April 10, 2002

North Korea:  Mild Winter, Dry Spring Could Affect 2002/03 Crops

Summary

The winter of 2001/02 in North Korea has been characterized by above-normal temperatures and light precipitation, similar to the situation in northern China.  The 2002/03 winter wheat and barley crops, planted in fall 2001, broke dormancy earlier than normal.  Planting preparations for the 2002/03 summer crops, including potatoes, corn, other grain and oilseeds, and rice, will soon be under way.  Seasonal precipitation in western North Korea has been close to normal and soil moisture levels are fair to good, but eastern North Korea has been very dry since November and soil moisture is low.  As temperatures continue to rise, the need for additional rainfall to support normal crop development will increase.

In 2001/02, North Korea produced an estimated 1.35 million tons of rice (milled basis), 1.4 million tons of corn, and 100,000 tons of wheat, much less than domestic demand.  The main reason for the poor crop was a serious spring/early summer drought that lowered planted area and yield.  USDA will make its initial area and production estimates for North Korea's 2002/03 wheat and corn crops in May, and the first rice area and production estimate will be released in July.

Warm Winter

Average temperatures have been several degrees warmer than normal since January, in contrast to the winter of 2000/01, which was one of the coldest on record.  Average temperatures exceeded 5 degrees C, which is the threshold for winter crop emergence, in early March, several weeks ahead of schedule.  The abnormally warm temperatures accelerated the vegetative growth of winter wheat/barley and allowed farmers to push forward their preparations for summer-crop planting.  North Korea has a short growing season due to its northern latitude and high elevations, so early planting and establishment can improve yield prospects. 

Wet in West, Dry in East

Total precipitation for the 2001/02 winter season is below normal.  Mostly dry weather in November and December was followed by moderate-to-heavy snow in January and scattered rain/snow showers in February and March.  The greatest precipitation was in the northwest, where total rainfall for the season was above normal.  In contrast, total precipitation was only 60 to 70 percent of normal in central and southwestern North Korea since November.  The driest weather was reported along the east coast, which received only 25 percent of normal precipitation through February.  However, this region has received beneficial rainfall in the past month, raising its seasonal total to about 30 percent.

Soil Moisture is Declining, But Adequate For Now

Soil moisture levels dropped during the dry spell in November and December but rose again following widespread snow in January.  Drier weather in February and March, combined with above-normal temperatures, caused soil moisture to decline again. Although North Korea's average soil moisture at the end of March 2002 was lower than the previous two years, it is not a matter of great concern.  In western North Korea, the most important grain-production region, soil moisture levels are generally above 50 percent, which is adequate for vegetative winter crops and early summer crop planting.  In the less-important crop areas of eastern North Korea, soil moisture levels are lower but not depleted.  However, as temperatures rise and winter crops reach the reproductive and grain-fill stages, the need for additional moisture will increase sharply. Summer crop planting and germination would also be affected if April showers remain below-normal and soil moisture continues to decline.

Precipitation and Soil Moisture Data for Selected Locations in North Korea

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202)690-0133.

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