No. 03 - 01
May 2003

HOT JOBS FOR THE 21^st CENTURY

Over the 2000-2010 period, total employment is projected to increase by 22.2 million jobs. From jobs in farming, fishing, and forestry to jobs in management, business, and finance, every major occupational group will experience some amount of job growth. Smaller employment gains, like those projected in production occupations (750,000 jobs) and those in installation, maintenance, and repair occupations (662,000 jobs) will be dwarfed by the gains expected in professional and related occupations (7.0 million jobs) and those in service occupations (5.1 million jobs).

In addition to the employment gains mentioned above, there will also be increases in labor force participation over the 2000-2010 period. The number of women in the labor force is projected to increase from 65.6 million in 2000 to 75.5 million in 2010--an increase of 15.1 percent. The number of men in the labor force is projected to increase from 75.2 million in 2000 to 82.2 million in 2010--a 9.3 percent increase. By 2010, women are projected to account for 48 percent of the total labor force.

As women's share of the labor force continues to climb, it is important for women to be aware of the jobs that will have the fastest growth, the jobs with the largest numerical increases, and the education and training necessary to secure one of these jobs. Fastest job growth refers to the percentage change in employment within a particular occupation over a specific period of time. Numerical job growth refers to the total number of jobs created within an occupation over a specific period of time.

The pay offered by these growth occupations should also be considered when choosing a job or career. While wage projections by occupations are not available, a look at the median weekly earnings of wage and salary workers who usually work full time, by occupation, provides additional job resource information.

Table 1 shows employment by major occupational groups in 2000 and projections for 2010. Table 2 shows the occupations with the fastest job growth over the 2000-2010 period. Table 3 shows the occupations with the largest numerical job growth over the 2000-2010 period. Table 4 shows the median weekly earnings in 2001 for some of the occupations expected to have fast job growth or large numerical job growth over the 2000-2010 period. If employment is projected to increase 36 percent or more, a job is considered to grow much faster than average; an increase of 21 to 35 percent, faster than average; an increase of 10 to 20 percent, growth about as fast as average; an increase of 3 to 9 percent, more slowly than average; an increase of zero to 2 percent, little or no change; and a decrease of 1 percent or more, a decline (see Table 1).

Table 1
Employment by Major Occupational Group, 2000 and Projected 2010
(numbers in thousands)
Text Version

The occupational groups expected to add at least 2 million new jobs while displaying at least average job growth between 2000 and 2010 are: professional and related occupations; service occupations; and management, business, and financial occupations.

Of all the major occupational groups (see Table 1), professional and related occupations is projected to increase the fastest (26.0 percent) and add the largest number of jobs (7 million) between 2000 and 2010. The majority of this job growth comes from three subgroups: computer and mathematical occupations; health care practitioners and technical occupations; and education, training, and library occupations. Examples of occupations within these three areas are: computer software engineers; database administrators; desktop publishers; medical records and health information technicians; and special education, preschool, and elementary teachers. Among health care practitioners, registered nurses--by far the largest occupation in this subgroup--should account for more than a third of all new jobs.

Service occupations will have the second largest numerical job growth (5.1 million jobs) and the second highest rate of job growth (19.5 percent). The subgroups that will account for most of this job growth are food preparation and serving related occupations (1.6 million jobs); health care support occupations (1.1 million jobs); personal care and service occupations (856,000 jobs); protective service occupations (809,000); and building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations (779,000 jobs).

Management, business, and financial occupations will grow by 2.1 million jobs. Within this group, management occupations will add nearly 1.3 million jobs and business and financial operations occupations will add 845,000 jobs.

Sales and related occupations are projected to grow about as fast as average (11.9 percent) with a total job increase of about 1.9 million jobs. The largest numerical job growth in this group, however, is in occupations with fairly low median weekly earnings--such as cashiers, retail salespersons, and supervisors, sales workers. Median weekly earnings for these three occupations ranged from $299-$618 in 2001.

Jobs in office and administrative support occupations are projected to increase by 2.2 million, however, they will grow more slowly than average. The largest numerical job growth is expected in customer service representatives, receptionists and information clerks, and bill and account collectors. This group also contains some of the occupations with the largest job declines--order clerks, 71,000 jobs; tellers, 59,000 jobs; insurance claims and policy processing clerks, 58,000 jobs; and word processors and typists, 57,000 jobs.

Average job growth is projected for transportation and material moving occupations. Of the 1.5 million jobs that will be created in this group, nearly 40 percent will be for driver/sales workers and truck drivers--heavy, tractor-trailer, light, and delivery. Water transportation occupations will grow much slower than average and railroad occupations will show an 18.5 percent decline in jobs over the 2000-2010 period.

As shown in Table 2, of the 30 occupations with the fastest job growth over the 2000-2010 period, 17 are health-related and 10 are computer-related occupations. Some of the fast-growing health-related occupations include personal and home care aides; physician assistants; medical assistants; medical records and health information technicians; dental hygienists; speech-language pathologists; and veterinary technologists and technicians. Some of the fast-growing computer-related occupations include computer software engineers, applications and systems software; network and computer systems administrators; desktop publishers; database administrators; and computer systems analysts.

Of the 30 occupations with the largest numerical job growth over the 2000-2010 period (see Table 3), some of the health-related occupations are registered nurses, home health aides, and medical assistants. Examples of the computer-related occupations are computer support specialists, computer software applications engineers, and computer systems analysts. Within the education, training, and library occupations, some are postsecondary teachers, teacher assistants, and elementary school teachers, except special education.

Table 2
Occupations with the Fastest Job Growth, 2000-2010
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Text Version

Table 3
Selected Occupations with the Largest Job Growth, 2000-2010
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Text Version

The median weekly earnings of all wage and salary workers who worked full time in 2001 was $597 for both sexes. Even though an occupation may be projected to show faster than average growth and/or a large numerical increase, the median weekly earnings of that occupation could be much lower than the average for all workers (see Table 4).

Table 4
2001 Median Weekly Earnings of Selected Growth Occupations
Text Version

Conclusion

Among the major occupational groups (as shown in Table 1), employment in professional and related occupations and service occupations will increase the fastest and add the most jobs between the 2000-2010 period. While professional and related occupations require the most education and training and offer the highest earnings, service occupations require the least amount of training and offer some of the lowest earnings. More detailed information about any occupation, including training and resources, mentioned in this report can be found in the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics' publication, "Occupational Outlook Handbook," 2002-2003 Edition. It can also be accessed on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/oco/home.htm.