Figure 5 Smoothed Components of the Late Arrivals Series Generated by STAMP,,,,
,Arrive Late,Smoothed Trend,Smoothed Seasonal Component,Smoothed Irregular Components
Sep-87,22.91274,25.5771495,-4.413217197,1.7488077
Oct-87,19.60947,24.99838954,-3.288212977,-2.100706565
Nov-87,23.84278,25.11484887,-1.309606614,0.037537743
Dec-87,33.48978,25.21888525,5.249742257,3.021152489
Jan-88,30.64676,24.32308496,4.64730572,1.67636932
Feb-88,25.23977,22.87249786,2.370240333,-0.002968197
Mar-88,21.10317,21.42289308,1.138780981,-1.458504061
Apr-88,17.32967,20.45597358,-2.661935513,-0.464368069
May-88,18.03329,19.64273458,-2.947902721,1.338458137
Jun-88,15.61631,18.38653895,1.471812214,-4.242041166
Jul-88,18.45969,18.53422755,-0.152692852,0.078155299
Aug-88,17.04326,18.65605101,-0.104313632,-1.50847738
Sep-88,14.37269,19.2770982,-4.413217197,-0.491191003
Oct-88,16.59565,20.06070282,-3.288212977,-0.17683984
Nov-88,22.33825,20.90283177,-1.309606614,2.745024839
Dec-88,23.86316,20.83650725,5.249742257,-2.223089502
Jan-89,23.31793,21.50590408,4.64730572,-2.835279796
Feb-89,27.57885,23.11362386,2.370240333,2.094985806
Mar-89,30.38276,24.02801762,1.138780981,5.215961396
Apr-89,16.60511,23.21621268,-2.661935513,-3.949167168
May-89,20.53874,23.71136665,-2.947902721,-0.224723932
Jun-89,27.82352,24.28089199,1.471812214,2.070815798
Jul-89,23.12581,24.16509025,-0.152692852,-0.886587401
Aug-89,25.36865,24.34270059,-0.104313632,1.130263045
Sep-89,20.3863,24.14625551,-4.413217197,0.653261692
Oct-89,20.5397,23.73361644,-3.288212977,0.094296538
Nov-89,21.97807,23.28977036,-1.309606614,-0.002093747
Dec-89,29.80139,22.8466172,5.249742257,1.705030544
Jan-90,22.39621,21.83919193,4.64730572,-4.090287653
Feb-90,26.77955,22.18542876,2.370240333,2.223880903
Mar-90,23.45607,21.79568232,1.138780981,0.521606695
Apr-90,17.78644,21.23331252,-2.661935513,-0.784937007
May-90,19.1577,20.93071405,-2.947902721,1.174888672
Jun-90,19.93781,20.23929152,1.471812214,-1.773293729
Jul-90,18.9418,20.13473248,-0.152692852,-1.040239625
Aug-90,21.4632,20.37443601,-0.104313632,1.193077621
Sep-90,15.58588,20.21929593,-4.413217197,-0.220198735
Oct-90,17.5806,20.13702962,-3.288212977,0.731783354
Nov-90,15.42839,19.81258294,-1.309606614,-3.074586328
Dec-90,29.6969,20.50565662,5.249742257,3.941501121
Jan-91,26.16719,19.89430843,4.64730572,1.625575848
Feb-91,18.15044,18.74498331,2.370240333,-2.964783641
Mar-91,19.99399,18.57683985,1.138780981,0.278369171
Apr-91,16.62427,18.31657138,-2.661935513,0.969634137
May-91,16.49834,17.7354069,-2.947902721,1.710835826
Jun-91,14.71894,16.58804908,1.471812214,-3.340921293
Jul-91,15.50569,16.54635397,-0.152692852,-0.887971119
Aug-91,16.72981,16.79852887,-0.104313632,0.035594765
Sep-91,12.09603,17.03892384,-4.413217197,-0.529676639
Oct-91,16.60775,17.45461288,-3.288212977,2.441350097
Nov-91,17.28484,17.06234821,-1.309606614,1.532098401
Dec-91,20.04338,16.16304255,5.249742257,-1.369404804
Jan-92,18.60818,15.71693517,4.64730572,-1.756060894
Feb-92,16.5733,15.85198817,2.370240333,-1.6489285
Mar-92,19.09917,16.53274655,1.138780981,1.42764247
Apr-92,13.40281,16.74103315,-2.661935513,-0.676287634
May-92,13.44588,17.17313406,-2.947902721,-0.779351341
Jun-92,18.96266,17.86315776,1.471812214,-0.372309973
Jul-92,20.22239,18.67639575,-0.152692852,1.698687103
Aug-92,19.66137,18.92746097,-0.104313632,0.838222665
Sep-92,14.80782,18.90112021,-4.413217197,0.31991699
Oct-92,14.18532,18.76890437,-3.288212977,-1.295371396
Nov-92,17.31979,19.06538581,-1.309606614,-0.435989198
Dec-92,26.10514,19.50615589,5.249742257,1.34924185
Jan-93,22.37419,19.50040052,4.64730572,-1.77351624
Feb-93,23.14702,20.08158228,2.370240333,0.695197387
Mar-93,26.39383,20.43269163,1.138780981,4.822357391
Apr-93,17.08054,19.18786373,-2.661935513,0.554611784
May-93,12.89027,17.75948958,-2.947902721,-1.92131686
Jun-93,16.75369,16.96696651,1.471812214,-1.685088724
Jul-93,13.94117,16.73211589,-0.152692852,-2.638253038
Aug-93,15.87771,17.37038311,-0.104313632,-1.388359481
Sep-93,15.36926,18.46812159,-4.413217197,1.314355604
Oct-93,16.96058,19.13088006,-3.288212977,1.117912913
Nov-93,18.82447,19.42367034,-1.309606614,0.710406274
Dec-93,21.38893,19.48135489,5.249742257,-3.342167147
Jan-94,29.53374,20.64511446,4.64730572,4.241319823
Feb-94,26.16926,20.40522852,2.370240333,3.39379115
Mar-94,17.4361,19.04218283,1.138780981,-2.744863814
Apr-94,16.97289,18.58753734,-2.661935513,1.04728817
May-94,12.3694,17.7862966,-2.947902721,-2.468993875
Jun-94,18.23044,17.80215814,1.471812214,-1.043530357
Jul-94,20.5469,18.16337132,-0.152692852,2.536221536
Aug-94,16.24546,17.68523351,-0.104313632,-1.335459875
Sep-94,12.04843,17.64906007,-4.413217197,-1.187412872
Oct-94,14.07329,18.00585552,-3.288212977,-0.644352544
Nov-94,19.2489,18.57589652,-1.309606614,1.982610096
Dec-94,20.74818,18.48980172,5.249742257,-2.991363977
Jan-95,26.17259,19.39368522,4.64730572,2.131599055
Feb-95,21.09096,19.59212572,2.370240333,-0.87140605
Mar-95,20.70214,20.07895408,1.138780981,-0.51559506
Apr-95,18.69618,20.73641628,-2.661935513,0.621699232
May-95,19.32279,21.18812995,-2.947902721,1.082562772
Jun-95,24.0586,21.28157439,1.471812214,1.305213396
Jul-95,19.91882,20.9430644,-0.152692852,-0.871551543
Aug-95,20.14525,20.89299042,-0.104313632,-0.643426788
Sep-95,14.41548,21.05585561,-4.413217197,-2.227158416
Oct-95,17.90736,21.95578876,-3.288212977,-0.760215779
Nov-95,22.14985,23.10731185,-1.309606614,0.35214476
Dec-95,32.34025,24.14229424,5.249742257,2.948213499
Jan-96,37.33029,24.20157879,4.64730572,1.16288E-15
Feb-96,28.09632,24.26086333,2.370240333,1.465216341
Mar-96,24.06193,23.83524118,1.138780981,-0.912092165
Apr-96,19.81826,23.71147179,-2.661935513,-1.231276281
May-96,21.08157,23.99518769,-2.947902721,0.034285031
Jun-96,25.3321,24.26755711,1.471812214,-0.407269325
Jul-96,24.71486,24.67471046,-0.152692852,0.192842388
Aug-96,25.30987,25.01804351,-0.104313632,0.396140126
Sep-96,21.30936,25.23027577,-4.413217197,0.492301424
Oct-96,22.81499,25.27958312,-3.288212977,0.823619853
Nov-96,22.08565,25.05631723,-1.309606614,-1.661060616
Dec-96,33.37434,25.38277179,5.249742257,2.74182595
Jan-97,31.59371,24.80183153,4.64730572,2.144572753
Feb-97,24.78564,23.51115466,2.370240333,-1.095754994
Mar-97,21.90197,22.58311293,1.138780981,-1.819923908
Apr-97,20.15363,22.25736673,-2.661935513,0.558198779
May-97,16.84206,21.74688719,-2.947902721,-1.956924473
Jun-97,23.86491,21.88404291,1.471812214,0.509054879
Jul-97,22.50311,21.85272922,-0.152692852,0.803073627
Aug-97,21.43534,21.55564198,-0.104313632,-0.015988345
Sep-97,14.96903,21.263846,-4.413217197,-1.881598803
Oct-97,18.4526,21.59475659,-3.288212977,0.146056388
Nov-97,21.77757,21.87733048,-1.309606614,1.209846133
Dec-97,26.46439,21.7595113,5.249742257,-0.544863554
Jan-98,24.94751,21.82201223,4.64730572,-1.521807948
Feb-98,24.60783,22.38814858,2.370240333,-0.150558911
Mar-98,24.14842,23.00411172,1.138780981,0.005527303
Apr-98,20.87773,23.61824562,-2.661935513,-0.078580104
May-98,22.5176,24.25838525,-2.947902721,1.207117475
Jun-98,29.58356,24.49903484,1.471812214,3.612712949
Jul-98,21.14227,23.54407351,-0.152692852,-2.249110656
Aug-98,22.96688,23.33344512,-0.104313632,-0.26225149
Sep-98,21.06371,23.20960767,-4.413217197,2.267319524
Oct-98,18.25467,22.33541114,-3.288212977,-0.792528162
Nov-98,16.71439,21.7234982,-1.309606614,-3.699501582
Dec-98,26.78296,22.33591848,5.249742257,-0.802700734
Jan-99,32.33571,23.21398892,4.64730572,4.474415365
Feb-99,21.09442,22.61127194,2.370240333,-3.887092271
Mar-99,21.90998,23.29497047,1.138780981,-2.523771451
Apr-99,24.27056,24.81389969,-2.661935513,2.118595827
May-99,23.81475,25.63168925,-2.947902721,1.130963474
Jun-99,29.12348,26.07519159,1.471812214,1.576476196
Jul-99,28.93194,25.99696631,-0.152692852,3.087666545
Aug-99,23.88661,24.89689182,-0.104313632,-0.90596819
Sep-99,20.65286,24.09664339,-4.413217197,0.969433808
Oct-99,19.94025,22.97556525,-3.288212977,0.252897731
Nov-99,18.58512,21.77079175,-1.309606614,-1.876065136
Dec-99,22.00326,21.18689348,5.249742257,-4.433375735
Jan-00,26.25357,22.07020074,4.64730572,-0.463936463
Feb-00,25.23988,23.10704567,2.370240333,-0.237406003
Mar-00,23.01167,24.22245904,1.138780981,-2.349570017
Apr-00,24.63007,26.11545191,-2.661935513,1.176553601
May-00,25.74623,27.61906973,-2.947902721,1.075062996
Jun-00,33.66186,28.76690033,1.471812214,3.423147457
Jul-00,29.69471,28.78185585,-0.152692852,1.065547002
Aug-00,30.03586,28.44417344,-0.104313632,1.696000195
Sep-00,21.90383,27.54520747,-4.413217197,-1.228160275
Oct-00,23.92658,27.05269556,-3.288212977,0.162097413
Nov-00,27.37656,26.50653825,-1.309606614,2.179628359
Dec-00,37.59103,25.23904285,5.249742257,-2.66454E-15
Jan-01,24.76589,23.97154745,4.64730572,-3.85296317
Feb-01,27.33524,23.97917269,2.370240333,0.98582698
Mar-01,24.85218,23.66054297,1.138780981,0.052856051
Apr-01,20.80052,23.32442078,-2.661935513,0.138034733
May-01,18.59185,22.94261662,-2.947902721,-1.402863902
Jun-01,24.86393,23.0250839,1.471812214,0.367033891
Jul-01,21.94491,22.98608297,-0.152692852,-0.888480119
Aug-01,23.90744,23.2411205,-0.104313632,0.770633131
"Note: The first panel shows the observed series and the fitted trend, the second shows the seasonal component, and the third shows the irregular component.",,,,
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