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TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU NOV 05 1998
 
AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER ADVISORIES MITCH IS NOT VERY TROPICAL IN
APPEARANCE AND ITS TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
EAST OF THE CENTER WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...-80 DEG C...MOVING
ONSHORE BETWEEN TAMPA AND NAPLES.   

THE LAST NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PASS THROUGH MITCH REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...1500 FT...OF
59 KNOTS.  THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILE INDICATED 60 KNOTS AT 2000 FT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE RECON DATA. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT WHOLLY TROPICAL THE USUAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS DOES NOT APPLY.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
STRONG CONVECTION. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...DUE TO BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES...IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  MITCH WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 24 HOURS.

POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT MITCH IS MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 070/20 KNOTS.  THE CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED
NE-SW AND IS TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...AS EVIDENCED IN THE 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES...CONFIRMING
THE ONGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.  ALL THE DYNAMICAL TRACK
PREDICTION MODELS SHOW A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION 
WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS...AND REPRESENTS A SLIGHT LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE CENTER FEATURE IS NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT
FEATURE RATHER ONE SHOULD FOCUS ON THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...NAMELY
THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

THE WARNING FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
THE LOWERING OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR FLORIDA WILL BE ADDRESS
LATER TODAY.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 25.7N  82.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 27.0N  78.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 29.6N  73.7W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     06/1800Z 32.6N  67.4W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     07/0600Z 36.0N  60.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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