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE OR LESS IN A FEW SPOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION IN MANY AREAS...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES ON THE
HUDSON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL CONTINUE NEAR
NORMAL CANAL ELEVATIONS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191334
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
934 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

A COOL FALL-LIKE MORNING IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE PROVIDING COOLER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME OCEAN EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO EXPECT LESS WIND AND CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF I95 TODAY...AS
THE MARINE INFLUENCE BECOMES MODIFIED FARTHER INLAND.

12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ALY AND CHH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN OUR CURRENT FORECAST.

BEACH FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT AN IDEAL BEACH DAY...WE WILL HAVE HIGH
SURF ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND SO HIGH
SURF ADVSY WAS ISSUED.  OFFSHORE BUOYS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
CONTINUE TO REPORT 8-9 FT WIND WAVES. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF
AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR EACH FACING BEACHES.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SAT.
THUS THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SNE TONIGHT AND SAT
AS INVERTED TROF LURKS OFFSHORE.  GFS SHOWS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE OCEAN WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF MOCDLY SKIES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS TONIGHT.

PATCHY RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS
OF FROST AGAIN NW MA AND SW NH AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA.  DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ANOTHER FROST ADVSY NW ZONES DEPENDING ON LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING.

SAT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE NEW ENG THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
MAXES WILL REACH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...EXCPET MID 60S EAST
COASTAL MA WHERE ELY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE FAIRLY WARM WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. NOT
EXPECTING  TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA APPROXIMATELY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES DO
EXIST  BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN GGEM. THE
FRONT HAS SOME TEMPORARY MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT H85 BUT OVERALL
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS MORE
REMINISCENT OF MID OR LATE OCTOBER. OCEAN EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH OCEAN-H85 DELTA T
VALUES APPROACHING 15-17C. THIS WILL SOMEWHAT DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE STRENGTH OF ITS SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HAVE ADDED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. A HYBRID OR
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COAST....THEN ATTEMPTS TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE LEVEL UPPER RIDGE EXITS THE REGION. HAVE
CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY DAY 7 AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AT HYA AND ACK. NE GUSTS
20-25 KT ACK AND POSSIBLY HYA...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCAL MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT BAF.
ALSO LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING HYA/ACK AFT 06Z.

SAT...VFR...BUT BKN SC POSSIBLE PVD/FMH/HYA/ACK.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON OR AT
NIGHT WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EASTERN TERMINALS. WIND SHIFT TO N
DURING MIDDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
WITH POTENTIAL OCEAN EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINSH LATER THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT RELAXES.  SCA WILL CONTINUE
TODAY FOR OUTER WATERS...AND UNTIL 15Z FOR CAPE COD BAY/ACK SOUND.
SEAS 5-8 FT OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND ACK.

TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS BUT A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  EASTERLY SWELL 5-7 FT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS THROUGH SAT.  WE HAVE SCA CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SCA FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTEDNED
INTO SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW CRITERIA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFTING TO N TO NE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT BY EVENING. A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

MONDAY...N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SE WATERS...
DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/STRAUSS - UPDATED 934 AM
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/STRAUSS - UPDATED 934 AM
MARINE...KJC/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 191242
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
839 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR THIS
MORNING. SEE PNSALY OR SPSALY FOR DETAILS ON WHICH AREAS HAVE
OFFICIALLY ENDED THE GROWING SEASON.

TODAY LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN BE SUNNY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN
THURSDAY AND SIMILAR TEMPS AS WAA ALOFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF TODAY EXCEPT IN MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE TEMPS LOOK TO BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LESS TONIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF FA AND AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE TEMPS 36 OR BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS GROWING SEASON IN
MUCH OF THIS AREA MAY BE OVER PENDING AN EVALUATION LATER THIS
MORNING. READINGS AS OF 4 AM IN THESE AREAS WERE FROM 28 TO 36
DEGREES WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO GO BEFORE MIN TEMPS
ARE REACHED THIS MORNING. WILL THUS DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES. WILL AT THIS POINT JUST INCLUDE MENTION OF AREAS OF
FROST IN HWO IN ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO START AS H8
TEMPS RISE TO 11-12 C AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOUTH WINDS
UNDER 10 MPH EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH FA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH FRONT AND FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FA WITH
NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. THUS HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

BEHIND FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS FA.

HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN WAKE OF FRONT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS FA.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE CLEAR AND COOL AGAIN WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 30S FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA TO UPPER 40S FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IT WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATE THURSDAY...THERE IS JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST COULD SPREAD RAIN
OVER THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
70S...JUST A TAD WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD AND RATHER DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE REGION. WINDS DURING
THE NIGHT WERE CALM. THE VISIBILITY AT KGFL DID GO IFR FOR TWO
BRIEF PERIODS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WAS VFR. A FEW SITES IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN EASTERN
VERMONT WERE IFR THIS MORNING. THE FOG THAT DID FORM WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z...AND WINDS WILL TURN EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND SOME FOG MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE OR LESS IN A FEW SPOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION IN MANY AREAS...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES ON THE
HUDSON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL CONTINUE NEAR
NORMAL CANAL ELEVATIONS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191129 CCA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADD SOME CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AS OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SOUTHWESTWARD.
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. FROST ADVSY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8AM. SST-850 MB
TEMP DIFFERENTIAL CONTRIBUTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW OCEAN
EFFECT CLOUDS SE NEW ENG.

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF NEW ENG BUT RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND ACROSS SNE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MOSUNNY AND COOL
CONDITIONS TODAY.  CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SE NEW ENG WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN
SC...ESPECIALLY TO CAPE AND ISLANDS.  IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
MAXES MAINLY 60-65...COOLEST TEMPS E COASTAL MA AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND ORH WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR 60.

GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

BEACH FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT AN IDEAL BEACH DAY...WE WILL HAVE HIGH
SURF ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND SO HIGH
SURF ADVSY WAS ISSUED.  OFFSHORE BUOYS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
REPORTING 8-9 FT WIND WAVES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR EACH FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SNE TONIGHT AND SAT
AS INVERTED TROF LURKS OFFSHORE.  GFS SHOWS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE OCEAN WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF MOCDLY SKIES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS TONIGHT.

PATCHY RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS
OF FROST AGAIN NW MA AND SW NH AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA.  DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ANOTHER FROST ADVSY NW ZONES DEPENDING ON LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING.

SAT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE NEW ENG THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
MAXES WILL REACH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...EXCPET MID 60S EAST
COASTAL MA WHERE ELY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE FAIRLY WARM WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. NOT
EXPECTING  TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA APPROXIMATELY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES DO
EXIST  BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN GGEM. THE
FRONT HAS SOME TEMPORARY MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT H85 BUT OVERALL
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS MORE
REMINISCENT OF MID OR LATE OCTOBER. OCEAN EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH OCEAN-H85 DELTA T
VALUES APPROACHING 15-17C. THIS WILL SOMEWHAT DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE STRENGTH OF ITS SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HAVE ADDED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. A HYBRID OR
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COAST....THEN ATTEMPTS TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE LEVEL UPPER RIDGE EXITS THE REGION. HAVE
CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY DAY 7 AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR WITH BKN SC POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW
RISK OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 025-030 ACK AND HYA.  NE GUSTS 20-25 KT ACK
AND POSSIBLY HYA...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCAL MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT BAF.
ALSO LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING HYA/ACK AFT 06Z.

SAT...VFR...BUT BKN SC POSSIBLE PVD/FMH/HYA/ACK.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON OR AT
NIGHT WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EASTERN TERMINALS. WIND SHIFT TO N
DURING MIDDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
WITH POTENTIAL OCEAN EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINSH LATER THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT RELAXES.  SCA WILL CONTINUE
TODAY FOR OUTER WATERS...AND UNTIL 15Z FOR CAPE COD BAY/ACK SOUND.
SEAS 5-8 FT OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND ACK.

TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS BUT A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  EASTERLY SWELL 5-7 FT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS THROUGH SAT.  WE HAVE SCA CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SCA FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTEDNED
INTO SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW CRITERIA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFTING TO N TO NE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT BY EVENING. A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

MONDAY...N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SE WATERS...
DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008-
     009-026.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...KJC/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...KJC/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 191129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
729 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY...
BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ELONGATE
AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A
GENERAL NORTHEAST TO EVENTUALLY EAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT A COOL AND DRY DAY. THE ONSHORE NATURE OF
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. SHADED A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
EVEN THE WARM MAVS AS WE WILL STILL HAVE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE MILD WATERS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN SHOULD BE ABLE
TO OFFSET WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS IT
GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT AS IT HAS NO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. FOR NOW...JUST EXPECT A MODERATE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT PERIODS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

HAVE BACKED OFF THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT...REMOVING IT
FROM THE NYC METRO AREA AS WELL AS POINTS NORTH AND WEST. WILL
KEEP IT IN FOR NOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WHILE THE ON-SHORE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT...BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE A FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AS MOISTURE POOLS JUST BELOW THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY TWO TIME
PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THU NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TROUGHING OVER SE CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING. 00Z/18 ECMWF IS NOW DRIER THAN THE 12Z/17 RUN AND THE
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN EITHER COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE HAD
LIGHT QPF IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST TO KEEP
CONTINUITY SINCE IT IS SUCH A MINOR EVENT.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OFF THE SE COAST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING NE WINDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AT BIT.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OFF THE
SE COAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EC.
WHILE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THU. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
SINCE ITS DAY 8.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE NE-E FLOW MAY END UP CAUSING COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS BORDERING
WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADDRESS THIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND MIXING
WITHIN THESE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KTS...THEN VEER TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS LIGHTEN TO UNDER 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL DOWN AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
TOWARD THE AREA.

THE MOIST EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW COULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SEEN AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND
POSSIBLY KLGA AND KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH THE LOCAL WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS FOR A PORTION OF THE
DAY WITH NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL ENSURE CHOPPY SEAS TODAY AS THEY
BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS
AREA BAYS/SOUND AND HARBORS.

RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN RATHER ROUGH SEAS...AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS.

A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. WINDS LIGHTEN AND
SHIFT AHEAD OF THIS WEAK FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE. THEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND YET ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FCST THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1/2 TO
POSSIBLY 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LOCALLY. THE 00Z NGM GUIDANCE INITIALIZED TOO
HIGH AND WILL BE DISREGARDED. 00Z GFS MUCH CLOSER TO OBSERVED...AND
ONLY FORECASTS DEPARTURES OF 1/2 FT ABOVE. SO ADDING A BIT ON TOP OF
THOSE NUMBERS WILL BRING SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THEIR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TODAY. BUT FEEL IT WILL BE ISOLATED AND
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
U[DATED TO ADD SOME CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AS OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SOUTHWESTWARD.
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. FROST ADVSY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8AM. SST-850 MB
TEMP DIFFERENTIAL CONTRIBUTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW OCEAN
EFFECT CLOUDS SE NEW ENG.

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF NEW ENG BUT RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND ACROSS SNE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MOSUNNY AND COOL
CONDITIONS TODAY.  CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SE NEW ENG WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN
SC...ESPECIALLY TO CAPE AND ISLANDS.  IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
MAXES MAINLY 60-65...COOLEST TEMPS E COASTAL MA AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND ORH WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR 60.

GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

BEACH FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT AN IDEAL BEACH DAY...WE WILL HAVE HIGH
SURF ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND SO HIGH
SURF ADVSY WAS ISSUED.  OFFSHORE BUOYS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
REPORTING 8-9 FT WIND WAVES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR EACH FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SNE TONIGHT AND SAT
AS INVERTED TROF LURKS OFFSHORE.  GFS SHOWS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE OCEAN WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF MOCDLY SKIES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS TONIGHT.

PATCHY RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS
OF FROST AGAIN NW MA AND SW NH AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA.  DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ANOTHER FROST ADVSY NW ZONES DEPENDING ON LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING.

SAT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE NEW ENG THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
MAXES WILL REACH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...EXCPET MID 60S EAST
COASTAL MA WHERE ELY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE FAIRLY WARM WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. NOT
EXPECTING  TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA APPROXIMATELY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES DO
EXIST  BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN GGEM. THE
FRONT HAS SOME TEMPORARY MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT H85 BUT OVERALL
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS MORE
REMINISCENT OF MID OR LATE OCTOBER. OCEAN EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH OCEAN-H85 DELTA T
VALUES APPROACHING 15-17C. THIS WILL SOMEWHAT DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE STRENGTH OF ITS SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HAVE ADDED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. A HYBRID OR
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COAST....THEN ATTEMPTS TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE LEVEL UPPER RIDGE EXITS THE REGION. HAVE
CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY DAY 7 AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR WITH BKN SC POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW
RISK OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 025-030 ACK AND HYA.  NE GUSTS 20-25 KT ACK
AND POSSIBLY HYA...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCAL MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT BAF.
ALSO LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING HYA/ACK AFT 06Z.

SAT...VFR...BUT BKN SC POSSIBLE PVD/FMH/HYA/ACK.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON OR AT
NIGHT WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EASTERN TERMINALS. WIND SHIFT TO N
DURING MIDDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
WITH POTENTIAL OCEAN EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINSH LATER THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT RELAXES.  SCA WILL CONTINUE
TODAY FOR OUTER WATERS...AND UNTIL 15Z FOR CAPE COD BAY/ACK SOUND.
SEAS 5-8 FT OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND ACK.

TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS BUT A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  EASTERLY SWELL 5-7 FT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS THROUGH SAT.  WE HAVE SCA CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SCA FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTEDNED
INTO SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW CRITERIA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFTING TO N TO NE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT BY EVENING. A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

MONDAY...N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SE WATERS...
DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008-
     009-026.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...KJC/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...KJC/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 191058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN BE SUNNY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN
THURSDAY AND SIMILAR TEMPS AS WAA ALOFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF TODAY EXCEPT IN MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE TEMPS LOOK TO BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LESS TONIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF FA AND AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE TEMPS 36 OR BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS GROWING SEASON IN
MUCH OF THIS AREA MAY BE OVER PENDING AN EVALUATION LATER THIS
MORNING. READINGS AS OF 4 AM IN THESE AREAS WERE FROM 28 TO 36
DEGREES WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO GO BEFORE MIN TEMPS
ARE REACHED THIS MORNING. WILL THUS DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES. WILL AT THIS POINT JUST INCLUDE MENTION OF AREAS OF
FROST IN HWO IN ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO START AS H8
TEMPS RISE TO 11-12 C AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOUTH WINDS
UNDER 10 MPH EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH FA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH FRONT AND FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FA WITH
NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. THUS HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

BEHIND FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS FA.

HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN WAKE OF FRONT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS FA.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE CLEAR AND COOL AGAIN WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 30S FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA TO UPPER 40S FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IT WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATE THURSDAY...THERE IS JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST COULD SPREAD RAIN
OVER THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
70S...JUST A TAD WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD AND RATHER DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE REGION. WINDS DURING
THE NIGHT WERE CALM. THE VISIBILITY AT KGFL DID GO IFR FOR TWO
BRIEF PERIODS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WAS VFR. A FEW SITES IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN EASTERN
VERMONT WERE IFR THIS MORNING. THE FOG THAT DID FORM WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z...AND WINDS WILL TURN EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND SOME FOG MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE OR LESS IN A FEW SPOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION IN MANY AREAS...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES ON THE
HUDSON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL CONTINUE NEAR
NORMAL CANAL ELEVATIONS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>040-047-
     048-050-051-053-058-061-063.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     041>043-054-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 190858
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
458 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN BE SUNNY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN
THURSDAY AND SIMILAR TEMPS AS WAA ALOFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF TODAY EXCEPT IN MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE TEMPS LOOK TO BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LESS TONIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF FA AND AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE TEMPS 36 OR BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS GROWING SEASON IN
MUCH OF THIS AREA MAY BE OVER PENDING AN EVALUATION LATER THIS
MORNING. READINGS AS OF 4 AM IN THESE AREAS WERE FROM 28 TO 36
DEGREES WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO GO BEFORE MIN TEMPS
ARE REACHED THIS MORNING. WILL THUS DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES. WILL AT THIS POINT JUST INCLUDE MENTION OF AREAS OF
FROST IN HWO IN ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO START AS H8
TEMPS RISE TO 11-12 C AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOUTH WINDS
UNDER 10 MPH EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH FA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH FRONT AND FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FA WITH
NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. THUS HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

BEHIND FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS FA.

HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN WAKE OF FRONT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS FA.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE CLEAR AND COOL AGAIN WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 30S FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA TO UPPER 40S FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IT WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATE THURSDAY...THERE IS JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST COULD SPREAD RAIN
OVER THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
70S...JUST A TAD WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD AND RATHER DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE GONE
CALM OR NEARLY SO AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
DAYBREAK. THERE WAS A FAIRLY GOOD SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS AT MOST OBSERVING SITES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS...ONE OF THEM BEING KPOU WHERE THEY WERE ONLY A DEGREE
APART...AND KDDH AND KSLK WHERE THEY WERE TWO DEGREES APART. WE
PUSHED BACK THE TIME THAT KGFL IS EXPECTED TO GO MVFR AND WENT TO
A TEMPO FOR IFR SINCE WE CAN/T RULE IT OUT.  ON THE OTHER HAND WE
HAVE HAD TO ADD BOTH MVFR AND IFR FOR KPOU AS THE FCST AND OBSERVED
TEMPS ARE TRACKING VERY CLOSE AND THE OBSERVED DEWPT IS SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN FCST. THERE IS A GOOD SPREAD AT KALB IN SPITE
OF A LIGHT NORTH WIND WHICH CAN BRING FOG OFF THE RIVER JUST TO
THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE 10 DEGREE
TEMP DIFFERENCE. ANY RADIATION FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z...AND WINDS WILL TURN EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND SOME FOG MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
HALF MILE OR LESS IN A FEW SPOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION IN MANY AREAS...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES ON THE
HUDSON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL CONTINUE NEAR
NORMAL CANAL ELEVATIONS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>040-047-
     048-050-051-053-058-061-063.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     041>043-054-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190832
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S NW MA AND
SW NH AND EXPECT AREAS OF FROST AS READINGS DROP DURTHER INTO LOW TO
MID 30S.  FROST ADVSY WILL CONTINUE.  SST-850 MB TEMP DIFFERENTIAL
CONTRIBUTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW OCEAN EFEFCT CLOUDS SE NEW
ENG.

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF NEW ENG BUT RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND ACROSS SNE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MOSUNNY AND COOL
CONDITIONS TODAY.  CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SE NEW ENG WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN
SC...ESPECIALLY TO CAPE AND ISLANDS.  IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
MAXES MAINLY 60-65...COOLEST TEMPS E COASTAL MA AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND ORH WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR 60.

GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

BEACH FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT AN IDEAL BEACH DAY...WE WILL HAVE HIGH
SURF ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND SO HIGH
SURF ADVSY WAS ISSUED.  OFFSHORE BUOYS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
REPORTING 8-9 FT WIND WAVES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR EACH FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SNE TONIGHT AND SAT
AS INVERTED TROF LURKS OFFSHORE.  GFS SHOWS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE OCEAN WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF MOCDLY SKIES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS TONIGHT.

PATCHY RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS
OF FROST AGAIN NW MA AND SW NH AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA.  DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ANOTHER FROST ADVSY NW ZONES DEPENDING ON LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING.

SAT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE NEW ENG THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
MAXES WILL REACH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...EXCPET MID 60S EAST
COASTAL MA WHERE ELY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE FAIRLY WARM WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. NOT
EXPECTING  TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA APPROXIMATELY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES DO
EXIST  BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN GGEM. THE
FRONT HAS SOME TEMPORARY MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT H85 BUT OVERALL
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS MORE
REMINISCENT OF MID OR LATE OCTOBER. OCEAN EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH OCEAN-H85 DELTA T
VALUES APPROACHING 15-17C. THIS WILL SOMEWHAT DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE STRENGTH OF ITS SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HAVE ADDED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. A HYBRID OR
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COAST....THEN ATTEMPTS TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE LEVEL UPPER RIDGE EXITS THE REGION. HAVE
CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY DAY 7 AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR WITH BKN SC POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW
RISK OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 025-030 ACK AND HYA.  NE GUSTS 20-25 KT ACK
AND POSSIBLY HYA...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCAL MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT BAF.
ALSO LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING HYA/ACK AFT 06Z.

SAT...VFR...BUT BKN SC POSSIBLE PVD/FMH/HYA/ACK.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON OR AT
NIGHT WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EASTERN TERMINALS. WIND SHIFT TO N
DURING MIDDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
WITH POTENTIAL OCEAN EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINSH LATER THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT RELAXES.  SCA WILL CONTINUE
TODAY FOR OUTER WATERS...AND UNTIL 15Z FOR CAPE COD BAY/ACK SOUND.
SEAS 5-8 FT OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND ACK.

TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS BUT A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  EASTERLY SWELL 5-7 FT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS THROUGH SAT.  WE HAVE SCA CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SCA FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTEDNED
INTO SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW CRITERIA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFTING TO N TO NE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT BY EVENING. A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

MONDAY...N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SE WATERS...
DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008-
     009-026.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...KJC/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING COOL AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S NW MA AND
SW NH AND EXPECT AREAS OF FROST AS READINGS DROP DURTHER INTO LOW TO
MID 30S.  FROST ADVSY WILL CONTINUE.  SST-850 MB TEMP DIFFERENTIAL
CONTRIBUTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW OCEAN EFEFCT CLOUDS SE NEW
ENG.

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF NEW ENG BUT RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND ACROSS SNE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MOSUNNY AND COOL
CONDITIONS TODAY.  CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SE NEW ENG WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN
SC...ESPECIALLY TO CAPE AND ISLANDS.  IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
MAXES MAINLY 60-65...COOLEST TEMPS E COASTAL MA AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND ORH WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR 60.

GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

BEACH FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT AN IDEAL BEACH DAY...WE WILL HAVE HIGH
SURF ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND SO HIGH
SURF ADVSY WAS ISSUED.  OFFSHORE BUOYS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
REPORTING 8-9 FT WIND WAVES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR EACH FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SNE TONIGHT AND SAT
AS INVERTED TROF LURKS OFFSHORE.  GFS SHOWS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE OCEAN WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF MOCDLY SKIES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS TONIGHT.

PATCHY RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS
OF FROST AGAIN NW MA AND SW NH AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA.  DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ANOTHER FROST ADVSY NW ZONES DEPENDING ON LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING.

SAT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE NEW ENG THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
MAXES WILL REACH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...EXCPET MID 60S EAST
COASTAL MA WHERE ELY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AS LEAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LONG TERM WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY FEATURE TO
SPEAK OF CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT OF CANADA...WHICH
STILL COMES THROUGH DRY LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN WITH
APPROACHING FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS COASTAL MA/RI WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL PUSH E
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT HEADS S AND WINDS SHIFT. SOME CLOUDS HEAD
INTO S NH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S-LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS...BUT MODELS STILL SHOW A DRY
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE IF ANY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE. WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 70S. WINDS SHIFT TO N SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SETTLES S
OF NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING IN A 1036 HPA HIGH OUT OF
QUEBEC...NOSING IT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A COOLER NE FLOW BUT DRY CONDITIONS.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK IN DURING MONDAY...SO EXPECT
EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OVER S NH MAY NOT BREAK 60 ON MONDAY. SOME PATCHY
FROST STILL POSSIBLE OVER N CENTRAL MA/S NH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY...MAY START TO
SEE SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE CLOSE TO IF NOT OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ENSURE LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG RANGE MODELS STARTING TO SHOW INVERTED TROUGH OR POSSIBLY SOME
TYPE OF HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC AND RIDE INTO THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED BRANCH AT HPC NOTING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE MODELS TO SUPPORT THIS
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MJO WESTERLY PHASE LATE
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR CONSISTENCY ON FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR WITH BKN SC POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW
RISK OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 025-030 ACK AND HYA.  NE GUSTS 20-25 KT ACK
AND POSSIBLY HYA...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCAL MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT BAF.
ALSO LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING HYA/ACK AFT 06Z.

SAT...VFR...BUT BKN SC POSSIBLE PVD/FMH/HYA/ACK.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR.  LOCAL MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS. MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLAND SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINSH LATER THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT RELAXES.  SCA WILL CONTINUE
TODAY FOR OUTER WATERS...AND UNTIL 15Z FOR CAPE COD BAY/ACK SOUND.
SEAS 5-8 FT OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND ACK.

TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS BUT A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  EASTERLY SWELL 5-7 FT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS THROUGH SAT.  WE HAVE SCA CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SCA FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTEDNED
INTO SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WITH
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SEAS MAY STILL CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY...AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS...LIGHT W-SW WINDS SHIFT TO
N LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE AND INCREASE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BUILD
UP TO 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT NE WINDS TO CONTINUE.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS MAY REACH 7 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
DURING TUESDAY.

MAY START TO SEE INCREASING E-SE SWELLS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OR STRONG LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG HIGH COMBINED WITH
THIS POSSIBLE LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE...BUT STILL QUITE
A BIT OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008-
     009-026.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING COOL AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S NW MA AND
SW NH AND EXPECT AREAS OF FROST AS READINGS DROP DURTHER INTO LOW TO
MID 30S.  FROST ADVSY WILL CONTINUE.  SST-850 MB TEMP DIFFERENTIAL
CONTRIBUTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW OCEAN EFEFCT CLOUDS SE NEW
ENG.

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF NEW ENG BUT RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND ACROSS SNE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MOSUNNY AND COOL
CONDITIONS TODAY.  CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SE NEW ENG WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN
SC...ESPECIALLY TO CAPE AND ISLANDS.  IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
MAXES MAINLY 60-65...COOLEST TEMPS E COASTAL MA AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND ORH WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR 60.

GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SNE TONIGHT AND SAT
AS INVERTED TROF LURKS OFFSHORE.  GFS SHOWS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE OCEAN WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF MOCDLY SKIES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS TONIGHT.

PATCHY RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS
OF FROST AGAIN NW MA AND SW NH AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA.  DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ANOTHER FROST ADVSY NW ZONES DEPENDING ON LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING.

SAT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE NEW ENG THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
MAXES WILL REACH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...EXCPET MID 60S EAST
COASTAL MA WHERE ELY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AS LEAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LONG TERM WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY FEATURE TO
SPEAK OF CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT OF CANADA...WHICH
STILL COMES THROUGH DRY LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN WITH
APPROACHING FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS COASTAL MA/RI WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL PUSH E
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT HEADS S AND WINDS SHIFT. SOME CLOUDS HEAD
INTO S NH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S-LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS...BUT MODELS STILL SHOW A DRY
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE IF ANY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE. WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 70S. WINDS SHIFT TO N SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SETTLES S
OF NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING IN A 1036 HPA HIGH OUT OF
QUEBEC...NOSING IT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A COOLER NE FLOW BUT DRY CONDITIONS.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK IN DURING MONDAY...SO EXPECT
EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OVER S NH MAY NOT BREAK 60 ON MONDAY. SOME PATCHY
FROST STILL POSSIBLE OVER N CENTRAL MA/S NH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY...MAY START TO
SEE SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE CLOSE TO IF NOT OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ENSURE LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG RANGE MODELS STARTING TO SHOW INVERTED TROUGH OR POSSIBLY SOME
TYPE OF HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC AND RIDE INTO THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED BRANCH AT HPC NOTING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE MODELS TO SUPPORT THIS
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MJO WESTERLY PHASE LATE
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR CONSISTENCY ON FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR WITH BKN SC POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW
RISK OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 025-030 ACK AND HYA.  NE GUSTS 20-25 KT ACK
AND POSSIBLY HYA...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCAL MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT BAF.
ALSO LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING HYA/ACK AFT 06Z.

SAT...VFR...BUT BKN SC POSSIBLE PVD/FMH/HYA/ACK.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR.  LOCAL MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS. MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLAND SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINSH LATER THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT RELAXES.  SCA WILL CONTINUE
TODAY FOR OUTER WATERS...AND UNTIL 15Z FOR CAPE COD BAY/ACK SOUND.
SEAS 5-8 FT OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND ACK.

TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS BUT A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  EASTERLY SWELL 5-7 FT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS THROUGH SAT.  WE HAVE SCA CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SCA FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTEDNED
INTO SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WITH
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SEAS MAY STILL CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY...AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS...LIGHT W-SW WINDS SHIFT TO
N LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE AND INCREASE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BUILD
UP TO 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT NE WINDS TO CONTINUE.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS MAY REACH 7 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
DURING TUESDAY.

MAY START TO SEE INCREASING E-SE SWELLS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OR STRONG LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG HIGH COMBINED WITH
THIS POSSIBLE LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE...BUT STILL QUITE
A BIT OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008-
     009-026.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
334 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY...
BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ELONGATE
AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A
GENERAL NORTHEAST TO EVENTUALLY EAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT A COOL AND DRY DAY. THE ONSHORE NATURE OF
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. SHADED A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
EVEN THE WARM MAVS AS WE WILL STILL HAVE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE MILD WATERS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN SHOULD BE ABLE
TO OFFSET WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS IT
GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT AS IT HAS NO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. FOR NOW...JUST EXPECT A MODERATE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT PERIODS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

HAVE BACKED OFF THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT...REMOVING IT
FROM THE NYC METRO AREA AS WELL AS POINTS NORTH AND WEST. WILL
KEEP IT IN FOR NOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WHILE THE ON-SHORE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT...BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE A FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AS MOISTURE POOLS JUST BELOW THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY TWO TIME
PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THU NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TROUGHING OVER SE CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING. 00Z/18 ECMWF IS NOW DRIER THAN THE 12Z/17 RUN AND THE
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN EITHER COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE HAD
LIGHT QPF IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST TO KEEP
CONTINUITY SINCE IT IS SUCH A MINOR EVENT.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OFF THE SE COAST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING NE WINDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AT BIT.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OFF THE
SE COAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EC.
WHILE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THU. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
SINCE ITS DAY 8.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE NE-E FLOW MAY END UP CAUSING COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS BORDERING
WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADDRESS THIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED. CLEAR SKIES GIVE
WAY TO FEW TO SCATTERED STRATO-CU DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEN AS SFC HEATING COMMENCES AFTER SUNRISE...MIXING WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WINDS VEER TO
THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHTEN TO
UNDER 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR...THOUGH PATCHY FOG OR SOME STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY IN E FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH THE LOCAL WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS FOR A PORTION OF THE
DAY WITH NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL ENSURE CHOPPY SEAS TODAY AS THEY
BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS
AREA BAYS/SOUND AND HARBORS.

RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN RATHER ROUGH SEAS...AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS.

A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. WINDS LIGHTEN AND
SHIFT AHEAD OF THIS WEAK FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE. THEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND YET ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FCST THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1/2 TO
POSSIBLY 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LOCALLY. THE 00Z NGM GUIDANCE INITIALIZED TOO
HIGH AND WILL BE DISREGARDED. 00Z GFS MUCH CLOSER TO OBSERVED...AND
ONLY FORECASTS DEPARTURES OF 1/2 FT ABOVE. SO ADDING A BIT ON TOP OF
THOSE NUMBERS WILL BRING SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THEIR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TODAY. BUT FEEL IT WILL BE ISOLATED AND
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
133 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOL AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG
ISLAND...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES IN THE PINE BARRENS ABOVE
EXPECTED LEVELS...BUT ITS IMPACTS ARE NOW GONE...WITH FOK FINALLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S. 18Z MAV NUMBERS MOVED TOWARDS COOLER 12Z MET
NUMBERS SO UPDATED TEMPERATURES WITH 18Z MAV/12Z MET BLEND. WINDS
DIMINISHING INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ SO UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE THERE...BUT JUST A TAD TOO MUCH WIND FOR FROST. MOST
OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND THE PINE BARRENS WILL RUN
40-45...COASTAL CT AND EASTERN NE NJ ZONES PLUS AREAS OF SUFFOLK
COUNTY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOT IN THE PINE BARRENS SHOULD RUN
45-50 AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD RUN 50 TO 55 FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LONG ISLAND FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...HENCE PREVENTING THE PINE BARRENS FROM GETTING AS COLD
AS THE OTHERWISE WOULD IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRIFTING FURTHER OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT. THE BASE OF THE
HIGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE FRI THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EASTERLY
FLOW. THE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES THROUGH LATE SUN...BUT THIS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FRONT.

HIGHS FRI WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SAT...THEN MID TO UPPER 70S ON
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY TWO TIME
PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THU NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TROUGHING OVER SE CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING. 00Z/18 ECMWF IS NOW DRIER THAN THE 12Z/17 RUN AND THE
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN EITHER COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE HAD
LIGHT QPF IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST TO KEEP
CONTINUITY SINCE IT IS SUCH A MINOR EVENT.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OFF THE SE COAST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING NE WINDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AT BIT.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OFF THE
SE COAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EC.
WHILE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THU. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
SINCE ITS DAY 8.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE NE-E FLOW MAY END UP CAUSING COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS BORDERING
WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADDRESS THIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED. CLEAR SKIES GIVE
WAY TO FEW TO SCATTERED STRATO-CU DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEN AS SFC HEATING COMMENCES AFTER SUNRISE...MIXING WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WINDS VEER TO
THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHTEN TO
UNDER 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR...THOUGH PATCHY FOG OR SOME STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY IN E FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. A TIGHT NE GRADIENT WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND AND PECONIC
BAY...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BY MIDDAY FRI...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH SUN DUE TO THE EASTERLY FETCH.

THIS MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CAUSE LONG SHORE CURRENTS TO DEVELOP
ALONG ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES ON FRI. THEREFORE...THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT THIS EVENING...AND LET THE MID SHIFT PUT IT UP IF
DEEMED NECESSARY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINDS LIGHTEN TO NEARLY L/V AS THE HIGH NEARS ON SAT. WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
AND A MODERATE NE-E FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND A WEAK
EASTERLY SWELL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON
MON. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KT ON THE OCEAN AS
WELL. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FCST THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES BE ABOUT 1
FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON FRI. THIS MAY RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE 12Z
NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH...WITH DEPARTURES OVER 1.5 FT ACROSS
NYC...BUT SEEMS TO BRING THE DEPARTURES DOWN TOO SOON. THE TREND
FOR THE 12Z GFS IS BETTER...BUT SEEMS ABOUT 1/2 FT TOO LOW. WILL
SPLIT THE THE DIFFERENCE AND GO WITH THE GFS TREND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL...DURING MIDDAY
FRI.

CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR
WARNING...BUT MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PFM
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS/PFM
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

000
FXUS61 KALY 190525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
0125 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA.  A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SATELLITE PICTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY
CUMULUS OVER FCST AREA /OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE WAKE OF
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
THE FRONTAL INVERSION ABOVE A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER ONE.
THE H500 FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE W/NW THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM SWRN QUEBEC. THE N/NW
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECT...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM AIR. THE AIR MASS IS CHILLY FOR MID-SEPT WITH DEWPOINTS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND S-CNTRL QUEBEC IN THE 20S AND L30S. WE
ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACK
REGION...LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...ERN RENSSELAER
CO...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING. WE
ARE EXPECTING AREAS OF FROST JUST OUTSIDE THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT /EXCLUDING ERN SCH
AND ALB COS/ WITH MIN TEMPS 33-36F. OVERALL...TEMPS OUTSIDE THE
FROST/FREEZE AREAS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.  WE DID A BLEND OF
THE NGM/MAV MOS TEMPS WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE MAVMOS TEMPS WERE MUCH COLDER THAN THE ETA/NGM VALUES.
IT HAS SHOWN A COLD BIAS IN THESE SITUATIONS...WITH ACTUALLY THE
NGM DOING THE BEST. WE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRIOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. PLEASE SEE THE NPW FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE GORGEOUS WEATHER AGAIN WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY AT 5-6C...H925 TEMPS AROUND 10C...SO HIGHS IN THE MID TO
U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS ARE
LIKELY.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR. THE FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LOWER...ASIDE FROM THE NRN TIER WHERE SCT-
AREAS OF FROST MAY OCCUR AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE GROWING SEASON MAY
END THERE TONIGHT...SO WE ARE NOT GOING TO MENTION FROST IN THE
ZFP/HWO AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE LOVELY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
THERE MAYBE A FEW CIRRUS AROUND...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. H850 TEMPS RISE TO 10-11C. EXPECT L70S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOL AIR APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MOISTURE STARVED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE. THE GFS/NAM KEEP ANY
SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHRAS W/NW OF THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT.
WE INCLUDED ISOLD SHRAS IN THE GRIDS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN
BERKSHIRES...ERN CATSKILLS...NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY BE NEAR NORMAL SAT NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH THE FROPA. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OFF THE MTNS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO SCARCE...WILL NOT EVEN MENTION SLT CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME...AS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE PASSING OF THIS BOUNDARY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PRESS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. A 1036 MB HIGH WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND INTO UPSTATE NY/WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...AS WELL AS THE LENGTHENING NIGHTS...WOULD
EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD IN TEMPS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS
AND COMFORTABLY WARM DAYS. THE LARGE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY
THING TO WATCH WILL BE AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WITH SOME TYPE OF
POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COULD SEND
SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME RAINFALL TOWARDS OUR WAY FOR THE
LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE WEATHER SO QUIET
IN THE SHORT AND MID TERM...WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD AND RATHER DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE GONE
CALM OR NEARLY SO AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
DAYBREAK. THERE WAS A FAIRLY GOOD SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AT MOST OBSERVING SITES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS...ONE OF THEM BEING KPOU WHERE THEY WERE ONLY A DEGREE
APART...AND KDDH AND KSLK WHERE THEY WERE TWO DEGREES APART. WE
PUSHED BACK THE TIME THAT KGFL IS EXPECTED TO GO MVFR AND WENT TO
A TEMPO FOR IFR SINCE WE CAN/T RULE IT OUT.  ON THE OTHER HAND WE
HAVE HAD TO ADD BOTH MVFR AND IFR FOR KPOU AS THE FCST AND OBSERVED
TEMPS ARE TRACKING VERY CLOSE AND THE OBSERVED DEWPT IS SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN FCST. THERE IS A GOOD SPREAD AT KALB IN SPITE
OF A LIGHT NORTH WIND WHICH CAN BRING FOG OFF THE RIVER JUST TO
THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE 10 DEGREE
TEMP DIFFERENCE. ANY RADIATION FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z...AND WINDS WILL TURN EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND SOME FOG MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
HALF MILE OR LESS IN A FEW SPOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT...AND
FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES ON THE
HUDSON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL CONTINUE NEAR
NORMAL CANAL ELEVATIONS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-050-051-053-058-061-063.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-041>043-054-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...15/11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190313
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1113 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOL AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG
ISLAND...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES IN THE PINE BARRENS ABOVE
EXPECTED LEVELS...BUT ITS IMPACTS ARE NOW GONE...WITH FOK FINALLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S. 18Z MAV NUMBERS MOVED TOWARDS COOLER 12Z MET
NUMBERS SO UPDATED TEMPERATURES WITH 18Z AMV/12Z MET BLEND. WINDS
DIMINISHING NTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ SO UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE THERE...BUT JUST A TAD TOO MUCH WIND FOR FROST. MOST
OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND THE PINE BARRENS WILL RUN
40-45...COASTAL CT AND EASTERN NE NJ ZONES PLUS AREAS OF SUFFOLK
COUNTY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOT IN THE PINE BARRENS SHOULD RUN
45-50 AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD RUN 50 TO 55 FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LONG ISLAND FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...HENCE PREVENTING THE PINE BARRENS FROM GETTING AS COLD
AS THE OTHERWISE WOULD IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRIFTING FURTHER OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT. THE BASE OF THE
HIGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE FRI THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EASTERLY
FLOW. THE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES THROUGH LATE SUN...BUT THIS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FRONT.

HIGHS FRI WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SAT...THEN MID TO UPPER 70S ON
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY TWO TIME
PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THU NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TROUGHING OVER SE CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING. 00Z/18 ECMWF IS NOW DRIER THAN THE 12Z/17 RUN AND THE
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN EITHER COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE HAD
LIGHT QPF IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST TO KEEP
CONTINUITY SINCE IT IS SUCH A MINOR EVENT.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OFF THE SE COAST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING NE WINDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AT BIT.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OFF THE
SE COAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EC.
WHILE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THU. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
SINCE ITS DAY 8.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE NE-E FLOW MAY END UP CAUSING COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS BORDERING
WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADDRESS THIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING SCA AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY...THEN A FEW
SCATTERED STRATO-CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

WIND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
10-15KT DURING THE MORNING THEN BECOMING ENE TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR...THOUGH PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS ESE TO
SE FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR IF ANY CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. A TIGHT NE GRADIENT WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND AND PECONIC
BAY...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BY MIDDAY FRI...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH SUN DUE TO THE EASTERLY FETCH.

THIS MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CAUSE LONG SHORE CURRENTS TO DEVELOP
ALONG ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES ON FRI. THEREFORE...THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT THIS EVENING...AND LET THE MID SHIFT PUT IT UP IF
DEEMED NECESSARY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINDS LIGHTEN TO NEARLY L/V AS THE HIGH NEARS ON SAT. WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
AND A MODERATE NE-E FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND A WEAK
EASTERLY SWELL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON
MON. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KT ON THE OCEAN AS
WELL. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FCST THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES BE ABOUT 1
FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON FRI. THIS MAY RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE 12Z
NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH...WITH DEPARTURES OVER 1.5 FT ACROSS
NYC...BUT SEEMS TO BRING THE DEPARTURES DOWN TOO SOON. THE TREND
FOR THE 12Z GFS IS BETTER...BUT SEEMS ABOUT 1/2 FT TOO LOW. WILL
SPLIT THE THE DIFFERENCE AND GO WITH THE GFS TREND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL...DURING MIDDAY
FRI.

CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR
WARNING...BUT MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...PFM
MARINE...MPS/PFM
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190156
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT RESULTING IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE. FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES W MA AND SW NH WHERE TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO LOW AND MID 30S.

IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...INCLUDING
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LOW PROB OF SOME OCEAN EFFECT STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NE FLOW
STEEPENS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OCEAN TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 60S SO THIS
WILL PROMOTE A DELTA-T OF ABOUT 15C BETWEEN OCEAN TEMP AND TOP OF
BOUNDARY LAYER.

ALSO...EXPECT SOME RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
AREAS IN THE CT VALLEY AND INTERIOR E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START FRI MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S /30S WELL
INLAND/...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. KEEP IN MIND THESE LOWS AND HIGHS ARE MORE
TYPICAL FOR MID OCT! AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. SO THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A DIMINISHING WIND WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER AN
INVERTED TROF SLIDING UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC WATERS MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO NANTUCKET EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL HAVE MODIFIED A BIT BY
FRI NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE AS COOL AS TNGT. IN
ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS DRY EITHER...SO PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AS LEAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LONG TERM WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY FEATURE TO
SPEAK OF CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT OF CANADA...WHICH
STILL COMES THROUGH DRY LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS
DURING SATURDAY. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN WITH
APPROACHING FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS COASTAL MA/RI WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL PUSH E
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT HEADS S AND WINDS SHIFT. SOME CLOUDS HEAD
INTO S NH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S-LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS...BUT MODELS STILL SHOW A DRY
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE IF ANY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE. WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 70S. WINDS SHIFT TO N SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SETTLES S
OF NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING IN A 1036 HPA HIGH OUT OF
QUEBEC...NOSING IT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A COOLER NE FLOW BUT DRY CONDITIONS.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK IN DURING MONDAY...SO EXPECT
EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OVER S NH MAY NOT BREAK 60 ON MONDAY. SOME PATCHY
FROST STILL POSSIBLE OVER N CENTRAL MA/S NH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY...MAY START TO
SEE SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE CLOSE TO IF NOT OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ENSURE LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG RANGE MODELS STARTING TO SHOW INVERTED TROUGH OR POSSIBLY SOME
TYPE OF HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC AND RIDE INTO THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED BRANCH AT HPC NOTING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE MODELS TO SUPPORT THIS
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MJO WESTERLY PHASE LATE
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR CONSISTENCY ON FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR...EXCEPT A LOW RISK OF CIGS BKN030 ACK AND HYA AFT 06Z.

FRI...VFR WITH A LOW RISK OF CIGS BKN030 ACK AND HYA.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH A LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS BOS-PVD-HYA-ACK AFT 06Z.
ALSO PATCHY MVFR VSBY IN AREAS OF FOG INLAND.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR.  LOCAL MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS. MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLAND SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE S
COAST. ALL OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE WIND WAVES 4-7 FT.

FRI...NE WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM BLOCK
ISLAND- MARTHAS VINEYARD TO NANTUCKET AND POINTS SOUTH. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4-7 FT.

FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH POSSIBLE 25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTH OCEAN WATERS. ELSEWHERE LIGHTER NE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY...E WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT...THOUGH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT STILL POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WITH
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SEAS MAY STILL CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY...AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS...LIGHT W-SW WINDS SHIFT TO
N LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE AND INCREASE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BUILD
UP TO 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT NE WINDS TO CONTINUE.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS MAY REACH 7 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
DURING TUESDAY.

MAY START TO SEE INCREASING E-SE SWELLS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OR STRONG LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG HIGH COMBINED WITH
THIS POSSIBLE LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE...BUT STILL QUITE
A BIT OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008-009-
     026.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT

000
FXUS61 KOKX 182359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
759 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOL AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ON TAP AS HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SLOWLY NOSES ITS WAY TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN 10 TO 15 MPH
WINDS. SINCE THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED THERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS NYC AND
SURROUNDING SUBURBS. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY...WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRIFTING FURTHER OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT. THE BASE OF THE
HIGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE FRI THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EASTERLY
FLOW. THE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES THROUGH LATE SUN...BUT THIS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FRONT.

HIGHS FRI WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SAT...THEN MID TO UPPER 70S ON
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY TWO TIME
PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THU NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TROUGHING OVER SE CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING. 00Z/18 ECMWF IS NOW DRIER THAN THE 12Z/17 RUN AND THE
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN EITHER COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE HAD
LIGHT QPF IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST TO KEEP
CONTINUITY SINCE IT IS SUCH A MINOR EVENT.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OFF THE SE COAST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING NE WINDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AT BIT.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OFF THE
SE COAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EC.
WHILE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THU. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
SINCE ITS DAY 8.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE NE-E FLOW MAY END UP CAUSING COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS BORDERING
WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADDRESS THIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING SCA AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY...THEN A FEW
SCATTERED STRATO-CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

WIND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
10-15KT DURING THE MORNING THEN BECOMING ENE TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR...THOUGH PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS ESE TO
SE FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. A TIGHT NE GRADIENT WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND AND PECONIC
BAY...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BY MIDDAY FRI...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH SUN DUE TO THE EASTERLY FETCH.

THIS MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CAUSE LONG SHORE CURRENTS TO DEVELOP
ALONG ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES ON FRI. THEREFORE...THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT THIS EVENING...AND LET THE MID SHIFT PUT IT UP IF
DEEMED NECESSARY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINDS LIGHTEN TO NEARLY L/V AS THE HIGH NEARS ON SAT. WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
AND A MODERATE NE-E FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND A WEAK
EASTERLY SWELL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON
MON. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KT ON THE OCEAN AS
WELL. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FCST THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES BE ABOUT 1
FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON FRI. THIS MAY RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE 12Z
NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH...WITH DEPARTURES OVER 1.5 FT ACROSS
NYC...BUT SEEMS TO BRING THE DEPARTURES DOWN TOO SOON. THE TREND
FOR THE 12Z GFS IS BETTER...BUT SEEMS ABOUT 1/2 FT TOO LOW. WILL
SPLIT THE THE DIFFERENCE AND GO WITH THE GFS TREND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL...DURING MIDDAY
FRI.

CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR
WARNING...BUT MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS

000
FXUS61 KALY 182314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA.  A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SATELLITE PICTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY
CUMULUS OVER FCST AREA /OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE WAKE OF
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
THE FRONTAL INVERSION ABOVE A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER ONE.
THE H500 FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE W/NW THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM SWRN QUEBEC. THE N/NW
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECT...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM AIR. THE AIR MASS IS CHILLY FOR MID-SEPT WITH DEWPOINTS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND S-CNTRL QUEBEC IN THE 20S AND L30S. WE
ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACK
REGION...LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...ERN RENSSELAER
CO...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING. WE
ARE EXPECTING AREAS OF FROST JUST OUTSIDE THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT /EXCLUDING ERN SCH
AND ALB COS/ WITH MIN TEMPS 33-36F. OVERALL...TEMPS OUTSIDE THE
FROST/FREEZE AREAS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.  WE DID A BLEND OF
THE NGM/MAV MOS TEMPS WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE MAVMOS TEMPS WERE MUCH COLDER THAN THE ETA/NGM VALUES.
IT HAS SHOWN A COLD BIAS IN THESE SITUATIONS...WITH ACTUALLY THE
NGM DOING THE BEST. WE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRIOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. PLEASE SEE THE NPW FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE GORGEOUS WEATHER AGAIN WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY AT 5-6C...H925 TEMPS AROUND 10C...SO HIGHS IN THE MID TO
U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS ARE
LIKELY.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR. THE FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LOWER...ASIDE FROM THE NRN TIER WHERE SCT-
AREAS OF FROST MAY OCCUR AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE GROWING SEASON MAY
END THERE TONIGHT...SO WE ARE NOT GOING TO MENTION FROST IN THE
ZFP/HWO AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE LOVELY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
THERE MAYBE A FEW CIRRUS AROUND...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. H850 TEMPS RISE TO 10-11C. EXPECT L70S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOL AIR APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MOISTURE STARVED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE. THE GFS/NAM KEEP ANY
SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHRAS W/NW OF THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT.
WE INCLUDED ISOLD SHRAS IN THE GRIDS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN
BERKSHIRES...ERN CATSKILLS...NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY BE NEAR NORMAL SAT NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH THE FROPA. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OFF THE MTNS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO SCARCE...WILL NOT EVEN MENTION SLT CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME...AS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE PASSING OF THIS BOUNDARY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PRESS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. A 1036 MB HIGH WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND INTO UPSTATE NY/WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...AS WELL AS THE LENGTHENING NIGHTS...WOULD
EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD IN TEMPS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS
AND COMFORTABLY WARM DAYS. THE LARGE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY
THING TO WATCH WILL BE AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WITH SOME TYPE OF
POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COULD SEND
SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME RAINFALL TOWARDS OUR WAY FOR THE
LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE WEATHER SO QUIET
IN THE SHORT AND MID TERM...WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT KGFL...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY BETWEEN
08Z-12Z/FRI. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE MENTION WITHIN TAFS.
HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL WITH GROUND FOG FORMATION...SOME VSBY
REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE ARE POSSIBLE EVEN PRIOR TO 08Z/FRI.
ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION AT KALB AND
KPOU. HOWEVER...GIVEN A LIGHT WIND FROM THE NE TO E NEAR
DAYBREAK...OFF THE NEARBY WARM HUDSON RIVER...A BRIEF REDUCTION INTO
IFR RANGE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KALB AROUND 12Z. AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE...WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z SAT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 5 KT TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT BY LATE FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT...AND
FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF ANY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO TIDAL
EFFECTS...AND/OR RESERVOIR RELEASES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-050-051-053-058-061-063.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-041>043-054-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...15/11
HYDROLOGY...KL/RCK

000
FXUS61 KOKX 182154
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
554 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOL AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ON TAP AS HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SLOWLY NOSES ITS WAY TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN 10 TO 15 MPH
WINDS. SINCE THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED THERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS NYC AND
SURROUNDING SUBURBS. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY...WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRIFTING FURTHER OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT. THE BASE OF THE
HIGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE FRI THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EASTERLY
FLOW. THE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. NO PCPN EXPECTED. A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES THROUGH LATE SUN...BUT THIS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FRONT.

HIGHS FRI WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SAT...THEN MID TO UPPER 70S ON
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY TWO TIME
PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THU NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TROFFING OVER SE CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING. 00Z/18 ECMWF IS NOW DRIER THAN THE 12Z/17 RUN AND THE
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN EITHER COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE HAD
LIGHT QPF IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST TO KEEP
CONTINUITY SINCE IT IS SUCH A MINOR EVENT.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OFF THE SE COAST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING NE WINDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AT BIT.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OFF THE
SE COAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EC.
WHILE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THU. ONLY HAVE SCHC POPS FOR NOW
SINCE ITS DAY 8.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE NE-E FLOW MAY END UP CAUSING COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS BORDERING
WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADDRESS THIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...A
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE ESE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER
E...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NEAR TERM THROUGH SUNSET...NNE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THSD FT WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET AROUND 23Z.

SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT...A STEADY NE WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KT IS
FORECAST AT COASTAL TERMINALS FROM NYC E OVERNIGHT. WINDS N AND W
OF NYC WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT.

FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
FROM NE TO E WITH THE HIGHEST GRADIENT SHIFTING FURTHER S ALONG
THE NJ AND DELMARVA COASTS. WIND SPEEDS 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MON. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRES
FOR MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. A TIGHT NE GRADIENT WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND AND PECONIC
BAY...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BY MIDDAY FRI...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH SUN DUE TO THE EASTERLY FETCH.

THIS MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CAUSE LONG SHORE CURRENTS TO DEVELOP
ALONG ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES ON FRI. THEREFORE...THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT THIS EVENING...AND LET THE MID SHIFT PUT IT UP IF
DEEMED NECESSARY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINDS LIGHTEN TO NEARLY L/V AS THE HIGH NEARS ON SAT. WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
AND A MODERATE NE-E FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND A WEAK
EASTERLY SWELL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON
MON. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KT ON THE OCEAN AS
WELL. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FCST THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES BE ABOUT 1
FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON FRI. THIS MAY RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE 12Z
NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH...WITH DEPARTURES OVER 1.5 FT ACROSS
NYC...BUT SEEMS TO BRING THE DEPARTURES DOWN TOO SOON. THE TREND
FOR THE 12Z GFS IS BETTER...BUT SEEMS ABOUT 1/2 FT TOO LOW. WILL
SPLIT THE THE DIFFERENCE AND GO WITH THE GFS TREND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL...DURING MIDDAY
FRI.

CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR
WARNING...BUT MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 182114
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
515 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE REGION. AS
THE CANADIAN HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD /AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED/
WITH LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK IN THE 40S REGION-WIDE. WHERE WINDS GO
CALM OR LIGHT...WHICH WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S. HERE IS WHERE WE EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD FROST. CONFIGURATION OF CURRENT FROST ADVISORY MATCHES UP
WITH LATEST MOS MIN TEMPS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FROST
ADVISORY.  PLEASE SEE ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...INCLUDING
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. COULD HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT STRATO-CUMULUS
CLOUDS REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NE FLOW STEEPENS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OCEAN TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 60S SO THIS WILL
PROMOTE A DELTA-T OF ABOUT 15C BETWEEN OCEAN TEMP AND TOP OF
BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START FRI MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S /30S WELL
INLAND/...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. KEEP IN MIND THESE LOWS AND HIGHS ARE MORE
TYPICAL FOR MID OCT! AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. SO THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A DIMINISHING WIND WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER AN
INVERTED TROF SLIDING UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC WATERS MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO NANTUCKET EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL HAVE MODIFIED A BIT BY
FRI NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE AS COOL AS TNGT. IN
ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS DRY EITHER...SO PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AS LEAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LONG TERM WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY FEATURE TO
SPEAK OF CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT OF CANADA...WHICH
STILL COMES THROUGH DRY LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS
DURING SATURDAY. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN WITH
APPROACHING FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS COASTAL MA/RI WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL PUSH E
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT HEADS S AND WINDS SHIFT. SOME CLOUDS HEAD
INTO S NH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S-LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS...BUT MODELS STILL SHOW A DRY
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE IF ANY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE. WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 70S. WINDS SHIFT TO N SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SETTLES S
OF NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING IN A 1036 HPA HIGH OUT OF
QUEBEC...NOSING IT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A COOLER NE FLOW BUT DRY CONDITIONS.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK IN DURING MONDAY...SO EXPECT
EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OVER S NH MAY NOT BREAK 60 ON MONDAY. SOME PATCHY
FROST STILL POSSIBLE OVER N CENTRAL MA/S NH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY...MAY START TO
SEE SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE CLOSE TO IF NOT OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ENSURE LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG RANGE MODELS STARTING TO SHOW INVERTED TROUGH OR POSSIBLY SOME
TYPE OF HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC AND RIDE INTO THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED BRANCH AT HPC NOTING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE MODELS TO SUPPORT THIS
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MJO WESTERLY PHASE LATE
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR CONSISTENCY ON FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR...EXCEPT A LOW RISK OF CIGS BKN030 ACK AND HYA AFT 06Z.

FRI...VFR WITH A LOW RISK OF CIGS BKN030 ACK AND HYA.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH A LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS BOS-PVD-HYA-ACK AFT 06Z.
ALSO PATCHY MVFR VSBY IN AREAS OF FOG INLAND.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR.  LOCAL MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS. MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLAND SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE S
COAST. ALL OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE WIND WAVES 4-7 FT.

FRI...NE WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM BLOCK
ISLAND- MARTHAS VINEYARD TO NANTUCKET AND POINTS SOUTH. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4-7 FT.

FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH POSSIBLE 25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTH OCEAN WATERS. ELSEWHERE LIGHTER NE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY...E WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT...THOUGH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT STILL POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WITH
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SEAS MAY STILL CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY...AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS...LIGHT W-SW WINDS SHIFT TO
N LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE AND INCREASE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BUILD
UP TO 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT NE WINDS TO CONTINUE.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS MAY REACH 7 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
DURING TUESDAY.

MAY START TO SEE INCREASING E-SE SWELLS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OR STRONG LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG HIGH COMBINED WITH
THIS POSSIBLE LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE...BUT STILL QUITE
A BIT OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 182010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA.  A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SATELLITE PICTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY
CUMULUS OVER FCST AREA /OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE WAKE OF
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
THE FRONTAL INVERSION ABOVE A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER ONE.
THE H500 FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE W/NW THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM SWRN QUEBEC. THE N/NW
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECT...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM AIR. THE AIR MASS IS CHILLY FOR MID-SEPT WITH DEWPOINTS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND S-CNTRL QUEBEC IN THE 20S AND L30S. WE
ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACK
REGION...LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...ERN RENSSELAER
CO...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING. WE
ARE EXPECTING AREAS OF FROST JUST OUTSIDE THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT /EXCLUDING ERN SCH
AND ALB COS/ WITH MIN TEMPS 33-36F. OVERALL...TEMPS OUTSIDE THE
FROST/FREEZE AREAS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.  WE DID A BLEND OF
THE NGM/MAV MOS TEMPS WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE MAVMOS TEMPS WERE MUCH COLDER THAN THE ETA/NGM VALUES.
IT HAS SHOWN A COLD BIAS IN THESE SITUATIONS...WITH ACTUALLY THE
NGM DOING THE BEST. WE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRIOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. PLEASE SEE THE NPW FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE GORGEOUS WEATHER AGAIN WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY AT 5-6C...H925 TEMPS AROUND 10C...SO HIGHS IN THE MID TO
U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS ARE
LIKELY.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR. THE FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LOWER...ASIDE FROM THE NRN TIER WHERE SCT-
AREAS OF FROST MAY OCCUR AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE GROWING SEASON MAY
END THERE TONIGHT...SO WE ARE NOT GOING TO MENTION FROST IN THE
ZFP/HWO AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE LOVELY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
THERE MAYBE A FEW CIRRUS AROUND...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. H850 TEMPS RISE TO 10-11C. EXPECT L70S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOL AIR APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MOISTURE STARVED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE. THE GFS/NAM KEEP ANY
SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHRAS W/NW OF THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT.
WE INCLUDED ISOLD SHRAS IN THE GRIDS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN
BERKSHIRES...ERN CATSKILLS...NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY BE NEAR NORMAL SAT NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH THE FROPA. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OFF THE MTNS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO SCARCE...WILL NOT EVEN MENTION SLT CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME...AS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE PASSING OF THIS BOUNDARY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PRESS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. A 1036 MB HIGH WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND INTO UPSTATE NY/WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...AS WELL AS THE LENGTHENING NIGHTS...WOULD
EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD IN TEMPS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS
AND COMFORTABLY WARM DAYS. THE LARGE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY
THING TO WATCH WILL BE AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WITH SOME TYPE OF
POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COULD SEND
SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME RAINFALL TOWARDS OUR WAY FOR THE
LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE WEATHER SO QUIET
IN THE SHORT AND MID TERM...WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z/FRI...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CU
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THEREAFTER...PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KGFL...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/FRI. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE MENTION WITHIN TAFS. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL WITH
GROUND FOG FORMATION...SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE EVEN PRIOR TO 08Z/FRI. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION AT KALB AND KPOU. HOWEVER...GIVEN A LIGHT
WIND FROM THE NE TO E NEAR DAYBREAK...OFF THE NEARBY WARM HUDSON
RIVER...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION INTO IFR
RANGE AT KALB AROUND 12Z. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER THROUGH AND PAST 18Z/FRI.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N TO NE AT 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 8 KT TONIGHT...AND VEER INTO THE E...THEN SE FOR FRI AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE
                   LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT...AND
FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF ANY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO TIDAL
EFFECTS...AND/OR RESERVOIR RELEASES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-050-051-053-058-061-063.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-041>043-054-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...15/11
HYDROLOGY...KL/RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 181959
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A MODERATING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SATELLITE PICTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY
CUMULUS OVER FCST AREA /OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE WAKE OF
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
THE FRONTAL INVERSION ABOVE A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER ONE.
THE H500 FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE W/NW THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM SWRN QUEBEC. THE N/NW
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECT...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM AIR. THE AIR MASS IS CHILLY FOR MID-SEPT WITH DEWPOINTS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND S-CNTRL QUEBEC IN THE 20S AND L30S. WE
ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACK
REGION...LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...ERN RENSSELAER
CO...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING. WE
ARE EXPECTING AREAS OF FROST JUST OUTSIDE THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT /EXCLUDING ERN SCH
AND ALB COS/ WITH MIN TEMPS 33-36F. OVERALL...TEMPS OUTSIDE THE
FROST/FREEZE AREAS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.  WE DID A BLEND OF
THE NGM/MAV MOS TEMPS WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE MAVMOS TEMPS WERE MUCH COLDER THAN THE ETA/NGM VALUES.
IT HAS SHOWN A COLD BIAS IN THESE SITUATIONS...WITH ACTUALLY THE
NGM DOING THE BEST. WE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRIOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. PLEASE SEE THE NPW FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE GORGEOUS WEATHER AGAIN WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY AT 5-6C...H925 TEMPS AROUND 10C...SO HIGHS IN THE MID TO
U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS ARE
LIKELY.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR. THE FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LOWER...ASIDE FROM THE NRN TIER WHERE SCT-
AREAS OF FROST MAY OCCUR AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE GROWING SEASON MAY
END THERE TONIGHT...SO WE ARE NOT GOING TO MENTION FROST IN THE
ZFP/HWO AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE LOVELY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
THERE MAYBE A FEW CIRRUS AROUND...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. H850 TEMPS RISE TO 10-11C. EXPECT L70S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOL AIR APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MOISTURE STARVED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE. THE GFS/NAM KEEP ANY
SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHRAS W/NW OF THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT.
WE INCLUDED ISOLD SHRAS IN THE GRIDS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN
BERKSHIRES...ERN CATSKILLS...NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY BE NEAR NORMAL SAT NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH THE FROPA. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OFF THE MTNS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO SCARCE...WILL NOT EVEN MENTION SLT CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME...AS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE PASSING OF THIS BOUNDARY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PRESS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. A 1036 MB HIGH WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND INTO UPSTATE NY/WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...AS WELL AS THE LENGTHENING NIGHTS...WOULD
EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD IN TEMPS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS
AND COMFORTABLY WARM DAYS. THE LARGE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY
THING TO WATCH WILL BE AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WITH SOME TYPE OF
POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COULD SEND
SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME RAINFALL TOWARDS OUR WAY FOR THE
LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE WEATHER SO QUIET
IN THE SHORT AND MID TERM...WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z/FRI...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CU
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THEREAFTER...PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KGFL...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/FRI. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE MENTION WITHIN TAFS. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL WITH
GROUND FOG FORMATION...SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE EVEN PRIOR TO 08Z/FRI. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION AT KALB AND KPOU. HOWEVER...GIVEN A LIGHT
WIND FROM THE NE TO E NEAR DAYBREAK...OFF THE NEARBY WARM HUDSON
RIVER...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION INTO IFR
RANGE AT KALB AROUND 12Z. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER THROUGH AND PAST 18Z/FRI.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N TO NE AT 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 8 KT TONIGHT...AND VEER INTO THE E...THEN SE FOR FRI AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE
                   LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT...AND
FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF ANY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO TIDAL
EFFECTS...AND/OR RESERVOIR RELEASES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-050-051-053-058-061-063.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-041>043-054-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...15/11
HYDROLOGY...KL/RCK

000
FXUS61 KOKX 181951
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
351 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOL AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ON TAP AS HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SLOWLY NOSES ITS WAY TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN 10 TO 15 MPH
WINDS. SINCE THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED THERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS NYC AND
SURROUNDING SUBURBS. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY...WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRIFTING FURTHER OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT. THE BASE OF THE
HIGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE FRI THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EASTERLY
FLOW. THE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. NO PCPN EXPECTED. A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES THROUGH LATE SUN...BUT THIS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FRONT.

HIGHS FRI WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SAT...THEN MID TO UPPER 70S ON
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY TWO TIME
PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THU NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TROFFING OVER SE CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING. 00Z/18 ECMWF IS NOW DRIER THAN THE 12Z/17 RUN AND THE
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN EITHER COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE HAD
LIGHT QPF IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST TO KEEP
CONTINUITY SINCE IT IS SUCH A MINOR EVENT.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OFF THE SE COAST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING NE WINDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AT BIT.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OFF THE
SE COAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EC.
WHILE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THU. ONLY HAVE SCHC POPS FOR NOW
SINCE ITS DAY 8.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE NE-E FLOW MAY END UP CAUSING COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS BORDERING
WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADDRESS THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...A
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE ESE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER
E...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NEAR TERM THROUGH SUNSET...NNE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THSD FT WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET AROUND 23Z.

SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT...A STEADY NE WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KT IS
FORECAST AT COASTAL TERMINALS FROM NYC E OVERNIGHT. WINDS N AND W
OF NYC WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT.

FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
FROM NE TO E WITH THE HIGHEST GRADIENT SHIFTING FURTHER S ALONG
THE NJ AND DELMARVA COASTS. WIND SPEEDS 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MON. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRES
FOR MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. A TIGHT NE GRADIENT WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND AND PECONIC
BAY...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BY MIDDAY FRI...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH SUN DUE TO THE EASTERLY FETCH.

WINDS LIGHTEN TO NEARLY L/V AS THE HIGH NEARS ON SAT. WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
AND A MODERATE NE-E FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND A WEAK
EASTERLY SWELL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON
MON. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KT ON THE OCEAN AS
WELL. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FCST THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...TIDAL DEPARTURES BE ABOUT 1
FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON FRI. THIS MAY RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE 12Z
NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH...WITH DEPARTURES OVER 1.5 FT ACROSS
NYC...BUT SEEMS TO BRING THE DEPARTURES DOWN TOO SOON. THE TREND
FOR THE 12Z GFS IS BETTER...BUT SEEMS ABOUT 1/2 FT TOO LOW. WILL
SPLIT THE THE DIFFERENCE AND GO WITH THE GFS TREND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL...DURING MIDDAY
FRI.

CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR
WARNING...BUT MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 181934
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
334 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE REGION. AS
THE CANADIAN HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD /AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED/
WITH LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK IN THE 40S REGION-WIDE. WHERE WINDS GO CALM
OR LIGHT...WHICH WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S. HERE IS WHERE WE EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD FROST. CONFIGURATION OF CURRENT FROST ADVISORY MATCHES UP
WITH LATEST MOS MIN TEMPS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FROST
ADVISORY.  PLEASE SEE ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...INCLUDING
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. COULD HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT STRATO-CUMULUS
CLOUDS REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NE FLOW STEEPENS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OCEAN TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 60S SO THIS WILL PROMOTE
A DELTA-T OF ABOUT 15C BETWEEN OCEAN TEMP AND TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AFTER A CHILLY START FRI MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S /30S WELL INLAND/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. KEEP IN MIND THESE LOWS AND HIGHS ARE MORE TYPICAL FOR
MID OCT! AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH. SO THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A
DIMINISHING WIND WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER AN
INVERTED TROF SLIDING UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC WATERS MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO NANTUCKET EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL HAVE MODIFIED A BIT BY FRI
NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE AS COOL AS TNGT. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL NOT BE AS DRY EITHER...SO PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.  ONLY CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  TEMPS AVERAGING BELOW
NORMAL WITH WARMEST DAY SUN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS COASTAL LOW LURKS OFFSHORE.  PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED
FRI NIGHT AND A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NW ZONES MAY ALSO SEE SOME
FROST AS MINS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXCEPT CLOSE TO 50 BID/ACK/OUTER CAPE.

SAT LOOKS LIKE A MOSUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF SNE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOUDS FROM OFFSHORE STORM.  GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REACHING CAPE/ISLANDS AND SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WITH PT-MOCLDY SKIES CAPE/ISLANDS.  MOST CLOUDS ACK AND A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH/EAST OF ACK. TEMPS 65-70.

SAT NIGHT...LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE PT-MOCLDY SKIES PERSISTING
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS IN NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER NW ZONES AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.  MILDER TEMPS
WITH MINS LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUN...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW SO MOST OF SNE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.  BEST CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS N ZONES AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE GRIDS.  SUN WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH 2M TEMPS SUGGESTING MAXES IN LOW TO MID 70S.

MON THROUGH WED...STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.  MAX TEMPS MON/TUE LIKELY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND MORE PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AT NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR.  SOME MODERATION BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...VFR...EXCEPT A LOW RISK OF CIGS BKN030 ACK AND HYA AFT 06Z.

FRI...VFR WITH A LOW RISK OF CIGS BKN030 ACK AND HYA.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH A LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS BOS-PVD-HYA-ACK AFT 06Z.
ALSO PATCHY MVFR VSBY IN AREAS OF FOG INLAND.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT FOG SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 MAINLY ACROSS THE
S.COAST. ALL OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE WIND WAVES 4-7 FT.

FRI...NE WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM BLOCK ISLAND- MARTHAS VINEYARD TO NANTUCKET AND POINTS SOUTH.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4-7 FT.

FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH POSSIBLE 25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTH OCEAN WATERS. ELSEWHERE LIGHTER NE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SAT...NE WINDS 10-15 KTS. SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN IN 5-6
FT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS BECOMING
WESTERLY SUN JUST AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...ANOTHER PULSE OF SCA N/NE WINDS WITH G25 KTS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS WILL BUILD
UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT - UPDATED 333 PM
NEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 333 PM
SHORT TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 333 PM
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA - UPDATED 333 PM
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA - UPDATED 333 PM

000
FXUS61 KALY 181737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A MODERATING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM EDT...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF FRONT
CONTINUES. DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND...WITH MAINLY LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE HELD NEARLY STEADY...GENERALLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S. WE EXPECT TEMPS WITHIN THE VALLEYS TO SLOWLY
CONTINUE WARMING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...REACHING THE MID 60S FROM
ALBANY N...AND 65-70 TO THE S. ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TEMPS
MAY ONLY WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
WESTERN MA.

PERSISTENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
SOMEWHAT...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. ADDITIONAL PATCHY
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTH COUNTRY...OCCASIONALLY DRIFTING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BEFORE
ERODING.

AT THIS TIME THE SET UP IN TERMS OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
COUPLED WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AND AS A
RESULT EXPECT THAT THE GROWING SEASON WILL LIKELY END TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MUCH OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S IN THIS AREA WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE THUS
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM
FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...CENTRAL TACONICS...OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES HAVE ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY WITH LOWS 33 TO 36 DEGREES. H8 TEMPS THIS EVENING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1-2C NORTH TO 5-6C SOUTH ACROSS FA AND
WITH CENTER OF 1030 MB HIGH JUST NORTH OF FA...THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. AT THIS POINT THE ONLY
AREAS WHICH MAY BE SPARED FROM ANY FROST AT ALL WOULD BE THE URBAN
AREAS WITHIN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY (ALTHOUGH RURAL AREAS MAY HAVE SOME FROST WITH
MID 30S POSSIBLE) AS WELL AS AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO BODIES OF
WATER. NPW AND HWO WITH THIS INFO HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNNY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN TODAY
AND SIMILAR TEMPS AS WAA ALOFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY EXCEPT IN MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LESS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF FA AND AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE TEMPS 36 OR BELOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN
HWO AS GROWING SEASON IN MUCH OF THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE DONE
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO START AS H8
TEMPS RISE TO 10-12 C AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOUTH WINDS UNDER
10 MPH EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH FA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH FRONT AND FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FA WITH
NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. THUS HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY
WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO THE COAST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS VEER WEST TO NORTH AND DIMINISH. EXPECT
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW OF COOL AIR OVER THE
WARM LAKE. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED TIME WISE AS WELL
AS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. ELSEWHERE THINGS SHOULD BE
DRY. RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HIGHS MONDAY A BIT CHILLY...UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE LOW 70S SOUTH...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE MID 60S
TO THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.  LOWS WILL BE 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
GRADUALLY WARM TO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z/FRI...WITH JUST
SOME PASSING CU PRIOR TO SUNSET. THEREAFTER...PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/FRI.
WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE MENTION WITHIN TAFS. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL
WITH GROUND FOG FORMATION...SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE
ARE POSSIBLE EVEN PRIOR TO 08Z/FRI. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION AT KALB AND KPOU. HOWEVER...GIVEN A LIGHT
WIND FROM THE NE TO E NEAR DAYBREAK...OFF THE NEARBY WARM HUDSON
RIVER...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION INTO IFR
RANGE AT KALB AROUND 12Z. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER THROUGH AND PAST 18Z/FRI.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N TO NE AT 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 8 KT TONIGHT...AND VEER INTO THE E...THEN SE FOR FRI AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE
                   LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT
TODAY...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 30 TO
50 PERCENT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-050-051-053-058-061-063.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-041>043-054-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KOKX 181733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
133 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE TRI-STATE AREA
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...EACH FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AREA OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
MORNING FCST ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE TO ZFP PLANNED. WILL UPDATE
AFM/PFM/FTP BASED ON LATEST HOURLY OBS.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND NEARLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND OFFSHORE LOW. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A FEW STRATOCU WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
TODAY...OTHERWISE SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
SURFACE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEAN TROF WILL RESIDE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WESTERLIES
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRI BUILDS EAST OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EVE...BUT ITS RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SW
INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. 85H TEMPS OF 6 TO 8C
WILL ONLY SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...SOME 5
TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

NE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE E AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE FRI AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...CLOUDS AND PCPN IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUN. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH
DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

MORNING LOWS FRI WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN METRO NY...TO THE
40S IN THE SUBURBS. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND
WEST MAY EVEN GET INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR A BRIEF TIME. NOT
EXPECTING FROST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR
SAT MORNING...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PERSISTENT NE FLOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEASONABLE
AND THEN BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.
FOR THE TIME BEING...KEEPING CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IS TYPICAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF SEPTEMBER...
THE OVERNIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FEATURE A BIT OF A CHILL IN THE
AIR...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY AND URBANIZED SECTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...A
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE ESE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER
E...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NEAR TERM THROUGH SUNSET...NNE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THSD FT WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET
AROUND 23Z.

SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT...A STEADY NE WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KT IS
FORECAST AT COASTAL TERMINALS FROM NYC E OVERNIGHT. WINDS N AND W
OF NYC WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT.

FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
FROM NE TO E WITH THE HIGHEST GRADIENT SHIFTING FURTHER S ALONG
THE NJ AND DELMARVA COASTS. WIND SPEEDS 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MON. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRES
FOR MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND WEAKEN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR OVER WARMER WATER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONFINED TO OCEAN WATERS...AND EASTERN LI
SOUND...PECONIC/GARDINERS BAY.

AS THE HIGH PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FEET OR
MORE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS DUE TO FETCH. AS SUCH...SMALL CRAFT ADV
POSTED FOR OCEAN WATERS AND ERN LI SOUND...PECONIC/GARDINERS BAY
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE OCEAN THROUGH
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR SEAS AT THAT TIME.

EASTERLY FLOW PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER WINDS LIGHTEN
FURTHER AS THE HIGH NEARS SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN...AND THUS AN INCREASE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KALY 181520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1110 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A MODERATING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM EDT...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF FRONT
CONTINUES. DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND...WITH MAINLY LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE HELD NEARLY STEADY...GENERALLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S. WE EXPECT TEMPS WITHIN THE VALLEYS TO SLOWLY
CONTINUE WARMING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...REACHING THE MID 60S FROM
ALBANY N...AND 65-70 TO THE S. ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TEMPS
MAY ONLY WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
WESTERN MA.

PERSISTENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
SOMEWHAT...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. ADDITIONAL PATCHY
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTH COUNTRY...OCCASIONALLY DRIFTING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BEFORE
ERODING.

AT THIS TIME THE SET UP IN TERMS OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
COUPLED WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AND AS A
RESULT EXPECT THAT THE GROWING SEASON WILL LIKELY END TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MUCH OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S IN THIS AREA WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE THUS
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM
FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...CENTRAL TACONICS...OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES HAVE ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY WITH LOWS 33 TO 36 DEGREES. H8 TEMPS THIS EVENING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1-2C NORTH TO 5-6C SOUTH ACROSS FA AND
WITH CENTER OF 1030 MB HIGH JUST NORTH OF FA...THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. AT THIS POINT THE ONLY
AREAS WHICH MAY BE SPARED FROM ANY FROST AT ALL WOULD BE THE URBAN
AREAS WITHIN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY (ALTHOUGH RURAL AREAS MAY HAVE SOME FROST WITH
MID 30S POSSIBLE) AS WELL AS AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO BODIES OF
WATER. NPW AND HWO WITH THIS INFO HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNNY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN TODAY
AND SIMILAR TEMPS AS WAA ALOFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY EXCEPT IN MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LESS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF FA AND AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE TEMPS 36 OR BELOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN
HWO AS GROWING SEASON IN MUCH OF THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE DONE
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO START AS H8
TEMPS RISE TO 10-12 C AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOUTH WINDS UNDER
10 MPH EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH FA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH FRONT AND FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FA WITH
NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. THUS HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY
WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO THE COAST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS VEER WEST TO NORTH AND DIMINISH. EXPECT
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW OF COOL AIR OVER THE
WARM LAKE. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED TIME WISE AS WELL
AS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. ELSEWHERE THINGS SHOULD BE
DRY. RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HIGHS MONDAY A BIT CHILLY...UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE LOW 70S SOUTH...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE MID 60S
TO THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.  LOWS WILL BE 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
GRADUALLY WARM TO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE RESULT THAT RADIATION FOG WAS RATHER LIMITED. GLENS
FALLS WAS DOWN TO UNDER 2 MILES AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PITTSFIELD WAS DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR A FEW MINUTES. THE
CEILING AT KGFL WAS MVFR AT 09Z BUT OTHERWISE METAR SITES IN THE
AREA WERE VFR. WINDS WERE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WILL PICK UP
TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY MID MORNING AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY LATE
EVENING EXCEPT IN A FEW AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL CAUSE
NORTH/SOUTH FUNNELING.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS AS THE HIGH ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER TREES ARE STILL IN FULL LEAF...
THE GROUND IS STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST...NIGHTS ARE LONG...AND
BODIES OF WATER ARE STILL WARM. AS A RESULT VISIBILITY WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS
AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. ALL THREE TAF SITES COULD BE IMPACTED...
BUT THE ONE MOST LIKELY TO BE IS GLENS FALLS /KGFL/. IF THE WINDS
AT KALB ARE CALM FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTH
OF THE AIRPORT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE FLIGHT PATH. THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING THE FOG OVER THE AIRPORT. THE TERRAIN
NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE /KPOU/ ALSO TENDS TO FAVOR FOG IF WINDS ARE
CALM SINCE COOL AIR DRAINS DOWN THE WAPPINGER VALLEY TO THE
AIRPORT.  AT THIS TIME WE WILL ONLY FORECAST KGFL TO GO IFR
WITH THE OTHER TWO MVFR...BUT KPOU WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL
AND WITH THE RIGHT LOCAL CONDITIONS KALB COULD GO IFR AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE
                   LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT
TODAY...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 30 TO
50 PERCENT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-050-051-053-058-061-063.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-041>043-054-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 181357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 930 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING
CAPE COD...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AS DEW PTS FALL INTO THE 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT.

AS FOR CLOUDS...POST FRONTAL/OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
ADVECT DOWN THE ME COAST AS SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. EXPECT THE BULK
OF THIS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO TREK DOWN THE COASTLINE AND IMPACT
EASTERN MA ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL YIELD
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LATEST SREF/GFS AND NAM SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS
TO 30-35 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO
25 MPH UPSTREAM OVER CAPE ANN AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS.

CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY MILD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...NORTHERLY
CONTINENTAL FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE COOLER
AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID
60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOWER 70S OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL
PLAIN...EXCEPT UPPER 60S EAST COASTAL MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED CLOSER TO THE COAST. DELTA
T VALUES AROUND 13C BETWEEN THE OCEAN AND 850 MILLIBARS...AND WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO FORM DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT A FAIRLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NPWBOX FOR
DETAILS.

FRIDAY...A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS THE
REGION. H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +5 AND +7 CELSIUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND...EXCEPT NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.  ONLY CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  TEMPS AVERAGING BELOW
NORMAL WITH WARMEST DAY SUN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS COASTAL LOW LURKS OFFSHORE.  PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED
FRI NIGHT AND A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NW ZONES MAY ALSO SEE SOME
FROST AS MINS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXCEPT CLOSE TO 50 BID/ACK/OUTER CAPE.

SAT LOOKS LIKE A MOSUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF SNE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOUDS FROM OFFSHORE STORM.  GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REACHING CAPE/ISLANDS AND SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WITH PT-MOCLDY SKIES CAPE/ISLANDS.  MOST CLOUDS ACK AND A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH/EAST OF ACK. TEMPS 65-70.

SAT NIGHT...LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE PT-MOCLDY SKIES PERSISTING
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS IN NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER NW ZONES AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.  MILDER TEMPS
WITH MINS LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUN...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW SO MOST OF SNE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.  BEST CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS N ZONES AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE GRIDS.  SUN WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH 2M TEMPS SUGGESTING MAXES IN LOW TO MID 70S.

MON THROUGH WED...STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.  MAX TEMPS MON/TUE LIKELY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND MORE PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AT NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR.  SOME MODERATION BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...VFR...BUT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE ME COAST WILL SLIP
SE INTO BOS-HYA-ACK AND POSSIBLY PVD THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
HOVER AROUND 4 KFT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS 025-030 KFT ALSO POSSIBLE HYA-
ACK 17-21Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. DECENT N/NE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
HYA AND ACK.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED IFR/MVFR IN GROUND FOG PATCHES...ESPECIALLY
KEEN-KORE VCNTY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

FRIDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT FOG FRI
NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY LATE MORNING...WITH N WINDS
INCREASING TO 25 OR 30 KT IN GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NE TONIGHT.
EXPECT STEEP CHOPPY SEAS IN CAPE COD BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SEAWARD MOVING TIDE AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. LIKEWISE FOR BUZZARDS
BAY WITH INBOUND TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN
AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BUT MAY STILL GUST UP TO
20 KTS FRI EVENING...OTHERWISE 10-15 KTS.  SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN 5-6 FT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS BECOMING
WESTERLY SUN JUST AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...ANOTHER PULSE OF SCA N/NE WINDS WITH G25 KTS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS WILL BUILD
UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 181325
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
925 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE TRI-STATE AREA
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...EACH FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AREA OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
MORNING FCST ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE TO ZFP PLANNED. WILL UPDATE
AFM/PFM/FTP BASED ON LATEST HOURLY OBS.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND NEARLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND OFFSHORE LOW. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A FEW STRATOCU WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
TODAY...OTHERWISE SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
SURFACE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEAN TROF WILL RESIDE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WESTERLIES
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRI BUILDS EAST OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EVE...BUT ITS RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SW
INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. 85H TEMPS OF 6 TO 8C
WILL ONLY SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...SOME 5
TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

NE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE E AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE FRI AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...CLOUDS AND PCPN IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUN. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH
DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

MORNING LOWS FRI WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN METRO NY...TO THE
40S IN THE SUBURBS. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND
WEST MAY EVEN GET INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR A BRIEF TIME. NOT
EXPECTING FROST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR
SAT MORNING...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PERSISTENT NE FLOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEASONABLE
AND THEN BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.
FOR THE TIME BEING...KEEPING CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IS TYPICAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF SEPTEMBER...
THE OVERNIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FEATURE A BIT OF A CHILL IN THE
AIR...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY AND URBANIZED SECTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF CANADA
TODAY AND TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING MAXIMUM
HEATING (MIXING) AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS LIGHTEN BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR CLOUDS...FEW TO SCATTERED CU AND AC THIS MORNING...THEN
FEW CU THROUGH THE DAY.

BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WILL ABATE...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO AIRPORTS (HEAT ISLAND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MIXING AT NIGHT).
EXPECT 10 TO 13 KTS KEWR/KLGA/KJFK AND NEAR TO JUST UNDER 10 KTS
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE SUN WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRES RETURNS MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND WEAKEN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR OVER WARMER WATER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONFINED TO OCEAN WATERS...AND EASTERN LI
SOUND...PECONIC/GARDINERS BAY.

AS THE HIGH PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FEET OR
MORE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS DUE TO FETCH. AS SUCH...SMALL CRAFT ADV
POSTED FOR OCEAN WATERS AND ERN LI SOUND...PECONIC/GARDINERS BAY
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE OCEAN THROUGH
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR SEAS AT THAT TIME.

EASTERLY FLOW PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER WINDS LIGHTEN
FURTHER AS THE HIGH NEARS SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN...AND THUS AN INCREASE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KOKX 181132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
732 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE TRI-STATE AREA
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...EACH FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AREA OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING.
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MORE OR LESS BRIDGE ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT. WHILE THE FRONT
IS OF MODERATE INTENSITY...THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND THUS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE
BORDER OF NRN NY STATE THIS EVENING.

DRY...NEARLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND OFFSHORE LOW. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL BE A FEW STRATOCU WITH THE COLD ADVECTION TODAY...OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
SURFACE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEAN TROF WILL RESIDE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WESTERLIES
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRI BUILDS EAST OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EVE...BUT ITS RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SW
INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. 85H TEMPS OF 6 TO 8C
WILL ONLY SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...SOME 5
TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

NE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE E AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE FRI AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...CLOUDS AND PCPN IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUN. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH
DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

MORNING LOWS FRI WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN METRO NY...TO THE
40S IN THE SUBURBS. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND
WEST MAY EVEN GET INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR A BRIEF TIME. NOT
EXPECTING FROST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR
SAT MORNING...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PERSISTENT NE FLOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEASONABLE
AND THEN BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.
FOR THE TIME BEING...KEEPING CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IS TYPICAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF SEPTEMBER...
THE OVERNIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FEATURE A BIT OF A CHILL IN THE
AIR...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY AND URBANIZED SECTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF CANADA
TODAY AND TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING MAXIMUM
HEATING (MIXING) AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS LIGHTEN BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR CLOUDS...FEW TO SCATTERED CU AND AC THIS MORNING...THEN
FEW CU THROUGH THE DAY.

BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WILL ABATE...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO AIRPORTS (HEAT ISLAND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MIXING AT NIGHT).
EXPECT 10 TO 13 KTS KEWR/KLGA/KJFK AND NEAR TO JUST UNDER 10 KTS
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE SUN WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRES RETURNS MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND WEAKEN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR OVER WARMER WATER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONFINED TO OCEAN WATERS...AND EASTERN LI
SOUND...PECONIC/GARDINERS BAY.

AS THE HIGH PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FEET OR
MORE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS DUE TO FETCH. AS SUCH...SMALL CRAFT ADV
POSTED FOR OCEAN WATERS AND ERN LI SOUND...PECONIC/GARDINERS BAY
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE OCEAN THROUGH
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR SEAS AT THAT TIME.

EASTERLY FLOW PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER WINDS LIGHTEN
FURTHER AS THE HIGH NEARS SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN...AND THUS AN INCREASE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KBOX 181126
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED BOS-ORH-BAF AS OF 11Z AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE COAST 14-16Z.

WE UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP TO ADD MORE CLOUDS TO EASTERN NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF BKN SC.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY MILD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...NORTHERLY
CONTINENTAL FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE COOLER
AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID
60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOWER 70S OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL
PLAIN...EXCEPT UPPER 60S EAST COASTAL MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED CLOSER TO THE COAST. DELTA
T VALUES AROUND 13C BETWEEN THE OCEAN AND 850 MILLIBARS...AND WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO FORM DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT A FAIRLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NPWBOX FOR
DETAILS.

FRIDAY...A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS THE
REGION. H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +5 AND +7 CELSIUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND...EXCEPT NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.  ONLY CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  TEMPS AVERAGING BELOW
NORMAL WITH WARMEST DAY SUN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS COASTAL LOW LURKS OFFSHORE.  PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED
FRI NIGHT AND A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NW ZONES MAY ALSO SEE SOME
FROST AS MINS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXCEPT CLOSE TO 50 BID/ACK/OUTER CAPE.

SAT LOOKS LIKE A MOSUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF SNE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOUDS FROM OFFSHORE STORM.  GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REACHING CAPE/ISLANDS AND SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WITH PT-MOCLDY SKIES CAPE/ISLANDS.  MOST CLOUDS ACK AND A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH/EAST OF ACK. TEMPS 65-70.

SAT NIGHT...LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE PT-MOCLDY SKIES PERSISTING
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS IN NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER NW ZONES AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.  MILDER TEMPS
WITH MINS LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUN...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW SO MOST OF SNE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.  BEST CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS N ZONES AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE GRIDS.  SUN WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH 2M TEMPS SUGGESTING MAXES IN LOW TO MID 70S.

MON THROUGH WED...STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.  MAX TEMPS MON/TUE LIKELY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND MORE PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AT NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR.  SOME MODERATION BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. 06Z GFS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE BKN SC AROUND 4K FT
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SE OF BOS-PVD BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR
CIGS 025-030 KFT ALSO POSSIBLE HYA-ACK 17-21Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH. DECENT N/NE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY
PRODUCE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS TODAY...ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED IFR/MVFR IN GROUND FOG PATCHES...ESPECIALLY
KEEN-KORE VCNTY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

FRIDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT FOG FRI
NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY LATE
MORNING...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BUT MAY STILL GUST UP TO
20 KTS FRI EVENING...OTHERWISE 10-15 KTS.  SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN 5-6 FT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS BECOMING
WESTERLY SUN JUST AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...ANOTHER PULSE OF SCA N/NE WINDS WITH G25 KTS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS WILL BUILD
UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 181104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A MODERATING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST FROM CANADA...THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FROST/FREEZE FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DECOUPLE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

AT THIS TIME THE SET UP IN TERMS OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
COUPLED WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AND AS A
RESULT EXPECT THAT THE GROWING SEASON WILL LIKELY END TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MUCH OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S IN THIS AREA WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE THUS
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM
FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...CENTRAL TACONICS...OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES HAVE ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY WITH LOWS 33 TO 36 DEGREES. H8 TEMPS THIS EVENING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1-2C NORTH TO 5-6C SOUTH ACROSS FA AND
WITH CENTER OF 1030 MB HIGH JUST NORTH OF FA...THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. AT THIS POINT THE ONLY
AREAS WHICH MAY BE SPARED FROM ANY FROST AT ALL WOULD BE THE URBAN
AREAS WITHIN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY (ALTHOUGH RURAL AREAS MAY HAVE SOME FROST WITH
MID 30S POSSIBLE) AS WELL AS AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO BODIES OF
WATER. NPW AND HWO WITH THIS INFO HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNNY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN TODAY
AND SIMILAR TEMPS AS WAA ALOFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY EXCEPT IN MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LESS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF FA AND AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE TEMPS 36 OR BELOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN
HWO AS GROWING SEASON IN MUCH OF THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE DONE
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO START AS H8
TEMPS RISE TO 10-12 C AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOUTH WINDS UNDER
10 MPH EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH FA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH FRONT AND FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FA WITH
NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. THUS HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY
WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO THE COAST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS VEER WEST TO NORTH AND DIMINISH. EXPECT
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW OF COOL AIR OVER THE
WARM LAKE. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED TIME WISE AS WELL
AS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. ELSEWHERE THINGS SHOULD BE
DRY. RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HIGHS MONDAY A BIT CHILLY...UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE LOW 70S SOUTH...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE MID 60S
TO THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.  LOWS WILL BE 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
GRADUALLY WARM TO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE RESULT THAT RADIATION FOG WAS RATHER LIMITED. GLENS
FALLS WAS DOWN TO UNDER 2 MILES AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PITTSFIELD WAS DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR A FEW MINUTES. THE
CEILING AT KGFL WAS MVFR AT 09Z BUT OTHERWISE METAR SITES IN THE
AREA WERE VFR. WINDS WERE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WILL PICK UP
TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY MID MORNING AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY LATE
EVENING EXCEPT IN A FEW AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL CAUSE
NORTH/SOUTH FUNNELING.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS AS THE HIGH ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER TREES ARE STILL IN FULL LEAF...
THE GROUND IS STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST...NIGHTS ARE LONG...AND
BODIES OF WATER ARE STILL WARM. AS A RESULT VISIBILITY WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS
AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. ALL THREE TAF SITES COULD BE IMPACTED...
BUT THE ONE MOST LIKELY TO BE IS GLENS FALLS /KGFL/. IF THE WINDS
AT KALB ARE CALM FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTH
OF THE AIRPORT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE FLIGHT PATH. THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING THE FOG OVER THE AIRPORT. THE TERRAIN
NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE /KPOU/ ALSO TENDS TO FAVOR FOG IF WINDS ARE
CALM SINCE COOL AIR DRAINS DOWN THE WAPPINGER VALLEY TO THE
AIRPORT.  AT THIS TIME WE WILL ONLY FORECAST KGFL TO GO IFR
WITH THE OTHER TWO MVFR...BUT KPOU WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL
AND WITH THE RIGHT LOCAL CONDITIONS KALB COULD GO IFR AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE
                   LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT
TODAY...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 30 TO
50 PERCENT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-050-051-053-058-061-063.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-041>043-054-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KOKX 180901
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
501 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE TRI-STATE AREA
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...EACH FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AREA OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MORE OR LESS BRIDGE ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT. WHILE THE FRONT
IS OF MODERATE INTENSITY...THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND THUS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE
BORDER OF NRN NY STATE THIS EVENING.

DRY...NEARLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND OFFSHORE LOW. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL BE A FEW STRATOCU WITH THE COLD ADVECTION TODAY...OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
SURFACE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEAN TROF WILL RESIDE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WESTERLIES
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRI BUILDS EAST OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EVE...BUT ITS RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SW
INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. 85H TEMPS OF 6 TO 8C
WILL ONLY SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...SOME 5
TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

NE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE E AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE FRI AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...CLOUDS AND PCPN IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUN. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH
DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

MORNING LOWS FRI WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN METRO NY...TO THE
40S IN THE SUBURBS. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND
WEST MAY EVEN GET INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR A BRIEF TIME. NOT
EXPECTING FROST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR
SAT MORNING...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PERSISTENT NE FLOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEASONABLE
AND THEN BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.
FOR THE TIME BEING...KEEPING CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IS TYPICAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF SEPTEMBER...
THE OVERNIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FEATURE A BIT OF A CHILL IN THE
AIR...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY AND URBANIZED SECTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF CANADA
TODAY AND TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS DURING MAXIMUM HEATING...COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS LIGHTEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR CLOUDS...SCATTERED CU AND AC WITH THE FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS WILL ABATE...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO AIRPORTS. EXPECT 10 TO 13 KTS KEWR/KLGA/KJFK
AND NEAR TO JUST UNDER 10 KTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUN WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRES RETURNS MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND WEAKEN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR OVER WARMER WATER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONFINED TO OCEAN WATERS...AND EASTERN LI
SOUND...PECONIC/GARDINERS BAY.

AS THE HIGH PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FEET OR
MORE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS DUE TO FETCH. AS SUCH...SMALL CRAFT ADV
POSTED FOR OCEAN WATERS AND ERN LI SOUND...PECONIC/GARDINERS BAY
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE OCEAN THROUGH
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR SEAS AT THAT TIME.

EASTERLY FLOW PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER WINDS LIGHTEN
FURTHER AS THE HIGH NEARS SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN...AND THUS AN INCREASE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ330-340.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KBOX 180820
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
420 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE WERE DISSIPATING AS WELL AS THE CLOUD
SHIELD. ELSEWHERE FOG PATCHES HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS CONTINUED TO COVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW CLOUDS OVER NANTUCKET FINALLY
DISSIPATED AROUND 07Z.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT. FAIRLY MILD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...NORTHERLY
CONTINENTAL FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE
COOLER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED CLOSER TO THE COAST. DELTA
T VALUES AROUND 13C BETWEEN THE OCEAN AND 850 MILLIBARS...AND WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO FORM DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT A FAIRLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NPWBOX FOR
DETAILS.

FRIDAY...A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS THE
REGION. H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +5 AND +7 CELSIUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND...EXCEPT NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.  ONLY CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  TEMPS AVERAGING BELOW
NORMAL WITH WARMEST DAY SUN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS COASTAL LOW LURKS OFFSHORE.  PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED
FRI NIGHT AND A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NW ZONES MAY ALSO SEE SOME
FROST AS MINS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXCEPT CLOSE TO 50 BID/ACK/OUTER CAPE.

SAT LOOKS LIKE A MOSUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF SNE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOUDS FROM OFFSHORE STORM.  GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REACHING CAPE/ISLANDS AND SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WITH PT-MOCLDY SKIES CAPE/ISLANDS.  MOST CLOUDS ACK AND A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH/EAST OF ACK. TEMPS 65-70.

SAT NIGHT...LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE PT-MOCLDY SKIES PERSISTING
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS IN NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER NW ZONES AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.  MILDER TEMPS
WITH MINS LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUN...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW SO MOST OF SNE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.  BEST CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS N ZONES AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE GRIDS.  SUN WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH 2M TEMPS SUGGESTING MAXES IN LOW TO MID 70S.

MON THROUGH WED...STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.  MAX TEMPS MON/TUE LIKELY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND MORE PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AT NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR.  SOME MODERATION BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. BATCH OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS FROM 015-030 KFT MAY FORM
BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS KHYA- KACK.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED IFR/MVFR IN GROUND FOG PATCHES...ESPECIALLY
KEEN-KORE VCNTY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

FRIDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT FOG FRI
NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY LATE
MORNING...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BUT MAY STILL GUST UP TO
20 KTS FRI EVENING...OTHERWISE 10-15 KTS.  SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN 5-6 FT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS BECOMING
WESTERLY SUN JUST AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...ANOTHER PULSE OF SCA N/NE WINDS WITH G25 KTS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS WILL BUILD
UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 180800
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A MODERATING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST FROM CANADA...THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FROST/FREEZE FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DECOUPLE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

AT THIS TIME THE SET UP IN TERMS OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
COUPLED WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AND AS A
RESULT EXPECT THAT THE GROWING SEASON WILL LIKELY END TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MUCH OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S IN THIS AREA WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE THUS
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM
FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...CENTRAL TACONICS...OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES HAVE ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY WITH LOWS 33 TO 36 DEGREES. H8 TEMPS THIS EVENING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1-2C NORTH TO 5-6C SOUTH ACROSS FA AND
WITH CENTER OF 1030 MB HIGH JUST NORTH OF FA...THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. AT THIS POINT THE ONLY
AREAS WHICH MAY BE SPARED FROM ANY FROST AT ALL WOULD BE THE URBAN
AREAS WITHIN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY (ALTHOUGH RURAL AREAS MAY HAVE SOME FROST WITH
MID 30S POSSIBLE) AS WELL AS AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO BODIES OF
WATER. NPW AND HWO WITH THIS INFO HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNNY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN TODAY
AND SIMILAR TEMPS AS WAA ALOFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY EXCEPT IN MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LESS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF FA AND AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE TEMPS 36 OR BELOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN
HWO AS GROWING SEASON IN MUCH OF THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE DONE
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO START AS H8
TEMPS RISE TO 10-12 C AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOUTH WINDS UNDER
10 MPH EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH FA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH FRONT AND FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FA WITH
NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. THUS HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY
WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO THE COAST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS VEER WEST TO NORTH AND DIMINISH. EXPECT
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW OF COOL AIR OVER THE
WARM LAKE. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED TIME WISE AS WELL
AS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. ELSEWHERE THINGS SHOULD BE
DRY. RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HIGHS MONDAY A BIT CHILLY...UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE LOW 70S SOUTH...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE MID 60S
TO THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.  LOWS WILL BE 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
GRADUALLY WARM TO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR IN A FEW SPOTS IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER
ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE GEORGE SOUTH TO POUGHKEEPSIE ALONG AND CLOSE
TO THE HUDSON RIVER AND TRIBUTARY VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE
SCHOHARIE...ESOPUS...AND RONDOUT VALLEYS IN THE CATSKILLS AND
THE CONNECTICUT...DEERFIELD...HOOSIC...AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS IN
ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER THIS AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. FARTHER
WEST...OVER THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS...
A DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN
1100 AND 1300 GMT. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST
OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEARLY SO BEFORE DAWN...THEN
BECOME NORTHERLY...INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS BY MID
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY
NOONTIME AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT AND WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER WHICH ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM. ALL THREE TAF
SITES COULD BE IMPACTED...BUT THE ONE MOST LIKELY TO BE IS
GLENS FALLS /KGFL/. IF THE WINDS AT KALB ARE CALM FOG IS
LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTH OF THE AIRPORT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE FLIGHT PATH. A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND COULD BRING THE FOG OVER THE AIRPORT. AS FAR AS
POUGHKEEPSIE /KPOU/ IS CONCERNED...THE AMOUNT OF FOG WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OR ALL
OF THE NIGHT HEAVY FOG COULD FORM THERE AS COOL AIR DRAINS
DOWN THE WAPPINGER VALLEY TO THE FIELD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE
                   LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT
TODAY...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 30 TO
50 PERCENT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-050-051-053-058-061-063.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-041>043-054-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 180728
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
U.S. CANADIAN BORDER. 850-925MB MOISTURE FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL HAVE REDUCED
SKY COVER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS GIVEN RECENT TRENDS. IN ADDITION
HAVE LOWERED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS AND MODIFIED SKY COVER DOWNWARDS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POPULATED WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AND
MADE SOME ADDITIONAL SKY GRID MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THE AIRMASS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER OVER LAND SUPPORT
AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. MIXING WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND CAPE/ISLANDS APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT 18Z AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD...WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 950 MB AT 00Z. SO WE EXPECT
INCREASINGLY GUSTING WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
OFFSHORE...AND CONTINUING ON THE CAPE AN ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL START AT 8-10C AND COOL BY LATE AFTERNOON TO 5-6C.
THE LATE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S.
SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LONG
ENOUGH TO TOP OUT AROUND 70 OR 72.

NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPS /SST/ ARE FORECAST AROUND 17-18C EAST OF MASS...WITH
4-5C AT 850 MB. THAT MAKES THE LAYER LAPSE RATE ABOUT 13C...
BORDERLINE FOR CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ALL ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE INTERIOR TO RADIATE...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH COAST. THIS WOULD SET UP FROST
CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN/WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. WE ARE MENTIONING AREAS OF FROST IN ALL AREAS WHERE
GRID TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AT 36F OR COLDER...AND WIDESPREAD
FROST WHERE THOSE TEMPS ARE FORECAST BELOW 32F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.  ONLY CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  TEMPS AVERAGING BELOW
NORMAL WITH WARMEST DAY SUN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS COASTAL LOW LURKS OFFSHORE.  PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED
FRI NIGHT AND A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NW ZONES MAY ALSO SEE SOME
FROST AS MINS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.  OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXCEPT CLOSE TO 50 BID/ACK/OUTER CAPE.

SAT LOOKS LIKE A MOSUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF SNE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOUDS FROM OFFSHORE STORM.  GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REACHING CAPE/ISLANDS AND SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WITH PT-MOCLDY SKIES CAPE/ISLANDS.  MOST CLOUDS ACK AND A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH/EAST OF ACK. TEMPS 65-70.

SAT NIGHT...LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE PT-MOCLDY SKIES PERSISTING
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS IN NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER NW ZONES AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.  MILDER TEMPS
WITH MINS LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUN...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW SO MOST OF SNE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.  BEST CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS N ZONES AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE GRIDS.  SUN WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH 2M TEMPS SUGGESTING MAXES IN LOW TO MID 70S.

MON THROUGH WED...STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.  MAX TEMPS MON/TUE LIKELY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND MORE PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AT NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR.  SOME MODERATION BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR ALL AREAS THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 06Z AND
UNTIL 12Z. VFR ALL AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT FOG FRI
NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND AND SEAS.
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH MORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SOME MIXING SHOULD BRING WIND GUSTS
TO 25-30 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. THE STEADY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON
THE OUTER WATERS TO 5 TO 8 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THIS IN MIND...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
BUT BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY STARTING AROUND 18Z THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BUT MAY STILL GUST UP TO
20 KTS FRI EVENING...OTHERWISE 10-15 KTS.  SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN 5-6 FT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS BECOMING
WESTERLY SUN JUST AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...ANOTHER PULSE OF SCA N/NE WINDS WITH G25 KTS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS WILL BUILD
UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC

000
FXUS61 KOKX 180529
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
129 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...MOVING OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE METROPOLITAN AREAS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A THIN CIRRUS CEILING. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH CLOSE TO IDEAL CONDITIONS. HAVE UNDERCUT
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED...SO ONLY SOME STRATO CU WITH
THE FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA THU MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING
MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COOLER AIR LAGS A
BIT BEHIND THE FRONT SO HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
TODAY...LOWER TO MID 70S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
THU BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

A MUCH COOLER AND NOTICEABLE AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT AND
FRI. WHILE THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH
DIRECTLY UNDER THE HIGH...WE WILL BE SPARED SOME AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT KEEPING NE WINDS UP OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...LOWER 50S IN URBAN AREAS.

WE`LL GET A TASTE OF FALL ON FRI AS H85 TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN 6C
AND 8C. THE NE FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING JUST BELOW THIS LEVEL
YIELDING DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI AND CONTINUES EASTWARD ALLOWING THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX FRI AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY ONLY SOME CIRRUS
FROM TIME TO TIME. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THU
NIGHT AND A RETURN TO A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ON SAT
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL
THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED...AND LACKING IN DYNAMICAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THEREFORE EXPECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDS...BUT REMAIN DRY.

ONE CAVEAT...WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...MAY HAVE MORE INSTABILITY CLOUDS DEVELOPING THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AND PERHAPS WITH SOME SPRINKLES TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND POSITION OF HIGH WILL
NOT PUT IN FORECAST YET.

TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE SEASONABLE ON SUN WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM A PERSISTENT NE
CAD FLOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEASONABLE AND THEN BELOW
NORMAL. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS AS
STATED ABOVE. AS IS TYPICAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF
SEPTEMBER...THE OVERNIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FEATURE A BIT OF A CHILL IN
THE AIR...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY AND URBANIZED SECTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF CANADA
TODAY AND TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS DURING MAXIMUM HEATING...COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS LIGHTEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR CLOUDS...SCATTERED CU AND AC WITH THE FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS WILL ABATE...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO AIRPORTS. EXPECT 10 TO 13 KTS KEWR/KLGA/KJFK
AND NEAR TO JUST UNDER 10 KTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUN WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRES RETURNS MON.

&&

.MARINE...
(WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT)
WINDS AND SEAS ON TARGET FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL NOT UPDATE THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HAVE PUT UP AN SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES...THE EASTERN SOUND AND
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS BEGINNING THU EVENING. SCA WINDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. SEAS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO PUT SCA UP TO THE REMAINING ZONES AS
IT APPEARS MARGINAL...SO LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-EVALUATE. HAVE ONLY
CARRIED THE SCA THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR NOW...SINCE IT WOULD BE
GOING INTO THE FOURTH PERIOD. MID SHIFT WILL LIKELY EXTEND IT INTO
FRI.

THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRI...CONTINUING
EASTWARD ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO THE
WEEKEND ON THE OCEAN.

(SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON)
SCA EASTERLY SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT/SUN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS ON SUN. GENERALLY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH DEVELOPING PERSISTENT NE FLOW AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRES SLIDES SE INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 180526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR THURSDAY AND LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT IS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. WILL HAVE NA INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
MODEL GUIDANCES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON
THURSDAY ON A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO FALL FROM +10 TO ABOUT +4C AT KALB (EVEN A TOUCH LOWER
ACCORDING TO THE GFS)...BY 00Z THURSDAY. EVEN WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH OUT OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AROUND POUGHKEEPSIE.

THE STAGE WILL SET FOR OUR COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON COME FRIDAY
MORNING. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR NORTH. THE SKY SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AS THE FLOW CONTINUES NORTHERLY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK OF JUST
BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
MID 30S AND FROST IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY
MENTIONED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM A BIT ON FRIDAY...BACK TO ABOUT +10C.
HOWEVER...WE ARE IN THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE
HAS A HARDER TIME FULLY MIXING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE WILL ONLY MIX TO ABOUT 900MB...POSSIBLY UP TO 875MB.
THEREFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT WORKOUT TO ADDING +14C
TO THE H850 TEMPERATURES...PROBABLY WORK OUT CLOSER TO ADDING +12C
TO THE H850 TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN...WE TOOK A BLEND OF ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH LOOK TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS CHILLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
A MAV/MEX BLEND ACCEPTED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER SEASONABLE /PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AVERAGING 8-10 DEGREES C AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN...WOULD EXPECT
VALLEYS MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT
THERMAL GRADIENT WITH IT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SCARCE AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SO
WOULD EXPECT IT TO BY A DRY PASSAGE /AS IS COMMON THIS TIME OF
YEAR./ HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLT CHC POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA IN CASE IT/S ABLE TO SPIT OUT A SHOWER SOMEWHERE.

BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS RIDGING
AT UPPER LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE DRY AND
COMFORTABLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ONLY VISIBLY DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A CUTOFF DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA/GULF OF MAINE WHICH SITS THERE FOR A FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF IF THIS PANS OUT OR NOT...IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO ALLOW THE RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...KEEPING US HIGH
AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...VISIBLITY IS LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR IN A FEW SPOTS IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER
ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE GEORGE SOUTH TO POUGHKEEPSIE ALONG AND CLOSE
TO THE HUDSON RIVER AND TRIBUTARY VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE
SCHOHARIE...ESOPUS...AND RONDOUT VALLEYS IN THE CATSKILLS AND
THE CONNECTICUT...DEERFIELD...HOOSIC...AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS IN
ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER THIS AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. FARTHER
WEST...OVER THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS...
A DECK OF LOW AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN
1100 AND 1300 GMT. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST
OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEARLY SO BEFORE DAWN...THEN
BECOME NORTHERLY...INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS BY MID
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY
NOONTIME AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT AND WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER WHICH ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM. ALL THREE TAF
SITES COULD BE IMPACTED...BUT THE ONE MOST LIKELY TO BE IS
GLENS FALLS /KGFL/. IF THE WINDS AT KALB ARE CALM FOG IS
LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTH OF THE AIRPORT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE FLIGHT PATH. A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND COULD BRING THE FOG OVER THE AIRPORT. AS FAR AS
POUGHKEEPSIE /KPOU/ IS CONCERNED...THE AMOUNT OF FOG WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OR ALL
OF THE NIGHT HEAVY FOG COULD FORM THERE AS COOL AIR DRAINS
DOWN THE WAPPINGER VALLEY TO THE FIELD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE
                   LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
SUN...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY FANFARE
OVERNIGHT. MIGHT BRING A FEW CLOUDS AND SPITS TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
SOME DEW WILL FORM BUT NOT THE USUAL AMOUNT SINCE THE CLOUDS AND A
LITTLE BREEZE MIGHT DRY SOME OF IT UP. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
US DRY TOMORROW AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
MAINLY THE 30S BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FULL RECOVERY
WITH LOTS OF DEW...AND OR FROST CAN BE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY...5 TO
10 MPH FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
FORECAST. RIVERS ARE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IAA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...RCK