The New Mexico summer thunderstorm season has come to a gradual end, just about on schedule. The precipitation focus turns toward the possibility of tropical moisture intrusions due to the remnants of a tropical storm or depression. About three out of every five years, such remnants can work their way northeast into New Mexico from the Gulf of California or from the southeast due to the westward movement of a hurricane that made landfall along the Texas Gulf coast. These intrusions are most likely in September, however, the weather pattern from early September through early October is generally dominated by mostly dry conditions with only isolated convective showers and thunderstorms. The first true cold fronts of the fall season can also bring showers, mainly to the eastern and northern parts of the state.

As we transition to autumn, drought concerns are mainly limited to northeast New Mexico.

The current U.S. Drought Monitor map depiction of drought for New Mexico can be found at:
http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?NM,W

Moisture from summer showers and thunderstorms has allowed any fire related restrictions to be lifted from all state and federal recreational lands.

The Navajo Nation retains fire restrictions on the reservation in northwest New Mexico where campfires are permitted only in developed recreation areas. Smoking and fireworks are prohibited. The Zuni Pueblo entered restrictions on May 11. Most of the Pueblos in New Mexico remain under Stage 1 fire restrictions.

 

The near-uniformly dry conditions this spring left several regions with significant precipitation deficits through the first six months of this year. Drought conditions extended across much of the southeast two-thirds of the state by early July. Despite the near normal to abundant summer precipitation in most areas of the state, parts of Union County and far northeast Colfax County still reported moderate precipitation deficits by early September.

A few precipitation statistics for select locations through the first 8 months of 2008:

The monsoon season activity of daily scattered showers and thunderstorms has faded away. The onset of westerly winds aloft tends to bring drier and cooler air to much of New Mexico.

La Niña conditions, which were primarily responsible for the meager spring precipitation reported across much of New Mexico, had faded to ENSO neutral conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean regions by mid summer. ENSO neutral conditions are expected to persist through the end of 2008. Looking beyond the end of 2008, a historical tendency for multi-year La Niña episodes would imply that a return to weak La Niña conditions is possible.

For the latest weather forecast for the northern two thirds of New Mexico, please see the NWS WFO Albuquerque Forecast Map.

Reservoir storage is above normal at Abiquiu Lake, El Vado Lake, and Costilla Lake, while water levels were close to normal at Eagle Nest, Navajo Lake, and Heron Lake.

Well below normal storage persists at Conchas Lake, Elephant Butte Lake, Bluewater Lake, Santa Rosa Lake, and Sumner Lake.

This product will be updated in late September or sooner if necessary in response to significant changes in weather, water supply, or drought conditions.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the NOAA National Weather Service and National Climatic Data Center, the USDA, State and Regional Climate Centers and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has been gather from the NWS and FAA observations sites, state cooperative extension services, the U.S. Geological Survey and other government agencies.