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HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998
 
DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER
AND WITH T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...MADELINE IS
UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  PERHAPS A BETTER MEASURE OF THE
INTENSITY WILL BE PROVIDED SHORTLY BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WHO
ARE NOW ARRIVING AT THE SYSTEM.  RECON FOUND 60 KT FLT LEVEL WINDS
ON NORTHEAST SIDE AND SHOULD FIND HIGHER WINDS ON SOUTHWEST SIDE
WHERE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS.
 
MADELINE APPEARS TO BE HEADING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AROUND
4 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS LOCATED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LARGE-SCALE E-W RIDGE AXIS.  THE 12Z AVN SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH NEARING THE BAJA PENINSULA WITHIN 36 HOURS...BUT...
INTERESTINGLY...SHOWS NO MOTION FOR MADELINE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THEN LOSES TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO 6 HOURS AGO AND TO THE CURRENT GFDL...BAMM...P91E...
AND CLIP.  THEY INDICATE A NORTHWARD MOTION OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
 
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS REMAIN A THREAT.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 20.2N 107.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 20.9N 106.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N 106.8W    75 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 23.1N 106.8W    75 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 24.3N 106.8W    50 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     20/1800Z 26.5N 106.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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