World Fresh Citrus Situation

World Fresh Citrus Situation

Worldwide consumption and exports of citrus are forecast to decrease in 1998/99, as citrus harvests in the largest Northern Hemisphere producing countries are expected to sharply decline from the previous year. Citrus production in selected countries in the Northern Hemisphere in 1998/99 is forecast at 42.5 million metric tons, down 16 percent from last year’s record harvest. Selected Northern Hemisphere country citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast to decrease 9 percent to a 6.4 million tons, due primarily to expected smaller orange harvests in the United States, Spain, and Mexico. Significantly smaller exports of fresh oranges are expected from Spain and the United States and also lower shipments of Spanish tangerines. U.S. fresh citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 942,000 tons, 20 percent below the previous year’s record shipments. The amount of oranges expected to be processed by Northern Hemisphere countries in 1998/99 is forecast at 14.2 million tons, 18 percent below the previous year’s record level. Less citrus is expected to be processed because of the smaller Florida orange harvest.

Northern Hemisphere

Total Northern Hemisphere citrus production in 1998/99 in major producing countries is estimated at a record 42.5 million tons, down 16 percent from the record 1997/98 crop. Northern Hemisphere orange production in 1998/99 is forecast at 23 million tons, down 20 percent from 1997/98 based on decreases in the United States, Mexico, Morocco, and Spain. Tangerine production is forecast at 12.1 million tons, 14 percent below last year’s output. This smaller production is due mainly to decreases in China, Spain, and Japan. Selected country grapefruit production is forecast at 3.3 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous year’s output due to smaller Mexican production. Production of lemons and other citrus, mostly limes, is forecast to decrease slightly from the previous year’s output.

Total fresh citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 6.4 million tons, down 9 percent from the 1997/98 volume. Decreases in Spanish orange and tangerine exports and lower shipments of U.S. oranges are expected to account for most of this decline.

United States

Total citrus production in the United States in 1998/99 is forecast at 12.7 million tons, 23 percent below the previous year’s record harvest. Orange production in 1998/99 is forecast at 9.2 million tons, down 27 percent from last year’s output. Production is forecast to decrease in both Florida (where most of the oranges are processed) and California (where most of the oranges are for fresh consumption and export) and for most varieties of oranges. Florida orange output is down from last year’s record harvest, while California production is down sharply due to adverse weather. Grapefruit production in 1998/99 is forecast at 2.4 million tons, approximately the same as last year’s output.

A freeze in December in California’s San Joaquin Valley severely reduced the amount of Navel and Valencia oranges and lemons harvested in that area. California’s all orange crop estimate decreased by 39 percent after the freeze and this forecast is 49 percent below the previous year’s output. Although California accounts for about 25 percent of total U.S. orange output, California accounts for most U.S. fresh orange exports. Total U.S. lemon production is forecast to be 10 percent lower because of the freeze.

Total U.S. citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 942,000 million tons, down 20 percent from the previous year’s shipments. Orange exports in 1998/99 are forecast to fall by 38 percent because of reduced supplies from California. U.S. grapefruit exports in 1998/99, on the other hand, are forecast to increase by 6 percent to about 415,000 tons.

U.S. citrus for processing in 1998/99 is forecast at 9.7 million tons, down from last year’s record 12.3 million tons, based on the lower Florida orange forecast harvest.

Mexico

Mexican citrus production is forecast at 3.8 million tons in 1998/99, 29 percent below last year’s output. Unfavorably dry weather conditions during the first part of 1998 account for much of the decrease. Orange production in 1998/99 is forecast at 2.5 million tons, down 36 percent from the previous year. Tangerine production is forecast at 190,000 tons, down 31 percent from last year’s production. Production of grapefruit, lemons, and limes are also forecast to decrease, 23, 48, and 1 percent, respectively.

Exports of oranges in 1998/99 are forecast at 9,000 tons, the same as the previous year. The United States is the largest export market for Mexican oranges. Mexican exporters continue to explore Asian markets such as Hong Kong and Japan.

Spain

The total Spanish citrus crop for 1998/99 is estimated at 4.8 million tons, 10 percent below last year’s output. Orange production is expected to decrease 13 percent and tangerines 12 percent, while lemons are forecast to increase by 7 percent. A high incidence of Tristeza in many key producing areas is the primary reason for the expected decline in orange and tangerine production.

Spain is the world’s largest citrus exporter, accounting for approximately 47 percent of total Northern Hemisphere exports. Citrus exports are expected to decrease 9 percent in 1998/99 due to the smaller orange and tangerine production. The majority of Spanish citrus is exported to other European Union countries, accounting for 85 percent of total citrus exports. The bulk of these exports go to traditional markets such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

Italy

Italian citrus production is forecast to decrease by 16 percent from the previous year. This would mark the third straight year of decline since 1995/96. Unusually high temperatures during the summer of 1998 adversely affected the 1998/99 orange crop, reducing it to a forecast 1.65 million tons, a 20 percent drop from the 1997/98 year.

Italian imports of citrus continue to increase, with a positive trade balance remaining only in oranges. Most Italian imports are from Morocco and other Mediterranean countries and are transshipped through other EU countries. Italy maintains a ban on imports of non-EU citrus, other than grapefruit, due to phtyo-sanitary concerns.

Morocco

Morocco’s citrus production in 1998/99 is forecast at 1.2 million tons, a 22 percent decrease from last year’s bumper harvest. This decrease is mainly due to a low point of the citrus trees’ bearing cycle and problematic weather conditions during the flowering period in some areas. The citrus crop is forecast to be down for most growing areas, especially in the Souss and Gharb areas.

Citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 535,000 tons, 12 percent below the previous year’s shipments, based on the smaller orange crop. The European Union accounts for most of Morocco’s total orange exports. The proximity of the EU and the preferential duties to which Moroccan citrus are subject to upon entry will continue to make the EU appealing to Moroccan exporters. This market is the destination for most of Morocco’s top quality citrus, while second quality oranges are increasingly directed to Eastern Europe and Russia. The East European countries are less demanding in quality and thus are supplied with fruit that would normally go to the domestic market. The large 1997/98 crop was of lower quality than normal and exports to Russia were boosted three fold, to about 23 percent of total Moroccan exports. However, the Russian financial crisis is expected to negatively affect exports in the 1998/99 season.

Korea

The main citrus crop in Korea is tangerines. Tangerine production in 1998/99 is forecast at 525,000 tons, 20 percent below last year’s output. The reduction in production is mainly because the 1998/99 crop is considered in the off-year of the production cycle, though the sweetness and overall quality of the fruit is expected to be high.

Orange imports into Korea were liberalized on July 1, 1997, according to terms of the Record of Understanding signed between Korea and the United States under the Uruguay Round. Liberalization now means the market operates under a tariff rate quota system. In-quota orange imports in 1998 totaled 28,125 tons. The in-quota tariff rate for 1998 is 50 percent, while the out-quota rate is 79.4 percent. In May 1998, the Korean Food and Drug Administration conformed its chemical residue standards to those of the Codex Alimentarious, which has eased some of the restrictions on citrus imports.

The weak economy has left the Korean import market weak, though the market for top-quality oranges is still strong. In 1998/99, orange imports are projected at 40,000 tons. The United States dominates the Korean orange and grapefruit import markets accounting for about 99 percent of the market.

Japan

Total citrus production in 1998/99 is forecast at 1.56 million tons, 21 percent below the 1997/98 output and very similar to the 1996/97 harvest. Tangerine production, which accounts for most of the citrus production, is forecast at 1.4 million tons, down 22 percent from the previous year’s output. The lower production is due largely to unfavorable weather, high temperatures in spring and summer, and typhoons and heavy rain in late summer and early fall.

Japan’s total citrus imports in 1998/99 are forecast to increase by 8 percent to 477,000 tons. Fresh grapefruit is expected to account for much of the increase, while other citrus will remain at approximately 1997/98 levels. U.S. grapefruit exports to Japan are expected to rise in the 1998/99 marketing year, as marketers recover from short supplies of high-quality fruit from the year before.

The United States continues to be the main supplier of oranges, grapefruit, and lemons to Japan, though the United States continues to face competition from Australia and South Africa in the fresh orange market. Suppliers in these countries tend to ship after the main growing season for U.S. oranges, but may increasingly be encroaching on the traditional sales period for California fruit. This may especially characterize 1998/99 because of the reduction in California fresh orange supplies. South Africa generally supplies Navels and Valencias to the Japanese market from July through September, while Australia ships the same product from July through November. Spain began exporting oranges to Japan for the first time in 1997 and although sales are small, they continue to grow. Historically, Israel has been the United States’ major competitor in grapefruit exports to Japan. Israeli "Sweetie", a green-skinned grapefruit variety, exports reached 23,600 tons in 1997/98, up 14 percent from the previous year.

China

China’s citrus production in 1998/99 is forecast at 8.4 million tons, 7 percent below last year’s record output. Tangerine production is forecast to decrease by 13 percent, due to drought conditions in the southern provinces, though this is still 9 percent above the 1996/97 output. Orange production is forecast to increase to 2.4 million tons, 14 percent above 1997/98.

Total citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 203,000 tons, down slightly from last year’s shipments due to the financial problems in many of its Asian export markets. Tangerines account for about 94 percent of China’s citrus exports.

Although fresh citrus imports face phytosanitary barriers and high tariffs, substantial amounts of U.S. and South African Navel and Valencia oranges are reportedly transshipped through Hong Kong to Guagndong province, where they are sold on wholesale markets. China’s official orange imports totaled 12 tons in 1996/97 and are forecast at 38 tons in 1998/99.

Southern Hemisphere

It is too early to make reliable forecasts for the Southern Hemisphere countries for the 1998/99 season (harvest in 1999).

Total citrus production in selected countries in the Southern Hemisphere in 1997/98 (harvest in 1998) is forecast at 20.4 million tons. For Brazil, the 1997/98 fresh orange crop forecast is unchanged from previously reported. For changes regarding processed oranges and fresh orange consumption from last reported see orange juice feature in this circular. South Africa’s 1997/98 orange crop is forecast to be 7 percent higher than the previous year. South Africa exports fresh citrus to the European Union, United States, the Middle East, and Asia.

For further information on production, supply, distribution, and trade contact Mark Petry, Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, (202) 720-0897. For information on U.S. marketing opportunities, contact Ted Goldammer at (202) 720-8498

Last modified: Tuesday, May 08, 2001