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TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998
 
A LARGE CDO PATTERN IS DEVELOPING OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A
CORE AREA OF CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN -80C.  DVORAK T-
NUMBERS WERE UP TO 2.5 AT 1200 UTC...AND THE WIND SPEED AT ADVISORY
TIME IS ESTIMATED AS 45 KT FOR WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM MADELINE.
 
THE NNW HEADING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS RETAINED...ALTHOUGH
THE CLOUD PATTERN MAKES IDENTIFYING THE CENTER RATHER DIFFICULT.
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH BYPASSING
MADELINE...BUT A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NE.  MOST GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOW THIS.  THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THAT WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOW
REQUIRED.
  
THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND FORECAST MOVEMENT AND WINDS
ALOFT SUGGEST THAT MADELINE COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS TO A
CONSIDERABLE AREA OVER MEXICO...AND CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TO THE U.S. SOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 19.5N 108.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 108.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 108.8W    65 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 23.4N 108.6W    75 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 25.1N 108.1W    75 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 28.0N 106.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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