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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/16.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE BAM AND GFDL MODELS SHOW
A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  BUT THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL
UNREALISTICALLY INITIALIZES A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 08N 92W AND
INTENSIFIES IT TO A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THIS COULD CAUSE
THE SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOVING THE SYSTEM
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD WITH SOME DECELERATION.

THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR WHERE THE CENTER IS
ASSUMED TO BE LOCATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE LAST COUPLE OF
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE BURST HAS PEAKED.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NEAR STORM STRENGTH WITH A 2.5 T NUMBER FROM TAFB AND
2.0 FROM SAB AND KGWC.  THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH
FOR THIS ADVISORY AND FORECAST TO A STORM IN 12 HOURS.  THE FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OVER SSTS BELOW 23 DEGREES C IN 72 HOURS
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REVERSE THE FORECAST OF SLOW STRENGTHENING
DURNING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO.

LAWRENCE
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 16.8N 108.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.6N 110.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N 116.1W    40 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N 118.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    25 KTS
 
 
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