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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING FOR 72 HOURS...INCLUDING THE
GFDL....AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT HOWARD HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO 80 KNOTS AND INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH SOME LEVELING OFF IS EXPECTED.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 12.5N 103.8W    85 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 13.3N 105.2W    90 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 107.1W   100 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.7N 108.9W   105 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.2N 110.6W   105 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 113.6W   100 KTS
 
 
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