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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
THE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD AND ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS IGNORE THIS
FEATURE AND SHOW A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72
HOURS...EXCEPT THE AVIATION MODEL WHICH DEVELOPS A SOUTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE EYE FEATURE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE AS OF ABOUT 18Z.  THE WIND
SPEED IS DROPPED 5 KNOTS TO 100 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS AND A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER 23 DEGREE C WATER
BY 72 HOURS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 16.0N 122.2W   100 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 16.4N 123.5W   100 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N 125.6W    90 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.6N 127.8W    80 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.2N 130.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 134.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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