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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON OCT 26 1998
 
U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVES REPORTED A 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE WITH A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 923 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS.  SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED
AT 130 KNOTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED
AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CONTINUES TO
BE A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW THIS CHANGES WITH TIME IS CRUCIAL.
THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL INDICATES A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS DOES
THE UKMET MODEL.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE
WEAKENING AND INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD...BUT SLOW...TRACK.  IN ANY
CASE...THE MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
WHICH LEAVES THE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 16.5N  82.3W   130 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 16.6N  83.0W   135 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.8N  83.7W   135 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 17.1N  84.3W   130 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 17.6N  84.8W   125 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 18.5N  85.0W   115 KTS
 
 
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