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The Asian south-west monsoon arrives on time. Gujarat waiting for rainfall and Pakistan remains dry.
The southwest monsoon officially arrived at the southern tip of India on June 1st. The monsoon's progress was generally satisfactory covering most parts of southern, eastern and central India by June 10. The monsoon progress stalled briefly, causing some concern for northwestern states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. However, in the last few days rainfall amounts of 15 to 35 mm have fallen in areas, except for Gujarat. Gujarat and Rajasthan have faced serious water shortages during the past several months. However, the severity of the situation was somewhat lessened by pre-monsoon rains which fell in both states. Unfortunately, Gujarat has received the least amount of rains to date. If this pattern continues India's total production level of cotton, peanut, and millet will be reduced as the state is historically a significant producer of all three crops. The India Meteorological Organization reports for the week ending June 7, 28 of the 35 weather subdivisions received normal or above normal rainfall compared with 12 subdivisions during the corresponding period in 1999. With the exception of Gujarat the India monsoon is performing satisfactory. If the monsoon covers the remaining Indian states with sufficient precipitation, as appears likely, it will be the thirteenth normal monsoon in succession.
Pakistan remains dry overall with occasional rains in the western areas of the Punjab. This lack of precipitation combined with the low temperatures in the snow melt catchment areas have generated worries regarding irrigation availability for this seasons cotton crop. To date irrigation supplies have been sufficient to plant in nearly all targeted areas, however erratic irrigation scheduling resulted in a longer planting window and subsequently widely varying stages of development of the current crop.
Bangladesh has received near-normal precipitation to date and this will benefit August planted Aman rice crop. Last season Bangladesh produced a record rice crop, with the biggest increasing coming from the November planted Boro crop.
| South-west monsoon arrives on June 1, 2000 and moves northward on the sub-continent. | ||
| Pre-Monsoon
Rainfall Percentages May 20 to 30 |
Actual Precipitation Amounts as Percent of 30 year normal. | Arrival Rainfall Percentages June 1 to June 10 |
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| Analysis Products: FAS-PECAD | Analysis Products: FAS-PECAD | |
Monsoon Background: The southwest monsoon typically enters the mainland over Kerala in the first week of June. It moves northward to cover the whole of India by mid-July. It starts withdrawing from mid-September. The southwest monsoon is critical to the development of Indian agricultural production. The southwest monsoon provides 80 percent of India's total precipitation and is critical to the development of its major food and commercial crops such as rice, coarse grains, pulses, peanuts, soybeans and cotton. Planting of the largely rainfed kharif (monsoon season) crops, which include rice, sorghum, corn, millet, peanut, soybean and cotton will begin after the monsoon firmly establishes itself over the major producing states and planting will continue through July and early August. Farmers in the northern rice surplus states of Punjab and Haryana, where irrigation is available, often complete rice transplanting prior to the monsoon arrival.. This season's pre-monsoon, or early season rains in central, in south and east India should provide a favorable early season planting conditions for rice, soybeans, sorghum and corn. The country's economy is to a large extent dependent on monsoon rains.
For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.
| Pre-Monsoon Rainfall Percentages May 20 to 30 | top of page |
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| Analysis Products: FAS-PECAD |
| Arrival Rainfall Percentages June 1 to June 10 | top of page |
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| Analysis Products: FAS-PECAD |
