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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 06 1998

THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...AND MAY IN FACT BE CLOSE TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN.  ESTELLE HAD BEEN PRODUCING A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT RECENTLY THIS ACTIVITY HAS WANED. 
ALTHOUGH SST DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...AS
ESTELLE APPROACHES 150W VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE DUE TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
THUS...ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 275/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD TRACK AS BEFORE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM MET. OFFICE MODEL FORECAST...WHICH HAS BEEN
DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH ESTELLE.

AS ESTELLE WILL CROSS 140W LONGITUDE IN A FEW HOURS...FUTURE
ADVISORIES ON THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.


PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 20.5N 139.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 20.7N 141.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N 144.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 21.3N 147.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N 149.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     09/1200Z 22.0N 154.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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