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Table 7: Mean Absolute Value (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro and Bus Tickets and Travel Cards for Alternative Models

Forecasting periods: 2000-2002

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  SMT 10MT SBT 10BT TC JTC
Causal DHR Causal DHR Causal DHR Causal DHR Causal DHR Causal DHR
h = 1                        
MAE 0.031 0.035 0.039 0.041 0.039 0.046 0.027 0.041 0.025 0.031 0.029 0.034
RMSE 0.037 0.043 0.049 0.054 0.059 0.066 0.034 0.051 0.043 0.041 0.039 0.043
h = 6                        
MAE 0.046 0.054 0.065 0.055 0.085 0.09 0.029 0.038 0.036 0.044 0.026 0.04
RMSE 0.051 0.066 0.085 0.067 0.119 0.113 0.038 0.05 0.059 0.053 0.03 0.046
h = 12                        
MAE 0.078 0.085 0.103 0.075 0.115 0.112 0.027 0.04 0.027 0.043 0.022 0.029
RMSE 0.088 0.1 0.123 0.089 0.142 0.128 0.034 0.05 0.051 0.051 0.03 0.036
h = 24                        
MAE 0.156 0.233 0.13 0.107 0.14 0.268 0.032 0.064 0.073 0.074 0.075 0.049
RMSE 0.174 0.265 0.18 0.134 0.164 0.287 0.039 0.085 0.144 0.096 0.095 0.059
Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA) • U.S. Department of Transportation (US DOT)
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