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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI OCT 02 1998
 
ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE PICTURES PUTS THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY LOCATION...NEAR 21N109W.  SHIP REPORTS 50-75 NMI TO THE N
AND NE OF THAT POSITION...HOWEVER...SHOW SW WINDS AT BOTH LOCATIONS.
 
THIS IMPLIES THAT EITHER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXCEEDINGLY
SMALL...THERE IS NO SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER...OR THE CENTER IS
LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AND WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR A CENTER THAT IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE SHIP DATA.
 
WITH THE POOR ORGANIZATION CURRENTLY OBSERVED...NO INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE SHOWN FOR THE SHORT TERM.  THE GFDL AND UKMET DISSIPATE THE
TD NEARLY IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE SHIPS SCHEME
SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING BY THREE DAYS.  THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
SCATTERED HEADINGS...BUT A SLOW SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM STATIONARY.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 21.8N 109.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 21.8N 109.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 21.8N 109.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 21.8N 109.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.8N 109.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 21.8N 109.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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