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May 13, 2002
As harvest operations come to a close in southern Brazil, it is apparent that a remarkable soybean growing season has just been completed. Market observers are used to stories of record crops in the vast farming belt of central and southern Brazil, but this year proved unique in the degree to which soybean acreage expanded. Farmers heeded strong market signals favoring export-oriented soybeans and planted record crop acreage, reallocating land resources away from competing summer corn and cotton production. Total national soybean area is estimated to have surged by an unprecedented 2.0 million hectares, up 14 percent compared to the previous year’s record level. USDA currently forecasts 2001/02 soybean area at a record 15.9 million hectares, while soybean production is estimated at a record 43.5 million tons. National crop yield, however, is forecast slightly down from last year, owing to the effects of drought in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.
The incentive to plant additional soybeans proved irresistible across the growing region, with significant growth occurring in both major and minor producing areas. Based on preliminary data, the greatest increase appears to have been focused in the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, Parana, and Rio Grande do Sul, where either ample land was available or where corn production was being curtailed. The Center-West region in particular saw its share of national soybean area rise to 50 percent this year, continuing a decades-old trend of expansion.
Brazil’s soybean region recorded substantial rainfall throughout the entire growing season. Total accumulations were more substantial than last year, though drought did creep into the picture in the far southern states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina during the first half of the season. The overall weather pattern was nearly ideal, supporting rapid early growth and development of the crop and near-record yields. Total rainfall for the October-December period was below normal in a few key producing areas, but moisture accumulation mostly kept pace with or exceeded crop requirements. This pattern proved favorable for the bulk of the nation’s crop during the primary vegetative growth stages. Last year, by comparison, much more of the growing region was subject to below-normal rainfall and relatively dry early season growing conditions.
The rainfall pattern during the second half of the 2001/02 growing season also proved highly favorable, with timely rains in southern states allowing drought affected crops to recover. Very few areas experienced drought stress during the January-March period, though pockets of well below normal rainfall did occur in Santa Catarina, Parana, Sao Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Stored soil moisture and timely intermittent showers helped crops in these areas through the worst periods, while the vast majority of the soybean region benefited from near- to above-normal rainfall. Compared to last year, the Center-West states had far better rainfall, while those in the Center-South had lighter accumulations. Crops in virtually all areas were well supported with adequate moisture through the sensitive reproduction and pod-filling growth periods.
News of drought conditions negatively affecting crops in the Cerrado region of western Bahia were widespread as harvest operations progressed in February and March. Some reports indicated that crop yields had been reduced by 20-30 percent or more. USDA weather analysis, however, indicates the crop was well-supported with moisture through the vast majority of its growth cycle and should have yielded quite well. In particular, during the second half of the season when the crop was going through sensitive reproduction and filling stages, rainfall in excess of 20 inches was received. This was a far better result than the previous year, when the northeast drought began to deepen in severity. This year, 30 percent of the Bahia crop was reported harvested in March (maturing by late-February to mid-March) and a further 70 percent in April (maturing mid-March to mid-April.) USDA data obtained from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicate that rainfall and soil moisture supplies were adequate through early March, being boosted by well above-normal accumulations in January and moderate showers in February. The rainfall pattern was especially favorable when compared to last year, when the crop experienced limited showers from January to May. The 2000/01 crop yielded well despite receiving considerably lower rainfall throughout its reproductive cycle. USDA analysis indicates the Bahia soybean crop should yield above last year and produce record tonnage.
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