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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM EST TUE NOV 24 1998
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LOW IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
HAS ACQUIRED A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND ITS CENTER. 
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THERE COULD VERY WELL BE WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.  THIS IS THE BASIS
FOR IDENTIFYING THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/10.  WITH A SMALL HIGH TO ITS
NORTH AND A TROUGH TO ITS WEST...THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE
SHALLOW AND DEEP BAM ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT SUGGESTING THAT STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SHORTLY AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN
BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
 
LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1200Z 27.7N  30.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 27.4N  31.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 27.0N  33.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 26.2N  35.6W    30 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 26.0N  37.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.0N  39.0W    20 KTS
 
 
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