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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 08 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 350/10.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST...EXCEPT THE LBAR AND DEEP BAM WHICH SHOW A
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION.  AND AGAIN THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
THE STORM EMBEDDED IN A LARGE 500-MB LOW WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY THE
CASE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LEANING A
LITTLE RIGHT OF CONCENSUS...AND SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND DECELLERATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

WITH A SMALL CDO...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.  WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON AS COLDER SSTS ARE ENCOUNTERED.

THE 200 MB WIND PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM
FRANK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. 
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 25.0N 113.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 26.4N 113.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 27.8N 114.9W    35 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 28.8N 116.4W    30 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 29.5N 118.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 30.5N 120.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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