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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 1998
 
GEORGETTE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND THERE ARE
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF WEAKENING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER AT THIS TIME. LATEST ERS2 ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT WINDS ARE
AROUND 45 KNOTS WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING.  THEREFORE
...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS.  SINCE GEORGETTE
IS OVER COOL WATERS IT SHOULD WEAKEN TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON
THIS GENERAL TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS BEST
DEPICTED BY BAM-SHALLOW.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 24.6N 125.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 25.4N 127.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 26.5N 129.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     17/1200Z 27.0N 131.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     18/0000Z 27.5N 134.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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