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TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 1998
 
BLAS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-
DEFINED AND STRONG BANDING FEATURE IN THE SHAPE OF THE NUMBER
6.  IT COULD MAKE IT TO HURRICANE INTENSITY LATER TODAY...BUT DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT YET SUPPORT INCREASING THE WIND
SPEED ABOVE 55 KT.  THE ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS HAS LED TO SOME
JUMPING AROUND OF THE ESTIMATED SATELLITE-DERIVED POSITION
ESTIMATES.  INITIAL MOTION IS CURRENTLY NEAR 300/11 KT.
 
THE 00Z MRF OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE LARGE WSW-ENE ORIENTED
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DESPITE THE
FORECAST PROGRESSION OF SEVERAL TROUGHS INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST.
HENCE...LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK HEADING OR SPEED IS SHOWN IN THE NHC
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK
MODELS AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR A MUCH SLOWER SPEED INDICATED BY THE
UKMET...AND THE 06Z GFDL RUN WHICH ENDS UP A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS 00Z FORECAST.
 
THE PATTERN ALSO CONTAINS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE OUTFLOW ALOFT FROM THE CYCLONE.  WITH WARM
WATERS AHEAD AND THIS ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.  SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL WATERS COULD
AFFECT BLAS THEREAFTER.

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 12.0N 100.3W    55 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 12.8N 101.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 13.8N 103.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.6N 105.6W    85 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.6N 107.6W    85 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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