000
FXUS62 KMFL 081222
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
822 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2008

.AVIATION...
SHRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...
AND WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN CONCERN FOR AFTERNOON TSRA
AT KPBI/KAPF...GIVEN S/SE STEERING FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS AT EAST COAST SITES TO GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM THE SE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GULF COAST SEA BREEZE RESULTING IN SW FLOW
AT KAPF AFTER 18Z.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2008/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS
S-CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER SE U.S. WILL ENHANCE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SHWRS/STORMS
MOVING MAINLY TOWARD EASTERN SECTIONS/METRO AREAS ONCE THEY
DEVELOP. ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT PW VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH
AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE EAST TO WESTERN ATLC
OFF THE CAROLINAS DRAGGING A CDFNT THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW
LVL WIND FLOW SHOULD SHIFT TO SE/S STILL INJECTING MOISTURE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. WL KEEP SCT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, HOWEVER,
BELIEVE THIS FNT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND STALL AS THE POLAR
JET LIFTS NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE LOOSES SUPPORT AND
BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A M/U LVL RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CUTOFF LOW WILL FORCE IT TO MOVE BACK
SOUTHWEST KEEPING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER MAINLAND S. FL. AT THE
SAME TIME A RATHER VIGOROUS RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC INCREASING THE LOW LVL EASTERLIES AND, THEREFORE, LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WL INDICATE SCT POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD ESPECIALLY OVER ERN AREAS WHERE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WILL
THE STRONGEST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE SFC ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE OVER MAINLAND S. FLORIDA, THE M/U
LVL RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE GULF OF MEX NEWD THROUGH
EASTERN SEA BOARD AND WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS PRECIP BY THE WAY OF
STG SUBSIDENCE. CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL THEREFORE
DEPEND ON WHICH FEATURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT ONE. WL GO CLOSE TO
CLIMO AND KEEP LOW SCT POPS MAINLY AFTERNOON INTERIOR WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF NIGHTTIME SHOWERS.

MARINE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 15 KTS FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTING
TO SE/S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT SHIFTING TO EAST AGAIN BY
FRIDAY. LIKEWISE, SEAS WILL REMAIN AOB 4 FEET. HOWEVER, A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AND SEAS IS EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUES TO BUILD
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  75  88  75 / 50 30 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  77  87  77 / 40 30 50 20
MIAMI            87  76  88  76 / 40 30 50 20
NAPLES           89  74  88  73 / 40 20 40 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD