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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE OCT 27 1998

THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES SHOW A STEADY
RISE.  THIS INDICATES THAT MITCH HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. 
HOWEVER...DROPWINDSONDE DATA STILL SHOW HIGH WIND SPEEDS WHICH
SUPPORT CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH.  THE PROXIMITY TO THE LANDMASS OF
HONDURAS...CUTTING OFF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH...HAS
PROBABLY BEEN THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE WEAKENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AND IF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
REMAINS OVER WATER AS FORECAST MITCH WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FORMIDABLE
HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE EYE HAS EXHIBITED LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL HAS VACILLATED FROM RUN
TO RUN AS TO WHETHER MITCH WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE LATEST SUITE OF OBJECTIVE TRACK
FORECASTS SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING...HOWEVER THE
U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL INDICATES A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK.  IT
SUFFICES TO SAY THAT THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS ILL-DEFINED.  THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ONE...HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SHOULD BEAR IN
MIND THAT THESE FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN AND THAT THE DANGEROUS
AFFECTS OF THIS HURRICANE COVER A SIZEABLE AREA.  

ALTHOUGH THE STORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS ARE VERY
DANGEROUS...RAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM IS PARTICULARLY
LIFE-THREATENING.  FIFI...A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE IN 1974 WHICH MOVED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...CLAIMED OVER 3000 LIVES FROM
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 16.5N  85.6W   120 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N  86.0W   110 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 16.6N  86.8W   105 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N  87.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N  88.0W    90 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N  88.5W    60 KTS...INLAND
 
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