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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUN 29 1998
 
GOES 9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BLAS CONTINUES AS
A LARGE WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LACKING DEEP
CONVECTION.  BLAS IS BECOMING INVOLVED WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WHICH IMPLIES THAT A DRIER..MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS BEING
ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION.  BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS...
AND BLAS IS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.  THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER...
THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE TRACKED IN THE TPC HIGH SEAS FORECAST IF
NECESSARY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND MAINTAINS THE
MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
GUINEY/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 18.2N 128.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 18.3N 130.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 132.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     01/1200Z 18.7N 134.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 137.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 142.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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