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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 28 1998
 
NICOLE HAS NOW DECREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS
TO ABOUT 9 KNOTS...ANOTHER SIGN THAT IT IS ABOUT TO RECURVE. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 345/09.  LATEST AVN AND BAMS MODELS MOVE SYSTEM
EITHER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.  GFDL MODEL RECURVES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TOWARD THE EAST.  UKMET...BAMD AND NHC98 RECURVE SYSTEM TOWARD
NORTHEAST BUT AT VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND A LITTLE
SLOWER.

THE WESTERLY AND SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR NICOLES UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THUS THE WINDS REMAIN AT
50 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEARING...ALONG WITH THE MOVEMENT
OVER COOLER WATERS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND IT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 HOURS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 28.4N  46.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 29.8N  46.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 31.7N  44.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 33.3N  42.6W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     30/1800Z 35.0N  40.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     01/1800Z 38.0N  33.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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