ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 1998
 
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC PREDICTION OF 6 HOURS AGO.  ESTELLE
HAS A CORE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AT ITS CENTER WITH A LARGE AREA OF
SURROUNDING CLOUDS AND RAINBANDS.  NO EYE IS APPARENT AS
YET...EXCEPT IN SSM/I IMAGES.  INITIAL WIND SPEED IS AGAIN 75 KT AND
THE MOTION IS 280/12 KT.

THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER CLOSELY CLUSTERED ALONG A W TO WNW TRACK AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN FORECAST FOR
THE E-W ORIENTED HIGH TO THE NORTH TO REMAIN THE CONTROLLING FEATURE
THROUGH 72 HOURS.  

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH
WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS TO OCCUR THEREAFTER.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 15.8N 111.4W    75 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 16.2N 113.3W    85 KTS
24HR VT     02/0000Z 16.7N 115.6W    90 KTS
36HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.3N 121.3W    85 KTS
72HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 127.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN