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HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN THE SAME AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND NO CHANGE IS MADE TO INTENSITY...90 KTS...973 MB. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE
OUTPUT FROM SHIPS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/07 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE IS FORECAST AS
THE SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  
 
A THREAT TO SOUTHERN MEXICO STILL REMAINS AND THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS UNTIL
LESTERS THREAT DIMINISHES.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 14.3N  99.7W    90 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.3N 100.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 14.5N 102.2W    95 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 14.7N 103.7W    95 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N 105.7W    95 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 109.6W    95 KTS
 
 
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