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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 01 1998

THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING
AT THIS TIME.  BECAUSE T-NUMBERS REMAIN 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST
MODEL DOES NOT INTENSIFY THE DEPRESSION SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE GFDL
DISSIPATES IT BY 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND THE
OCEAN IS WARM...SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS SUGGESTED
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE.  MODELS
INDICATE TRACKS IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 20.8N 109.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N 109.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N 110.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 21.3N 110.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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