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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 1998
 
AN ISOLATED STRONG CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CYCLING
AROUND...CLOSE-IN...TO THE CENTER.  OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.  INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE IS NOW 45 KT...AS PROVIDED BY TAFB AND SAB.  THE TRACK HAS
LEANED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...NOW TOWARD 295/13 KT.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF
CELIA.  12Z AVN MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A GENERALLY WNW
TRACK FOR THE CELIA TO THE SOUTH OF THIS HIGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST.  THE SEVERAL MORE INTENSE
VORTICES SHOWN IN THE AVN INITIALIZATION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SHOULD BE IGNORED.
 
WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 21.8N 113.1W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 23.7N 117.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 24.7N 120.0W    25 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 25.5N 122.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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