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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUN 25 1998
 
THERE IS NOTHING NEW TO ADD SINCE EVERYTHING HAS BEEN ALREADY SAID
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A WELL
DEFINED EYE...SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION. 
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 6.0 AND 7.0 DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS.  SO...WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 24
HOURS...AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND SUGGESTED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL.

BLAS IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS...290/10...AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH.  GUIDANCE
HAS NOT CHANGED SO...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 15.5N 107.3W   120 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 108.7W   120 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W   110 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 112.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.0N 119.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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