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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 1998

HOWARD HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
CONTINUE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE.  T-NUMBERS ARE SOLID 6.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY
AS HOWARD APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS
EXPECTED SINCE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 15.4N 112.2W   125 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 114.0W   125 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 116.0W   125 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W   110 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W   110 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 125.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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