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000 FXUS64 KMOB 081031 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 531 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2008 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...THE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINS WE SAW YESTERDAY AT SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT OCCUR. A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS CAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 170 M2/S2. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE EAST. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS MAY CREEP IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG THAT MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWERS 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. /22 .LONG TERM (THURSDAY AND TUESDAY)...UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE OVER THE GULF STATES. MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS THURSDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF AND BECOME DETACHED FROM THE WESTERLIES OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON FRIDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD AND NOSE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THIS UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS COULD HEAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. CONSIDERING THIS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A TAP OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UNDER DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SIGNAL SHOWS A WESTWARD ADVANCE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.6 TO JUST UNDER 2 INCHES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND OUR NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WITH INSTABILITY <500 J/KG COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM APPROACH OF DECAYING MID LEVEL SHEAR ZONE...WILL MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOLLOWED THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES. MINS=> LOWER 60S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S COAST. MAXES=> LOWER/MID 80S. THIS IS 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE NORMALLY EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /10 && .AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THE THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AVIATION FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TODAY. /22 && .MARINE...AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. /22 && .FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST TO FORM LATER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF POOR DISPERSIONS AND RECENT RAINS. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WHILE AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL BE FAIR TO AVERAGE MOST AREAS TODAY AND THURSDAY. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 79 60 83 61 / 30 10 00 00 PENSACOLA 81 63 80 63 / 60 10 00 00 DESTIN 80 67 80 67 / 70 20 00 00 EVERGREEN 78 58 82 58 / 60 20 00 00 WAYNESBORO 77 56 82 57 / 20 10 00 00 CAMDEN 77 57 81 59 / 60 20 00 00 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$