 |
|
|
|
Table 1 - Statistical Performance of the Four Forecasting Methods
Excel |
CSV
| RMSE |
597.8 |
904.5 |
637.7 |
471.5 |
| RMSE |
(154.7) |
(158.8) |
(184.7) |
(107.9) |
| MAPE |
9.16 |
13.92 |
9.41 |
7.59 |
| MAPE |
(1.96) |
(2.33) |
(2.08) |
(2.11) |
| Rank correlation of original |
0.768 |
0.59 |
0.757 |
0.809 |
| Rank correlation of original |
(0.087) |
(0.093) |
(0.090) |
(0.071) |
| Significant number of positive errors, 5% |
4 |
11 |
0 |
56 |
| Significant number of positive errors, 10% |
11 |
22 |
4 |
70 |
| Wilcoxon location on original, 5% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
| Wilcoxon location on original, 10% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
| Wilcoxon variance on original1, 5% |
0 |
2 |
0 |
14 |
| Wilcoxon variance on original1, 10% |
0 |
4 |
0 |
34 |
| Rank correlation of difference |
0.064 |
0.113 |
0.082 |
0.098 |
| Rank correlation of difference |
(0.138) |
(0.130) |
(0.121) |
(0.119) |
| p(Bin)<5% (much better than chance), p(χ2)>10% |
19 |
54 |
21 |
17 |
| p(Bin)<5% (much better than chance), p(χ2)>5%
|
19 |
51 |
19 |
15 |
| p(Bin)<10% (better than chance), p(χ2)>10% |
28 |
76 |
30 |
30 |
| p(Bin)<10% (better than chance), p(χ2)>5%
|
28 |
72 |
25 |
28 |
1 The number of days on which this test is valid is 184 minus the number of
days on which there was a significant difference in the locations of the original
and forecast series, e.g., for nonlinear at the 10% level this is 184-7=177
days.
|
|
|
|
|
