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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 15 1998
 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS CAME BACK UP TO 2.0 AT 1800Z...BUT CONVECTION HAS
SUBSEQUENTLY FIZZLED AGAIN.  THE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KT
AND LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST.
 
KAY HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...PERHAPS A SW DRIFT.
LITTLE OVERALL MOTION WILL BE SHOWN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN
CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.  OTHER MODELS SHOW SCATTERED
HEADINGS BUT GENERALLY A SLOW MOTION.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS
 
 
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