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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 1998
 
A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR WHERE
EXTRAPOLATION AND CONTINUITY WOULD PLACE THE CENTER AT 18Z.  HOWEVER
A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS HAS RECENTLY APPEARED TO THE SOUTH.  THIS COULD
BE THE CENTER...NOT AN EYE...OR IT COULD BE A SUCKER HOLE.  A
COMPROMISE INITIAL POSITION IS SELECTED WHICH GIVES AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 305/10.  THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF THE GRADUAL
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE LEFT.  MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS NOW SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD
TRACK EXCEPT THE LBAR BAROTROPIC MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
EVEN WITH THE SMALL CONVECTIVE BURST...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SHOW WEAKENING.  THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS GEORGETTE
MOVES OVER COLDER WATER.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 24.3N 125.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 25.1N 126.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 26.1N 128.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 27.0N 130.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     17/1800Z 27.8N 131.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     18/1800Z 28.5N 135.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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