Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 08:52:55 -0500 (CDT)
From: Paul J Roebber <roebber@csd.uwm.edu>
To: eegle-all@wings.glerl.noaa.gov
Subject: Forecast for "Event"
MIME-Version: 1.0

I received the following e-mails this morning:

1)

Dave S.:

The GLCFS wave model is forecasting 14 foot waves for Lake Michigan this
weekend.  What's your model say?  Should we put up a 'plume alert'?

2)

Brian E:

The most recent forecast is for 40--55 kt winds and 20 foot waves tonight
in southern Lake Michigan. This is a 1998 scale storm.

This is just to alert you - we will have an improved forecast by
mid-afternoon. We have the RV Shenehon next week scheduled to go to St Joe
-
think about whether you might want anything from this potentially large
event.

I will update everyone by 15:00

**************************

My forecast:

HEY! HAVEN'T YOU BEEN READING MY DAILY FORECASTS (SEE THIS PAST WEEK IN
THE ARCHIVE)! YES, IT IS A BIG WIND EVENT! However, I differ with Brian in
that I don't think it quite matches the 1998 storm (for one thing, a
little bit faster) - still, it is a strong one.

Specifics:

N-NE winds this morning at 20 knots increasing quickly to 35-40 knots
through the day (note: these are SUSTAINED winds, not gusts, which will be
higher) and staying on that order overnight. Winds dropping rapidly
tomorrow. Given the fetch and the strong, sustained winds, there is every
reason to expect high waves and lots of resuspension.

Paul Roebber